vorgetragene These, dass die Bedeutung der grotesken Unterbewertung der asiatischen Währungen weitgehend ignoriert wird.
«Asian Currencies, Led by the Renminbi, Are Grotesquely Undervalued»
Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO and co-founder of Gavekal Research, talks about his views on the US-China trade war, the end of US exceptionalism, the fading AI trade, and his investment outlook for 2026.
A year ago, all the talk was around the idea of a Mar-a-Lago Accord, a grand bargain where China would agree to revalue the renminbi. That seems to have fizzled out quickly.
You’re right, this was a big theme during the campaign. Scott Bessent, now Secretary of the Treasury, had given several speeches on the need for a rearrangement of the global monetary order. And, by the way, Bessent was absolutely right. The Asian currencies, led by the renminbi, are stupidly undervalued. China today runs trade surpluses of $100 billion per month. If you ask me what the biggest price anomaly in the world is today, I will say that it is the renminbi. The Trump administration should be applying a lot more pressure on that issue.
Why didn’t they?
I think they got sidetracked. They should have built a coalition with the Europeans, the Japanese, the Koreans, the Canadians. They should have confronted China together. But then Trump just started punching everyone on the nose. Trump genuinely believes that all foreigners have been ripping off the US for many years. Today, I actually believe that China is ripping off the rest of the world with their very undervalued currency. This needs to be addressed, because it creates massive imbalances in the system. China should be convinced that it is in their interest to revalue their currency.
Will they?
I don’t know. It’s a political decision. Looking into 2026 from an investor’s perspective, that is the single biggest question for me: Does the renminbi revalue or not? In recent years, China’s trade surplus was growing, but at the same time foreign investors were leaving China. These two capital flows cancelled each other out. This phase is now over. The foreigners that were going to sell have sold by now. Today, the renminbi still has massive inflows from trade, but no outflows from investment.
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