trotz der guten Nachrichten aus dem Irak scheint die Ernüchterung einzutreten,wie schon gestern Merril Lynch warnte:
Despite encouraging news out of Iraq, the world still faces enormous uncertainty about the global economy," Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach told clients Tuesday. Roach cited the need to broaden support for growth beyond the United States; the need to uncover new sources of U.S. growth; and huge, unsustainable external imbalances.
Global financial markets now expect the war with Iraq to end in a few days," Wachovia economist Matthew Ellis told clients.
"While that assessment is probably a bit more optimistic than coalition military leaders would like, the focus is already shifting into what the postwar economic environment will look like. The markets are expecting U.S. and global economic recoveries to gain momentum," he said.
Prudential Securities market analyst Bryan Piskorowski said that, while the market is rallying in the hopes that a quick war would lead to a healthier economy, gains' sustainability and follow-through would be questioned.
And, while most investors appear ready for a "post-Saddam" rally, Merrill Lynch's chief U.S. strategist, Richard Bernstein, said he is recommending a more conservative stance.
"Two of our important fundamentally based indicators have meaningfully deteriorated and suggest increased caution might be appropriate," the strategist told clients Monday.
Bernstein noted that only three of his 10 profit indicators suggest profits will accelerate meaningfully, marking the worst reading since 2000-2001. He also said the proportion of surprises from economic data is also fading.
"We continue to believe that high-beta, low-yield and cyclical stocks should be sold into strength, especially if there is a 'post-Saddam' rally," he said. "Investors should consider reallocating the proceeds to lower-beta, higher-yielding and defensive sectors."
Indeed, Bernstein's colleague, David Rosenberg, said he believes that once investor focus shifts away from Iraq, they may be in for a "rude awakening," given that the economy "is back on the precipice of recessio."
He said if nonfarm payrolls were to decline for a third straight month in April, it would "likely seal that fate."
Washington, April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose in February as sales of autos and other durable goods declined, more evidence the economy stumbled during the buildup to war with Iraq.
Consumer spending stalled in February as snowstorms closed stores and the war in Iraq became increasingly likely. Higher inventories may weigh on growth in March and April because factories may have to curb production to avoid building up excess stockpiles.
But crude and gold futures fell as coalition forces' grip tightened on Baghdad. Crude futures were trading off the lows of the session on word OPEC may call a special meeting on April 24 to discuss falling oil prices.
RF Micro -11%, Acxiom -22%
Despite encouraging news out of Iraq, the world still faces enormous uncertainty about the global economy," Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach told clients Tuesday. Roach cited the need to broaden support for growth beyond the United States; the need to uncover new sources of U.S. growth; and huge, unsustainable external imbalances.
Global financial markets now expect the war with Iraq to end in a few days," Wachovia economist Matthew Ellis told clients.
"While that assessment is probably a bit more optimistic than coalition military leaders would like, the focus is already shifting into what the postwar economic environment will look like. The markets are expecting U.S. and global economic recoveries to gain momentum," he said.
Prudential Securities market analyst Bryan Piskorowski said that, while the market is rallying in the hopes that a quick war would lead to a healthier economy, gains' sustainability and follow-through would be questioned.
And, while most investors appear ready for a "post-Saddam" rally, Merrill Lynch's chief U.S. strategist, Richard Bernstein, said he is recommending a more conservative stance.
"Two of our important fundamentally based indicators have meaningfully deteriorated and suggest increased caution might be appropriate," the strategist told clients Monday.
Bernstein noted that only three of his 10 profit indicators suggest profits will accelerate meaningfully, marking the worst reading since 2000-2001. He also said the proportion of surprises from economic data is also fading.
"We continue to believe that high-beta, low-yield and cyclical stocks should be sold into strength, especially if there is a 'post-Saddam' rally," he said. "Investors should consider reallocating the proceeds to lower-beta, higher-yielding and defensive sectors."
Indeed, Bernstein's colleague, David Rosenberg, said he believes that once investor focus shifts away from Iraq, they may be in for a "rude awakening," given that the economy "is back on the precipice of recessio."
He said if nonfarm payrolls were to decline for a third straight month in April, it would "likely seal that fate."
Washington, April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose in February as sales of autos and other durable goods declined, more evidence the economy stumbled during the buildup to war with Iraq.
Consumer spending stalled in February as snowstorms closed stores and the war in Iraq became increasingly likely. Higher inventories may weigh on growth in March and April because factories may have to curb production to avoid building up excess stockpiles.
But crude and gold futures fell as coalition forces' grip tightened on Baghdad. Crude futures were trading off the lows of the session on word OPEC may call a special meeting on April 24 to discuss falling oil prices.
RF Micro -11%, Acxiom -22%
