finde ich auch die möglichen Aussichten zum Total Adressable Market (TAM) und der Berechnung des möglichen zukünfiten EPS.
"As previously discussed, a target of 25% market share in these categories with a TAM of $60 billion leads to revenues approaching $15 billion. This amount doesn't even include the console revenues which both Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony (SNE) expect to launch their next generation platforms this year. In total, the Immersive category has an additional $15 billion TAM.
The financial breakdown when AMD reaches the $15 billion annual rate is as follows with a reduced tax rate used this time:
Revenue = $15.0 billion
Gross Margins @ 55% = $8.25 billion
OpEx @ 25% = $3.75 billion
Operating Income = $4.5 billion
Taxes @ 20% = $0.9 billion
EPS = $3.6 billion/1.2 billion shares = $3.00
The reality is this model didn't even include the Immersive category where AMD is very strong in game consoles and working towards cloud gaming solutions along with the other categories. Assuming AMD takes 25% market share from this category with a $15 billion TAM in 2020 adds another $3.75 billion in annual revenues to my ultimate financial targets.
The one major shift to this model is the semi-custom business comes with lower gross margins and lower operating expenses. The end result is similar operating margins in the 28% to 30% range as follows:
Revenue = $18.75 billion
Gross Margins @ 50% = $9.38 billion
OpEx @ 22% = $4.13 billion
Operating Income = $5.25 billion
Taxes @ 20% = $1.05 billion
EPS = $4.20 billion/1.2 billion shares = $3.50
The company guides to an effective tax rate of 3% in 2020, but my long-term model is using normalized tax rates estimated at 20%. As AMD pushes toward annual operating income above $5 billion, the company will no longer have tax losses to offset income.
Takeaway
The key investor takeaway is that this dip below $50 is likely the last chance for investors to load up on AMD at this level. The company continues to take customers from Intel and investors should prepare for AMD to garner at least 25% market share in all key markets. The stock could back to previous highs near $60 as forward EPS estimates should start rising to $3+."
Quelle: seekingalpha.com/article/4328749-amd-last-chance-below-50
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