FY25 prelim confirm the growth story; chg. est.

International expansion gaining traction. The company’s focused rollout across key European markets is increasingly supporting both top-line growth and overall earnings quality. The UK alone contributed more than 20% of total group revenue in 2025. This is relevant for two main reasons: firstly, UK sales are structurally higher-margin (higher avg. selling price compared to Germany’s more volume-driven flower segment; secondly, a broader geographic footprint helps alleviate regulatory concentration risk, which has historically weighed on market sentiment.

In addition to the UK, Poland is also expanding at a pace well above the underlying market. Consistent with its strategy, further entries into European markets are likely over the short to medium term (eNuW), reinforcing the company’s transition into a pan-European player.

Greater emphasis on premiumisation in Germany. Profitability in the German market has come under pressure due to intensified price competition in the lower-end segment, following a surge in supply, partly triggered by regulatory uncertainty and subsequent inventory adjustments across the industry, particularly over the summer period. In response, Cantourage has repositioned its portfolio towards higher-margin premium strains, which tend to be more resilient to demand volatility. As a result, competitive differentiation is shifting away from scale towards product curation and quality.

FY26e sales to exceed € 100m (8% yoy growth, eNuW) despite the challenging market conditions in Germany as Cantourage is successfully repositioning the local product portfolio and international markets retain high growth rates. More importantly, margins are seen to further improve to 8.5% (EBITDA), +2.4pp yoy, benefitting from the aforementioned premiumisation in Germany and a strategic shift (opportunistically) from pass-through distributor to principal buyer, taking inventory onto its own book and capturing a structurally larger share of the margin stack.

Valuation remains deeply undemanding. The prelims reinforce the M&A reference point we established in our last note. The Sanity/Organigram transaction at ~4.2x EV/sales for a wholesale-only, barely profitable business stands in stark contrast to Cantourage's ~0.7x EV/Sales FY25p with a clearly positive and growing EBITDA. The market continues to under-price both the operational trajectory and the de-risking of the regulatory overhang. We confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 10 PT (DCF-based).