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Guru Picks
Gurus Jump Back Into The Oil Patch
Matt Rand; data provided by Marketocracy, 11.15.05, 12:30 PM ET <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
BURLINGAME, CALIF. - With oil falling below $58 a barrel, the top stock pickers at Marketocracy, who’ve been selling energy stocks along with the rest of the market for the last several weeks, bought back in with a vengeance. All of their top five buys by volume were energy stocks.
Houston-based Vaalco Energy (amex: EGY - news - people ) was the biggest buy, with the M100 investing nearly $250,000 in the stock. Vaalco explores for oil and gas in the Gulf Coast region and in West Africa. In early November, the company reported a 25% jump in third-quarter earnings per share to 20 cents and attributed the increase to oil prices that were higher than in the third quarter of 2004. The stock has been zigzagging, down about 38% from August highs near $5 to a low of $3.05 in October. Now, it trades at $3.88, or eight times earnings.
Gurus also added 86.5% to their holdings of Fort Worth, Tex.-based San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (nyse: SJT - news - people ), which owns oil and gas properties in New Mexico. Investors have shaved more than 20% off San Juan’s price since August, and it closed Nov. 14 at $39.29. The trust pays a monthly distribution, which declined along with the stock’s price: July’s distribution was about 28 cents, August about 22 cents and September less than 20 cents.
Total distributions from San Juan for the third quarter were just shy of 70 cents, in line for a 7% annual distribution. The fact that distributions have declined along with the stock price has meant that the yield for unit holders has not increased. Gurus aren’t investing for the dividends here and are looking for a boost in San Juan’s share price.
Another energy trust getting fresh guru funds is Enerplus Resources Fund (nyse: ERF - news - people ), a Canadian trust that yields a hefty 10.3%. In the last two weeks, gurus have added more than 50% to their holdings, with most of that buying in the last week. The trust said last week that third-quarter funds from operations were up 30% to $1.77 per share. Gurus like the trust, which has not been hit as hard in recent months as many other oil and gas stocks have.
Stamford, Conn.-based OMI (nyse: OMM - news - people ) ships oil and gas with its fleet of 51 tankers. The company said in early November that it had bought back 1.3% of its outstanding shares at an average price of $18.17 per share. Gurus joined in on the buying, adding $206,893 to their holdings, increasing their position by more than 120%. The stock trades for $18.49.
China Yuchai International (nyse: CYD - news - people ), which makes diesel engines for automakers and utilities, is trading at the bottom of its 52-week range. Gurus like the price-to-earnings ratio of 4.6, along with a dividend of 4.85%. The stock, at $7.87, trades for slightly less than the Chinese company’s book value.
As for the portfolio pruning, gurus dumped all of their shares of Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Silicon Image (nasdaq: SIMG - news - people ), which sells memory chips to digital display OEMs (original equipment managers). The stock has bounced back more than 40% from its October low of $7.01, but it is still down 50% over the last 52 weeks, to $9.96. Even that price is a lofty 5.5 times book value.
Another technology dump was South Pasadena, Calif.-based Cogent (nasdaq: COGT - news - people ), which makes fingerprint readers for the government. Third-quarter revenue was up 64% to $38.4 million in 2005, but the stock trades for 68 times earnings, and 13% of shares were short as of a month ago. Gurus felt good selling all of their shares last week for more than $25.
Fairfield, Conn.-based IMS Health (nyse: RX - news - people ) was another big sell for the M100. Gurus sold all of their shares of the company, which sells market data to pharmaceuticals, after it lost 15% this autumn. It closed Nov. 14 at $23.75.
Brazilian paper company Votorantim Celulose e Papel (nyse: VCP - news - people ) is down 25% in 2005, to $11.53. Gurus got tired of waiting for gains from the company, which trades for 7.8 times earnings, and they sold off all of their shares last week.
They also dumped shares of Pembroke Pines, Fla.-based Claire’s Stores (nyse: CLE - news - people ), which sells clothing and accessories for teenage girls. Shares are up 17.5% since the beginning of September, to $27.69, in part on news that same-store sales were up 8% in October. Gurus sold ahead of the retailer’s Nov. 17 earnings announcement.
Guru Buys
Vaalco Energy (amex: EGY - news - people )
OMI (nyse: OMM - news - people )
China Yuchai International (nyse: CYD - news - people )
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (nyse: SJT - news - people )
Enerplus Resources Fund (nyse: ERF - news - people )
Guru Sells
Silicon Image (nasdaq: SIMG - news - people )
IMS Health (nyse: RX - news - people )
Cogent (nasdaq: COGT - news - people )
Votorantim Celulose e Papel (nyse: VCP - news - people )
Claire’s Stores (nyse: CLE - news - people )
Marketocracy.com tracks more than 60,000 stock portfolios that are run by amateur investors. Of those, the top 100 performing portfolios are mirrored in a real life mutual fund, the Masters 100 Fund (MOFQX). Each week, Guru Picks analyzes the buys and sells of this best-performing group of investors, known as the M100.
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Guru Picks
Gurus Buy Into Europe, Sell Technology
Matt Rand; data provided by Marketocracy, 11.08.05, 10:25 AM ET
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BURLINGAME, CALIF. -
Even as riot-sparked fires burn Paris, the best-performing investors at Marketocracy are looking to Europe for portfolio growth. This past week, they put new money into a European bank and a fund that specializes in German growth.
The European bank, KHD Humboldt Wedag (nasdaq: KHDH - news - people ), is headquartered in Canada, but mainly does its banking in Switzerland, Germany and China. Up until this month, the company had been called MFC Bancorp and traded under the symbol MXBIF, but it switched in November and tempted new M100 buyers. The gurus have been in and out of this stock over the past couple of years, and their new position is their biggest position of the week, at $125,036. The stock trades for $23.70, or 11.8 times earnings.
The second European buy was the European Equity Fund (nyse: EEA - news - people ), which invests in German companies, such as Siemens, SAP (nyse: SAP - news - people ), BASF, Allianz (nyse: AZ - news - people ) and Bayer (nyse: BAY - news - people ). Gurus started a new position last week, while the fund, which trades for $8.39, was at a more than 9% discount to net asset value. The fund usually trades at an even greater discount, and has been as much as 14% less than NAV in the past year. The fund’s dividend yield is less than 1%.
The M100 also started a new position in Irving, Tex.-based home decoration and crafts retailer Michaels Stores (nyse: MIK - news - people ). Last week, the company said that its third-quarter sales were up 0.8% at stores open more than a year, and up 5% overall from the year-before quarter, to $839.7 million. Gurus bought on the news, and they now have more than $100,000 in the stock, which trades for $33.74.
Another Texas buy was Dallas-based Lone Star Technologies (nyse: LSS - news - people ), which makes steel tubes and pipes for the oil and gas industry. Gurus, who have been staying out of oil for a few weeks, bought in to the company as it announced a marketing agreement with Northwest Pipe (nasdaq: NWPX - news - people ). The stock trades for $46.52, or 7.5 times earnings.
Rounding out the top new buys is Kendle International (nasdaq: KNDL - news - people ), a Cincinnati-based company that does contract research on clinical trials for biotech companies. The stock is up about 220% in the past 52 weeks, to $24.97. That puts it at more than 38 times earnings, but only about 20 times expected 2006 earnings.
As far as positions that the gurus sold off completely, most were technology companies. The M100 dumped all of their shares of LookSmart (nasdaq: LOOK - news - people ), a search engine also-ran that is only trading above $1 because it completed a one-for-five reverse split in late October. At $4.49, the stock is trading at 2.1 times sales, but has no earnings. Gurus took a small uptick on the reverse split as a chance to liquidate what they could from the stock, which once traded for a split-adjusted price of more than $400, back in early 2000.
Another tech dump was Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Maxim Integrated Products (nasdaq: MXIM - news - people ), which makes a variety of semiconductors. The stock dropped nearly 15% in two days in late October when the company said that fiscal first-quarter earnings per share were down 26.2% to 31 cents per share. Maxim has rebounded about 6% since then, to $36.83, largely on news that management was buying back 13.5 million shares, 4% of nearly 330 million outstanding. Gurus used the bounce as an opportunity to clear out of Maxim.
Calabasas, Calif.-based Ixia (nasdaq: XXIA - news - people ) makes hardware that tests networking equipment, and it also dropped and then bounced back recently. The company announced on Oct. 20 that third-quarter net income was up to 13 cents per share from 7 cents per share the year before, and that revenue was up 40% to $42.1 million. The stock dropped 26.2% the next day, but it has since gained back 21.7%, closing Monday at $12.47. Gurus sold all of their shares last week.
Gurus also sold off video editing software company Avid Technology (nasdaq: AVID - news - people ), of Tewksbury, Mass. The stock is up 18%, to $51.70, since announcing that third-quarter sales were up 38.8%, to $204 million, from the year before.
Another cash-out was Oakland, Calif.-based Cost Plus (nasdaq: CPWM - news - people ), a home decoration store. Shares have lost nearly half their value in the past year, to a recent price of $18.19. The stock now trades for 16 times earnings and a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of just 0.8, but gurus want nothing to do with it.
Guru Buys:
KHD Humboldt Wedag (nasdaq: KHDH - news - people )
Michaels Stores (nyse: MIK - news - people )
European Equity Fund (nyse: EEA - news - people )
Lone Star Technologies (nyse: LSS - news - people )
Kendle International (nasdaq: KNDL - news - people )
Guru Sells:
LookSmart (nasdaq: LOOKD - news - people )
Maxim Integrated Products (nasdaq: MXIM - news - people )
Ixia (nasdaq: XXIA - news - people )
Avid Technology (nasdaq: AVID - news - people )
Cost Plus (nasdaq: CPWM - news - people )
Marketocracy.com tracks more than 60,000 stock portfolios that are run by amateur investors. Of those, the top 100 performing portfolios are mirrored in a real life mutual fund, the Masters 100 Fund (MOFQX). Each week, Guru Picks analyzes the buys and sells of this best-performing group of investors, known as the M100.
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Guru Picks
Five Tech Stocks The Best Would Buy
Matt Rand; data provided by Validea, 09.26.05, 6:00 AM ET
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| Click here for Validea's three energy stock picks in its Hot List portfolio, based on the strategies of gurus such as Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, James O'Shaughnessy, John Neff and Ken Fisher. |
William O'Neil
Founder of Investor's Business Daily, O'Neil is known for investing in momentum stocks. He uses past performance as an indication of future results, and his CAN-SLIM system of evaluating stocks is exhaustive. The Validea screen based on his style has a gauntlet of 14 indicators that stocks must pass, including strong earnings growth, decreasing debt-to-equity ratio, insider and institutional ownership, and a couple of relative strength measures.
Validea's William O'Neil Pick: Google (nasdaq: GOOG - news - people )
Headquarters: Mountain View, Calif.
Market Cap: $87.1 billion
Recent Price: $311.90
With a 52-week gain of 161.3%, it's hard to have more relative strength than search advertising firm, Google, whose close rival Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ) has lost 1.9% in that time. The stock trades for an expensive price-to-earnings ratio of 91.4, but analyst expectations of 30% annual growth over the next five years might have something to do with that.
Martin Zweig
Conservative growth is the name of the game for legendary investor Martin Zweig. The Validea screen for Zweig has many flavors of growth, with permutations such as sales growth rate, earnings growth rate for the current quarter and for the past several quarters, and even the growth rate of those growth rates. The Zwieg screen also has certain value investing hurdles such as price earnings, which must be at least five and no more than three times the current market price-to-earnings ratio.
Pick: Trend Micro (nasdaq: TMIC - news - people )
Headquarters: Tokyo, Japan
Market Cap: $4.5 billion
Recent Price: $33.60
With current quarter earnings of 56 cents per share and earnings a year ago of 16 cents per share, the current-quarter growth rate is a formidable 250%. The company, which makes antivirus and security software, has been growing at 23.8% over the past few years.
Ken Fisher
As longtime Forbes readers know, Ken Fisher is best known for his price-to-sales-based investment strategy. In his book Super Stocks, Fisher demonstrated that the lower the stock price is relative to sales, the more attractive its stock is--presuming the company is also growing its earnings and has a strong balance sheet with little debt.
Pick: Yak Communications (nasdaq: YAKC - news - people )
Headquarters: Toronto, Ont.
Market Cap: $52 million
Recent Price: $4.00
This Canadian discount long-distance telecommunications and voice-over-Internet Protocol provider is not for the feint of heart. It sports a tiny $50 million market cap and has fallen over 40% in the last 12 months. However according to Fisher-style benchmarks, it is a four-star holding. Price-to-sales is a mere 0.58, price-to-earnings is under ten and price/earnings to growth is a cheap 0.62. This, plus a return on equity of over 17%, $1.54 per share in cash and little debt make this a compelling Ken Fisher tech stock play.
Peter Lynch
Lynch, whose average return with Fidelity's Magellan Fund was 29.2% per year over a 23-year period, liked stocks with a low price-to-earnings-growth ratio. Simply divide the price-to-earnings ratio by the growth rate, and you'll get this number. Lower than one is generally considered good.
Pick: Seagate Technology (nyse: STX - news - people )
Headquarters: George Town, Cayman Islands
Market Cap: $7 billion
Recent Price: $14.67
Validea uses the average of the three- and five-year earnings-per-share growth rates for its price-to-earnings-growth calculations. For Seagate, that number is 28.9%, meaning that its price-to-earnings ratio of 10.4 gives it a PEG ratio of 0.36. That means that Lynch would likely feast on shares of this hard-drive maker.
Click here for more information and to subscribe to Validea's Hotlist.
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| Company | Price | YTD Price Change | 2005 Estimated EPS | 2004 Vs. 2005 Estimated EPS Growth | Five-Year Average ROI |
| Autodesk (nasdaq: ADSK - news - people ) | $35.29 | -10% | $1.18 | 35% | 19.7% |
| Biomet (nasdaq: BMET - news - people ) | 36.02 | -19 | 1.79 | 15 | 21.1 |
| eBay (nasdaq: EBAY - news - people ) | 35.50 | -39 | 0.79 | 30 | 8.9 |
| Garmin (nasdaq: GRMN - news - people ) | 47.41 | -22 | 2.37 | 15 | 26.9 |
| Network Appliance (nasdaq: NTAP - news - people ) | 28.62 | -16 | 0.79 | 27 | 9.0 |
| Robert Half International (nyse: RHI - news - people ) | 26.66 | -11 | 1.17 | 48 | 12.2 |
| Starbucks (nasdaq: SBUX - news - people ) | 51.96 | -17 | 1.19 | 25 | 13.1 |
| Varian Medical Systems (nyse: VAR - news - people ) | 38.61 | -11 | 1.48 | 25 | 19.7 |
Prices as of July 12.
*EPS: Earnings per share.
**ROI: Return on investment (annual after-tax income divided by average total capital during the year).
Sources: Reuters Fundamentals, Thomson First Call via FactSet Research Systems
Varian, hat sich toll entwickelt, die anderen habe ich noch nicht angesehen.
