AI implementation wave ahead

Q1 26e sales are seen to increase 3.6% yoy to € 230.0m (eNuW). Growth should again be driven by the Americas (eNuW: +17% yoy), where GFT already showed clear traction in 2025 with Brazil, Colombia and the US growing at high double-digit rates. The inorganic contribution from Megawork should be around € 4.2m (1.8% of Q1 sales, eNuW).

Q1 26e adj. EBIT looks set to grow 6.8% yoy to € 16.1m, implying a 7.0% margin, up 0.2pp yoy. This marks a clear sequential improvement in earnings momentum after the UK realignment weighed on Q4 25, causing adj. EBIT to decline c. 9% yoy. Importantly, the improvement should come despite the UK unit still diluting group profitability by c. 1pp in Q1 26e (eNuW). Despite being a seasonally weaker quarter, Q1 26e would already represent 22.7% of the FY26 adj. EBIT guidance of c. € 71m, and hence a supportive start to the year. For historic comparison, Q1 has contributed 21.1% of FY EBIT on average over the past five years.

Agentic AI should reinforce demand for GFT’s core banking IT capabilities. Banking and insurance are leading agentic AI adoption, driven by use cases such as fraud detection, loan processing, underwriting and claims automation (source: BCG, Capgemini). For GFT, the monetisation angle sits one layer below: platform transformation, cloud migration, data architecture and integration into complex banking IT. The set-up is attractive: 75% of enterprises want service-provider support for priority agentic AI use cases, while only c. 10% of financial services institutions use AI at scale (source: BCG, Capgemini). Hence, the implementation wave should still be ahead.

Peer cross-reads are supportive, with Financial Services standing out as one of the stronger growth verticals at Accenture, Cognizant and Sopra Steria. With 88% of revenue in financial services, GFT’s sector concentration should be seen as an edge compared to other IT service providers, in our view.

At the same time, the structural setup has also improved. The EU-Mercosur trade deal, provisionally applicable from May 1, should strengthen the framework for cross-border digital and financial services. While we do not expect a direct revenue uplift this year, the agreement should reduce perceived execution risk for European banks considering larger nearshore delivery mandates e.g. in Brazil.

In sum, Q1 should support confidence in the FY26 guidance and keep the recovery case intact, while the medium-term growth drivers become more tangible.

BUY, PT € 32, based on DCF.