Reform date set, cash raised - investment case crystallises

Proceeds are earmarked for platform infrastructure, the franchise/cooperation rollout, simulator development, and AI-driven process automation, all investments geared towards the upcoming regulatory changes. The capital raise also enhances 123f's ability to act as a consolidator in a structurally fragmented market, where smaller analogue peers are increasingly struggling with rising costs and compliance requirements.

VMK resolution removes key overhang. The Verkehrsministerkonferenz (VMK) in Lindau on 25/26 March formally instructed Federal Transport Minister Schnieder to implement the driving school reform, with a targeted effective date of 1 January 2027. This removes the main regulatory uncertainty that has weighed on near-term demand and investment decisions since late 2025, most visibly in the simulator segment, where customers had been deferring orders pending legal clarity.

The reform permits full e-learning for theory lessons, formally integrates simulators into mandatory practical training, and reduces mandatory special drives from twelve to three. Critically, the e-learning allowance enables a genuinely asset-light, nationwide rollout as students can be enrolled digitally, complete theory online, and be handed to local franchise or cooperation partners for practical training. This represents a structurally more scalable model than the current branch-based setup and could support a meaningful step-up in sales per branch while keeping fixed cost additions limited.

FY26 guidance confirmed. Management reiterated its FY26 EBITDA guidance of € 1.5-2.5m, with early FY26 indicators described as supportive. From FY27 onwards, catch-up effects are expected as the reform takes effect, with 123f's pre-built digital infrastructure and simulator capacity seen as key differentiators versus less prepared peers.

Overall, the VMK resolution is the more meaningful of today's two announcements, as it provides the regulatory foundation the investment case has been waiting for. We reiterate our BUY rating with a € 6.10 PT based on DCF.