Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

15.12.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE

ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 15.12.2025

Target price: EUR 13.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

TB2 boxes out the bears; chg. est & PT

During Q3 '25, Tonies launched the Toniebox 2 (TB2), marking its most

significant innovation sincethe original Toniebox (TB1) in 2016. With this

report, we highlight how TB2 secures additional growthpotential to this

already upbeat investment case:

The TB2 effectively substantiialy increases the adressable market to 1-9

year olds (prev. 3-7year olds) by adding the interactive play format

"Tonieplay", especially relevant for the age group 5-9and also introduced

"My First Tonies", a line of figurines designed for children aged one or

older.Besides that, notable hardware upgrades, further content partnerships

and likely higher usernumbers, should lay the foundation for a strong

demand, which is visible already.

Unmatched competitive position. Being the first mover and effectively the

inventor of a completelynew toy category has turned tonies into the category

leader of screen-free entertainment for kidswith the largest customer base

worldwide. tonies unique ecosystem creates strong lock-in effects , where

kids want to expand their beloved figurines collection that leads to higher

engagementrates. On the partner side, tonies is the go-to content platform

for global licensors (e.g. Disney,PawPatrol, Hasbro, Pokémon), given its

large worldwide installed base and broad reach.

Next to growth from product innovations, tonies has ample growth from

internationalization andmarket roll-outs ahead. Especially in the US

(currently c. 10% market penetration, far below DACH levels of c. 50%),

tonies should be able to more than double sales to EUR 473m by FY'28e

(eNuW).This should be driven by rising demand from retailers and expanding

visibility at their stores aswell as strong customer awareness due to an

exceptionally high NPS of 77. Next to the US andDACH, tonies'

data-driven approach allows it to make expansion decisions based on

alreadyknown customer insights. Therefore, we expect similarly or even

stronger growth profile in thesegment ROW, where segment sales are expected

to grow at a 41% CAGR to reach EUR 308m inFY'28e (eNuW).

DACH serves as a blue-print (23.1% EBITDA margin in FY'24) for

profitability. North America (2.5% EBITDA margin in FY'24) and ROW (2.6%

EBITDA margin in FY'24) should converge to DACH'smargin profile in the

long-run, however only after the cost intensive expansion is less

pronouncedand sufficient scale is reached.

With rising group margins, improving WC dynamics and a capital-light set up,

tonies transitionsever more into a cash generative company.

Hence, we expect FCFs to expand from mostlynegative territory in the past to

EUR 61m by FY'28e. Going forward, the upcoming CMD in Q2'26 (nodate announced

yet) should deliver further insights into its mid-term growth outlook

andmanagement's planned use of future FCFs.

Against this backdrop, we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our

DCF-based PT to EUR 13.00 (old: EUR 11.00) as the TB2 launch provides more

confidence on tonies overall growth and margin trajectory.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=528be242fc73c68e252a52f3d021f78b

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Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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