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HW 2:26pm 31.52 -1.31 -3.99% 31.55 31.63
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Headwaters - Bluechip in Energie- und Nanotechnik
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Entdecke die beliebtesten ETFs von SPDR
hat sich bewahrheitet. Es gab einen Apple-Effekt: Stellare Ergebnisse, steiler Anstieg, dann ebenso steiler Absturz unter den Kurs vor den Zahlen. Ich hatte vor den Zahlen zu 31,92 USD verkauft (siehe oben, VK gepostet) und freue mich, auf diese Weise heute zum Durchschnittkurs von 31,35 USD wieder reingekommen zu sein (mehrere Intraday-Trades).
Ich schätze, es wird genauso weitergehen wie bei Apple nach den Oktober-Zahlen: Apple fiel zunächst ca. 10 % auf 47 USD, um dann von dort 30 % auf 61 USD zu steigen. Den 3-Monats-Chart von Apple hänge ich mal unten ran. Der (Panik-)Abverkauf nach den Zahlen ist am Volumen erkennbar.
Ich schätze, es wird genauso weitergehen wie bei Apple nach den Oktober-Zahlen: Apple fiel zunächst ca. 10 % auf 47 USD, um dann von dort 30 % auf 61 USD zu steigen. Den 3-Monats-Chart von Apple hänge ich mal unten ran. Der (Panik-)Abverkauf nach den Zahlen ist am Volumen erkennbar.
(Verkleinert auf 96%) 
Zur Diversifizierung fand ich noch was Nettes im Yahoo-Board zu HW:
"HW is one of the most synergistic companies on the big board. Deriving energy from coal and taking the waste product and making building materials is not only smart but profitable."
Die Firma macht Geld, indem sie
1. Kohle/Flüssigkohle verbrennt (Geschäftsbereich Energie, 25 %)
2. die Flugasche entsorgt (Geschäftsbereich Waste Management, 25 %)
3. die Asche (in Ziegeln) verkaufen (Geschäftsbereich Baumaterialien, 50 %)
Finde ich auch alles ziemlich stimmig - vor allem, wenn man noch die Phantasie aus den Nanokatalysatoren (Heavy oil cracker) dazu nimmt - und das bei einem KGV von 13 und Debt/Ebita von 2,5 (letztes Jahr noch 4,5). Das Baumaterial-Segment wuchs übrigens seit dem letzten Jahr um über 70 Prozent. Befürchtungen, dies sei eine Wachstumsbremse, greifen daher nicht.
Dass HW heute so stark fiel, lag vermutlich daran, dass die Aktie gestern nach einer Motley-Fool-Empfehlung (s. o.) und guten Quartalszahlen stark gestiegen war - eine Einladung an Hedgefonds, die Aktie zu shorten (das machen sie immer gern nach Empfehlungen). Wenn die Hedger die Panik ausgekostet haben, covern sie und gehen wieder long. Bei der starken Volatilität empfiehlt es sich, die Position klein zu halten. Bei mir macht sie 4,5 % des Gesamt-Depots aus.
"HW is one of the most synergistic companies on the big board. Deriving energy from coal and taking the waste product and making building materials is not only smart but profitable."
Die Firma macht Geld, indem sie
1. Kohle/Flüssigkohle verbrennt (Geschäftsbereich Energie, 25 %)
2. die Flugasche entsorgt (Geschäftsbereich Waste Management, 25 %)
3. die Asche (in Ziegeln) verkaufen (Geschäftsbereich Baumaterialien, 50 %)
Finde ich auch alles ziemlich stimmig - vor allem, wenn man noch die Phantasie aus den Nanokatalysatoren (Heavy oil cracker) dazu nimmt - und das bei einem KGV von 13 und Debt/Ebita von 2,5 (letztes Jahr noch 4,5). Das Baumaterial-Segment wuchs übrigens seit dem letzten Jahr um über 70 Prozent. Befürchtungen, dies sei eine Wachstumsbremse, greifen daher nicht.
Dass HW heute so stark fiel, lag vermutlich daran, dass die Aktie gestern nach einer Motley-Fool-Empfehlung (s. o.) und guten Quartalszahlen stark gestiegen war - eine Einladung an Hedgefonds, die Aktie zu shorten (das machen sie immer gern nach Empfehlungen). Wenn die Hedger die Panik ausgekostet haben, covern sie und gehen wieder long. Bei der starken Volatilität empfiehlt es sich, die Position klein zu halten. Bei mir macht sie 4,5 % des Gesamt-Depots aus.
Die Tabelle unten zeigt die Zahl der short verkauften Aktien am 14. Oktober 2005: Es waren 5,62 Mill. Stück. Da es insgesamt 41,6 Mill. Aktien gibt, liegt der Short-Anteil bei 13,5 %.
Diese Short-Quote ist recht hoch. Die Shorts setzen offenbar auch das Auslaufen der Kohleverflüssigungs-Subvention in 2007. Dieser Geschäftsbereich trägt aber nur noch zu 25 % zum Umsatz bei.
Dass eine hohe Short-Quote auch Vorteile bringen kann (immerhin sind die Shorts Zwangs-Käufer, die bei einem Anstieg kaufen MÜSSEN, wenn sie nicht Kopf und Kragen riskieren wollen), zeigt die Aktie von Commerce Bancorp (CBH), die ich im Sommer eine Zeitlang gehalten habe. Bei CBH lag die Short-Quote bei 20 %. Nichsdestotrotz (oder vielleicht gerade deswegen) stieg CBH in nur drei Monaten von 27 auf 36 USD - ein Plus von 33 %.
Wenn Headwaters Nano-Tests in den Raffinierien (Heavy Oil Cracker, siehe P. 15) gut anlaufen, werden sich die Shorts beim Covern überschlagen.
Diese Short-Quote ist recht hoch. Die Shorts setzen offenbar auch das Auslaufen der Kohleverflüssigungs-Subvention in 2007. Dieser Geschäftsbereich trägt aber nur noch zu 25 % zum Umsatz bei.
Dass eine hohe Short-Quote auch Vorteile bringen kann (immerhin sind die Shorts Zwangs-Käufer, die bei einem Anstieg kaufen MÜSSEN, wenn sie nicht Kopf und Kragen riskieren wollen), zeigt die Aktie von Commerce Bancorp (CBH), die ich im Sommer eine Zeitlang gehalten habe. Bei CBH lag die Short-Quote bei 20 %. Nichsdestotrotz (oder vielleicht gerade deswegen) stieg CBH in nur drei Monaten von 27 auf 36 USD - ein Plus von 33 %.
Wenn Headwaters Nano-Tests in den Raffinierien (Heavy Oil Cracker, siehe P. 15) gut anlaufen, werden sich die Shorts beim Covern überschlagen.
Da das angebliche Auslaufen dieser Zuschüsse (nach Section 29 des US-EStG) Ende 2007 das Hauptargument der Short-Seller ist, hab ich mal die Hintergründe recherchiert. Das Gesetz wurde 1980 als Reaktion auf die Ölkrise von 1974 geschaffen. Sinn und Zweck war und ist es, die Abhängigkeit der USA von importiertem Öl (über 50 % des Bedarfs stammt zurzeit aus Importen) kleiner zu machen. Dafür erhalten Erzeuger alternativer Brennstoffe - etwa von Synthetik-Öl aus Kohle-Verflüssigung - einen Steuerzuschuss von durchschnittlich rund 3 Dollar pro produziertem Barrel:
www.section29info.com/
Die Zuschüsse sollten bereits 2003 auslaufen, wurden dann aber vorerst bis Ende 2007 verlängert. Es ist durchaus möglich, dass es weitere Verlängerungen gibt, obwohl Steuerzahler-Initiativgruppen gegen das Gesetz, das die US-Steuerzahler jährlich rund
2,8 Mrd. Dollar kostet, bereits 2003 Sturm liefen:
www.taxpayer.net/greenscissors/reports/2004/section29.htm
Knackpunkt ist, dass die Fördersumme vom Rohölpreis abhängt. Kostet Öl unter 23,50 Dollar, liegt die Fördersumme bei rund 6 Dollar pro produziertem Barrel Synthetik-Öl. Bei Preisen um 60 Dollar - also jetzt - sinkt die Fördersumme auf annähernd Null. Es gibt für den Staat also keine zwingenden Gründe, das Gesetz 2007 auslaufen zu lassen: Bleibt das Rohöl so teuer wie bislang, ist die Kohleverflüssigung profitabel genug, dass keine Mittel aus dem Gesetz beansprucht zu werden brauchen. Kosten für Steuerzahler: Null Dollar. Nur für den Fall, dass Rohöl wieder billiger wird, kostet das Gesetz Geld. Es ist also sozusagen ein Put-Option für die Hersteller von Synthetik-Öl.
Ich glaube daher, dass das Gesetz über 2007 hinaus nochmals verlängert wird. Die Risiken für den Staat sind klein, der Nutzen ist groß. Es gibt 75 US-Firmen, die die Mittel in Anspruch nehmen. Einige sprayen Kohle mit Latex ein und behaupten, dies sei ein Alternativbrennstoff - zum Ärger der Steuerzahler-Initiativen. Dieses Problem wurde bereits 2003 diskutiert. Trotzdem wurde das Gesetz damals um 4 Jahre verlängert. Womöglich gibt es bei der nächsten Verlängerung Auflagen, die solche potenziellen Missbräuche ausschließen.
Insgesamt sehe ich die Risiken für Headwaters als gering an. Erstens macht die Kohleverflüssigung nur noch 24,4 % des Umsatzes aus (der Gewinnanteil soll allerdings bei einem Drittel liegen). Zweitens dürfte die Förderung verlängert werden, da sie den Steuerzahler bei hohen Ölpreisen fast nichts kostet; außerdem wäre die Kohleverflüssigung dann auch ohne Zuschuss profitabel.
Im schlimmsten Fall fällt Öl wieder auf 35 Dollar UND die Förderung wird gleichzeitig gekippt. Dann verliert Headwater rund 3 Dollar pro Barrel produziertem Synthetiköl an Zuschüssen. Da dieses im Handel vermutlich so viel kostet wie Rohöl, würde der prozentuale Steuererstattungs-Ausfall pro Barrel also nur rund 9 Prozent betragen. Die Gewinnminderung dürfte prozentual zwar höher liegen, aber völlig unprofitabel würde die Kohleverflüssigung dadurch nicht. Im Extremfall stünde vermutlich nicht mehr als der gesamte Gewinn aus den INLANDS-Aktivitäten in diesem Bereich auf dem Spiel (in China und Indien laufen auch Projekte) - das wäre weniger als 33 Prozent des Gesamtgewinns. Dann stiege das derzeitige KGV von 13 auf knapp 20.
Nicht einmal das ist IMHO ein Beinbruch, wenn die Aussagen des Managements zutreffen, der Gewinn der Firma werde auch in den nächsten 5 Jahren um jährlich 25 Prozent steigen. Diese Steigerungsrate wurde in den letzten fünf Jahren jedes Jahr übertroffen. Allein die Zahlen von vorgestern weisen gegenüber dem Vorjahres-Quartal eine Gewinnsteigerung von 95 cents/51 cents = 86 Prozent aus (siehe Posting 16). Und das KGV von 20 ergäbe sich ja nur unter der Extrembedingung, dass GLEICHZEITIG der Ölpreis auf 35 Dollar sinkt UND das Fördergesetz nicht über 2007 hinaus verlängert wird.
Zieht man das Potenzial der Nanokatalysator-Cracker für Schweröl mit ins Kalkül, mit denen eine einzelne Raffinierie durch bessere Aufbereitung der Schweröl-Destillationsreste zwischen drei und fünf Milliarden Dollar pro Jahr EXTRA verdienen kann (Posting 15) - , ist die Aktie für mich ein klarer Langfrist-Kauf.
-----------
DIE ZEIT zur Kohleverflüssigung (42/2001)
zeus.zeit.de/text/2001/42/200142_weltoel_xml
Auszug: Kohle in Öl zu verwandeln bereitet Ingenieuren und Technikern keine Probleme. Bereits 1913 entdeckte der deutsche Privatgelehrte Fritz Bergius das Verfahren der Hochdruckhydrierung, für das er später mit dem Nobelpreis ausgezeichnet wurde. Rund zehn Jahre darauf entwickelten Wissenschaftler am Kaiser-Wilhelm-Institut für Kohleforschung in Mülheim/Ruhr die so genannte Fischer-Tropsch-Synthese. Beide Verfahren nutzten die um Autarkie bemühten Nationalsozialisten großtechnisch.
Mit dem Ende der Naziherrschaft war es auch mit der Kohleverflüssigung vorbei - nicht nur, weil die Alliierten die Technik verboten. Es begann die Zeit des Erdöls. Erst als der praktische Saft teurer wurde, erinnerte man sich wieder an die alte Technik - ohne Erfolg. Eine 1981 in Bottrop von Veba Oel gebaute Anlage erwies sich als "komplett unwirtschaftlich"; vor kurzem wurde sie abgerissen. Nur in Südafrika wird heute noch Benzin aus Kohle gewonnen. Und neuerdings zeigt China Interesse an der Kohleöl-Technologie. Hierzulande stellte die Regierung 1996 sämtliche Fördermaßnahmen ein, während in den Vereinigten Staaten wenigstens noch geforscht wird, wie Matthias Haenel, Chemiker am Max-Planck-Institut für Kohleforschung, weiß. Ein Fass Kohlebenzin, schätzt der Experte, würde heute "wahrscheinlich 60 Dollar" kosten.
[D.h.: Bei einem Rohölpreis von 60 Dollar beginnt Kohleverflüssigung auch ohne Förderung rentabel zu werden. Außerdem hat Headwaters das Verfahren offenbar verbessert - auf ähnliche Weise, wie jetzt die Verwertung von Schweröl-Destillat verbessert wurde. A. L.]
www.section29info.com/
Die Zuschüsse sollten bereits 2003 auslaufen, wurden dann aber vorerst bis Ende 2007 verlängert. Es ist durchaus möglich, dass es weitere Verlängerungen gibt, obwohl Steuerzahler-Initiativgruppen gegen das Gesetz, das die US-Steuerzahler jährlich rund
2,8 Mrd. Dollar kostet, bereits 2003 Sturm liefen:
www.taxpayer.net/greenscissors/reports/2004/section29.htm
Knackpunkt ist, dass die Fördersumme vom Rohölpreis abhängt. Kostet Öl unter 23,50 Dollar, liegt die Fördersumme bei rund 6 Dollar pro produziertem Barrel Synthetik-Öl. Bei Preisen um 60 Dollar - also jetzt - sinkt die Fördersumme auf annähernd Null. Es gibt für den Staat also keine zwingenden Gründe, das Gesetz 2007 auslaufen zu lassen: Bleibt das Rohöl so teuer wie bislang, ist die Kohleverflüssigung profitabel genug, dass keine Mittel aus dem Gesetz beansprucht zu werden brauchen. Kosten für Steuerzahler: Null Dollar. Nur für den Fall, dass Rohöl wieder billiger wird, kostet das Gesetz Geld. Es ist also sozusagen ein Put-Option für die Hersteller von Synthetik-Öl.
Ich glaube daher, dass das Gesetz über 2007 hinaus nochmals verlängert wird. Die Risiken für den Staat sind klein, der Nutzen ist groß. Es gibt 75 US-Firmen, die die Mittel in Anspruch nehmen. Einige sprayen Kohle mit Latex ein und behaupten, dies sei ein Alternativbrennstoff - zum Ärger der Steuerzahler-Initiativen. Dieses Problem wurde bereits 2003 diskutiert. Trotzdem wurde das Gesetz damals um 4 Jahre verlängert. Womöglich gibt es bei der nächsten Verlängerung Auflagen, die solche potenziellen Missbräuche ausschließen.
Insgesamt sehe ich die Risiken für Headwaters als gering an. Erstens macht die Kohleverflüssigung nur noch 24,4 % des Umsatzes aus (der Gewinnanteil soll allerdings bei einem Drittel liegen). Zweitens dürfte die Förderung verlängert werden, da sie den Steuerzahler bei hohen Ölpreisen fast nichts kostet; außerdem wäre die Kohleverflüssigung dann auch ohne Zuschuss profitabel.
Im schlimmsten Fall fällt Öl wieder auf 35 Dollar UND die Förderung wird gleichzeitig gekippt. Dann verliert Headwater rund 3 Dollar pro Barrel produziertem Synthetiköl an Zuschüssen. Da dieses im Handel vermutlich so viel kostet wie Rohöl, würde der prozentuale Steuererstattungs-Ausfall pro Barrel also nur rund 9 Prozent betragen. Die Gewinnminderung dürfte prozentual zwar höher liegen, aber völlig unprofitabel würde die Kohleverflüssigung dadurch nicht. Im Extremfall stünde vermutlich nicht mehr als der gesamte Gewinn aus den INLANDS-Aktivitäten in diesem Bereich auf dem Spiel (in China und Indien laufen auch Projekte) - das wäre weniger als 33 Prozent des Gesamtgewinns. Dann stiege das derzeitige KGV von 13 auf knapp 20.
Nicht einmal das ist IMHO ein Beinbruch, wenn die Aussagen des Managements zutreffen, der Gewinn der Firma werde auch in den nächsten 5 Jahren um jährlich 25 Prozent steigen. Diese Steigerungsrate wurde in den letzten fünf Jahren jedes Jahr übertroffen. Allein die Zahlen von vorgestern weisen gegenüber dem Vorjahres-Quartal eine Gewinnsteigerung von 95 cents/51 cents = 86 Prozent aus (siehe Posting 16). Und das KGV von 20 ergäbe sich ja nur unter der Extrembedingung, dass GLEICHZEITIG der Ölpreis auf 35 Dollar sinkt UND das Fördergesetz nicht über 2007 hinaus verlängert wird.
Zieht man das Potenzial der Nanokatalysator-Cracker für Schweröl mit ins Kalkül, mit denen eine einzelne Raffinierie durch bessere Aufbereitung der Schweröl-Destillationsreste zwischen drei und fünf Milliarden Dollar pro Jahr EXTRA verdienen kann (Posting 15) - , ist die Aktie für mich ein klarer Langfrist-Kauf.
-----------
DIE ZEIT zur Kohleverflüssigung (42/2001)
zeus.zeit.de/text/2001/42/200142_weltoel_xml
Auszug: Kohle in Öl zu verwandeln bereitet Ingenieuren und Technikern keine Probleme. Bereits 1913 entdeckte der deutsche Privatgelehrte Fritz Bergius das Verfahren der Hochdruckhydrierung, für das er später mit dem Nobelpreis ausgezeichnet wurde. Rund zehn Jahre darauf entwickelten Wissenschaftler am Kaiser-Wilhelm-Institut für Kohleforschung in Mülheim/Ruhr die so genannte Fischer-Tropsch-Synthese. Beide Verfahren nutzten die um Autarkie bemühten Nationalsozialisten großtechnisch.
Mit dem Ende der Naziherrschaft war es auch mit der Kohleverflüssigung vorbei - nicht nur, weil die Alliierten die Technik verboten. Es begann die Zeit des Erdöls. Erst als der praktische Saft teurer wurde, erinnerte man sich wieder an die alte Technik - ohne Erfolg. Eine 1981 in Bottrop von Veba Oel gebaute Anlage erwies sich als "komplett unwirtschaftlich"; vor kurzem wurde sie abgerissen. Nur in Südafrika wird heute noch Benzin aus Kohle gewonnen. Und neuerdings zeigt China Interesse an der Kohleöl-Technologie. Hierzulande stellte die Regierung 1996 sämtliche Fördermaßnahmen ein, während in den Vereinigten Staaten wenigstens noch geforscht wird, wie Matthias Haenel, Chemiker am Max-Planck-Institut für Kohleforschung, weiß. Ein Fass Kohlebenzin, schätzt der Experte, würde heute "wahrscheinlich 60 Dollar" kosten.
[D.h.: Bei einem Rohölpreis von 60 Dollar beginnt Kohleverflüssigung auch ohne Förderung rentabel zu werden. Außerdem hat Headwaters das Verfahren offenbar verbessert - auf ähnliche Weise, wie jetzt die Verwertung von Schweröl-Destillat verbessert wurde. A. L.]
Danke für die Informationen. Ich werde heute je nach Eröffnung in den US nochmal nachlegen.
gruss
permanent
gruss
permanent
Obwohl Headwaters 25 % des Umsatzes mit Kohleverflüssigung erzielt, STEIGT die Aktie, wenn der Rohölpreis fällt. Dies scheint widersinnig, weil Kohleverflüssigung umso profitabler wird, je höher der Ölpreis steigt.
Anleger aller Couleur (vor allem Kurzfristanleger und Shorter) haben jedoch etwas Anderes im Blick: Je billiger das Öl wird, desto wahrscheinlicher wird, dass "Section 29" des US-ESt-Gesetz (staatl. Förderung der Kohleverflüssigung) im Jahre 2007 ein weiteres Mal verlängert wird. Unterm Strich scheint HW besser dazustehen, wenn das Öl billiger wird und die Förderung der Kohleverflüssigung (deshalb) weiterläuft.
Ein anderes Szenario ergäbe sich, wenn Rohöl stark stiege - in Regionen um 100 Dollar. Dann würde, wenn der Kohlepreis nicht mitzieht (was ja beim Gas zu beobachten ist), die Kohleverlüssigung in der Tat auch ohne Förderung lukrativ.
Fazit: Für den Kurs von HW ist es am besten, wenn der Rohölpreis sich STARK BEWEGT - egal in welche Richtung. Nach unten wäre aber vermutlich besser, weil dann auch der Gesamtmarkt steigt, von dem HW nicht abgekoppelt ist.
Anleger aller Couleur (vor allem Kurzfristanleger und Shorter) haben jedoch etwas Anderes im Blick: Je billiger das Öl wird, desto wahrscheinlicher wird, dass "Section 29" des US-ESt-Gesetz (staatl. Förderung der Kohleverflüssigung) im Jahre 2007 ein weiteres Mal verlängert wird. Unterm Strich scheint HW besser dazustehen, wenn das Öl billiger wird und die Förderung der Kohleverflüssigung (deshalb) weiterläuft.
Ein anderes Szenario ergäbe sich, wenn Rohöl stark stiege - in Regionen um 100 Dollar. Dann würde, wenn der Kohlepreis nicht mitzieht (was ja beim Gas zu beobachten ist), die Kohleverlüssigung in der Tat auch ohne Förderung lukrativ.
Fazit: Für den Kurs von HW ist es am besten, wenn der Rohölpreis sich STARK BEWEGT - egal in welche Richtung. Nach unten wäre aber vermutlich besser, weil dann auch der Gesamtmarkt steigt, von dem HW nicht abgekoppelt ist.
in Dollar bzw. Mill. Dollar
(Verkleinert auf 90%)
<!--StartFragment --> HEADWATERS INC - New York Stock Exchange: HW (NEW charting help)
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Stock Of The Week
Headwaters In The Right Direction
John Dobosz, 11.16.05, 9:15 AM ET<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
NEW YORK - Vahan Janjigian, editor of Forbes Growth Investor, recommends buying shares of Headwaters. The South Jordan, Utah company does business in three areas: coal combustion products, construction materials and alternative energy.
Headwaters' (nyse: HW - news - people ) construction materials segment accounted for 49% of sales over the first nine months of 2005, and includes production and sales of concrete blocks, mortar, stucco, window shutters, vents and professional cutting and shaping tools. The alternative energy segment, which licenses technologies that cause chemical reagents to interact with coal to produce a solid fuel, brought in 28% of sales. Brining in 23% of revenue was the coal combustion segment, which helps utilities sell the fly and bottom ash that forms as a byproduct of the coal-burning process. The ash minimizes the permeability and enhances the durability of concrete.
Revenue for fiscal 2005 (ended Sept. 30) rose 92% to $1.06 billion from $555 million in 2004. Net income came in at $121.3 million ($2.79 per share), up 88% from $64.3 million ($1.88 per share).
Special Offer: Investors who acted on Vahan Janjigian's buy recommendation of United Therapeutics at $45.70 are up 59%. Click here for Janjigian's latest biotechnology buy in Forbes Growth Investor.
Shares of Headwaters closed Tuesday at $32.43, up 4.7% for the past 12 months but nearly 30% below their late July 52-week high of $45.75. Based on the current share price, Headwaters has a market capitalization of $1.35 billion and trades for 12 times 2005 earnings. Analysts look for the company’s earnings to grow 24% annually over the next five years, giving Headwaters a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.49.
The company has plans to keep that growth going. Last week, Headwaters announced that it has initiated a commercial-scale demonstration project of its “heavy oil hydrocracking technology,” which will convert residual oil into distillates that can be refined further into gasoline, diesel and other fuel products. Headwaters is also working on hydrogen peroxide plants and a coal-to-liquids technology in Asia.
Customers that use Headwaters’ valued-adding alternative energy technologies are eligible for tax credits arising from Section 29 of the Internal Revenue Code. These credits, however, run only through the end of 2007, and are reduced gradually to zero as the average price of oil rises.
“Persistently high oil prices could result in the elimination of these credits, which may cause customers to shut facilities,” says Janjigian. “Our recommendation is made largely on the expectation that oil prices will recede.”
“Headwaters has expanded profit margins by raising prices and improving utilization rates,” says Janjigian. “With demand expected to remain strong, we believe margins can continue to expand. Finally, the recently passed energy bill contains several provisions that should benefit Headwaters indirectly.”
Janjigian added Headwaters to the Forbes Growth Investor Top 50 model portfolio on Oct. 31.
The investment above was recommended in Forbes Newsletters’ free Stock of the Week e-mail. Click here to receive Stock of the Week next Monday morning instead of waiting until Wednesday.
Send comments and questions to newsletters@forbes.com
6:14am 01/24/06
§
Headwaters net doubles; licensee plants curtail output (HW)
By Robert Daniel
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Headwaters Inc., (HW) the South Jordan, Utah, provider of products and services to the energy, construction and home-improvement industries, reported that first-quarter net income more than doubled on 28% higher revenue. Net for the quarter ended Dec. 31 reached $28.3 million, or 60 cents a share, from $11.1 million, or 30 cents, in the year-earlier period. The figures reflect an increase in shares outstanding to 48.6 million from 40.6 million. Revenue reached $280.5 million from $218.4 million. The company said three facilities owned by a company licensee have curtailed production "due to the uncertain oil-price environment. The decision to curtail production may be temporary or long term depending upon oil-price movement." And in January, Headwaters received the final $70 million payment due from the litigation settlement reached with AJG in 2005. Headwaters applied the proceeds to repaying the $30 million outstanding under a revolving-credit line and paid $24 million of a first-lien term loan, effectively prepaying all scheduled principal payments on the term debt until November 2007.
§
Headwaters net doubles; licensee plants curtail output (HW)
By Robert Daniel
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Headwaters Inc., (HW) the South Jordan, Utah, provider of products and services to the energy, construction and home-improvement industries, reported that first-quarter net income more than doubled on 28% higher revenue. Net for the quarter ended Dec. 31 reached $28.3 million, or 60 cents a share, from $11.1 million, or 30 cents, in the year-earlier period. The figures reflect an increase in shares outstanding to 48.6 million from 40.6 million. Revenue reached $280.5 million from $218.4 million. The company said three facilities owned by a company licensee have curtailed production "due to the uncertain oil-price environment. The decision to curtail production may be temporary or long term depending upon oil-price movement." And in January, Headwaters received the final $70 million payment due from the litigation settlement reached with AJG in 2005. Headwaters applied the proceeds to repaying the $30 million outstanding under a revolving-credit line and paid $24 million of a first-lien term loan, effectively prepaying all scheduled principal payments on the term debt until November 2007.
Headwaters gerät trotz Rekordgewinn (+ 154 %) in den Abwärts-Sog, der heute auch andere Momentum-Aktien wie Sandisk, Apple, Google und Broadcom erfasst. Grund ist der steigende Öl-Preis, der den Fortgang der staatlichen Förderung (Steuervergünstigungen) für Alternativ-Öl aus Kohleverflüssigung gefährdet. Die Börse nimmt die erwarteten Ausfälle bereits vorweg.
-------------
Headwater's Revenue Surges
By TSC and IRIS Staff
1/24/2006 2:44 PM EST
First-quarter earnings at Utah-based energy and construction services provider Headwaters (HW:NYSE) jumped 154% thanks to higher sales and margins.
The company earned $28.3 million, or 60 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with $11.1 million, or 30 cents a share, a year ago. Analysts were forecasting 57 cents a share in the most recent quarter. Sales rose 28% to $280.5 million, above the consensus estimate of $268 million compiled by Thomson First Call.
Operating income increased 42% to $50.3 million in the quarter, as gross profit margin expanded to 17.91% from 16.16%. The company's tax rate fell to 26% in the latest quarter from 37% a year ago, as the company benefited from credits related to investments in alternative fuel.
"Tax credits claimed by alternative fuel facility owners may begin to be phased out or eliminated prior to their scheduled expiration on Dec. 31, 2007, if the 'reference price' of oil enters into or exceeds an established average annual range of oil prices, adjusted annually for inflation," the company noted. Three facilities owned by a licensee of Headwaters have stopped production due to the uncertain oil price environment. Headwaters added that, "high oil prices create an uncertain environment that could result in further curtailment of production."
Revenue from coal combustion products during the quarter increased 23% to $65.2 million from $53.1 million in the previous year. The increase in revenue, Headwaters said, resulted from a combination of continued strong demand, upward pricing trends in most concrete markets, and increased project revenues. Further, weather conditions in the south central region of the United States were favorable.
-------------
Headwater's Revenue Surges
By TSC and IRIS Staff
1/24/2006 2:44 PM EST
First-quarter earnings at Utah-based energy and construction services provider Headwaters (HW:NYSE) jumped 154% thanks to higher sales and margins.
The company earned $28.3 million, or 60 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with $11.1 million, or 30 cents a share, a year ago. Analysts were forecasting 57 cents a share in the most recent quarter. Sales rose 28% to $280.5 million, above the consensus estimate of $268 million compiled by Thomson First Call.
Operating income increased 42% to $50.3 million in the quarter, as gross profit margin expanded to 17.91% from 16.16%. The company's tax rate fell to 26% in the latest quarter from 37% a year ago, as the company benefited from credits related to investments in alternative fuel.
"Tax credits claimed by alternative fuel facility owners may begin to be phased out or eliminated prior to their scheduled expiration on Dec. 31, 2007, if the 'reference price' of oil enters into or exceeds an established average annual range of oil prices, adjusted annually for inflation," the company noted. Three facilities owned by a licensee of Headwaters have stopped production due to the uncertain oil price environment. Headwaters added that, "high oil prices create an uncertain environment that could result in further curtailment of production."
Revenue from coal combustion products during the quarter increased 23% to $65.2 million from $53.1 million in the previous year. The increase in revenue, Headwaters said, resulted from a combination of continued strong demand, upward pricing trends in most concrete markets, and increased project revenues. Further, weather conditions in the south central region of the United States were favorable.
(Verkleinert auf 96%)
Headwaters steht nachbörslich bei 33,35 - eine Nachkaufgelegenheit?
Headwaters Profit Jumps
By TSC and IRIS Staff
5/8/2006 10:25 AM EDT
Headwaters (HW:NYSE) said its second-quarter earnings rose 84% from the year-ago period.
The South Jordan, Utah-based company earned $18.4 million, or 40 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with $10 million, or 26 cents a share, a year ago. Adjusted earnings were 55 cents a share in the most recent quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were expecting earnings of 44 cents a share.
Second-quarter revenue rose 21.3% from a year-ago period to $269.7 million as against analysts' expectation of $255 million.
"Our quarterly performance continues to be strong with exceptional revenue growth and continues to mark our transition away from Section 29. The consolidated operating margins were impacted by the lack of recognition of license fees and inefficiencies within our construction materials segment. We remain hopeful that uncertainty surrounding the Section 29 issue will be resolved in the near term,'' the company said.
Second-quarter operating income rose 5% from a year-ago period to $37.7 million, but operating margin declined 216 basis points to 14%.
By segment, second-quarter revenue from construction materials segment rose 20.6% to $131.7 million and from coal combustion products segment it rose to $58.5 million. Revenue from alternative energy segment increased 22.7% to $79.5 million.
Headwaters Profit Jumps
By TSC and IRIS Staff
5/8/2006 10:25 AM EDT
Headwaters (HW:NYSE) said its second-quarter earnings rose 84% from the year-ago period.
The South Jordan, Utah-based company earned $18.4 million, or 40 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with $10 million, or 26 cents a share, a year ago. Adjusted earnings were 55 cents a share in the most recent quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were expecting earnings of 44 cents a share.
Second-quarter revenue rose 21.3% from a year-ago period to $269.7 million as against analysts' expectation of $255 million.
"Our quarterly performance continues to be strong with exceptional revenue growth and continues to mark our transition away from Section 29. The consolidated operating margins were impacted by the lack of recognition of license fees and inefficiencies within our construction materials segment. We remain hopeful that uncertainty surrounding the Section 29 issue will be resolved in the near term,'' the company said.
Second-quarter operating income rose 5% from a year-ago period to $37.7 million, but operating margin declined 216 basis points to 14%.
By segment, second-quarter revenue from construction materials segment rose 20.6% to $131.7 million and from coal combustion products segment it rose to $58.5 million. Revenue from alternative energy segment increased 22.7% to $79.5 million.
Staatliche Zuschüsse für die Herstellung von synthetischem Öl aus Kohle sind in den USA abhängig vom Ölpreis. Der Ölpreis ist jetzt so hoch, dass die Förderung teilweise oder ganz gestrichen wird. Deshalb haben bislang 23 Anlagenbetreiber, die die Anlagen zur Kohleverflüssigung und die benötigten Chemikalien von Headwaters erhalten, ihre Anlagen stillgelegt. Von ihnen kamen zusammen 41 % der Einnahmen Headwaters aus Anlagenlizensierung und Chemieverkäufen.
Ob die Firmen den Betrieb wieder (profitabel) aufnehmen können, hängt von einer noch ausstehenden Gesetzesnovelle ab (Section 45k).
Die Headwater-Aktie machte nach der Mitteilung (unten) heute 12 % tiefer auf, erholte sich dann aber wieder. Headwater ist somit eine Aktie, die paradoxerweise von billiger werdendem Öl profitiert, weil dann die Kunden wieder Staatsförderung erhalten. Ich war nur kurz zur Eröffnung des Threads in HW investiert. Sollte der Ölpreis nachgeben, könnte man mit HW (long Aktie) darauf spekulieren, ohne Shorts am Hals zu haben.
Headwaters Incorporated Updates Status of Section 29 Facilities and Recent Legislative Actions
Last Update: 6:00 AM ET May 18, 2006
SOUTH JORDAN, Utah, May 18, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Headwaters Incorporated (HW) today announced that additional customers have idled production at their synthetic fuel facilities, bringing the total idled synthetic fuel lines to at least 23. These lines represented 41% of Headwaters' fiscal 2005 reagent sales and license fees. The decision to idle synfuel plants operated by Headwaters customers is generally driven by the current level and volatility of oil prices and the lack of federal legislation that would provide certainty for production economics this year. Synthetic fuel production at these idled plants may resume, depending on various factors, including a reduction in oil prices or the potential enactment of federal legislation. Many of Headwaters' customers retain production flexibility that could allow them to make up lost production during the remainder of 2006 if the current shutdown remains limited in duration.
Headwaters participates in the synthetic fuel industry primarily by licensing its technology and selling chemical reagents to owners of synthetic fuel facilities. The owners benefit from tax credits generated from the sale of qualified synthetic fuel produced at their facilities. The value of these credits is dependent on the full-year average price of oil for the year in which the credits are generated. While the full-year average price of oil cannot be known with certainty prior to the end of the year, current high oil prices suggest that the credits' value could be partially or fully phased out for 2006.
Legislation was proposed in Congress for inclusion in the recent tax reconciliation bill that would have impacted the potential phase-out of production tax credits for 2006 and 2007. However, this provision was not included in the reconciliation bill as enacted.
The proposed legislation is under consideration for inclusion in subsequent legislation, such as an "extenders" bill. If included and enacted as proposed, then there would be no phase-out of tax credits for 2006 and Headwaters' customers could resume production at their synthetic fuel facilities.
To diversify itself from the risks associated with Section 45k (formerly Section 29), Headwaters has over recent years developed a two part strategy. First, Headwaters has completed several acquisitions in the building products industry over the past five years, generating more than $768 million in revenue in its most recent fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2005. The underlying revenue growth rate in Headwaters' building products businesses was 21% comparing the quarter ended March 31, 2006, to the quarter ended March 31, 2005.
To sustain growth, a key part of Headwaters' building products strategy is to introduce new products into its distribution system. This year Headwaters is introducing synthetic slate roofing, hurricane shutters, concrete shutters, architectural brick and specialized concrete tiles and counters. In addition, we are incrementally expanding our core products with color, size and shape variations to meet customer demand.
The second part of Headwaters' diversification strategy is to develop a portfolio of new energy and specialty chemical products. Headwaters expects that several of these products should be producing revenue over the next 12 months and we anticipate they will contribute substantially to Headwaters' future growth. The products include heavy oil upgrading catalysts, coal cleaning, gasoline reforming, ethanol and direct synthesis hydrogen peroxide.
"Due to the uncertainty surrounding oil prices and legislative action, we believe it is prudent to widen the band of our earnings forecast for the 2006 fiscal year," said Scott K. Sorensen, chief financial officer. "Even if no legislation is passed and additional plants are idled, we estimate that Headwaters' fully diluted earnings per share should be in the range of $2.00 to $2.70 per share." This range is based upon Headwaters current estimates under the present circumstances. Future events could cause these estimates to change materially and Headwaters does not expect to update its estimates.
"Our diversification process continues to be successfully implemented," said Kirk A. Benson, chairman and chief executive officer. "We have reduced our percentage of revenue related to Section 29 from nearly 100 percent in fiscal 2002 to 28 percent in fiscal 2005. We will continue upon this path of strategic diversification, as appropriate."
About Headwaters Incorporated
Headwaters Incorporated is a world leader in creating value through innovative advancements in the utilization of natural resources. Headwaters is a diversified growth company providing products, technologies and services to the energy, construction and home improvement industries. Through its alternative energy, coal combustion products, and building materials businesses, the company earns a growing revenue stream that provides the capital needed to expand and acquire synergistic new business opportunities.
SOURCE: Headwaters Incorporated 
Ob die Firmen den Betrieb wieder (profitabel) aufnehmen können, hängt von einer noch ausstehenden Gesetzesnovelle ab (Section 45k).
Die Headwater-Aktie machte nach der Mitteilung (unten) heute 12 % tiefer auf, erholte sich dann aber wieder. Headwater ist somit eine Aktie, die paradoxerweise von billiger werdendem Öl profitiert, weil dann die Kunden wieder Staatsförderung erhalten. Ich war nur kurz zur Eröffnung des Threads in HW investiert. Sollte der Ölpreis nachgeben, könnte man mit HW (long Aktie) darauf spekulieren, ohne Shorts am Hals zu haben.
Headwaters Incorporated Updates Status of Section 29 Facilities and Recent Legislative Actions
Last Update: 6:00 AM ET May 18, 2006
SOUTH JORDAN, Utah, May 18, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Headwaters Incorporated (HW) today announced that additional customers have idled production at their synthetic fuel facilities, bringing the total idled synthetic fuel lines to at least 23. These lines represented 41% of Headwaters' fiscal 2005 reagent sales and license fees. The decision to idle synfuel plants operated by Headwaters customers is generally driven by the current level and volatility of oil prices and the lack of federal legislation that would provide certainty for production economics this year. Synthetic fuel production at these idled plants may resume, depending on various factors, including a reduction in oil prices or the potential enactment of federal legislation. Many of Headwaters' customers retain production flexibility that could allow them to make up lost production during the remainder of 2006 if the current shutdown remains limited in duration.
Headwaters participates in the synthetic fuel industry primarily by licensing its technology and selling chemical reagents to owners of synthetic fuel facilities. The owners benefit from tax credits generated from the sale of qualified synthetic fuel produced at their facilities. The value of these credits is dependent on the full-year average price of oil for the year in which the credits are generated. While the full-year average price of oil cannot be known with certainty prior to the end of the year, current high oil prices suggest that the credits' value could be partially or fully phased out for 2006.
Legislation was proposed in Congress for inclusion in the recent tax reconciliation bill that would have impacted the potential phase-out of production tax credits for 2006 and 2007. However, this provision was not included in the reconciliation bill as enacted.
The proposed legislation is under consideration for inclusion in subsequent legislation, such as an "extenders" bill. If included and enacted as proposed, then there would be no phase-out of tax credits for 2006 and Headwaters' customers could resume production at their synthetic fuel facilities.
To diversify itself from the risks associated with Section 45k (formerly Section 29), Headwaters has over recent years developed a two part strategy. First, Headwaters has completed several acquisitions in the building products industry over the past five years, generating more than $768 million in revenue in its most recent fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2005. The underlying revenue growth rate in Headwaters' building products businesses was 21% comparing the quarter ended March 31, 2006, to the quarter ended March 31, 2005.
To sustain growth, a key part of Headwaters' building products strategy is to introduce new products into its distribution system. This year Headwaters is introducing synthetic slate roofing, hurricane shutters, concrete shutters, architectural brick and specialized concrete tiles and counters. In addition, we are incrementally expanding our core products with color, size and shape variations to meet customer demand.
The second part of Headwaters' diversification strategy is to develop a portfolio of new energy and specialty chemical products. Headwaters expects that several of these products should be producing revenue over the next 12 months and we anticipate they will contribute substantially to Headwaters' future growth. The products include heavy oil upgrading catalysts, coal cleaning, gasoline reforming, ethanol and direct synthesis hydrogen peroxide.
"Due to the uncertainty surrounding oil prices and legislative action, we believe it is prudent to widen the band of our earnings forecast for the 2006 fiscal year," said Scott K. Sorensen, chief financial officer. "Even if no legislation is passed and additional plants are idled, we estimate that Headwaters' fully diluted earnings per share should be in the range of $2.00 to $2.70 per share." This range is based upon Headwaters current estimates under the present circumstances. Future events could cause these estimates to change materially and Headwaters does not expect to update its estimates.
"Our diversification process continues to be successfully implemented," said Kirk A. Benson, chairman and chief executive officer. "We have reduced our percentage of revenue related to Section 29 from nearly 100 percent in fiscal 2002 to 28 percent in fiscal 2005. We will continue upon this path of strategic diversification, as appropriate."
About Headwaters Incorporated
Headwaters Incorporated is a world leader in creating value through innovative advancements in the utilization of natural resources. Headwaters is a diversified growth company providing products, technologies and services to the energy, construction and home improvement industries. Through its alternative energy, coal combustion products, and building materials businesses, the company earns a growing revenue stream that provides the capital needed to expand and acquire synergistic new business opportunities.
SOURCE: Headwaters Incorporated
(Verkleinert auf 96%)
Headwaters Ebbs on Forecast
By TSC and IRIS Staff
5/18/2006 4:01 PM EDT
Headwaters (HW:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) said on Thursday that additional customers have idled production at their synthetic fuel facilities, bringing the total idled synthetic fuel lines to at least 23, representing 41% of it's fiscal 2005 reagent sales and license fees. Synthetic fuel production at these idled plants may resume, depending on various factors, including a reduction in oil prices or the potential enactment of federal legislation.
Headwaters participates in the synthetic fuel industry primarily by licensing its technology and selling chemical reagents to owners of synthetic fuel facilities.
Due to the uncertainty of oil prices and legislative action, the company now expects its fiscal 2006 earnings of $2 to $2.70 a share, even if no legislation is passed related to tax credits generated from the sale of qualified synthetic fuel and additional plants are idled.
To diversify itself from the risks associated with Section 45k, the company has over recent years developed a two part strategy. First, it has completed several acquisitions in the building products industry over the past five years. The second part of it's diversification strategy is to develop a portfolio of new energy and specialty chemical products.
The company's shares were trading at $29.50, down $1.90, or 6.1% Thursday.
By TSC and IRIS Staff
5/18/2006 4:01 PM EDT
Headwaters (HW:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) said on Thursday that additional customers have idled production at their synthetic fuel facilities, bringing the total idled synthetic fuel lines to at least 23, representing 41% of it's fiscal 2005 reagent sales and license fees. Synthetic fuel production at these idled plants may resume, depending on various factors, including a reduction in oil prices or the potential enactment of federal legislation.
Headwaters participates in the synthetic fuel industry primarily by licensing its technology and selling chemical reagents to owners of synthetic fuel facilities.
Due to the uncertainty of oil prices and legislative action, the company now expects its fiscal 2006 earnings of $2 to $2.70 a share, even if no legislation is passed related to tax credits generated from the sale of qualified synthetic fuel and additional plants are idled.
To diversify itself from the risks associated with Section 45k, the company has over recent years developed a two part strategy. First, it has completed several acquisitions in the building products industry over the past five years. The second part of it's diversification strategy is to develop a portfolio of new energy and specialty chemical products.
The company's shares were trading at $29.50, down $1.90, or 6.1% Thursday.
(kleine Position).
Heute kam ein Downgrade, das den Kurs noch einmal 3 % auf jetzt 26,60 USD drückte (dann ist DAS also auch "durch" und enthalten).
Thursday, June 01, 2006
HEADWATERS CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL 9:14 AM
RBC CUTS HEADWATERS PRICE TARGET TO $34 FROM $46 9:15 AM
Als Headwaters im Februar bei 37,50 Dollar stand, empfahl Jim Jubak (MSN, er schreibt auch für Street.com) die Aktie mit KZ 47 Dollar. Jubak ist kein Dummkopf, sondern einer der besten Buy-Side-Analysten, die ich kenne. Man werfe nur einen Blick auf diesen Artikel von ihm: http://www.ariva.de/board/245194?pnr=2582374#jump2582374
Die Vorzüge und das Potenzial von Headwaters hab ich ja schon im Eingangsposting beschrieben. Die Probleme, die die Aktie jetzt drücken, finden sich in den Postings 41 und 42. 28 % "Rabatt" auf den Kurs seit Jubaks Empfehlung finde ich aber schon mal ganz ordentlich, zumal Headwater immer noch solide Gewinne macht (neueste EPS-Range: 2 bis 2,60 Dollar für 2006, Range abhängig von Gesetzgebung und Ölpreis, siehe P. 41/42).
Headwaters ist zum einen eine Wette auf fallende Ölpreise (dann würde die Kohleverflüssigung wieder staatliche Zuschüsse erhalten, die vom mittleren Jahresdurchschnittspreis für Öl abhängen) bzw. Gesetzesänderungen (Section 45k) für die Förderung, zum anderen eine Wette auf die nanotechnischen Verfahren, die die verwertbare Öl-Ausbeute in Raffinerien um 20 % steigern können.
Das Kerngeschäft von Headwaters ist, Flugasche zu entsorgen (Waste Management) und in Baumaterialien einzumischen, das dann weiter verkauft werden. Ein doppeltes Geschäft: Es gibt Geld für die Ascheentsorgung UND für das Baumaterial.
Hier Jubaks Text:
(Auszug aus: http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/jubak/stocks.asp)
Headwaters Incorporated
HW 2/3/06 $37.50000
Think of this as a technology a stock. Yes, you're buying shares in a company with real revenue, $1.1 billion in the fiscal year that ended in September 2005, and real earnings, $2.79 a share. But the true growth prospects for Headwaters (HW) come not from its established business turning coal waste, such as fly ash, into concrete and construction materials, but from its technology-innovation group. That business has just finished testing a technology that promises to improve yields of lighter fuels from heavy oils by 20%, and it is looking to sign its first commercial contract. Other technologies in the group are used to turn coal into liquid fuels and in cleaning coal (and recovering coal from coal waste). These technologies will, I believe, start to contribute significantly to growth in the next few years, and if successfully commercialized should drive multiples on the stock well above today's price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times trailing 12-month earnings per share. As of Feb. 3, I'm adding these shares to Jubak's Picks with a target price of $47 a share by July 2006.
Das KZ von 47 für Juli bleibt wohl eine Illusion. Dennoch ist die Aktie jetzt wirklich günstig. Die Short-Quote ist auch riesig, so dass allein der kommende Short-Squeeze einige Gewinne verspricht.
Hier die Short-Interest-Quote, die bemerkenswert hoch ist. Wenn das Öl fällt (Gold-Blase lässt grüßen!) oder die Gesetzesänderung (Section 45k) kommt, sehen die Shorts alt aus: Es sind 9 x soviele Aktie geshortet, wie es dem täglichen Umsatz entspricht!
Heute kam ein Downgrade, das den Kurs noch einmal 3 % auf jetzt 26,60 USD drückte (dann ist DAS also auch "durch" und enthalten).
Thursday, June 01, 2006
HEADWATERS CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL 9:14 AM
RBC CUTS HEADWATERS PRICE TARGET TO $34 FROM $46 9:15 AM
Als Headwaters im Februar bei 37,50 Dollar stand, empfahl Jim Jubak (MSN, er schreibt auch für Street.com) die Aktie mit KZ 47 Dollar. Jubak ist kein Dummkopf, sondern einer der besten Buy-Side-Analysten, die ich kenne. Man werfe nur einen Blick auf diesen Artikel von ihm: http://www.ariva.de/board/245194?pnr=2582374#jump2582374
Die Vorzüge und das Potenzial von Headwaters hab ich ja schon im Eingangsposting beschrieben. Die Probleme, die die Aktie jetzt drücken, finden sich in den Postings 41 und 42. 28 % "Rabatt" auf den Kurs seit Jubaks Empfehlung finde ich aber schon mal ganz ordentlich, zumal Headwater immer noch solide Gewinne macht (neueste EPS-Range: 2 bis 2,60 Dollar für 2006, Range abhängig von Gesetzgebung und Ölpreis, siehe P. 41/42).
Headwaters ist zum einen eine Wette auf fallende Ölpreise (dann würde die Kohleverflüssigung wieder staatliche Zuschüsse erhalten, die vom mittleren Jahresdurchschnittspreis für Öl abhängen) bzw. Gesetzesänderungen (Section 45k) für die Förderung, zum anderen eine Wette auf die nanotechnischen Verfahren, die die verwertbare Öl-Ausbeute in Raffinerien um 20 % steigern können.
Das Kerngeschäft von Headwaters ist, Flugasche zu entsorgen (Waste Management) und in Baumaterialien einzumischen, das dann weiter verkauft werden. Ein doppeltes Geschäft: Es gibt Geld für die Ascheentsorgung UND für das Baumaterial.
Hier Jubaks Text:
(Auszug aus: http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/jubak/stocks.asp)
Headwaters Incorporated
HW 2/3/06 $37.50000
Think of this as a technology a stock. Yes, you're buying shares in a company with real revenue, $1.1 billion in the fiscal year that ended in September 2005, and real earnings, $2.79 a share. But the true growth prospects for Headwaters (HW) come not from its established business turning coal waste, such as fly ash, into concrete and construction materials, but from its technology-innovation group. That business has just finished testing a technology that promises to improve yields of lighter fuels from heavy oils by 20%, and it is looking to sign its first commercial contract. Other technologies in the group are used to turn coal into liquid fuels and in cleaning coal (and recovering coal from coal waste). These technologies will, I believe, start to contribute significantly to growth in the next few years, and if successfully commercialized should drive multiples on the stock well above today's price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times trailing 12-month earnings per share. As of Feb. 3, I'm adding these shares to Jubak's Picks with a target price of $47 a share by July 2006.
Das KZ von 47 für Juli bleibt wohl eine Illusion. Dennoch ist die Aktie jetzt wirklich günstig. Die Short-Quote ist auch riesig, so dass allein der kommende Short-Squeeze einige Gewinne verspricht.
Hier die Short-Interest-Quote, die bemerkenswert hoch ist. Wenn das Öl fällt (Gold-Blase lässt grüßen!) oder die Gesetzesänderung (Section 45k) kommt, sehen die Shorts alt aus: Es sind 9 x soviele Aktie geshortet, wie es dem täglichen Umsatz entspricht!
.
(Verkleinert auf 96%)
aus dem ersichtlich ist, dass der gesamte Geschäftsbereich Energy Services (zu dem auch Kohleverflüssigung zählt) nur 28 % der Einnahmen ausmacht. Baumaterialien machen rund 50 % aus.
Daher können sich die in Posting 41 und 42 genannten Probleme nur in diesem Sektor (28 %) auswirken. Ob das eine Kursrückgang von 40 % ab dem Hoch bei 44 Dollar rechtfertigt? Ich meine nicht, zumal bei der Kohleverflüssigung das letzte Wort noch nicht gesprochen ist.
www.headwaters.com/nir/index.asp
Daher können sich die in Posting 41 und 42 genannten Probleme nur in diesem Sektor (28 %) auswirken. Ob das eine Kursrückgang von 40 % ab dem Hoch bei 44 Dollar rechtfertigt? Ich meine nicht, zumal bei der Kohleverflüssigung das letzte Wort noch nicht gesprochen ist.
www.headwaters.com/nir/index.asp
.
(Verkleinert auf 96%)
zu Headwaters: unten, fett
Energy
Weighing the Alternatives in Energy
By Richard Suttmeier
5/17/2006 2:03 PM EDT
All the hype about alternative-energy stocks makes me think, here we go again. During the Carter presidency, in the wake of the oil embargo of 1973, the talk was that solar panels, wind and the tides would solve our energy needs.
Did you know that the angular roof of the Citigroup building in Midtown Manhattan was designed to include solar panels to supply its energy needs? Never happened! President Carter wore cardigans in the White House and told Americans to lower their thermostats to reduce fuel use in the winter. He was booted out of office. As soon as oil became plentiful again, the country renewed its overuse of oil.
Today we are running tremendous risks due to the instability of the countries that supply us with crude oil and the fact that 40% of our refinery capacity is in two locations that could be hit by hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Refineries are at full capacity, and I hear only rhetoric that additional capacity will be built. The American response: Not in my backyard.
When crude oil reached $75.35 a barrel on April 21, ethanol plays Archer Daniels Midland (ADM:NYSE) and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX:Nasdaq) renewed momentum runs higher. Earlier this month when crude oil dipped below $70, these stocks took a hit. Other alternative-energy plays peaked out even sooner.
I believe that if the geopolitical risks subside and the hurricane season is benign, Americans will likely forget once again about the need to change our energy policy.
Nymex crude oil is stuck in a random trading range between my semiannual support of $64.58 and my quarterly resistance of $75.94. Higher prices have reduced demand, maintaining a ceiling on prices. However, geopolitical risks have built a floor at much higher levels than in the past. As crude oil trades towards support, the urgency of alternative energy will subside.
Alternative energy and ethanol have been hyped so much recently that most names are overvalued. The industry is 33.6% overvalued, as compared with 13.8% for the overall energy sector. These companies will likely remain overvalued as long as crude oil prices stay high. If you own them, I recommend trading around core holdings by using good-till-canceled limit orders to buy on weakness if they fall to my value levels and sell if they rise to a risky level.
The Ethanol Plays
Archer Daniels Midland, the self-styled supermarket to the world, converts corn to ethyl alcohol, some of which is converted to ethanol. ADM is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 37.8% overvalued, with fair value at $31.30. The weekly chart profile shows overbought momentum with the five-week modified moving average at $38.38.
ADM has gone parabolic, with no risky levels at which to sell. Investors long this stock should be aware of the risk if the ethanol bubble breaks. Investors should hold on to longs for now, but don't add to positions. Consider protecting long-term gains with a sell stop on a weekly close below the rising five-week MMA.
Pacific Ethanol is a 3-year-old company that is developing facilities to produce cellulose-based ethanol and biodiesel in the western U.S. It is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 65.7% overvalued, with fair value at $22.87. The weekly chart profile is overbought, with the five-week MMA at $31.76. Investors should reduce holdings if it rises to my monthly pivot, $39.07, and my monthly risky level, $42.82.
Other Alternative-Energy Plays
Evergreen Solar (ESLR:Nasdaq) already peaked at $17.50 on March 15. The weekly chart profile is negative, with the five-week MMA at $12.09. Even though this name is 21.3% overvalued, investors should be prepared to add to positions on weakness to the 200-day SMA, $11.48, and to my monthly value level, $10.53. It held its 200-day on Tuesday.
Headwaters (HW:NYSE) provides technologies and chemical reagents used to convert coal into a liquid fuel. Headwaters shares peaked at $40.15 on April 3 and fell to a low of $31.64 on Tuesday. The company is rated a buy by ValuEngine and is 12.3% undervalued. The weekly chart profile is negative, with the five-week MMA at $34.91. Investors should buy on weakness to my monthly value level, $28.46, or on a weekly close above the five-week MMA of $34.91, which is declining each week.
If you own other alternative-energy stocks, send me the symbol via email, and I'll respond with my current profile.
Energy
Weighing the Alternatives in Energy
By Richard Suttmeier
5/17/2006 2:03 PM EDT
All the hype about alternative-energy stocks makes me think, here we go again. During the Carter presidency, in the wake of the oil embargo of 1973, the talk was that solar panels, wind and the tides would solve our energy needs.
Did you know that the angular roof of the Citigroup building in Midtown Manhattan was designed to include solar panels to supply its energy needs? Never happened! President Carter wore cardigans in the White House and told Americans to lower their thermostats to reduce fuel use in the winter. He was booted out of office. As soon as oil became plentiful again, the country renewed its overuse of oil.
Today we are running tremendous risks due to the instability of the countries that supply us with crude oil and the fact that 40% of our refinery capacity is in two locations that could be hit by hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Refineries are at full capacity, and I hear only rhetoric that additional capacity will be built. The American response: Not in my backyard.
When crude oil reached $75.35 a barrel on April 21, ethanol plays Archer Daniels Midland (ADM:NYSE) and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX:Nasdaq) renewed momentum runs higher. Earlier this month when crude oil dipped below $70, these stocks took a hit. Other alternative-energy plays peaked out even sooner.
I believe that if the geopolitical risks subside and the hurricane season is benign, Americans will likely forget once again about the need to change our energy policy.
Nymex crude oil is stuck in a random trading range between my semiannual support of $64.58 and my quarterly resistance of $75.94. Higher prices have reduced demand, maintaining a ceiling on prices. However, geopolitical risks have built a floor at much higher levels than in the past. As crude oil trades towards support, the urgency of alternative energy will subside.
Alternative energy and ethanol have been hyped so much recently that most names are overvalued. The industry is 33.6% overvalued, as compared with 13.8% for the overall energy sector. These companies will likely remain overvalued as long as crude oil prices stay high. If you own them, I recommend trading around core holdings by using good-till-canceled limit orders to buy on weakness if they fall to my value levels and sell if they rise to a risky level.
The Ethanol Plays
Archer Daniels Midland, the self-styled supermarket to the world, converts corn to ethyl alcohol, some of which is converted to ethanol. ADM is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 37.8% overvalued, with fair value at $31.30. The weekly chart profile shows overbought momentum with the five-week modified moving average at $38.38.
ADM has gone parabolic, with no risky levels at which to sell. Investors long this stock should be aware of the risk if the ethanol bubble breaks. Investors should hold on to longs for now, but don't add to positions. Consider protecting long-term gains with a sell stop on a weekly close below the rising five-week MMA.
Pacific Ethanol is a 3-year-old company that is developing facilities to produce cellulose-based ethanol and biodiesel in the western U.S. It is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 65.7% overvalued, with fair value at $22.87. The weekly chart profile is overbought, with the five-week MMA at $31.76. Investors should reduce holdings if it rises to my monthly pivot, $39.07, and my monthly risky level, $42.82.
Other Alternative-Energy Plays
Evergreen Solar (ESLR:Nasdaq) already peaked at $17.50 on March 15. The weekly chart profile is negative, with the five-week MMA at $12.09. Even though this name is 21.3% overvalued, investors should be prepared to add to positions on weakness to the 200-day SMA, $11.48, and to my monthly value level, $10.53. It held its 200-day on Tuesday.
Headwaters (HW:NYSE) provides technologies and chemical reagents used to convert coal into a liquid fuel. Headwaters shares peaked at $40.15 on April 3 and fell to a low of $31.64 on Tuesday. The company is rated a buy by ValuEngine and is 12.3% undervalued. The weekly chart profile is negative, with the five-week MMA at $34.91. Investors should buy on weakness to my monthly value level, $28.46, or on a weekly close above the five-week MMA of $34.91, which is declining each week.
If you own other alternative-energy stocks, send me the symbol via email, and I'll respond with my current profile.
Motley Fool
Headwaters' Heady Quarter: Fool by Numbers
By Tim Beyers (TMF Mile High)
May 9, 2006
On May 8, Headwaters (NYSE: HW) released Q2 2006 earnings for the period ended March 31.
* Per-share earnings of $0.40 failed to meet Street estimates because management (Foolishly) decided not to recognize roughly $10 million worth of licensing revenue subject to at-risk Section 29 alternative energy tax credits.
* Regardless, Headwaters saw major improvements in several areas of its business. For example, long-term debt declined by just about $80 million [= 11 % - A.L.]. That, in turn, created $10 million in interest savings that flowed to the bottom line.
(Figures in thousands, except per-share data)
Income Statement Highlights
(siehe Anhang unten)
§
Cash Flow Checkup
No cash flow statement provided. (Whatever.)
Headwaters' Heady Quarter: Fool by Numbers
By Tim Beyers (TMF Mile High)
May 9, 2006
On May 8, Headwaters (NYSE: HW) released Q2 2006 earnings for the period ended March 31.
* Per-share earnings of $0.40 failed to meet Street estimates because management (Foolishly) decided not to recognize roughly $10 million worth of licensing revenue subject to at-risk Section 29 alternative energy tax credits.
* Regardless, Headwaters saw major improvements in several areas of its business. For example, long-term debt declined by just about $80 million [= 11 % - A.L.]. That, in turn, created $10 million in interest savings that flowed to the bottom line.
(Figures in thousands, except per-share data)
Income Statement Highlights
(siehe Anhang unten)
§
Cash Flow Checkup
No cash flow statement provided. (Whatever.)
Options
Dykstra: Back to the Well on This Pick
By Lenny Dykstra
Special to TheStreet.com
6/5/2006 9:55 AM EDT
URL: www.thestreet.com/options/options/10289725.html
...which leads to my pick this week: Headwaters (HW:NYSE) .
The last time I discussed Headwaters was back on April 25, when the stock closed at $33.89. The stock then rallied in anticipation of its earnings announcement May 8, trading as high as $36 on May 3 through May 9, the day after Headwaters said all of its major businesses reported revenue increases for the quarter. By segment, sales of coal combustion products increased 21% to $58.5 million, while sales of construction materials rose 21% to $131.7 million, and revenue from alternative energy rose 23% to $79.5 million.
As noted here, the accompanying spike provided a great opportunity to book profits on the original call on the August $25 calls.
Remember, this is not a "buy-and-hold" operation. Our goal is all about making money; we want to profit at least $1,000 after we purchase our deep in-the-money call. To help ensure that, we set a good till cancel (GTC) limit sell order. This way, we don't have to watch the tape every second the market is open.
We are protecting our investment -- if the stock makes a nice move and spikes up during the trading day, your order will automatically get filled because you set a GTC limit sell order. This will allow you to capture that $1,000 gain without making a phone call, or watching your computer all day.
Fast forward to the present: Headwaters common stock has been completely annihilated since May 18, when it lowered guidance to reflect the idling synthetic fuel facilities because of volatility in oil prices and customers' uncertainty over the phase out of certain tax credits.
I have been following this stock every day, and I have watched those operators just take this stock apart. It has been relentless! But it has finally found a bottom. That is why the Headwaters August $22.50, deep in-the-money calls, which closed Friday at $4.60, look good. This is one of those rare situations where we don't have to go out for to six months -- the company is just too good for this stock to keep going down
[sein Wort in Gottes Gehörgang...]
, and on Friday it acted like it found its bottom. Also, Jim Cramer, recommended Headwaters on his TV show, Mad Money, last week.
Dykstra: Back to the Well on This Pick
By Lenny Dykstra
Special to TheStreet.com
6/5/2006 9:55 AM EDT
URL: www.thestreet.com/options/options/10289725.html
...which leads to my pick this week: Headwaters (HW:NYSE) .
The last time I discussed Headwaters was back on April 25, when the stock closed at $33.89. The stock then rallied in anticipation of its earnings announcement May 8, trading as high as $36 on May 3 through May 9, the day after Headwaters said all of its major businesses reported revenue increases for the quarter. By segment, sales of coal combustion products increased 21% to $58.5 million, while sales of construction materials rose 21% to $131.7 million, and revenue from alternative energy rose 23% to $79.5 million.
As noted here, the accompanying spike provided a great opportunity to book profits on the original call on the August $25 calls.
Remember, this is not a "buy-and-hold" operation. Our goal is all about making money; we want to profit at least $1,000 after we purchase our deep in-the-money call. To help ensure that, we set a good till cancel (GTC) limit sell order. This way, we don't have to watch the tape every second the market is open.
We are protecting our investment -- if the stock makes a nice move and spikes up during the trading day, your order will automatically get filled because you set a GTC limit sell order. This will allow you to capture that $1,000 gain without making a phone call, or watching your computer all day.
Fast forward to the present: Headwaters common stock has been completely annihilated since May 18, when it lowered guidance to reflect the idling synthetic fuel facilities because of volatility in oil prices and customers' uncertainty over the phase out of certain tax credits.
I have been following this stock every day, and I have watched those operators just take this stock apart. It has been relentless! But it has finally found a bottom. That is why the Headwaters August $22.50, deep in-the-money calls, which closed Friday at $4.60, look good. This is one of those rare situations where we don't have to go out for to six months -- the company is just too good for this stock to keep going down
[sein Wort in Gottes Gehörgang...]
, and on Friday it acted like it found its bottom. Also, Jim Cramer, recommended Headwaters on his TV show, Mad Money, last week.
Options
Dykstra: Back to the Well on This Pick
By Lenny Dykstra
Special to TheStreet.com
6/5/2006 9:55 AM EDT
URL: www.thestreet.com/options/options/10289725.html
...which leads to my pick this week: Headwaters (HW:NYSE) .
The last time I discussed Headwaters was back on April 25, when the stock closed at $33.89. The stock then rallied in anticipation of its earnings announcement May 8, trading as high as $36 on May 3 through May 9, the day after Headwaters said all of its major businesses reported revenue increases for the quarter. By segment, sales of coal combustion products increased 21% to $58.5 million, while sales of construction materials rose 21% to $131.7 million, and revenue from alternative energy rose 23% to $79.5 million.
As noted here, the accompanying spike provided a great opportunity to book profits on the original call on the August $25 calls.
Remember, this is not a "buy-and-hold" operation. Our goal is all about making money; we want to profit at least $1,000 after we purchase our deep in-the-money call. To help ensure that, we set a good till cancel (GTC) limit sell order. This way, we don't have to watch the tape every second the market is open.
We are protecting our investment -- if the stock makes a nice move and spikes up during the trading day, your order will automatically get filled because you set a GTC limit sell order. This will allow you to capture that $1,000 gain without making a phone call, or watching your computer all day.
Fast forward to the present: Headwaters common stock has been completely annihilated since May 18, when it lowered guidance to reflect the idling synthetic fuel facilities because of volatility in oil prices and customers' uncertainty over the phase out of certain tax credits.
I have been following this stock every day, and I have watched those operators just take this stock apart. It has been relentless! But it has finally found a bottom. That is why the Headwaters August $22.50, deep in-the-money calls, which closed Friday at $4.60, look good. This is one of those rare situations where we don't have to go out for to six months -- the company is just too good for this stock to keep going down
[sein Wort in Gottes Gehörgang...]
, and on Friday it acted like it found its bottom. Also, Jim Cramer, recommended Headwaters on his TV show, Mad Money, last week.
Dykstra: Back to the Well on This Pick
By Lenny Dykstra
Special to TheStreet.com
6/5/2006 9:55 AM EDT
URL: www.thestreet.com/options/options/10289725.html
...which leads to my pick this week: Headwaters (HW:NYSE) .
The last time I discussed Headwaters was back on April 25, when the stock closed at $33.89. The stock then rallied in anticipation of its earnings announcement May 8, trading as high as $36 on May 3 through May 9, the day after Headwaters said all of its major businesses reported revenue increases for the quarter. By segment, sales of coal combustion products increased 21% to $58.5 million, while sales of construction materials rose 21% to $131.7 million, and revenue from alternative energy rose 23% to $79.5 million.
As noted here, the accompanying spike provided a great opportunity to book profits on the original call on the August $25 calls.
Remember, this is not a "buy-and-hold" operation. Our goal is all about making money; we want to profit at least $1,000 after we purchase our deep in-the-money call. To help ensure that, we set a good till cancel (GTC) limit sell order. This way, we don't have to watch the tape every second the market is open.
We are protecting our investment -- if the stock makes a nice move and spikes up during the trading day, your order will automatically get filled because you set a GTC limit sell order. This will allow you to capture that $1,000 gain without making a phone call, or watching your computer all day.
Fast forward to the present: Headwaters common stock has been completely annihilated since May 18, when it lowered guidance to reflect the idling synthetic fuel facilities because of volatility in oil prices and customers' uncertainty over the phase out of certain tax credits.
I have been following this stock every day, and I have watched those operators just take this stock apart. It has been relentless! But it has finally found a bottom. That is why the Headwaters August $22.50, deep in-the-money calls, which closed Friday at $4.60, look good. This is one of those rare situations where we don't have to go out for to six months -- the company is just too good for this stock to keep going down
[sein Wort in Gottes Gehörgang...]
, and on Friday it acted like it found its bottom. Also, Jim Cramer, recommended Headwaters on his TV show, Mad Money, last week.
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