Der USA Bären-Thread

Home Prices Rose 3.6% National in 2Q Vs. Year Ago' 10-City, 20-City Composite Both Up 1.1% in June from May: Case-Shiller

Spring buying pushed home prices up for a third straight month in most major U.S. cities in June. But the housing market remains shaky, and further price declines are expected this year.

 

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index shows prices  increased in June from May in 19 of the 20 cities tracked.

A separate figure shows prices rose 3.6 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous quarter. Those numbers aren't adjusted for seasonal factors.

Over the past 12 months, home prices have declined in all 20 cities after adjusting for seasonal factors.

 

Chicago, Minneapolis Washington and Boston posted the biggest monthly increases. Metro areas hit hardest by the housing crisis, including Las Vegas and Phoenix, reported small seasonal increases.

Was am 25. Mai noch als "witzig" bewertet wurde - nämlich ein Kursziel von 1250 im SP-500....

http://www.ariva.de/...A_Baeren_Thread_t283343?page=3267#jumppos81684

...  - wurde neun Wochen später mit 1100 sogar drastisch unterboten.

Trotz der nennenswerten Rallye seit dem Zwischentief in der ersten August-Woche steht der SPX zurzeit immer noch deutlich unter 1250 (aktuell bei 1210 eod).

Das ideale Short-Setup wäre ein Rücklauf an die 200-Tagelinie, die zurzeit bei 1259 läuft. Bis dahin fehlen nur noch 50 SPX-Punkte (oder ca. 4 %). Die Frage ist freilich, ob Mr. Market dies "zulässt", denn dann kämen auch etliche "Trapped Bulls" noch halbwegs heil aus ihren Posis raus.

Das bärische Idealszenario: Der SP-500 überwindet in einem kleinen false break kurz die 1260-Marke, um sich mit Bullen-Frischfleisch vollzusaugen, um dann krachend seinem finalen Kursziel von 800 bis Herbst entgegenzustürzen ;-)

"Chicago Fed-Präsident Evans: Technisch gesehen sind wir nicht in einer Rezession."

Dazu fällt mir ein netter Cartoon ein, den ich hier vor langer Zeit - noch vor dem 2008-Crash - schon einmal gepostet hatte:

chart an, kämpft mit der 200er

Stoc sieht man nicht, das die dreht

• Consumer Confidence Index Drops to 44.5 in August, Which Is the Lowest Reading Since April 2009

[Wawidu hatte den Link bereits gepostet, aber ohne Resonanz.]
 

From Green to Red – Is Credit Crunch 2.0 Imminent?

Posted By Satyajit Das (guest author) on August 28, 2011

Satyajit Das is author of Traders, Guns and Money: Knowns and unknowns in the dazzling world of derivatives [1] (August 2006) and Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk [2] (August 2011)

In Crosstown Traffic, Jimi Hendrix sang: “can’t you see my signals turn from green to red / And with you I can see a traffic jam straight up ahead.” In global financial markets, the signals have changed from green to red. But rather than a simple traffic jam, a full scale credit crash may be ahead.

In financial markets, facts never matter until they do but there are worrying indications.

Fact 1 – The European debt crisis has taken a turn for the worse.

There is a serious risk that even the half-baked bailout plan announced on 21 July 2011 cannot be implemented.

The sticking point is a demand for collateral for the second bailout package. Finland demanded and got Euro 500 million in cash as security against their Euro 1,400 million share of the second bailout package. Hearing of the ill-advised side deal between Greece and Finland, Austria, the Netherlands and Slovakia also are now demanding collateral, arguing that their banks were less exposed to Greece than their counterparts in Germany and France entitling them to special treatment. At least, one German parliamentarian has also asked the logical question, why Germany is not receiving similar collateral.

Of course, Greece, which does not have two Euros to rub together, doesn’t have this collateral and would need to borrow it.

Compounding the problem is Greece’s fall in Gross Domestic Production (“GDP”) was worse than forecast, even before the latest austerity measures become effective. The Greek economy has shrunk by around 15% since the crisis began. 2-year borrowing costs for Greece are now over 40%, pawnbroker levels. The next installment of Greece’s first bailout package is due to be released as at end September. Some members of the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) are already expressing deep misgivings about further assistance to Greece, in the light of the seeming inability of the country to meet its end of the bargain.

A disorderly unwind of the Greek debt problem cannot be ruled out. Ireland and Portugal remain in difficulty. Spain and Italy also remain embattled with only European Central Bank (“ECB”) purchases of their bonds keeping their interest rates down. Concern about the effect of these bailouts on France and Germany is also intensifying.

Concerns about US and Japanese government debt are also increasing.

Official forecasts show that America’s national debt will increase by $3.5 trillion from its existing $14.5 trillion over the next decade. These forecasts are unlikely to be met unless the political deadlock over the budget is overcome and economic growth recovers. Japan was downgraded to AA- and its longer-term economic prognosis continues to be poor.

Facts 2 – Problems with banks have re-emerged.

Banks globally, especially European banks, are seen as increasingly vulnerable to European debt problems. The total exposure of the global banking system to Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy is over $2 trillion. [= 2 Bio. in dt.]. French and Germany banks have very large exposures.

If there are defaults, then these banks will need capital, most likely from their sovereigns. As they are increasingly themselves under pressure, their ability to support the banking system is unclear. The pressure is evident in the share prices of French banks; Societe Generale’s share price has fallen by nearly 50% in a relatively short period of time.

In the US, concerns about Bank of America (“BA”) have emerged, with analysts suggesting that the bank requires significant infusions of capital. The major concerns relate to BA’s investment in US mortgage originator Countrywide including continuing litigation losses, exposure to European banks, loans to commercial real estate and the quality of other assets, such as mortgage servicing rights and goodwill resulting from its acquisition of Merrill Lynch.

BA claims that its exposure of $17 billion to European sovereigns was hedged. As the world discovered in 2008, it wasn’t whether you were hedged but who you were hedged with and whether they were financially able to perform that was the issue. (siehe AIG-Bailout, A.L.)

BA shares have fallen by roughly 40% price over the past month, compared to a 15% decline in the S&P 500. The cost of credit insurance on BA risk has also increased sharply.

BA decision to issue $5 billion in preference shares to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, now confirmed as the market’s lender of last resort, at distressed prices was not a statement of strength but weakness. BA needs more capital in any case and Buffett is betting on both BA and if things go wrong that the US taxpayer will bail him out as they did with his investment in Goldman Sachs.

[Exakt dies hatte ich ebenfalls vermutet und hier gepostet - A.L.]

BA’s woes confirm that problems in the banking system exist globally, not only in Europe.

Fact 3 – Money markets are seizing up

Banks and financial institutions are finding it increasingly difficult to raise funds. Costs have risen sharply.

Spanish and Italian banks have limited access to international commercial funding. Like Greek, Irish and Portuguese banks, they are heavily reliant on funding from local investors and central banks, including the ECB.

American money market funds, which manage around $1.6 trillion, historically invested around 40-45% ($600-700 billion) with European financial institutions. Over the last few months, the money market funds have reduced their exposure to European entities, especially Spanish and Italian banks. The funds have also decreased the term of their loans to the European entities that they are willing deal with to as little as 7 days at a time, in an effort to limit risk.

European banks are having to pay higher interest rates, if they can attract funds. The problems are not confined to European financial institutions. Despite limited known direct exposure to European sovereigns and their relatively strong financial positions, Australian banks’ credit costs in international money markets have increased by more than 1.00% in less than 3 months.

As a result, non-financial institutions are finding finance less readily available and more expensive. Anecdotal evidence suggest that businesses are having difficulty financing normal commercial transactions, recalling the credit problems of late 2008/ early 2009.

Banks are increasingly following Tennessee Williams’ advice for survival: “We have to distrust each other. It is our only defense against betrayal.”

Fact 4 – The broader economic environment is deteriorating.

The global economic recovery is stalling. The risk of a recession or minimal growth is significant.

The favourable stock market reaction to the latest report of growth in orders for durable goods in America misses an essential point. At around $200 billion an month, it is still around 20% below its peak in 2007 and only at 2000 levels.

Germany and emerging market economies, like China and India, which have contributed the bulk of global growth since 2008, are showing signs of slowing. The effects of the excessive credit expansion in China and India are showing up in bank bad debts.

Then there are pernicious feedback loops. Tighter money market conditions feed into lower growth, increasing the problems of government finances. Falling tax revenues and rising expenditures push up budget deficits, requiring greater borrowing. Lower growth feeds into greater business failures that increase bank bad debts, feeding further tightening in lending conditions and the cost of finance.

The rapid and marked deterioration in economic and financial conditions means that the risk of a serious disruption is now significant.

If market seize up again, then “this time it will be different“. There might just not be enough money to bail out everyone and every country that may need rescuing. (siehe mein Posting von Dez. 2010).

Government policy options are severely restricted. Government support is restricted because of excessive debt levels and the reluctance of investors to finance indebted sovereigns. Interest rates in most developed countries are low or zero, restricting the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting borrowing cost. Unconventional monetary strategies – namely printing money or quantitative easing – have been tried with limited success. Further doses, while eagerly anticipated by market participants, may not be effective.

The global economy may muddle through, but a second credit crash is now distinctly possible. But the trigger and timing is unknown. As John Maynard Keynes remarked: “The expected never happens; it is the unexpected always.”

-Satyajit Das
August 27, 2011

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/from-green-to-red-–-is-credit-crunch-2-0-imminent/print/

Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zum Verbrauchervertrauen ("Consumer Confidence") des Conference Boards für August 2011

Der US-amerikanische Vertrauensindex notiert im August bei 44,5. Erwartet wurde er im Bereich 50 bis 52. Im Vormonat hatte er bei 59,5 notiert.

eine weitere Seitwärtsbewegung. Ich sehe immer nur Seitwärtsbewegungen.  ;o)

Man könnte auch zum Ergebnis kommen, dass es Stufen einer im Bau befindlichen Treppe sind. Dann stellt sich die Frage ob das eine Hauseingangstreppe wird oder eine Treppe welche vom Speicher in den Keller führt? Liegt momentan noch im Nebel.

Malko, einfach mal die Scheuklappen ablegen und den Blick links und rechts in den Abgrund richten ;-)

Welche Treppe wir begehen, wird die Zukunft zeigen, die 2011er Treppe bislang ist im Rückspiegel deutlich zu erkennen.

Selten eine so anschauliche Abbildung der berüchtigten "Overhead Resistance" gesehen ;-)

---

Eigene Währung, ein Volk voller Zocker und voll auf Wachstum gesetzt. Und das Ergebnis? Endgültig Pleite! Übrigens, österreichische Banken sind stark in Ungarn vertreten. Es waren hauptsächlich diese Banken, welche der Bevölkerung die Fremdwährungskredite gebracht haben.

Die BigBoyz mit ihren 10-Gigabit-Strippen könnten sicherlich eine noch viel größere Vola herbeizaubern. Theoretisch könnte es börsentäglich 30 % rauf und runter gehen. Nur würden sie damit gänzlich das Vertrauen in die Börse zerstören. Der zurzeit laufende "schaumgebremste" Crash auf Raten ist ein technisches Zugeständnis an den kleinen Mann, für den die Illusion aufrecht erhalten werden soll, dass trotz 70 % Maschinen-Trading an allen größeren Börsen "alles noch so ist wie früher".

nur noch "Futures"....

die wir in Zukunft vermutlich noch öfter sehen werden, zeigen die Maschinen, was sie "können". (Nachtrag zu # 191).

A top Federal Reserve official who dissented from the U.S. central bank's move this month to ease monetary policy further signaled he would drop his opposition.

But Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota stopped well short of saying he would support any further easing, and his remarks show he remains firmly on the hawkish wing of the Fed's policy-setting panel.

The Fed , which has already cut short-term interest rates to near zero and bought $2.3 trillion in long-term securities to boost the recovery, said on Aug. 9 it would likely keep benchmark U.S. rates exceptionally low for the next two years. The decision drew three dissents, the most in nearly 20 years.

"I see no reason to revisit the decisions of August 2011," Kocherlakota said in remarks prepared for delivery to the National Association of State Treasurers in Bismarck, North Dakota.

"I believe that undoing this commitment in the near term would undercut the ability of the Committee to offer similar conditional commitments in the future, and this ability has certainly proved very useful in the past three years," Kocherlakota said. "So, I plan to abide by the August 2011 commitment in thinking about my own future decisions."

Kocherlakota, whose turn to vote on the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee runs through the end of this year, stopped short of promising not to dissent on future Fed decisions, however, saying that "the case for any additional easing would have to be made on its own merits."

 

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke plans a two-day policy-setting meeting next month to discuss possible plans for further easing. Originally the talks had been due to last only a day.

Based on Kocherlakota's remarks, such a decision would be a hard sell for him, unless inflation dropped sharply.

Both inflation and inflation expectations are higher, and unemployment is lower and expected to drop further, than last November when the Fed embarked on its most recent round of monetary stimulus, Kocherlakota said.

He expects the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, core PCE (personal consumption expenditure), to rise to 2.1 percent next year versus an expectation of about 1.3 percent last November.

Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate, which was then at 9.8 percent, has dropped to 9.1 percent, and he expects it to fall to below 8.5 percent by the end of next year.

While it was still "disturbingly high," he said, the Fed would have been unable to push it lower without boosting inflation above its 2 percent target, which in turn could unmoor inflation expectations and undercut the Fed's ability to keep inflation in check.

Ausgedehnte Seitwärtsbewegungen sind charakteristisch für Topbildungsphasen, W-Böden und insbesondere für L-Böden. In der aktuellen Phase erwarte ich keine Seitwärtsbewegung sondern eine kurzfristige a-b-c-Korrektur.

würde dann wohl auf etwas Ähnliches hinauslaufen wie mein Szenario in # 178?

Unten eine erweiterte Version des Charts aus # 178 - mit b- und c-Welle (als Unterwellen der C-Welle).

Demnäch käme jetzt eine b-Welle (aufwärts) bis zum Widerstand bei 1260 (Juni-Tief), wo aktuell auch die 200-Tage-Linie läuft, gefolgt von einer c-welle, die "bodenlos" bis weit unter 1000 taucht.

Dies entspräche dem Verlauf von Frühsommer 2008. Auch damals kam die Kehrtwende exakt an der 200-Tage-Line (siehe Wawidus SPX-Langzeitchart), die damals allerdings noch bei 1425 stand. Das damals relativ hohe Zwischenhoch rührte daher, dass Finanzaktien wie Citi und AIG 20 Mal höher notierten als heute. Die meisten Finanzwerte haben sich nicht nennenswert von dem 2008-Crash erholt (siehe BAC). Dies bewirkt, dass nun schon bei 1260 die Luft nach oben raus sein dürfte.

www.athensnews.gr/portal/11/46654
..."I am confident that we will find an answer to this issue of collateral. I don't think we need a special Eurogroup. We have an informal Eurogroup in Poland on September 16 and this issue will be concluded at the latest at that moment," Juncker told reporters in Brussels.

ich hatte keine Ahnung,aber wer weiss das schon?
www.athensnews.gr/portal/1/46682
www.hortiatis570.gr/memorial/holocaust_en.htm