12 Nov 2004 11:19 GMT =DJ FOCUS:
MorphoSys Shares Outpace German Biotech Market By Angela Cullen
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--German biotechnology company MorphoSys AG (MOR.XE) has staged a remarkable comeback this year, with shares up more than 30% during the last month alone.
Key pharmaceutical alliances, the company's graduation to the TecDAX index for technology stocks, and the recent promise of profit in 2005 have fueled a near 250% gain since the start of January.
But the shares are in for a volatile ride, market watchers said. The antibodies specialist has a near solo run in a still struggling sector, and speculators have now entered play, they added.
" The latest newsflow was good and antibodies are en vogue, but (the shares) have overshot their fundamental fair value," one analyst said.
After rising to their highest level since March 2002 in intraday trading on Wednesday, MorphoSys shares slid 13% on Thursday on profit-taking. At 1114 GMT Friday, they were up 6.3%, or EUR2.30, at EUR38.90, compared with EUR28.44 one month ago.
Chief Executive Simon Moroney said the shares' dramatic rise this year should be considered in light of the company's precipitous fall during the sector selloff that followed the 2000 biotech boom.
" What you have to remember is that we fell disproportionately to our peer companies," said Chief Executive Simon Moroney in a telephone interview. " I think a correction is appropriate."
Listing at EUR25 in March 1999, the shares had surged to a record EUR444.44 by February 2000, but fell as low as EUR4.69 by December 2002 as the company hit a cash crunch and was forced to restructure.
" People are taking a fresh look and asking whether this is a different company to what it was two years ago, and the answer is yes," the CEO said. " Clearly the company is in a much more solid and much stronger position."
Although it's still predicting a narrow loss this year, MorphoSys posted a nine-month net profit in late October. It's targeting its first full-year profit next year, which would make it the first German biotech company to generate a profit.
Some other German stocks have posted gains this year, but the intense buying interest in MorphoSys stock hasn't spilled over.
" That's a good thing," said DZ Bank analyst Thomas Hoeger, who cautions against indiscriminate sector buying.
GPC Biotech AG (GPC.XE) shares have fallen 1% over the last month and are up 36% since the start of the year. MediGene AG (MDG.XE) is flat on the month and up 26% since the start of the year, and Evotec OAI AG (EVT.XE) has fallen more than 30% over the last month and 50% since the start of 2004.
The European sector still lags that in the U.S. by about 10 years. MediGene is the only German biotech company to have a drug on the market, and many of the country's other biotechs are focused on services, which have lower margins than do products. Even companies involved in drug development remain a long way from booking a profit, the experts said.
" We're focused on companies that develop drugs," said Roland Maier, fund manager at Bellevue Asset Management, which manages SFR2 billion in assets of Swiss investment firm BB Biotech AG (BIO.EB). " Our interest is limited for those who offer services."
MorphoSys, which designs antibodies and licenses its HuCAL antibodies library to partners in the biotech and pharmaceutical industries, is essentially a services company.
While it may have hit the radar screens of retail investors, fund managers are cautious. " Finding buy-side investors is difficult," said one trader.
MorphoSys has broad alliances with Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Novartis AG (NVS) and Schering AG (SHR), but none of the antibodies generated from the partnerships have entered clinical development.
Although it expects at least three antibodies to enter the clinic by the end of next year, a commercial product is still years away.
Despite volatility in the shares, analysts expect the good news flow from MorphoSys to continue, however.
The partnership with Schering, which holds an equity stake in the company, expires at the end of the year, and many analysts predict the companies will extend their alliance.
CEO Moroney declined to say whether the partnership will continue, but said: " We've been very happy with the partnership." Good news included, MorphoSys shares are fairly valued around EUR33 to EUR35, analysts said.
Hanns Froehnmeyer, biotech analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, cut his rating on the stock to hold from buy after the stock moved above EUR33, and said " the air's getting thinner" above that level.
Company Web site:
www.morphosys.com -By Angela Cullen, Dow Jones Newswires; 49 69 2972 5500; angela.cullen@dowjones.com
(Benjamin Krieger in Frankfurt contributed to this story.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
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