FY25 out: Op. tide is turning, B&C offer too low; PT UP

Q4 revenue came in at € 179m (+5.3% yoy) in line with expectations (eNuW: € 179.6m), driven by sequential demand improvements following a weak Q1 and geopolitical uncertainty in Q2 resulting in project and demand delays. Q4 EBITDA rose 30.7% yoy to € 27.4m (eNuW: € 21.7m), with a favorable development in EBITDA margin yoy from 12.4% to 15.3%. This highlights the positive impact of previously implemented cost measures in combination with higher capacity utilization.

Segment performance underscores the breadth of recovery. SIA delivered Q4 EBITDA of € 15.1m (margin: 21.7%, +6.2pp yoy), driven by higher volume intake per existing customer — a quality signal, not just a volume story. SEA added € 16.2m in Q4 EBITDA (margin: 14.8%, +2.6pp yoy), with stronger activity across belting, LSR and forms. Both segments beat our estimates at the EBITDA level, with aggregate Q4 EBITDA of € 27.4m versus our € 21.7m estimate, a c. 26% beat.

With this, FY 25 revenue stood at € 662.4m and op. EBITDA came in at € 79.5, slightly beating the guidance of € 78m op. EBITDA. Of the ongoing cost cutting program (total € 10m annual savings), € 6m were already realized in FY25. ERP-related costs came in at € 4.1m, below our expectation of € 5m (eNuW). Lower CAPEX and w/c partially offset the reduced net income, allowing for € 37m FCF, down 19% yoy.

FY 26 guidance of € 95m op. EBITDA looks achievable, confirms turnaround. The building blocks seem credible: full € 10m annualized cost savings flowing through, 7.2% top-line growth (eNuW) supported by improving demand and pricing, and a favorable order book trajectory in both segments. On raw materials, European butadiene is up 5.6% in March and synthetic rubber approximately 22%, driven by Middle East supply disruptions. Yet, near-term impact is buffered by existing inventories. Semperit has historically passed on raw material cost inflation to customers; if elevated prices persist, this mechanism should limit margin damage. Our estimates assume raw material cost growth does not exceed ~10% annualized.

B&C undemanding. B&C Holding Österreich GmbH, already the majority shareholder with 57.3%, has announced a public takeover offer at € 15 per share a 25% premium to the pre-announcement price. We acknowledge the premium, but reject the notion that it reflects fair value. In our view, the company is ahead of a multi-year operational improvement cycle with neither the full cost savings benefit nor the revenue recovery yet reflected in trailing earnings. At € 15, the offer implies roughly 5.4x EV/EBITDA on our FY26e (BV/share stands at ~ € 20).

We raise our PT to € 21 (prev. € 18.5), based on DCF and reiterate BUY. The DCF upgrade reflects higher near-term EBITDA estimates, the full flow-through of cost savings and continued balance sheet improvement. The operational inflection is underway with the FY26 setup being the strongest in three years.