Professor Nordhaus von Yale University hat da eine ziemlich kritische Studie verfasst,die heute in der New York Times in Kurzfassung abgedruckt ist :
danach sieht es gar nicht gut aus,wenn der Ölpreis nur etwa bis 27 Euro fällt...und noch schlimmeres wird prophezeit für einen längeren Krieg!Nordhaus befürchtet auch steigende Zinsen
In the first few days of the war, the premium in oil prices had seemed to be vanishing — dropping by Friday to under $27 a barrel from a peak of $39.99 during New York trading on Feb. 27. If that trend held, the war's indirect impact on the economy could be minimal, according to a study by William D. Nordhaus, a professor of economics at Yale. And yet, yesterday, as it appeared that Iraqi resistance might be stiffening, oil prices rose.
In the worst case, a price spike could cost the United States as much as $391 billion over 10 years, Professor Nordhaus wrote. The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington forecast that a prolonged war accompanied by serious terrorist attacks could drain $472 billion from the gross domestic product in this year alone, or 4.5 percent. A loss of that magnitude could qualify as another recession.
On the other hand, a successful conclusion to the United States-led invasion could give the economy an immediate shot in the arm for the second half of the year. A report published in November by the center suggested that the economy could gain an extra $52 billion in growth in the best case.
The direct cost of the war to the federal government, which the White House estimated yesterday at $70 billion to $90 billion, could also hurt the economy, according to some experts. Swelling budget deficits and greater borrowing by the government, they argue, could push up long-term interest rates.
danach sieht es gar nicht gut aus,wenn der Ölpreis nur etwa bis 27 Euro fällt...und noch schlimmeres wird prophezeit für einen längeren Krieg!Nordhaus befürchtet auch steigende Zinsen
In the first few days of the war, the premium in oil prices had seemed to be vanishing — dropping by Friday to under $27 a barrel from a peak of $39.99 during New York trading on Feb. 27. If that trend held, the war's indirect impact on the economy could be minimal, according to a study by William D. Nordhaus, a professor of economics at Yale. And yet, yesterday, as it appeared that Iraqi resistance might be stiffening, oil prices rose.
In the worst case, a price spike could cost the United States as much as $391 billion over 10 years, Professor Nordhaus wrote. The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington forecast that a prolonged war accompanied by serious terrorist attacks could drain $472 billion from the gross domestic product in this year alone, or 4.5 percent. A loss of that magnitude could qualify as another recession.
On the other hand, a successful conclusion to the United States-led invasion could give the economy an immediate shot in the arm for the second half of the year. A report published in November by the center suggested that the economy could gain an extra $52 billion in growth in the best case.
The direct cost of the war to the federal government, which the White House estimated yesterday at $70 billion to $90 billion, could also hurt the economy, according to some experts. Swelling budget deficits and greater borrowing by the government, they argue, could push up long-term interest rates.
