Ich tippe auf Mitte bis Ende November 2010 - und auf eine US-Down-Gap-Eröffnung von über -10 Prozent.
Fondsmanager Joe Saluzzi hält einen weiteren Flash-Crash für jederzeit möglich:
Don't Believe The Rally?
Major averages are hovering near their highest levels since September 2008, but retail investors continue to flee the market.
Domestic equity funds have suffered outflows for 24 consecutive weeks through Friday, and over $81 billion has come out of domestic equity mutual funds year to date, according to Morningstar.
At the risk of stating the obvious, several factors explain why investors simply don't trust the rally.
Twice bitten, thrice shy: Having been burned by the bursting of the tech stock bubble in 2000, the housing bubble and the financial crisis of 2008, investors are understandably wary of getting sucked in again. A "lost decade" for index investors hasn't helped either.
It's the Economy Stupid: With the "real" unemployment rate near 17%, millions of Americans simply have no money to put into the market; many are cashing out their 401(k) plans and otherwise raiding their nest eggs in an effort to stay afloat.
Given the economic backdrop, it's no surprise many investors see the rally as being detached from reality and due only to the Fed's easy money policies...and the promise of more!
"We're not seeing any sort of growth other than stimulus," says Joseph Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading. "That is a very disturbing thing -- the constant stimulus that keeps on coming that really does nothing other than barely keep you above [breakeven] on the GDP print."
In addition, Saluzzi says investors are rightfully worried about a market dominated by "high-speed guys just chasing each other up and down the price ladder."...
As has been widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%.
Saluzzi isn't opposed to high-frequency trading per se, calling it a "byproduct of the market structure," as detailed in the accompanying video. But he believes that structure is broken, thanks to rules promoting computer-driven trading, most notably Reg NMS.
As a result of regulatory changes and new technology, events like the May 6 ‘flash crash' "will happen again," he says. "There's not a doubt in my mind."
Many retail investors feel the same way, another reason for the mistrust of the rally and why about $65 billion of the equity fund outflows this year have occurred in the five months since the "flash crash".
Dort findet sich auch ein interessanter TV-Link (Talk mit Joe Saluzzi, Henry Blodget und Finanzjournalist Aaron Task).
Einige Marktbeobachter glauben, dass die Ami-Kleinanleger lediglich aus Kostengründen die schwach performenden und teuren (Gebühren) Mutual Funds verlassen haben und nun individuell ETFs auf US-Indizes traden, oft gehebelt. Das schließt jedoch einen zweiten Flash-Crash keinesfalls aus, sondern begünstig ihn sogar - u. a. weil ETF-Trendritter äußerst schwache Halter sind. Weitere Argumente habe ich hier genannt.