Nach der Kaufpanik ist vor der Kaufpanik

Schlecht für die Blasenbildung auf den Aktienmärkten, aber eher gut für europäische Anleger in japanischen Nicht-Export-Aktien.

The carry trade in Japan involves borrowing yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets, but recent changes in monetary policy may pose risks to this strategy.

Current State of the Carry Trade

The carry trade has been a popular strategy for investors who borrow in Japanese yen, which has historically had low or negative interest rates, and invest in higher-yielding assets, particularly in the U.S. and other markets. However, recent developments indicate that this strategy may be under threat due to changes in Japan's monetary policy.

Interest Rate Changes: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, but there are indications that further rate hikes may be on the horizon. This shift could increase the cost of carry, making the strategy less attractive for investors.

Yen Strengthening: As the yen begins to strengthen, carry traders may face pressure to liquidate their positions to avoid losses from currency fluctuations. A stronger yen can erode the returns from investments made with borrowed yen, prompting traders to convert their assets back into yen before it appreciates further.

Rising Bond Yields: The yield on Japanese government bonds has been increasing, which enhances the attractiveness of domestic investments. This trend could lead to a repatriation of capital as domestic investors prefer local assets over foreign investments, further complicating the carry trade landscape.
Future Implications