fun post from google board 10-Aug-09 02:15 am i just thought this post by dimondog on google is a fun refresher with all the big numbers being thrown around. we can still dream and dream we shall:
Where does it stand now for JPM? They stand to lose the $4.4B deposit,
the $13.5B claimed in court ($6.5B capital infusion, $3B NOL, and the
$4B for the preferred they stole). So, as it stands now they'll
probably have to shell out $17.9B.
None of this includes the value of WMB, Providian, and any other
subsidiaries the FDIC transferred over with the blank schedule 3.1a.
A firm (TFI?) that specializes in asset valuations in court cases put
the value of WMB at $50B. An expert professor who teaches this stuff
put it at $52B.
After covering the $1.0B A/L shortfall (5.4 million Visa B shares
covers the $0.3B), and the $3.7B for preferred (including missed
dividends), a $50 billion settlement would leave $45.5B left over for
commons, or $45.3/1.7 = $26.65/share.
What if JPM offered $25/share for WMI? They would have to pay out
$42.5B for commons, and cover the $1B liability shortfall and pay out
the $0.2 in preferred dividends for a total of $43.7B.
As of now they stand to lose the $17.9B previously mentioned. By
buying out WMI, the net extra cost would be $25.8B. ($43.7-17.9). By
buying out WMI they keep the $4.4B deposit, the $3.0B NOL, and don't
have to pay out the $6.5B capital infusion and the $4.0 for stolen
preferred.
JPM received around $20B is extra cash sloshing around WMBfsb, a
subsidiary of WMB, not to mention the $10B in receivables that
Providian had. They had a negative good will of around $10B, and they
just reported an estimated gain of $29B from WMB's mortgage
portfolio.
Cash-wise, JPM could use the $4.4B deposit, the $3.0B NOL plus the
$20B cash in WMBfsb and $10B Providian receivables which would total
$37.4B. At a $25/share buyout, they would have to come up with another
$5.1B to cover the $42.5B. They would assume the debt and preferred
stock which would not necessitate a cash buy-out.
This doesn’t include any money that the FDIC would kick in.
For $5.1B (less any FDIC money) JPM would ALSO RECEIVE AS AN EXTRA
BONUS, 2,200 bank branches (esp. in the West and Florida), $300B in
assets and $168B in deposits (which I've read has grown to nearly
$300B now) and the approx. $10B in negative goodwill and the $29B gain
from WMB’s mortgage portfolio.
Now, if the FDIC kicks in $10-$20B - well, JPM would make out like a
bandit. And we would get $25/share for commons.
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trotzdem bleibt einem nur die möglichkeit so gut wie möglich mitzuschwimmen ! und sich in den großinszenator JPM einzudenken !
gruß an alle
An der Börse sind 2 mal 2 niemals 4, sondern 5 minus 1.
Man muß nur die Nerven haben, das minus 1 auszuhalten.
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