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Der USA Bären-Thread

Beiträge: 136.239
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S&P 500 2.905,73 +0,14% Perf. seit Threadbeginn:   +99,09%
 
Der USA Bären-Thread wawidu
wawidu:

Erst die T-Langläufer

9
12.11.10 21:32
- dann die Muni Bonds, und dann die Corporate Bonds? Was ich hiermit in den Raum stelle, sind potenzielle Crashs der Bondsmärkte. Seit Mitte August ist der Preis für T-Bond Langläufer (ETF TLT) von 108 auf 96 gefallen (minus 11 %). Der Chart des Muni Bonds Preisindex $NMUNP signalisiert eine "technische Katastrophe".
(Verkleinert auf 90%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 358198
Der USA Bären-Thread wawidu
wawidu:

Erst die T-Langläufer (2)

2
12.11.10 21:42
Auch die Preise der Investment Grade Corporate Bonds beginnen deutlich zu bröckeln, hier im Chart des ETF LQD erkennbar:
(Verkleinert auf 65%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 358200
Der USA Bären-Thread wawidu
wawidu:

Drei "nette" US-Posts

2
12.11.10 22:08
market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=172082

www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/...h-rise-condos-still.html

Und hier das "übelste":

www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/the-new-economic-cycle/print/

Diesem Szenario messe ich einen hohen Wahrscheinlichkeitsgrad zu.
Der USA Bären-Thread wawidu
wawidu:

Beobachtet insbesondere den NDX!

4
12.11.10 22:40
Ende August hatten die "Marketmaker" erneut eine "Drei-Stufen-Rakete" hoch geschickt, die jedoch den "Orbit" nicht erreichte. Der finale Schub (siehe MACD) reichte dafür nicht mehr aus.
(Verkleinert auf 65%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 358208
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

Request for urgent Business Realtionship

6
12.11.10 23:12
Dear Sir,

   Good day and compliments. I am Dr (Mr) Benjamin Bernanke, Chairman of Federal Reserve of United States of America. This mail will surely come to you as a great surprise, since we never had any previous correspondence. My aim of contacting you is to crave your indulgence to assist us in securing some funds abroad to prosecute a transaction of great magnitude.

   Due to poor banking system in America, many subprime borrowers are not paying back mortgages and banks have lost ONE TRILLION TWO HUNDRED BILLION UNITED STATES DOLLARS ($1,200bn) so far. This calamity has caused much suffering in my country. To help remedy this situation, our president, Mr Barack Obama, has authorised to be spent a sum of EIGHT HUNDRED NINETY SEVEN BILLION DOLLARS ($897bn) on stimulus plus many other good deeds like cash for clunkers. Unfortunately, since that time, we are being molested and constantly harassed by bond vigilantes who do not care that their reckless and vicious behaviour could ruin our hopes and plans.

   To this effect, last year I authorised the printing of ONE TRILLION TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY BILLION ($1,250bn) of United States currency to purchase government securities. To my great shock, this was not enough so I am now buying another SIX HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS ($600bn).

   If you forward a modest sum to purchase Treasury notes then I can buy many more of them with my unlimited printing press and their price will rise. I am absolutely positive that this arrangement will be of mutual benefit to both of us. I can offer you generous interest rate of EIGHT TENTHS OF A PERCENT after taxes.

   I want you to immediately inform me of your willingness in assisting and co-operating with us, so that I can send you full details of this transaction and let us make arrangement for a meeting and discuss at length on how to transfer this funds.

   Yours Faithfully,

   Dr (Mr) Benjamin Bernanke

   N/B: Please contact Mr Timothy Geithner on this e-mail address for further briefing and modalities.
ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/12/403416/...ss-relationship/
Gelöschter Beitrag. Einblenden »
#71156

Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

Find Symbol: Enhanced Mode: On No matches found.

2
13.11.10 09:14
wqas soll denn das Maba???
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

Obama ist unzufrieden mit G20 kritisiert China

3
13.11.10 09:19
www.nytimes.com/2010/11/13/business/global/...1&ref=global
...they did not act as assertively as President Obama had hoped, and he left little doubt that he considered one country, China, the primary source of the problem.
Scrapping a longtime practice of speaking with diplomatic caution about China’s currency policy, Mr. Obama accused Beijing of intervening aggressively to keep its currency, the renminbi, below its market value to promote exports. He said it was a mistake for nations to think that “their path to prosperity is paved simply with exports to the United States.” ....

“It is undervalued. And China spends enormous amounts of money intervening in the market to keep it undervalued.

The tougher language seems likely to add tension with China, which has already sharply criticized the Obama administration’s decision to try to mediate territorial disputes involving China and its East and Southeast Asian neighbors. .....

Under heavy American pressure, the leaders of the Group of 20 economies did agree Friday to curb “persistently large imbalances” in trade, as well as saving and spending, that officials believe pose risks to global growth. The group’s communiqué reflected an emerging consensus that longstanding economic patterns — in particular, the United States’ consuming too much and big exporters like China and Germany consuming too little — were no longer sustainable.

But the uneasy compromise fell short of initial American demands for numerical targets on trade surpluses and deficits,......
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

Teaparty will Protectionismus

4
13.11.10 09:27
www.nytimes.com/2010/11/13/opinion/...hthizer.html?ref=opinion

....the Tea Party. Strangely, for a movement named after an 18th-century protest against import levies, Tea Partyers are largely skeptical about free trade’s benefits — according to a recent poll by NBC and The Wall Street Journal, 61 percent of Tea Party sympathizers believe it has hurt the United States.

The movement has already forced the Republicans to alter their agenda in several policy areas. Should the same thing happen with free trade, America’s stance toward open markets and globalization could shift drastically.
....

Tea Partyers will ask, what good does it do to reduce the role of our government if foreign governments are free to rig the rules, attack American industries and take American jobs? As a result, the otherwise pro-market Tea Party may find its economic program far more at home with a nationalist trade policy that confronts foreign abuses and fights for American companies.

Tea Partyers also have an instinctive aversion to deficits, and they are undoubtedly concerned that our enormous trade imbalances — which require us to sell hundreds of billions of dollars in assets each year — will leave our children dependent on foreign decision makers. Indeed, the value of foreign investments in the United States now exceeds the value of American investments abroad by $2.74 trillion, and China alone has roughly $2.5 trillion in foreign currency reserves, primarily dollar .
Deficits, moreover, aren’t just a statistic; they raise serious concerns about America’s global leadership role. The Tea Party will demand to know why, if our trade policy is so successful, so many experts believe that the 21st century will belong to China, not the United States......
Der USA Bären-Thread maba71
maba71:

Ja ja Kicky!

 
13.11.10 09:29
Hab mich beim umformatieren verhauen!
So ein Mist!
Jetzt kommt es richtig!
War eine Heidenarbeit!
"Heute geht es uns schlechter als gestern, aber besser als morgen!"
"In Zeiten der universellen Täuschung wird das Aussprechen der Wahrheit zur revolutionären Tat!" (George Orwell)
Der USA Bären-Thread maba71
maba71:

Das "BOND-MARKT" Kompendium

9
13.11.10 09:30
Griechenland
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GGGB2YR%3AIND
3y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GGGB3YR%3AIND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GGGB5YR%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GGGB10YR%3AIND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GGGB30YR%3AIND

Deutschland
1y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDBR1:IND
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GDBR2%3AIND
3y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDBR3:IND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GDBR5%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GDBR10%3AIND
20y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDBR20:IND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDBR30:IND

Irland
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GIGB2YR%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GIGB10YR%3AIND

Portugal
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GSPT2YR%3AIND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GSPT5YR%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GSPT10YR%3AIND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GSPT30YR%3AIND

Spanien
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GSPG2YR%3AIND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GSPG5YR%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GSPG10YR%3AIND

Italien
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GBTPGR2%3AIND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GBTPGR5%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GBTPGR10%3AIND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GBTPGR30%3AIND

Frankreich
1y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GFRN1%3AIND
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GFRN2%3AIND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GFRN5%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GFRN10%3AIND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GFRN30%3AIND

England
1y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GUKG1:IND
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GUKG2:IND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GUKG5:IND
7y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GUKG7:IND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GUKG10:IND
15y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GUKG15:IND
20y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GUKG20:IND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GUKG30:IND

Polen
2y webfarm.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=POGB5YR:IND
5y webfarm.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=POGB5YR:IND
10y webfarm.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=POGB10YR:IND
30y webfarm.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=POGB30YR:IND

Belgien
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBGB2YR:IND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBGB5YR:IND
7y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBGB7YR:IND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBGB10YR:IND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBGB30YR:IND

Ungarn
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GHGB2:IND&n=y
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GHGB5:IND&n=y
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GHGB10:IND&n=y

Tschechien
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CZGB2YR:IND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CZGB5YR:IND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CZGB10YR:IND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CZGB30YR:IND

Schweiz
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSWISS10:IND
15y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSWISS15:IND
20y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSWISS20:IND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSWISS30:IND

Amerika USA
2 month swap rate www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=usSOB%3AIND
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=USGG2YR%3AIND
3y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=USGG3YR%3AIND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=USGG5YR%3AIND
7y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=USGG7YR%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=USGG10YR%3AIND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=USGG30YR%3AIND
Yield curve www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/
Ted Spread www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
Break Even 10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGGBE10:IND
Break Even 30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGGBE30:IND

Kanada
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCAN2YR%3AIND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCAN5YR%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCAN10YR%3AIND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCAN30YR%3AIND

Australien
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GACGB2:IND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GACGB5:IND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GACGB10:IND

Japan
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GJGB2%3AIND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GJGB5%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GJGBBNCH%3AIND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GJGB30%3AIND

Indien
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GIND2YR%3AIND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GIND5YR%3AIND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GIND10YR%3AIND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GIND30YR%3AIND

Hong Kong
www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=rnb_hk

China
1y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCNY1YR:IND
2y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCNY2YR:IND
3y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCNY3YR:IND
5y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCNY5YR:IND
7y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCNY7YR:IND
10y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCNY10YR:IND
15y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCNY15YR:IND
20y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCNY20YR:IND
30y www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCNY30YR:IND

Der komplette CDS-Markt Global
Argentinien noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CT350188:IND
Österreich noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CAUT1U5:IND
Bulgarien noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CBULG1U5:IND
Brasilien noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CBRZ1U5:IND
Chile noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CCHIL1U5:IND
China noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CCHIN1U5:IND
Ägypten noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CEGY1U5:IND
Finnland noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CFIN1E5:IND.
Frankreich noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CFRTR1U5:IND
Deutschland noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CDBR1U5:IND
Griechenland noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CGGB1U5:IND
Island noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CT368512:IND
Irland noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CT777651:IND
Italien noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CITLY1U5:IND
Kasachstan noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CKAZ1U5:IND
Lettland noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CT404983:IND
Malaysia noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CMLAY1U5:IND
Mexiko noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CMEX1U5:IND
Pakistan noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CPKT1U5:IND
Portugal noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CPGB1U5:IND
Polen noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CPOLD1U5:IND
Ungarn noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CHUN1U5:IND
Russland noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CRUSS1U5:IND
Südafrika noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CSOAF1U5:IND
Südkorea noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CKREA1U5:IND
Spanien noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CSPA1U5:IND
Kalifornien noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CT850113:IND
Schweden noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CT777839:IND
Thailand noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CTHAI1U5:IND
Türkei noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CTURK1U5:IND
Ukraine noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CUKR1U5:IND
England noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CUKT1U5:IND
USA noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CT786896:IND
Venezuela noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CVENZ1U5:IND

PIIGS-Special: Average price of credit-default swaps (CDS) on Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIIGS)
www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.GIPSI:IND
"Heute geht es uns schlechter als gestern, aber besser als morgen!"
"In Zeiten der universellen Täuschung wird das Aussprechen der Wahrheit zur revolutionären Tat!" (George Orwell)
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

Municipal Bond Market Shudders

3
13.11.10 09:33
www.nytimes.com/2010/11/13/business/...13bond.html?ref=economy

....Concern over the increasingly strained finances of states and cities and a growing backlog of new bonds for sale overwhelmed the market last week. After performing so well for so long, munis and funds that invest in them fell hard. One big muni fund, the Pimco Municipal Income Fund II, for instance, lost 7.5 percent. The fund is still up 6.75 percent so far this year.

While the declines were relatively small given the remarkable gains in these bonds over the last two years, the slump was swift enough to leave investors wondering if this was a brief setback or the start of something worse. For months, some on Wall Street have warned that indebted states and cities might face a crisis akin to the one that brought Greece to its knees.

...the big question confronting this market is how state and local governments will manage their debts. Many are staggering under huge pension and health care obligations that seem unsustainable.

Certainties are impossible because governments do not have to disclose the pension payouts they will have to make in the coming years, as they do for bond payouts.

California, for example, will have to sell nearly $14 billion of debt into the falling market this month, because of its record delay in getting a budget signed this year. The warnings keep coming. On Friday, Fitch, the credit ratings agency, issued a report saying that ratings downgrades for municipal bonds outnumbered upgrades for the seventh consecutive quarter.  

And a few prominent defaults have made the market jittery. ........
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

Merkel weigert sich,die Schulden den Steuerzahlern

6
13.11.10 09:54
aufzubürden schreibt die Irish Times.Dies sei ein Konflikt zwischen der Finanzwelt und den Interessen der politischen Welt
Die Irish Times hat erfahren,dass die Gespräche wegen eines Bailouts für Irland begonnen haben.
Nächsten Dienstag werden sich die europäischen Finanzminister in Brüssel treffen.Die Kosten für 10jährige Kredite sind auf 9,26% gestern gestiegen,gleichzeitig stiegen die Kosten für Spanien und Griechenland...

Merkel in Seoul:“We cannot keep constantly explaining to our voters and our citizens why the taxpayer should bear the cost of certain risks and not those people who have earned a lot of money from taking those risks.”

European Commission chief José Manuel Barroso moved to shore up confidence in Ireland by saying euro countries stand prepared to provide emergency aid if required, but officials stressed the Government has not asked for such assistance.

The Irish Times has established, however, that informal contacts are under way between Brussels, Berlin and other capitals to assess their readiness to activate the €750 billion rescue fund in the event of an application from Dublin.

Amid a loss of market confidence in Ireland, political anxiety in Europe centres on the fragility of the Government’s position as it prepares to extract €6 billion in cutbacks and tax increases in the budget and a total of €15 billion in the four-year recovery plan. Further concern surrounds the position of Ireland’s banks, whose shares have fallen steadily in recent days amid fears the €45 billion bailout bill might rise.

Although some diplomats say it is to Ireland’s advantage that the Government is not at present borrowing from the investors, fear of contagion emerged again yesterday as the premium on Spanish and Italian debt jumped to record levels.

With the single currency falling to a one-month low against the dollar, euro-zone finance ministers will discuss Ireland’s position at their monthly meeting next Tuesday in Brussels. As 10-year borrowing costs reached 9.26 per cent yesterday, Ireland is seen to be at the centre of renewed market turbulence. “What is important to know is that we have all the essential instruments in place in the EU and euro zone to act if necessary,” Mr Barroso said......

Trichet ist der einzige Käufer der Pigs- Staatsanleihen schreibt Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-12/...-debt-crisis-worsens.html

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is the buyer of only resort as the euro area’s bond market melts down.

Just six months after he threw out his rule book to prevent Greece’s debt crisis from splintering the euro area, the 67-year old Frenchman may again be the only policy maker able to prevent the collapse in Irish and Portuguese bonds from spreading. That may require him to ignore opposition from Bundesbank President Axel Weber to the ECB’s bond-buying program and expand purchases of sovereign assets, according to Citigroup Inc. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

The pressure on the Frankfurt-based ECB reflects its status as the only institution in the 27-nation European Union able to act fast enough to placate bondholders. The premium investors charge to hold Irish and Portuguese debt over German bunds reached records yesterday and the euro today fell to a six-week low against the dollar.
“The ECB’s lack of action is puzzling to say the least and begs the question as to whether it’s fulfilling its financial- stability mandate,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland in London. “The more the ECB waits, the bigger the purchase program will have to be.” ....


Gleichzeitig ziehen die Kunden ihre Einlagen von der Bank of Ireland ab
www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/...224283235515.html
...The bank’s loan-to-deposit ratio deteriorated from 145 per cent to 160 per cent since the end of June due to the greater than expected exodus of corporate deposits in August and September....
Der USA Bären-Thread Malko07
Malko07:

#71161: Besonders in Zeiten wie diesen

11
13.11.10 10:05
ist die Geldkursseite ein schönes Propagandamittel. Der Wunsch irgend etwas geschenkt zu bekommen geht aber meistens nicht in Erfüllung. Auf der Briefkursseite muss man auch das anstehende Volumen beachten. Brauchbar sind allerdings nur die Preise mit denen ein Handel abgeschlossen wurde. Während dieses spezifisches Problem bei Aktien aus großen Indizes wie z.B. dem DAX fast keine Rolle spielt, sind Anleihen prinzipiell wenig liquide und es läuft deshalb auch vieles abseits den Börsen. Während man mit deutschen Staatsanleihen noch relativ gut spielen kann, ist es mit Anleihen von kleineren oder unverschuldeten Staaten praktisch unmöglich. So gibt es z.B. manchmal große Kursschwankungen bei illiquiden Anleihen von "Problemstaaten" bei bestimmten Laufzeiten, zu denen am gleichen  Tag weltweit kein einzigen Stück an einer Börse gehandelt wurde. Gespielt wird dann mittels Derivaten, welche manchmal ein vielfaches des Basiswertes repräsentieren. Und dann gibt es noch institutionelle Anleger, welche in ihren Anlageregeln auf derartige Spielereien referenzieren und so gezwungen werden sich selbst zu schädigen.
Der USA Bären-Thread permanent
permanent:

Griechen droht weitere Sparorgie

9
13.11.10 10:39

Haushaltsdefizit noch nicht im Griff

Griechen droht weitere Sparorgie

Griechenland spart und spart - aber es reicht trotzdem noch nicht. Die sozialistische Regierung in Athen greift abermals zum Rotstift. Neben dem Sparen gibt es weitere Steuererhöhungen. Vor allem die Heraufsetzung der Mehrwertsteuer wird den Griechen richtig wehtun....»

Der USA Bären-Thread permanent
permanent:

The Shrinking House: Downsizing the American Dream

5
13.11.10 10:42

The Shrinking House: Downsizing the American Dream

HOME, HOUSE, HOUSING, HOUSING MARKET, REAL ESTATE, RESIDENTIAL, FUTURE, SUPERSIZE, DOWNSIZE, AMERICAN DREAM, MCMANSION, MANSION, HOUSING CRISIS, CONSUMERS, ECONOMY, RECESSION, ECONOMIC CRISIS, HUMOR, BLOGS, CNBC BLOGS, THERE MUST BE A PONY, THERE MUST BE A PONY IN HERE SOMEWHERE, PONY BLOG
Posted By: Cindy Perman | CNBC.com Staff Writer
CNBC.com
| 10 Nov 2010 | 05:43 PM ET

Home ownership has long been a symbol of the American Dream and for a while there, we SUPERSIZED it. But since the recession, we’ve been downsizing it.

 

The median home size in America was near 2,300 square feet at the peak of the market in 2007, with many McMansions topping 10,000 square feet.

Today, the median home size has dropped to about 2,100 square feet and more than one-third of Americans say their ideal home size is actually under 2,000 square feet, according to a survey by real-estate site Trulia.

“The whole glow of bigness kind of wore off all of a sudden,” said Sarah Susanka, an architect and the author of “The Not So Big House” book series.

Builders are responding by chopping out rooms that people just don’t use anymore, particularly formal living rooms and sitting rooms.

“You’re not having the king and queen of England to dinner but Joe and Kathy from next door — and they’d prefer to be in your informal space!” Susanka said.

Even media rooms, game rooms and libraries are on the way out, added Boyce Thompson, the editorial director for Builder magazine.

 

Every year, Builder does a concept home that represents where the market’s at. This year, it was called “A Home for the New Economy,” which weighed in at around 1,700 square feet – and, interestingly, was only designed virtually. (Take a virtual tour.)

Instead of having a formal living room and a family room, the Home for the New Economy has one big “great room” and instead of a home office, an extra bedroom on the main floor doubles as a guest room/home office—or even an in-law suite. They were even careful to chop out unnecessary hall space.

“The key today is to provide flexible space,” Thompson said.

So, instead of a game room, you may have a gaming area in part of your great room. Instead of a library, you may have a reading nook.

The “proliferation of bathrooms” is also on the way out, Susanka adds. For a while there, it seemed, every room had its own bathroom and people just didn’t use them. It’s time “to bring some sanity back to the equation,” she said.

But just because a house is small, doesn’t mean it has to feel small. Architects are finding all kinds of design tricks to make a home feel bigger, from varying the ceiling height — seeing that a ceiling is higher in the next room makes it feel even bigger — or putting a direct line of sight to an outdoor space like a porch or deck. As your eye sees past the room to the outside, the space feels bigger.

The Front Porch Makes a Comeback

It’s not just the inside of the house that’s changing, it’s the outside, too. The yards are smaller, with many developments favoring shared green spaces over big private yards.

And, the front porch is back. Builders are increasingly moving the garage to the back of the house and adding a big porch on the front.

Seeing a big porch through the dining room, and a shared green space beyond that adds to the illusion that you are getting more — and it makes you want to get out there and reconnect with your neighbors.

At the height of the market it was all about “suburban sprawl,” with everyone in their back yards, with their own deck, their own swingset, their own pool — and barely knowing their neighbors. Today, the buzz word is “smart growth” — smaller more sustainable communities that really have a sense of community.

 

That’s partly because it’s better for the environment and community building, but there’s a more practical reason.

“Most households now have two people working,” said John McIlwain, a senior resident fellow at the Urban Land Institute. “Who wants to spend their time cleaning their house … or taking care of big yards … when they have kids to take care of?”  

He said a magnet on his daughter-in-law’s fridge sums it up: “A clean home is a sign of a wasted life!”

It’s not just young people, either — empty nesters don’t want to spend their weekend mowing the lawn either!

This shift is evident in Denver’s Stapleton neighborhood, a new urbanist community built on the site of the old airport, which is meant to bring that suburban, small-town feel into a neighborhood within the city limits.

Here, their yards are tiny by design and no one has a pool — not even the million-dollar homes. Instead, they have an 80-acre shared park, aptly named Central Park, smaller “pocket parks” that become shared yards and three — soon to be four — public pools.

The Friday Afternoon Club

The concept may seem offputting to some, who may not think they want to know their neighbors. But there’s a sense of community there that you scarcely find elsewhere, with passersby saying hello to families on the porch and making plans to head out to a pocket park to play, or attend a free concert or movie in the park.

“People have just accepted the tradeoff,” said Denise Gammon, a vice president at Stapleton’s developer, Forest City Enterprises. “They think, ‘I don’t have a big, private yard, but boy do I have this amazing range of open space that’s completely accessible to me,’” she explained.

“It creates a really cohesive community,” added Heidi Majerik, the director of development at Forest City, who lives and works in Stapleton. “We get 1,000 to 2,000 people at weekend events and there are tons of informal events like the Friday Afternoon Club, where people bring out chairs, wine and appetizers and the kids play,” she explained.

“There’s a lot of movement toward neighborhoods like this,” Susanka said.

Susanka is currently designing a home in a similar neighborhood, Libertyville, Ill., just north of Chicago.

Neighborhoods like Stapleton and Libertyville are more densely populated but more vibrant, highly walkable and have charming downtown areas — something the next crop of homebuyers is demanding.

“Gen Y is looking for that kind of vibrant downtown flavor with smaller homes,” Susanka said. “They realize that there’s a value to being connected to one another but still maintain their privacy. There’s a balance between privacy and community.”

This new love affair with the front porch reflects that desire for community, and extends into the downtown area.

“They’ll go from their house down to the local restaurants, which then becomes like a part of their house,” she explained.

It's 'Back to the Future': Green Edition

It feels a lot like “Back to the Future,” with this return to small-town life. But there’s one major difference: Energy efficiency.

If it’s one thing the recession taught us, it’s to stretch our dollars further and no where is that more evident than in energy consumption.

Energy consumption has moved from an option when building a new home to the standard when it comes to appliances, windows, furnaces and climate control.

“People are really concerned after the energy scare of 2008 — they’re worried about what it’s going to cost to run their house,” Thompson said. “No one wants a gas guzzler — especially because it impairs resale down the road.”

Among the energy-smart options you may see down the road, that are just being experimented with now, are master controls for a home’s energy efficiency (much like the master control for the lights, heat and stereo) as well as private wind turbines in the backyard that may be connected to the grid — or take the home completely energy independent.

Of course, there will always be some people who want that big backyard and the fact that land prices are so cheap right now will make that more accessible for those who want it, McIlwain said.

One thing’s for sure: The memory of the recession will continue to impact the decisions people make when it comes to the home for years to come.

People are asking themselves, “How are we going to make this house in proportion to the next economic downturn, so that we’re not out on a limb?” Susanka said.

Der USA Bären-Thread permanent
permanent:

Wie Ebay & Co. dem Fiskus ein Schnippchen schlagen

13
13.11.10 10:48

Ebay, Google, Tipp24 - viele Internet-Unternehmen betreiben ihr Deutschlandgeschäft inzwischen aus dem Ausland. Das spart Steuern und schützt vor Ärger mit Strafverfolgungsbehörden. Länder wie Luxemburg und Großbritannien locken die Web-Firmen mit laxeren Gesetzen.

Die für Deutschland zuständigen Mitarbeiter des Apple-Ablegers iTunes sitzen mittendrin: Auf der gegenüberliegenden Straßenseite des digitalen Musikladens steht das Hauptquartier des Stahlriesen ArcelorMittal, um die Ecke eine Niederlassung der Privatbank Hauck & Aufhäuser, und in zwei Gehminuten ist man dem städtischen Rummel ins Petruss-Tal entflohen, das sich wie eine grüne Oase durch die Stadt Luxemburg zieht.Die traumhafte Lage allerdings ist nicht der Grund, warum sich iTunes Deutschland fernab der Bundesrepublik angesiedelt hat: In Luxemburg zahlen Unternehmen nur 15 Prozent Mehrwertsteuer, den niedrigsten Satz in der EU.

Der Musikhändler ist eines von vielen Internet-Unternehmen, die ihre deutschen Kunden vom Ausland aus bedienen. Niedrige Steuern sind nicht das einzige Argument für die Republikflucht und Luxemburg nicht das einzige Asylland für die Branche: Auch Irland bietet niedrige Steuern, in Großbritannien locken laxe Glücksspiel-, Jugendschutz- und Datenschutzgesetze. "Steuern, Datenschutz, Jugendschutz - die deutsche Politik berücksichtigt nicht, dass das Internet keine Staatsgrenzen hat", klagt Ivo Ivanov vom Verband der deutschen Internetwirtschaft (Eco).

Anders als bei Industrieunternehmen, für die kurze Transportwege Kostenvorteile bedeuten, spielt es für virtuelle Dienstleister keine Rolle, wo sie ihren Standort haben. Via Datenautobahn lassen sich Musik, Filme oder andere Dienste in Sekundenbruchteilen zum Kunden bringen.

Der Suchriese Google hat seine Europazentrale in Irland eingerichtet. "Vorrangig aus Steuergründen", vermutet der frühere Yahoo - und Google-Manager Rob Jonas, der heute das Europageschäft des weltweit zweitgrößten Handy-Werbers Inmobi leitet. So sind die Unternehmenssteuern auf der Grünen Insel halb so hoch wie hierzulande. Auch Microsoft nutzt das: 2009 baute der Konzern für 500 Millionen Dollar einen Serverpark in Dublin.

 

Aus Luxemburg heraus betreuen heute neben iTunes auch der Online-Auktionator Ebay, das Internet-Kaufhaus Amazon und der Web-Telefondienst Skype ihre Kundschaft in Deutschland und anderen EU-Staaten. Die Differenz zwischen der niedrigen Mehrwertsteuer in Luxemburg und dem Satz im Land der Nutzer streichen sie als Zusatzgewinn ein. Bei deutschen Kunden sind das vier Prozent vom Verkaufspreis, bei Schweden sogar zehn Prozent.

Dem deutschen Fiskus gehen so allein bei Apples Musikdownloads schätzungsweise acht Millionen Euro durch die Lappen. Zusammen mit der Mehrwertsteuer der anderen in Luxemburg ansässigen Web-Firmen dürfte sich der Ausfall auf einen dreistelligen Millionenbetrag pro Jahr addieren. Die EU will darum das Steuerschlupfloch zum 1. Januar 2015 stopfen. Dann müssen Firmen Web-Dienstleistungen im Land des Kunden versteuern.

Vorbei am deutschen Fiskus

Der USA Bären-Thread permanent
permanent:

Zwangsanleihen für die Großanleger

10
13.11.10 10:51

Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) kauft Staatsanleihen, vor allem aus den Wackel-Ländern Griechenland, Portugal und Irland. Auch marode Euro-Staaten sollen noch zu tragbaren Zinsen Geld am Kapitalmarkt bekommen. Bis Anfang November kaufte die EZB für 63,5 Milliarden Euro Bonds – Peanuts, verglichen mit dem, was Bernanke auf den Tisch legt.

Regeln drücken Zins

Das Problem ist: Die Käufe der Notenbanken wirken nur für den Moment. Kaufen sie nicht weiter, ziehen die Renditen an.

Viel nachhaltiger wirkt da die Regulierung von Großanlegern. Die EU-Finanzminister werkeln gerade an neuen Regeln für die Versicherungsbranche, die so kompliziert sind wie ihr Name: Solvency II. Wie sie funktionieren? Ganz einfach: Ab 2013 sollen Europas Versicherer ihre für Kunden angelegten Gelder mit mehr Eigenkapital unterlegen. Je riskanter die Anlage, desto mehr Eigenkapital ist gefordert – für Aktien planen die Regulierer aktuell bis zu 40 und für Immobilien bis zu 25 Prozent der Anlagesumme. Nur EU-Staatsanleihen sollen nicht mit Eigenkapital unterlegt werden. Sie gelten als sicher – ja, auch Anleihen aus dem hochgradig ausfallgefährdeten Griechenland.

Letzteres bringt den Grundgedanken der Regeln ins Wanken: Eigentlich sollen sie die Konzerne krisenfester machen. Sie sollen trotz möglicher Verluste in Zukunft immer noch genügend Kapital haben, um Kunden auszuzahlen.

http://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/...anleihen-fuer-die-grossanleger-446598/

Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

Ich zweifle an der These globaler Inflationierung

9
13.11.10 11:17
Peter Schiff schreibt in Zerohedge, dass alle Notenbanken der Welt notgedrungen in die Fußstapfen Bernankes treten müssen, damit ihre Währungen nicht zu stark gegen den Dollar aufwerten (was Wettbewerbsnachteile im globalen Markt schaffen würde). Dabei würde den Amis entgegenkommen, dass auch andere überschuldete Nationen (= fast alle) eine Interesse an zumindest leichter Inflation haben. Der Endeffekt sei kollektive Inflationierung, die den Wert von Papierwährungen weltweit aushöhlt. Man solle daher Gold kaufen:

The end result is that the entire civilized world is locked in a race to inflate, and no fiat currency is truly safe. In my brokerage business, I advise clients to buy companies - not currencies - in countries that I believe will thrive in the war's aftermath. China could dump the peg tomorrow and, after a period of adjustment and write-offs, would continue to grow apace. The UK, on the other hand, is happy to be locked in a competitive devaluation as it helps the government avoid imminent default while it puts through budget reforms. But regardless of their strategic positions, all major central banks will likely engage in some money printing to keep their currencies level with the rapidly devaluing US dollar - until the greenback loses its reserve status.... As the Fed seeks to blow up the global monetary system, I take comfort in the fact that gold cannot fight a currency war because it is not a currency.

www.zerohedge.com/article/...-what-currency-war-will-mean-gold

Meine Gegenthese: Die Amis schaufeln sich mit dem Dollargedrucke ihr eigenes Grab. Es scheint der letzte Notnagel zu sein, um in USA Deflation zu verhindern. Die Welt dürfte aber, wie auch der Telegraph schreibt, nicht bereit sein, gemeinsam mit den Amis ins Währungsgrab zu steigen.

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...drawing-to-a-close.html

Wer auf Gold setzt, baut indirekt auf die Allmacht der Amis, den anderen Nationen ihre Inflationierungspolitik "aufzuzwingen". Diese Macht aber werden die Amis mMn nicht haben, weil es im Ausland zu viele besonnene Leute gibt (etwa Schäuble und Brüderle bei uns), die nicht mitspielen werden. Sie werden nicht akzeptieren, dass der Herausgeber der Weltwährung (USA) ebendiese Weltwährung (den Dollar) als Werkzeug zum Kurieren US-interner Missstände missbraucht - und damit den Schwarzen Peter der Restwelt zuschiebt.

Unter dieser Prämisse dürften auch künftige Währungsgipfel zu diplomatischen Kriegsschauplätzen werden.

FAZIT: Die Ami-Hegemonie dürfte, wie auch der Telegraph schreibt, zu Ende gehen, da sie am "Widerstand der Vernünftigen" scheitern wird.
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

In dem Sinne

7
13.11.10 11:48

sehe ich auffallende Parallelen zwischen der laufenden "Inflationserwartungs-Blase" und der vor zehn Jahren grassierenden Dot.com-Blase.

Die Parallelen sind:

1. Massen-Hype, den die Medien und in USA auch die Politik massiv anheizt;

2. Von diesem hochgetriebene Assetklassen (vor allem Rohstoffe und Gold, aber auch Aktien);

3. Analysten, die schamlos zu Höchstständen die hochgetriebenen Assets als Kauf empfehlen, weil ihre Arbeitgeber ständig neue Fonds ausgeben, um an der Blase zu verdienen.

4. Die übliche Neigung zur Gehirnwäsche mittels Totschlagargumenten:

 

  • 1929: Eisenbahn und Radio sind "die Zukunft"
  • 2000: Telekom und Internet sind "die Zukunft"
  • 2010: Alles geht den Bach runter, Gold und Rohstoffe sind "die Zukunft"

 

Der USA Bären-Thread pfeifenlümmel
pfeifenlümmel:

Silber ist dem Gold

6
13.11.10 13:36
schon weit voraus!
Der USA Bären-Thread 358266
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

QE schadet mehr als es gut tut

6
13.11.10 15:00
pragcap.com/early-evidence-qe
1) Equity markets have rallied, but this is of little significance.  There is no evidence supporting an equity market “wealth effect” according to Robert Shiller  and James Bianco. Bianco’s research actually finds that the corresponding commodity price increases are more likely to be a net negative for consumers.  And even if there is a “wealth effect” it only helps the rich because the middle class are only minority holders of equities on the whole.  Of course, this isn’t a crisis of the wealthy so this looks like another case of failing trickle down economics at best.  It’s also worth nothing that stock prices are nominal wealth so intentionally distorting prices from fundamentals is no recipe for sustained wealth.  Keeping equity prices “higher than they otherwise would be” only diminishes the Fed’s credibility while also creating distortions in markets.

2) The 10 year bond yield is HIGHER since the Jackson Hole speech. The 30 year bond yield is up 50 bps since the Jackson Hole speech. Therefore, there is unlikely to be a sustained refinancing effect and no increased demand to take on more debt (not that this would work in a balance sheet recession anyhow, but Mr. Bernanke fails to acknowledge that this is a demand side problem). 74% of all consumer debt is mortgage based so it’s baffling that they are targeting the short end of the yield curve. Bernanke wants to stimulate borrowing, but his actions aren’t backing up his talk.  He is focusing his efforts on the short end of the curve where rates are already very low – astoundingly confusing and misguided policy.

3) Many commodities have rallied in recent weeks which will do nothing but put pressure on input costs and ultimately make life more difficult for the US consumer (assuming these costs even get passed along, which is unlikely due to weak end demand).  The consumer will either be hit with higher costs which they can’t afford to sustain or US corporations will continue to be hesitant to hire the millions that need jobs because they are too busy protecting their margins.  On the one hand, this one of the few certainties we have regarding QE – it hurts corporate margins by causing a speculative ramp up in commodity prices.

4) QE IS NOT MONEY PRINTING so there is no reason to believe that it will cause anything more than expectations of future inflation.  When the Fed implements a policy of QE they are merely purchasing an asset that already existed and swapping it with a deposit.  There is some debate over the price changes before these transactions take place and whether the Fed is buying at higher prices, but this is offset by the fact that the Fed is removing a high yielding asset for a lower yielding asset.  In this case, they are removing 1.2% paper (on average) in exchange for reserves that will earn just 0.25%.  Remember, in QE1 the Fed removed over ~$47.5B in interest income from the private sector.  So if anything, this has a marginal deflationary impact.

5) Borrowing didn’t pick-up after QE1 and there’s certainly no signs of a borrowing boom in recent data.  Of course, with real estate in the midst of a double dip there’s unlikely to be a surge in borrowing in the coming quarters anyhow.  As Robert Shiller detailed, the “wealth effect” of a housing boom can be quite substantial. With home prices now declining again we’re actually seeing the opposite of a “wealth effect”. In other words, the majority of Americans don’t feel better because Wall Street rallies each and every day.  They feel worse because the asset they come home to every night, the asset that accounts for the majority of their net worth, has declined in value.
......I am not sure why Mr. Bernanke is worthy of any praise.  He did not foresee this crisis.  He responded too late when it was clear that a crisis was on our doorstep.  And when he finally did respond he saved the banking system and left the American public out to dry.  Thus far the evidence surrounding his latest tool looks poor at best and it in fact appears as though it could be causing more harm than good....

...it looks to me like a whole lot of investors are deep into the risk trade without the fundamentals to back it up.  They’ve placed a bet on a Fed Chief who has failed at nearly every step of his tenure.  A great deal of leveraged optimism has been priced into the market based on this “non-event“.  I do not know if I have ever seen the market rally so much around an event that involved more misguided and inaccurate analysis.
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

bloomberg:Irland wird gedrängt zum Bailout

7
13.11.10 15:07
www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-12/...sis-threatens-region.html
...In a conference call of European Central Bank officials around noon Frankfurt time yesterday, Ireland was pressed to seek outside help within days, the person said on condition of anonymity. Separately, a European Union official said a request for assistance was likely even as Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan told RTE Radio that such a call “makes no sense” as the government is fully funded to mid-2011.

Irish bonds rose from a record low yesterday, gaining for the first time in 14 days as traders bet a bailout was near. Prime Minister Brian Cowen said for the first time that he is working with fellow EU leaders as “there are issues affecting the wider euro area” and that they are trying to “ensure that the bond markets respond positively to the euro.” He reiterated that his debt-strapped country has not sought cash. ...

An ECB spokeswoman declined to comment and the Finance Ministry in Dublin said no talks on emergency funds were under way. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, speaking today in Tutzing, Germany, declined to comment on Ireland.

IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said he was prepared to help. “If at one point in time, tomorrow, in two months or two years, the Irish want support from the IMF, we will be ready,” he told reporters today in Yokohama, Japan.

....A decision by Ireland to use the European Financial Stability Facility would be a “circuit breaker” for the market turmoil and boost the euro, Emma Lawson, a Hong Kong-based currency strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a report yesterday. .....
Der USA Bären-Thread Kicky
Kicky:

Silbermanipulationen

5
13.11.10 15:33
Kauft Silber ,jeder eine Unze und J:P:Morgan,der Hauptmanipilator des Silberanstiegs ,wird gezwungen seine Shortpositionen zu covern ,und das treibt J.P.Morgan aus dem Geschäft raus
www.zerohedge.com/article/...ilver-show-too-big-fails-who-boss
www.zerohedge.com/article/...ences-says-manipulation-should-be
   * BN CFTC CHILTON MAKES STATEMENT ON SILVER MARKET
   * BN * SILVER PRICES SUBJECT TO "FRAUDULENT" INFLUENCES, CHILTON SAY
   * BN *"REPEATED ATTEMPTS" MADE TO INFLUENCE SILVER MARKET, CHILTON
   * BN *SILVER MANIPULATION SHOULD BE PROSECUTED, CHILTON SAYS

The U.S. futures regulator laid out plans on Tuesday for how it could use new and beefed-up legal tools to foil traders who seek to manipulate prices or defraud investors.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it also wants to ask for comments on whether to crack down on certain practices used by high-frequency traders -- such as "quote-stuffing" -- but it stopped short of immediately proposing new rules specifically aimed at algorithmic trading.
Included are "spoofing", whereby traders make bids or offers but cancel them before execution, and "banging the close" -- acquiring a substantial position leading up to the close of trade, then offsetting the position in the final moments to manipulate the closing price.

The agency has no obligation on whether to go further, but wants to gather more comments during the next two months about whether it should close a potential loophole in the spoofing ban, or prohibit any other practices deemed disruptive.

That will include "quote stuffing" -- flooding the market with large numbers of rapid-fire orders and then canceling them almost immediately -- a practice that some have argued contributed to the May 6 stock market "flash crash.".....

www.zerohedge.com/article/...organs-silver-manipulation-scheme
www.gata.org/node/8466
On March 23, 2010, GATA Director Adrian Douglas was contacted by a whistleblower by the name of Andrew Maguire. Maguire is a metals trader in London. He has been told first-hand by traders working for JPMorganChase that JPMorganChase manipulates the precious metals markets, and they have bragged to how they make money doing so.

In November 2009 Maguire contacted the CFTC enforcement division to report this criminal activity. He described in detail the way JPMorgan Chase signals to the market its intention to take down the precious metals. Traders recognize these signals and make money shorting the metals alongside JPM. Maguire explained how there are routine market manipulations at the time of option expiry, non-farm payroll data releases, and COMEX contract rollover, as well as ad-hoc events. ...

www.zerohedge.com/article/...morgan-silver-market-manipulation

.....Per Steve Berman, co-counsel of plaintiff law firm Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro: "The practice of naked short selling has long been a serious issue on Wall Street. What we know about the scope and intent of JP Morgan and HSBC's actions in this short-selling scheme dwarfs any other similar attempt to manipulate a commodities market."
Der USA Bären-Thread Anti Lemming
Anti Lemming:

# 144

8
13.11.10 16:01
Für mich bringt CNBC in # 144 den typischen Propaganda-Artikel, mit dem der Inflationierungs-Hype, den die Fed für ihre Politik des Asset-Hochtreibens braucht, in die Hirne gehämmert werden soll. Die "Warnung" vor Inflation wirkt auf mich sehr scheinheilig und doppelbödig.

Motto: "Seht her, an jedem Kiosk und Automaten merkt ihr, dass alles laufend teurer wird. Jeder sieht und spürt es, also ist es wirklich so. Deshalb droht uns bald eine noch viel stärkere Inflation.....Kauft Ölaktien, um euch davor zu schützen..."

Durch diese Art von Gehirnwäsche soll offenbar ein klassisches Schneeball-System losgetreten werden (Erwartung treibt Preise, gestiegene Preise erhöhen die Erwartung...), das sich verselbständigt und zu einer Sich-selbst-erfüllenden-Prophezeihung wird. Und siehe da, plötzlich steigen auch US-Hauspreise wieder (weil ja ALLES teurer wird), es gibt keine Zwangsversteigerungen mehr wegen neg. EK, wie durch ein Wunder werden die US-Bankenbilanzen wieder sauber - und selbst die IKB bekommt eines fernen Tages ihr Geld aus US-Schrottanleihen zurück.

Kurzum: Die Bernanke'sche Münchhausen-Nummer, mit der die Amis sich am Inflationsschopf aus dem Schuldensumpf zu ziehen hoffen.

In Wirklichkeit sitzt USA in einer Deflationsfalle - und aus der kommt das das Land mit solchen Hütchenspieler-Tricks auch nicht heraus. Nicht einmal die gedruckten 600 Mrd. aus QE2 reichen zur Inflationierung aus, wenn anderweitig Kredite in noch größerem Umfang faul werden (etwa durch weiter sinkende Hauspreise). Dann übertrifft die Geldvernichtung das Geldgedrucke.

Es gibt zweifellos eine Rohstoff-Blase - nicht zuletzt infolge dieser Propaganda - , und die Preise schlagen auch auf Lebensmittel durch. Doch sie wird wegen der negativen Auswirkungen auf den Konsum und die Gewinnmargen der Firmen keinen Bestand haben (wie schon 2008 nicht) und bald wieder in sich zusammenfallen. Das Poppen könnte bereits letzten Freitag begonnen haben, als Metalle wie Zink um 7 % an einem Tag verloren.

Roubini hat Recht, dass die wahre Gefahr für USA Deflation ist - wie sie typischerweise auf geplatzte große Kreditblasen folgt (Japan-Syndrom). Und diese Deflation lässt sich, anders als Bernanke in seinem 600-Milliarden-Geballer wähnt, auch nicht durch Rohstoff- und sonstige Blasen aus der Welt schaffen.

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