Grok:
Drawing from Hansen precedent (strong for no-abandonment), court's affirmation of Rise's "beneficial interest" (Aug 2025 ruling), and opposition's environmental focus (potentially leading to compromises): ~75% combined for full/partial wins (up from my prior 75-95% total positives, factoring mgmt confidence). Loss is low but covered by takings pivot (immediate filing post-denial, per updates). Probabilities are subjective but grounded in similar SMARA cases (e.g., 60%+ success for miners asserting vested rights).
Full Win (~35-40%): Court fully grants writ, confirming broad vested rights—no permits needed for full operations/expansion. Hansen directly applies: No abandonment, intent preserved. Unlocks immediate de-risking, financing, and ramp-up—wealth-building catalyst (stock 5-10x+ to C$1.75-3.50/share).
Partial Win (~35-40%): Most likely middle ground—vested rights recognized but scoped (e.g., to historic workings/resources, with phased expansion/CEQA conditions). Per Hansen's nuance, this de-risks core (~50-70K oz/year initial) but adds 6-18 month hurdles for full 100K oz. Still positive: 2-4x stock upside (C$0.70-1.40/share), paving appeals for broader scope.
Loss (~20-25%): Denial upheld (abandonment found, distinguishing from Hansen). Triggers takings suit:Partial Compensation (~40-50% of loss scenarios): Settlement/damages $200-300M (below $400M claim), funding pivots/buybacks—stock recovers 1-2x short-term.
Full Compensation (~30-40% of loss scenarios): $400M+ award (potentially $800M+ with 5M oz valuation)—transformative windfall (10x+ stock).
Overall: 75%+ for value-unlocking outcomes (wins + strong takings), making hold a high-likelihood wealth play. Tail risks (prolonged appeals, dilution) exist, but U.S. gold tightness (production flat at ~180t in 2026) boosts premiums.
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Die sitzen auf ca 5M Oz, High grade und können eine Produktion von 100K / Jahr ansteuern. High grade und Tungsten. 70 Milen Granit stockworks, eine der aussichtreisten Minen in Nordamerika für mich. Wenn die Verhandlungen zu den Minen Rechten positive ausgeht - RIIIISSSSEEEEEE.
(Verkleinert auf 22%)

