K+S Faktenthread + Technische Analysen + News

Uralkali CEO Baumgertner to remain under house arrest
MOSCOW, January 16 (RAPSI, Diana Gutsul) – Moscow's Basmanny District Court on Thursday granted the investigation's motion to extend the house arrest of Uralkali CEO Vladislav Baumgertner, who faces abuse of power charges in Russia, RAPSI reports from the courtroom.

Baumgertner will remain under house arrest until April 14.

rapsinews.com/judicial_news/20140116/270455976.html

www.4investors.de/php_fe/index.php?sektion=stock&ID=77294

Uralkali Shares Rise on Rumored Potash Price Increase

Shares were also supported by the producer's ongoing negotiations over its Chinese contract, which could set a price floor, said Boris Krasnojenov, an analyst at Renaissance Capital in Moscow.

The contract with China, the world's largest potash consumer, is seen as a benchmark by the bulk of market participants.

"There are rumors that Uralkali will sign the contract with China for the first half of the season soon and that China could agree on the price of $300 per ton, which would mark the price bottom," Krasnojenov said...


Uralkali is signaling that Brazilian buyers will have to pay $350 to $360 per ton on a cost-and-freight basis for granular potash for March volumes compared to the current $320 per ton, JP Morgan said in a note.

JP Morgan said it had seen the first clear evidence of a return to the price-over-volume strategy due to speculation that Uralkali has joined a group called Canpotex, the world's top export group, in pledging that prices below $300 per tonne in Southeast Asia would not be supported...

www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/...ncrease/492825.html

Düngerlager: So leer wie seit langem nicht mehr

Die Düngerlager beim Landhandel in Deutschland sind so leer wie seit etlichen Jahren nicht mehr...

Der Handel lege sich in der aktuell unsicheren Lage nur in geringem Umfang Ware auf eigene Rechnung ins Lager. Für das laufende Wirtschaftsjahr erwartet der Landhändler ein kompliziertes Düngemittelgeschäft...

Schockwellen sprach der BVA-Vizepräsident mit Blick auf den Kalimarkt und der Ankündigung des russischen Produzenten Uralkali, aus dem Kaliexportverbund mit dem weißrussischen Partner auszutreten. Welche Auswirkungen dies auf die Kalipreise in Deutschland habe, sei noch offen. Generell empfahl Bremer den Landwirten, bei dem aktuell relativ niedrigen Preisniveau für Düngemittel zumindest Teilmengen abzusichern...

Die Branche sehe der Saison vorsichtig optimistisch entgegen.

www.agrarheute.com/duengelager

Potash Prices Likely Found A Bottom, JP Morgan Upgrades Uralkali To Hold

January 16, 2014

m.barrons.com/articles/BL-231B-4126

Ways To Play The Potash Rally

m.seekingalpha.com/article/1948531

Potash groups struggle as price hits six-year low
12:27 UK, 15th Jan 2014, by Agrimoney.com

'Difficult decisions'

Intrepid Potash on Tuesday became the latest North American producer to reveal hardship from the price declines, revealing that it was to cut 7% of its workforce, and cut executive pay, in a drive to save $15m in annual costs.

"These are difficult, but necessary decisions," said Dave Honeyfield, Intrepid's chief financial officer, saying that the cuts "better position Intrepid in today's market environment".

"We are treating those impacted by these changes with the respect and fairness they deserve, while creating value for our shareholders by running Intrepid as efficiently as possible."..

m.agrimoney.com/news/...-as-price-hits-six-year-low--6663.html

2,48% Viking Global Investment LP
2,14% Blue Ridge Capital LLC
0,89% Pennant Capital Management LLC
0,82% Brookside Capital Management LLC
0,74% Adage Capital Management LP
0,69% Marshall Wace LLP
0,55% Citadel Europe LLP
0,52% Claren Road Asset Management LLC
0,52% Southpoint Capital Advisors

Insgesamt halten die Leerverkäufer der großen Hedgefonds derzeit Netto-Leerverkaufspositionen in Höhe von 9,35% der K+S-Aktien.

..es wird langsam zeit, wieder zurueckzukehren...in die bollingerzone

http://www.statistikfuchs.de/Daxtrends/Kali_und_Salz

..dies wurd' von mir kurzfristig erwartet und ist heute eingetroffen. daher, nix besonderes, sondern notwendige korrektur

www.agweb.com/mobile/newsdetail.aspx?ArticleId=350472

Uralkai & The Potash Revival -- A Headfake or A Genuine Recovery?

More scuttlebutt from the Perm. Uralkali had threatened a volume-over-price strategy in an effort to gain marketshare when it split from Belorussian potash partners in July 2013. That news came at the same time as the historic slide in corn prices in the U.S. drove North American fertilizer prices south. Uralkali would like to have taken credit for the falloff in potash pricing, but in America, corn futures have held sway.

Uralkali has patched things up with its neighbors and while we have not yet seen a restart of the joint venture Belorussian Potash Company, the two parent countries, Russia and Belarus, are already part of Putin's Customs Union, designed to facilitate exports from the FSU.

Now Uralkali predicts higher pricing ahead for potash. If we question Uralkali's influence over the decline in North American retail potash pricing, we must question their level of influence on the recovery as well.

Stock prices at PotashCorp, Intrepid Potash and others fell hard at the news in July which caused a panic among potash investors who had felt that growing global demand for fertilizer would insulate their investments from price swings. Since then, PotashCorp has announced an 18% cut in both production and workforce. Other potash producers have followed suit.

Meanwhile, the price of potash exports to China has not yet been set. The Chinese price has a great deal of influence over global potash sendout prices based on the high volume of product they and India import annually. The 2012 price was negotiated in late December at $400.00/tonne. China is now offering $280 for the same tonnage. Most believe the price will fall at a happy medium between that figure and producers' asking price of $330.00.

We expect slightly higher prices for P&K by spring with a possible floor in February. But if China inks the bargain basement price of $280/tonne, the price recovery here in the U.S. will be limited. However, prices could forge much higher if China is forced to pay the full $330.00.

As much as Uralkali would like to call itself a Maverick, the real wildcard here is demand from the American farmer. Low crop prices have slashed on-farm P&K budgets by half and even as prices are more than $100/short ton below year-ago, declines in corn futures and uncertainty for the commodity sector in general are giving crop producers pause.

If Uralkali's intent to repair the damage they have done to the potash industry comes in the form of higher prices to China, prices will increase in kind here. However, the decline of the rupee will continue to limit Indian demand in the same way declining crop prices are in the U.S.