Zurück
SUBJECT: RE: Canaccord analyst said.... Posted By: captaincam
Post Time: 3/26/2007 00:34
« Previous Message Next Message »
TO1,
I have looked at a seismic cross-section for Laurel Valley. At the drilling location, the Kopervik shows a huge amplitude anomaly and is approximately 500 feet thick. I predict it will contain a retrograde gas condensate which will produce 100 bbls/MMcf of pentanes plus which is in equilibrium with a 40 degree API gravity oil leg somewhere downdip. The Birch is difficult to interpret but could be 200 to 400 feet thick and according to the IFR\'s consultant explorationists cartoon could be connected to the Kopervik and so have stacked pay. The Piper zone is far down the hole from these two and appears to pinch out much farther to the east. Since the Piper is lower in the graben it was subject to much more subsidence than the other two zones so has a better chance of trapping oil, however, this is a combination structural stratigraphic play. Updip the trapping will be due to pinchouts against the highs. Laterally, there will be no sand because the sand is transported in the graben not on the adjacent highs(ie. on the upthrown side of the faults). Remember that this play is completely covered by three dimensional seismic and the location of the sand can be fairly well defined. Although trapping is probably the largest risk factor, I personally do not think it is that great, 1 in 3 to 1 in 5,(of course, AIMHO). Now, to my biggest point of contention with you about how much one well will prove. This Kopervik structure is very large and is about 15 sections up dip of the current location, not my numbers, and with an intersection of all 500 feet of hydrocarbon bearing sand on this well approximately 1 Billion barrels of recoverable oil would be inferred. Since I believe this will be a gas condensate discovery in the Kopervik this would be about 5 Trillion standard cubic feet of gas with about 500 MMSTB of condensate. Now how much downdip? Well, they will have to drill more wells to ascertain that. Another risk factor is how much productive sand is in that 500 foot seismic amplitude anomaly, so factor down these numbers by the net to gross pay ratios. Please distinguish the difference between inferred and proven. Reservoir engineering trained investors who do not have to abide by strict standards will have bracketed estimates of the size of the Laurel Valley discovery, should we be so lucky to have one, as soon as they see what the bit and the MWD tools have seen on April 14, 2007. Bear in mind also that if there is no water intersected in the discovery well that there will be possibly huge further amounts of reserves downdip. If pressures were measured in the acquifers that established the highest known water levels then hydrodynamic calculations will allow Oilexco\'s reservoir engineers to postulate the oil water interfaces and thus infer more about the size of reserves than the rest of us. By the way, Cannacord did not make the estimate of 600 MMSTBO. That was published in an early presentation found on the Eternal Energy website. This is a huge play and in truth much bigger than the P50 estimate indicates. If you had done your due diligence, you would have discovered that there is, actually, a 10% probability that the recoverable reserves could be larger than 1874 MMSTBO, should there be a discovery. I have commented on this issue before on the IFR BB and it seems that there is an agenda to disemminate disinformation about the magnitude of this play. Investors, do your due diligence, look at IFR\'s and Eternal Energy\'s websites. The information is there. AIMHO. Captaincam.
Post Time: 3/26/2007 00:34
« Previous Message Next Message »
TO1,
I have looked at a seismic cross-section for Laurel Valley. At the drilling location, the Kopervik shows a huge amplitude anomaly and is approximately 500 feet thick. I predict it will contain a retrograde gas condensate which will produce 100 bbls/MMcf of pentanes plus which is in equilibrium with a 40 degree API gravity oil leg somewhere downdip. The Birch is difficult to interpret but could be 200 to 400 feet thick and according to the IFR\'s consultant explorationists cartoon could be connected to the Kopervik and so have stacked pay. The Piper zone is far down the hole from these two and appears to pinch out much farther to the east. Since the Piper is lower in the graben it was subject to much more subsidence than the other two zones so has a better chance of trapping oil, however, this is a combination structural stratigraphic play. Updip the trapping will be due to pinchouts against the highs. Laterally, there will be no sand because the sand is transported in the graben not on the adjacent highs(ie. on the upthrown side of the faults). Remember that this play is completely covered by three dimensional seismic and the location of the sand can be fairly well defined. Although trapping is probably the largest risk factor, I personally do not think it is that great, 1 in 3 to 1 in 5,(of course, AIMHO). Now, to my biggest point of contention with you about how much one well will prove. This Kopervik structure is very large and is about 15 sections up dip of the current location, not my numbers, and with an intersection of all 500 feet of hydrocarbon bearing sand on this well approximately 1 Billion barrels of recoverable oil would be inferred. Since I believe this will be a gas condensate discovery in the Kopervik this would be about 5 Trillion standard cubic feet of gas with about 500 MMSTB of condensate. Now how much downdip? Well, they will have to drill more wells to ascertain that. Another risk factor is how much productive sand is in that 500 foot seismic amplitude anomaly, so factor down these numbers by the net to gross pay ratios. Please distinguish the difference between inferred and proven. Reservoir engineering trained investors who do not have to abide by strict standards will have bracketed estimates of the size of the Laurel Valley discovery, should we be so lucky to have one, as soon as they see what the bit and the MWD tools have seen on April 14, 2007. Bear in mind also that if there is no water intersected in the discovery well that there will be possibly huge further amounts of reserves downdip. If pressures were measured in the acquifers that established the highest known water levels then hydrodynamic calculations will allow Oilexco\'s reservoir engineers to postulate the oil water interfaces and thus infer more about the size of reserves than the rest of us. By the way, Cannacord did not make the estimate of 600 MMSTBO. That was published in an early presentation found on the Eternal Energy website. This is a huge play and in truth much bigger than the P50 estimate indicates. If you had done your due diligence, you would have discovered that there is, actually, a 10% probability that the recoverable reserves could be larger than 1874 MMSTBO, should there be a discovery. I have commented on this issue before on the IFR BB and it seems that there is an agenda to disemminate disinformation about the magnitude of this play. Investors, do your due diligence, look at IFR\'s and Eternal Energy\'s websites. The information is there. AIMHO. Captaincam.
Text zur Anzeige gekürzt. Gesamten Beitrag anzeigen »
