Jahrelang trendlos Seitwärts hat die Kapitalkurve abgeflacht. Ist Trendfolge ein Auslaufmodell?
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Dax & Gold
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Wenn man sich die Kapitalkurve anschaut, sollte speziell beim Gold der Ausbruch in der neuen Trend anstehen. Aktuelle Trendfolgeposition Long.
(Verkleinert auf 29%)
Es fehlt Fukushima bei den Events. Das war ein ziemlicher downer und eine Warnung vor dem 30% Absacker 2011. Also es gab ja schon immer mal langjährige Seitwärtsphasen und just wenn man an den HS Parameter dreht, gehts trendig weiter.
Gibt es noch andere Trendfolger hier mit Zeitrahmen Monate bis Jahre?
Gibt es noch andere Trendfolger hier mit Zeitrahmen Monate bis Jahre?
Hier mein Trendfolgemodell für den HUI. Die hui ETF tracken ganz gut und es wied kein Hebel benötigt. Entspricht derzeit etwa Gold x Hebel2. Hier auch Aufwärtstrend. Beim DAX ist die Sache leider nicht so klar. Da ich Pos. in Gold ETC habe, keine Pos. in HUI ETF.
Blau: im Profit ausgestoppt
Schwarz: mit Verlust ausgestoppt.
Falls jemand ähnlich TF handelt, könnten wir uns austauschen.
Blau: im Profit ausgestoppt
Schwarz: mit Verlust ausgestoppt.
Falls jemand ähnlich TF handelt, könnten wir uns austauschen.
(Verkleinert auf 66%)
Backwardation voraus und noch im Aufwärtstrend. Als Trendfolger hat man Rohöl erfolgreich gehandelt, wobei beim ETC der Stop bei 47$ (bruch der Trendlinie & lower low) einen kleinen Verlust darstellte. Durchaus vertretbar bei diesen beiden Gewinnern.
(Verkleinert auf 56%)
Den meisten ist es nicht möglich die schönen Buchgewinne dahinschmelzen zu sehen wenn wieder eine Gegenbewegung läuft. Das ist aber unabdingbar. Der Stop muß sehr weit weg sein und manchmal wird aus einem Buchgewinn wieder ein Verlust. Es würde mich interessieren ob noch jemand so handelt .
Nicht deutsche Börse. Na, ist schon spät und der Fernseher läuft....
Handeln die deutsche börse in usa? Mal sehen ob ich ein chart auftreiben kann. Bis dann.
Handeln die deutsche börse in usa? Mal sehen ob ich ein chart auftreiben kann. Bis dann.
Läft jahre wie am Schnürchen mit kleinem Schlenker.. Sonst wäre es ja auch zu langweilig. Sollte klar sein um was es sich handelt.
(Verkleinert auf 64%)
Die Entwicklung hat viel Arbeit gemacht aber es hat sich gelohnt. Wichtig ist dass es genau umgesetzt wird. Dafür wird der Erfolg am richtigen Umsetzen der Signale gemessen, nicht was man maximal aus einer Bewegung hätte rausholen können. Ich schau auch nicht aufs Geld, sonder auf die erzielten Kästchen (#). Der P&F chart macht aus dem chaotischen auf und ab ein klar strukturieres Muster.
CoT und seasonals... das ganze Gedönse bei futures schenke ich mir denn es ist egal wer oder was nun den Trend befeuert. Ist der Trend aufwärts, gilt es den X zu kaufen und den Stop laaaangsam anzupassen ( higher high, Trendbruch...)
CoT und seasonals... das ganze Gedönse bei futures schenke ich mir denn es ist egal wer oder was nun den Trend befeuert. Ist der Trend aufwärts, gilt es den X zu kaufen und den Stop laaaangsam anzupassen ( higher high, Trendbruch...)
ein gutes CRV größer 5 und Trefferquote um die 55-65% je nach Index
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Der durchschnittliche CRV ist ca. 2:1 bis 2,5:1 wobei bei Gold die Trefferquote in der Vergangenheit deutlich besser war.
seit letzdem Longsignal im HUI.
(Verkleinert auf 96%)
Aktuelle Situation. ETC bereits mit 32% Buchgewinn. SL bleibt weiter unverändert.
LYX0FV rausgenommen"> 
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Am 19.07 geht es in einen neuen Kaffeekontrakt. Nachdem der Ausbruch den Short negiert hat, ist Kaffee nun wie DAX Neutral. Einzige offene Position ist Gold. Kaffeechart in US$:
scaling in erste von 4 Tranchen @ 1,006 $
Gold weiterhin long.
To be continued in a separate blog. This one will from now on cover Gold & DAX/SPX only.
Nun, um vom Goldpreis zu profitieren bietet sich ein MinenETF an. Der HUI:
Macht das Sinn? GD blau ist auch Kauffilter (X < GDblau), Stop < Last Low ✔
Bei dem Großmeister, der mein Handeln geprägt hat. Kein Schwätzer, kein Werber, kein Daddler, sondern ein erfolgreicher Trendfolger.
Herzlichen Dank, Ed Seykota 👏
Herzlichen Dank, Ed Seykota 👏
Stan Kroll, another hero of the trade. Someone pointed out:
Words of wisdom from Stanley Kroll
A fellow trader kindly pointed me in the direction of the works of Stanley Kroll, who was a trader from the early 1960's. He passed away in 1999. He was a trend follower who preached simplicity, and was greatly influenced by two books I have quoted from in the past - namely Edwin Lefevre's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (the biography of Jesse Livermore) and The Art of War by Sun Tzu.
Below are some words of wisdom from Kroll's book Dragon and Bulls: Profitable Investment Strategies for Trading Stocks and Commodities:
"While a consistent, viable strategy is part is clearly the main-stay of successful speculation, three additional traits are required: discipline, discipline and discipline."
"Your with-the-trend position could result in a big favourable move, so you should try and remain aboard for the ride. By premising that every with-the-trend move could result in the big move, you will be encouraged to resist the many temptations to trade for the minor swings, or to scalp against-the-trend trades."
"Maintain your position until you are stopped out, and your trend analysis indicates that the trend has reversed."
"We invariably find a convenient way to rationalize our miscalculations and poor trades."
"If you make money in your trading, stand up and accept the accolades and the financial rewards. But if you lose money, you alone should accept the responsibility."
"You must have confidence to trade in the market, because the most serious loss of all is the 'loss' of confidence in your ability to trade independently and successfully."
"One of the reasons underlying this preoccupation with the fear of losing is that the speculator often overtrades, both in terms of the size of the position as well as the turnover activity of the account. It is essential that the trader control and overcome these urges to overtrade or overposition."
On the early 1990's uptrend in the Hang Seng Index: "A large body of speculators had succumbed to a combination of undisciplined wishful thinking and a desire to be short in the market (they had liquidated long positions prematurely because prices were 'too high' so they would now prove their acumen by getting aboard the short side). The great quantity of 'red ink' that accompanies these short positions was additional evidence, as if traders needed such additional proof, that trying to pick off tops or bottoms, against a strongly entrenched bull market trend in invariably dangerous to one's financial health and well-being."
"The astute operator will ignore the plethora of rumours, pit gossip and what generally passes for market news. He will maintain his focus on the real technical factors underlying each market and on whatever disciplined strategy and risk control technique has worked best for him and for his particular style of investment or trading. He will not lose sight of the old Wall Street axiom:
'Those that that know don't tell; those that tell don't know.'"
"The trend in the market is a lot like the weather; it is what it is, and there's not much anyone can do to change it. Or, as Mark Twain once said, 'Everybody talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it.' So, if the weather looks like rain, you wear a raincoat or carry an umbrella, whether you like it or not. Similarly, if the trend of a market is down, you play it short, or aside; and if the trend is up, you play it long, or aside - because you can't change the basic trend direction of the market. You either go with the trend, or you suffer the probable losses in trying to buck the trend."
For those interested in trend following, I would highly recommend trying to find a copy of Kroll's work. The anecdotes included of his trading experiences and the recollection of a discussion with Market Wizard Larry Hite alone are worth reading
Words of wisdom from Stanley Kroll
A fellow trader kindly pointed me in the direction of the works of Stanley Kroll, who was a trader from the early 1960's. He passed away in 1999. He was a trend follower who preached simplicity, and was greatly influenced by two books I have quoted from in the past - namely Edwin Lefevre's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (the biography of Jesse Livermore) and The Art of War by Sun Tzu.
Below are some words of wisdom from Kroll's book Dragon and Bulls: Profitable Investment Strategies for Trading Stocks and Commodities:
"While a consistent, viable strategy is part is clearly the main-stay of successful speculation, three additional traits are required: discipline, discipline and discipline."
"Your with-the-trend position could result in a big favourable move, so you should try and remain aboard for the ride. By premising that every with-the-trend move could result in the big move, you will be encouraged to resist the many temptations to trade for the minor swings, or to scalp against-the-trend trades."
"Maintain your position until you are stopped out, and your trend analysis indicates that the trend has reversed."
"We invariably find a convenient way to rationalize our miscalculations and poor trades."
"If you make money in your trading, stand up and accept the accolades and the financial rewards. But if you lose money, you alone should accept the responsibility."
"You must have confidence to trade in the market, because the most serious loss of all is the 'loss' of confidence in your ability to trade independently and successfully."
"One of the reasons underlying this preoccupation with the fear of losing is that the speculator often overtrades, both in terms of the size of the position as well as the turnover activity of the account. It is essential that the trader control and overcome these urges to overtrade or overposition."
On the early 1990's uptrend in the Hang Seng Index: "A large body of speculators had succumbed to a combination of undisciplined wishful thinking and a desire to be short in the market (they had liquidated long positions prematurely because prices were 'too high' so they would now prove their acumen by getting aboard the short side). The great quantity of 'red ink' that accompanies these short positions was additional evidence, as if traders needed such additional proof, that trying to pick off tops or bottoms, against a strongly entrenched bull market trend in invariably dangerous to one's financial health and well-being."
"The astute operator will ignore the plethora of rumours, pit gossip and what generally passes for market news. He will maintain his focus on the real technical factors underlying each market and on whatever disciplined strategy and risk control technique has worked best for him and for his particular style of investment or trading. He will not lose sight of the old Wall Street axiom:
'Those that that know don't tell; those that tell don't know.'"
"The trend in the market is a lot like the weather; it is what it is, and there's not much anyone can do to change it. Or, as Mark Twain once said, 'Everybody talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it.' So, if the weather looks like rain, you wear a raincoat or carry an umbrella, whether you like it or not. Similarly, if the trend of a market is down, you play it short, or aside; and if the trend is up, you play it long, or aside - because you can't change the basic trend direction of the market. You either go with the trend, or you suffer the probable losses in trying to buck the trend."
For those interested in trend following, I would highly recommend trying to find a copy of Kroll's work. The anecdotes included of his trading experiences and the recollection of a discussion with Market Wizard Larry Hite alone are worth reading
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