Margin path gains credibility, chg.

FY26 guidance looks fully consistent with the CMD framework. OHB guides for c. € 1.4bn total revenues, broadly in line with our € 1.44bn estimate (c. 15% yoy growth), alongside an EBITDA margin of c. 11% (eNuW: 10.7%).

The second relevant datapoint came one day earlier with EPS-Sterna. The € 248m order covers 20 small satellites and is strategically relevant. It shows OHB is seen capable of turning a single demonstrator into serial constellation production. In fact, this capability should become more important e.g. with the tender for SATCOMBw 4.

SATCOMBw 4 is taking shape. Recent press reports indicate that Airbus, OHB and Rheinmetall intend to submit a joint bid for the Bundeswehr’s sovereign LEO communications network, reportedly comprising >100 satellites and carrying a total contract value of € 8-10bn. Compared with earlier reports, the inclusion of Airbus changes the setup. While this likely lowers OHB’s potential workshare versus the narrower bidder group, it should also raise award certainty materially. We now view a one-third share as realistic. Even on that basis, the programme could imply c. € 2.7-3.3bn of cumulative order intake for OHB and should be margin accretive, in our view.

OHB combines a credible earnings ramp with growing participation in Europe’s sovereign space build-out. The Q4 margin of 11.6% already sits above the FY26 target, although our FY26 estimate of 10.7% still leaves room for normal quarterly volatility. EPS-Sterna and SATCOMBw 4 also support the view that OHB is strengthening its position in constellation-driven programmes.

Key catalysts are further large orders in 2026, which we continue to expect mostly in H2, more detail on SATCOMBw4, additional constellation wins after EPS-Sterna and operational progress at RFA. Each of these looks set to support order intake assumptions or improve confidence in OHB’s strategic positioning.

BUY maintained, on a rolled over DCF; new PT € 272 (old: € 260).