Quo Vadis Dax 2009

begannen aber im haussektor - scheinbar also bessere daten - scheinbar ;-) warten wir es ab

Also, 15 of the 20 stocks in the Dow Jones Transportation Average ($DJT) -- which is a good signal of where the economy is headed -- were higher. The index jumped 9%.
Seventeen of the 19 stocks in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX) were ahead, with the index up 4.5%. The biggest laggards, KLA Tencor (KLAC) and SanDisk (SNDK), were off 3.7% and 3.9%, respectively.
This may make no sense to anyone who looks at the economy. Gross domestic product grew in the third quarter after four straight quarters of decline, but the gain was 2.8% on an annualized basis, hardly robust.
U.S. unemployment is above 10% using the standard measure and worse when you add in workers who are underemployed or have simply stopped looking for work. Residential construction is a disaster and would be in worse shape if the government didn't offer large tax credits to buyers.
The dollar, which shot up in value a year ago as a safe haven, has fallen back to levels seen just before the 2008 financial crisis erupted.
So, is everybody crazy? Yes and no. Yes, because it looks as though the U.S. market is nearing a pullback -- something pundits have been talking about since the end of August, when the Dow was at 9,500.
The Dow moved up 8.6% since then, the 14th-best performance in the period between Aug. 31 and the end of November since 1928.
Here's the "no" part of the answer. The rally since March is built on four realities.
Investors have few other places to put their money. You can't put it in Treasury securities because interest rates are so low; the yield on a 90-day Treasury bill is 0.03% (yes, that's three one-hundredths of a percent).
There is a horrible fear that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates to stem the dollar's fall. Or if the Fed doesn't raise rates, the European Central Bank will because the euro is as troubled as the dollar, especially against the yen. You can't put it in bonds because interest rates are so low. And there's that pesky fear about rates suddenly moving higher.
You can't put it in real estate because commercial real estate is weak, and residential real estate looks worse.
By the March bottom, the market was so grotesquely oversold that stocks became irresistible. So, speculators took deep breaths and bought, and the market turned.
The dollar's fall made commodity stocks hot, especially silver, copper and gold. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) is up 22.6% -- and 244% for the year.
The dollar's fall was a godsend for multinational stocks. This group includes the largest stocks, like IBM (IBM), up 4.8%, and Caterpillar (CAT), up 6.1%. And don't forget stocks like Amazon.com (AMZN), up 14.4%; Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), up 3.4%; and Google (GOOG), up 8.7%. Every dollar they earn abroad increases in value when translated back into U.S. dollars.
Many financial stocks have been smoking since the March bottom. Many big financial companies were in better shape than expected, like American Express, up 17% in November and 120% for the year.
Or they managed to survive the meltdown by shrewd maneuvers. Like Goldman Sachs (GS), down 0.3% for the month but up 101% for the year.
You can argue -- as do many pundits every day on CNBC and Bloomberg Television -- that many banks are still disasters and should be broken up, liquidated or whatever.  

But investors know the government is terrified at the prospect of either option because no one knows if the credit markets can stand it.  Bank loans have fallen 7.4% in the last year, according to Federal Reserve data. Commercial and industrial lending is down 17%. If you liquidate the banks, what replaces them in the interim?

One result: Citigroup (C) may be down nearly 40% on the year, but it's up 303% since its March low.

So, where does the weird market go next? Probably December will be flat. That idea is built on two thoughts:

The dollar isn't going to move lower. This is important because so much of the rally is a reaction to the dollar's fall.
Energy, materials and technology stocks may not move much higher. The S&P 500 technology sector index is up 51% this year. Oil has been ranging between $76 and $82 a barrel.
The real action will come in 2010, and the most important thing an investor can do is watch the Fed -- especially if you're a current believer in precious metals.  

Most analysts believe the central bank does not want to raise rates until the U.S. economy starts to see real job growth, which may come in mid-2010. (Sadly, the economy does not respond to stimuli as quickly as a computer spreadsheet.)  If the Fed is forced to raise rates before it wants to, the rally could stop very quickly and painfully."

die 200er gd zurück droht ein erstklssiges shortsignal mit kssback an die 200er und evtl abprall nach unten

aber ich bin jetzt erstmal wech - euch noch viel glück

kannste erst danach sagen ;) Positionieren musste dich aber vorher.

D.h du hast angenommen, dass er die 50 er nicht packt, da er eh schon angestiegen ist und 50 ne res bildet, korrekt?

Was wenn der ISM höher ausgefallen wäre, meinte wir hätten die 50 nicht gepackt? Denke schon.
Wir sind ja nicht mal großartig gefallen nach den Zahlen. Kann man wohl auch als Stärke deuten, daher meine irrige Annahme, es geht nach oben.

und nun? beenden auf 733?

5695 ?

Seitwärtsbewegung weiter. Bis die ersten die Nerven verlieren.

ihr endlich alle Shorts gekauft? Dann kann es ja jetzt Up gehen!!

Ich hab eine Idee... Wenn Du Dich für eine Richtung entscheidest, nehme ich die andere. Da wir beide daneben liegen, haben wir auch beide gleichzeitig gewonnen :-) Wir tauschen dann einfach das Geld aus (per Überweisung, oder so) Gute Idee? :-)

BKX

44.20

Change

-0.28 -0.63%

wenn die sich heut nicht mehr fangen duerft da nicht viel gehen nach oben im dow...

ich bin wieder da.

bringt nicht.. also dir zumindst.. ich schaff es sogar bei steigenden kursen mit einem long verlust zu machen..
bundesliga reif sag ich nur.

kissback erstmal gelungen - jetzt muss er durch um das shortsignal zu negieren

so daneben wie ich heute kann man doch garnicht liegen.

auf kisback jetzt auch raus - jetzt kann ich feierabend machen

:-)))))))))))))))))

k? ;)

war übrigens ne übertreibung ;-)

recht hast du mamoe - trotzdem habe ich immer bedenken die eine chance pro tag zu verpassen - wahtscheinlich das zockergen

jetzt bei 40 rausgehauen,short sl 800, da es nur ne kleine posi ist mache ich nu auch feierabend,ist mir zu blöddaß gedaddel

raus im sinne von longs verkauft aufgrund üb unten mit der annahme schiesst bei kissback über, da viele wieder auf steigende kurse setzen

jetzt müsste es entsprechend runtergehen - aber das werde ich mit kurzen shorts nur noch übergeordnet traden - also die die immer drin sind

haste heute netto gemacht? Rechne das mal auf 10.000 EUR ;)

ich rechne keine % - aber schauen wir mal nur die hier geposteten

bei 40 und bei 50 rein - leider nur bei 24 verkauft und bei 26 long rein und bei 39 raus

macht 55 punkte

natürlich abzgl gebühren ;-)

Es kommt ja drauf an, wie teuer dein Schein ist.
Wenn ich poste, dass ich 10 Punkte Gewinn gemacht hab, kann es bei einem Schein von 1,00 viel sein, bei einem von 3,00 grad mal meine Gebähren und Steuern decken ;)