mit Aussagen von Capital Economics,HSBC und Merrill lynch
HSBC is more bullish, saying consumption may be picking up faster than some expect:
Households" incomes grew relatively quickly in real terms over 2013: 7% for urban households and 9.3% rural households (vs. 6.8% and 9.6% respectively for 1Q-3Q 2013). This should support greater consumption and offset some of the weakness in public consumption as a result of ongoing anti-corruption drives.
Retail growth in December held up, said Bank Of America Merrill Lynch:
Retail sales growth edged down to 13.6% yoy in December from 13.7% in November, but in real terms, it rose to 12.2% from 11.8%, underpinning resilient consumption in China.
In 2013, headline retail sales growth moderated to 13.1% from 14.3% in 2012, due mainly to government frugality campaign. The slightly lower headline retail sales growth in December is due to softer catering sales growth, which moderated to 8.6% from 9.4%, while overall goods sales growth remained unchanged at 14.3%. In goods sales, growth of home appliance and home electronics fell to 20.1% and 10.9% from 24.8% and 19.6% respectively in November, while food & beverage sales growth rose to 14.8% from 14.1%, and gold/jewelry sales growth quickened to 16.6% from 14.8%. Sales growth of autos in value terms increased to 13.4% from 11.6%.
blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/...h-drivers-this-year/