Test der 10999

heute im DOW erwartet. Natürlich erst nach 17:30, damit der DAX keinen Schaden nimmt.

Loaded for Bear: Walter Deemer Interview

in Markets | Psychology/Sentiment | Technical Analysis

We last mentioned Walter Deemer's views on the cyclical bull, secular bear market back in 2004. He was profiled again last week in Barron's.

Here's an excerpt:

You've been pointing to the Nasdaq as the most vulnerable area of the market for a long time. Are you surprised it has held up?

I'm surprised because in a normal four-year cycle -- and I keep going back to the four-year cycle, because it has worked since the end of World War II, and when something works as long as that, you have got to believe in it -- the market goes up for a little more than two years and then goes sideways as it forms a top.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But the point of demarcation in the average comes usually somewhere late in the second or early in the third year, which would have been somewhere in late 2004 or early 2005. Yet the market has just hung in there and hung in there and hung in there. That doesn't mean you can't have a full-fledged four-year cycle decline, because some of them only take three or four months to complete, and that doesn't mean the Nasdaq is still not vulnerable.

What's activity in the Rydex funds pointing to?

At the peak a couple of weeks ago, 37% of Rydex's sector-fund money was in their energy funds, which is a huge, huge number, especially since they only have two energy funds. I'm convinced the Rydex Fund players are doing the same sort of thing that hedge funds are doing. I think a lot of the smaller hedge funds are using the Rydex funds to move in and out of the market, in and out of sectors, and in and out of bearish funds. I'm seeing general complacency.

I should cite another study, too, which is the ISI Group's hedge-fund survey. A couple of weeks ago, their gross exposure hit an all-time high, which means hedge funds were more exposed to the market than they have ever been before -- which possibly can be explained by the lower volatility: It takes more dollars to achieve the same result. But, at the same time, the net exposure was just about at an all-time high. It is a contrary indicator.

The hedge funds are the driving force in the market these days, and they are still most bullish at tops and most bearish at bottoms. The Rydex numbers confirm there is a lot of bullishness, or to put it another way, there is not much active bearishness. People maybe talking bearish, but they don't seem to be acting bearish." (emphasis added).

 

Source:
Loaded for Bear
Interview With Walter Deemer, Publisher and Principal of Technical Analysis, DTR
SANDRA WARD
Barron's, Monday, February 20, 2006
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB114021824432777477.html

möglicher wird es nur ein kurzer Peak nach unten.  

n Schliesskrampf :-(

CG13DU .... könnte heute was werden ;-)

Schließkrampf? Haste Verstopfung oder watt? ;o))



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VIVA ARIVA!  

na vor allem, weil wir im DAX ja jeden Scheiß mitmachen, auch wenn´s nur den dämlichen Dow betrifft - egal welche Richtung.
Ich geh ja auch nicht in den Supermarkt, und sag dem Geschäftsführer -wissen sie, sie müssen noch das GAP schliessen, seit der letzten Preiserhöhung - mannmannmann :-(

ich heiße Spuk

geschlossen ;-) Das Eröffnungsgap von gestern oder von heute oder beide ;-)

Beste Grüße vom Gesellen    

wahrscheinlich kurz abtauchen und dann nach oben durchstarten. Maybe

dann siehst Du noch ein gap vom 14.02. ;-)

Beste Grüße vom Gesellen    

Beste Grüße vom Gesellen    

Z-Dax steht für ZOCKER-Dax, da war der "Neue Markt" ja fast schon harmlos dagegen. Das ist doch schon alles ein Witz, die letzten Tage.

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VIVA ARIVA!  

kannst auch Spuki sagen - nur "Spuck", das hasse ich wie die Pest.

hab ja auch ca 84 Mal spuk oder spuki geschrieben... Frag nicht, wie sich das "c" da reingemogelt hat...

Böser linker Zeigefinger! ;o)



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VIVA ARIVA!  

Beste Grüße vom Gesellen    

nichts mehr dazwischen

Ich mach für heute Schluss.