Wenn ich Trottel denke das ist eine wichtige Information und jemand wie du mit einem guten Blick für die Dinge postet das gleich - fühle ich mich bestätigt...
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Nicht so vieles Pessimismus, aber auch nicht so vieles Optimismus !!!
I believe that the biggest mistake of all the investors (in this thread and in the real life) is that they are always either full long either full short.
And they dont change their minds until its too late to do so.
1 month ago the majority of the investors was totally pessimistic. All of you were shorting until last weekend.
Now with the departure of Berlusconi, the majority is celebrating (all around the world).
WHY ?
Italy has earned some months. MONTHS. I know the situation from inside. Watch Greece. Greece went into an IMF-Europe rescue.
Before the Greek rescue, the markets were afraid. After the rescue, the markets were celebrating. DAX was celebrating for 1 year !!! It reached 7.400. But the problem was there.
In Greece, NOONE could imagine what DEFLATION meant. In the first 5-6 months, all the taverns were full of Greeks eating and drinking ouzo (i know this cause i live here). NOONE could believe what it was coming.
But the austerity measures took some time before they hitted the economy. And once they did, the economy COULD NOT escape from the TRAP. A death spiral has started.
Austerity measures = salaries down = consumption down = revenues down = GDP down = DEFICIT / GDP UP = more measures needed usw.
Its INEVITABLE.
Italy will fall in 5-6 months in the trap. It has just started. Italian banks are in trouble. So they will reduce lending. By doing so, no new homes will be build, car registrations will go down. The Italian companies will have to borrow at rates around 8%-9% (if a country borrows @ 6-7%, its companies cant borrow cheaper) and so the difficulties will begin. Then they will start the layoffs. Unemployment will rise and rise. Unemployment rising will lead to a further fall in consumption. A further fall in consumption will lead to further decline in GDP, in tax receipts. New layoffs will be needed. And the death spiral will have NO END.
Along with the fact that Italians are of Mediterranean mentality, strikes will be a daily fact. Italians as Greeks will be every day in the streets and social unrest will cause political unrest (exactly like Greece).
Italy is now in the trap. It cannot escape alone unless a God helps her. Or lets say the God named ECB !!!!
So DONT be either all long or all short. And dont be stupid.
Take advantage of the mood in the markets, but always have in mind what will come in some months when austerity brings heavy recession.
Bulls now and after a while bears. And after the inevitable collapse of the euro, FULL and TOTALLY LONG IN GERMANY. I believe in your country and your people.
Dont stick to one position only. BE FLEXIBLE in order to earn from the markets !!!
Schönes WE !!!
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| Wertung | Antworten | Thema | Verfasser | letzter Verfasser | letzter Beitrag | |
62 | 4.858 | 2026-QV-GDAXi-DJ-GOLD-EURUSD-JPY | lo-sh | Achterbahn7 | 16:16 | |
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| 52 | 1.350 | Die Links zu den Sternenkinder (DAX Spiel) Teil2 | BackhandSmash | BackhandSmash | 09:30 | |
| 101 | 39.414 | QuoVadisDax - das Original - Nachfolgethread | MHurding | Absaufklausel | 08:07 | |
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