Meinungen zu Falkland Oil and Gas ???

wie toll und erwähnenswert die Untersuchungen ausgefallen sind.

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited(“FOGL” or “the Company”)Placing of New Ordinary SharesThe board of FOGL is pleased to announce the placing by KBC Peel Hunt Ltd of 11,764,706 ordinary shares of 0.002p (“New Ordinary Shares”) at a price of 85p per share to raise £10,000,000 (approximately £9,700,000 after expenses). The New Ordinary Shares have been placed with certain institutional and other investors, including directors.The board is also pleased to announce that it has entered into a further 2D seismic contract with Geophysical Services Incorporated of Calgary to acquire a minimum 8,000 km of 2D seismic with an option for the Company to extend the survey subject to agreement between FOGL and Hardman. The programme is scheduled to cover areas in both the 2002 and the 2004 licence areas and will concentrate on areas of interest identified in the initial 9,450 km survey which has just been completed. The new 2D seismic programme will use the GSI Admiral boat and is expected to commence in June 2005. Hardman Resources Ltd is also a party to the new 2D seismic contract.Reasons for the placingFOGL was formed in May 2004 to invest in an offshore oil exploration programme in licence areas south and east of the Falkland Islands. It was admitted to AIM in October 2004, raising £12 million in the process. FOGL then held (and retains) a 77.5% interest in licences covering approximately 33,700 sq km; Hardman Resources Limited holds the remaining 22.5% interest in these licences. In December 2004, the Company was awarded a 100% interest in licences over an additional 50,000 sq kms adjacent to its existing licence areas.On 3 May 2005, FOGL announced the preliminary results of a 9,450 km 2D seismic survey over most of its licence areas. The survey has identified 130 leads, far in excess of the eight leads identified at the time of the AIM IPO in 2004. Given the positive results, FOGL announced that it planned to significantly increase the scope of its exploration programme. Use of proceedsThe net funds raised, together with existing cash resources which totalled approximately £11,000,000 at 31 March 2005, will enable the Company to fund its plans to conduct further seismic surveys targeting all the leads but with particular emphasis on the 50 most promising. The aim will be to develop about 20 high quality, technically sound and potentially economically viable drilling prospects. This programme is expected to include a minimum of 8,000 km and possibly up to 15,000 km of 2D seismic survey, through the contract with GSI referred to above, and possibly a 2,000 sq km 3D seismic survey. The funds raised will be sufficient, in the opinion of the Directors and on the basis of current estimates, to fund this work and cover the Company's overheads through 2006.The strengthened funding position should also improve the Company’s position when negotiating with potential farm-in partners.Further details of the placingApplication will be made to London Stock Exchange plc for the New Ordinary Shares to be admitted to trading on AIM. Admission of the New Ordinary Shares is expected to become effective on 3 June 2005.The New Ordinary Shares will be issued credited as fully paid and will rank pari passu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares, including the right to receive all dividends and other distributions declared or paid thereon following admission.The placing is conditional upon the placing agreement between KBC Peel Hunt Ltd and the Company having become unconditional in all respects and not having been terminated prior to admission of the New Ordinary Shares, and admission of the New Ordinary Shares becoming effective by 3 June 2005 or such later date (not being later than 17 June 2005) as the Company and KBC Peel Hunt may agree.John Armstrong, Executive Chairman, commented:“The results of the 2D seismic announced in May were very encouraging and far exceeded our most optimistic estimates. It was clear from the large number of leads identified that the amount of work needed to maximise the potential of our acreage had increased significantly.“The proceeds of this placing will provide us with the necessary funds to expand the scope of our planned exploration programme and give us the best possible chance of success.”Enquiries:FOGL

This year, the trend has magnified. The five months from January to May saw another 14 issues, raising £115.77 million ($211 million). Of the top 10 largest AIM companies by market capitalization, four are now oil and gas explorers.


One surprising beneficiary of this burst of activity has been the Falkland Islands, which has attracted a number of small UK explorers to its barren shores. Three firms -- Borders and Southern, Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL) and Desire Petroleum -- have together raised over £50 million ($91 million) from investors on AIM in recent months, specifically to find oil and gas in the rough and icy waters around this remote Southern Atlantic archipelago.


Despite previously being regarded as an exploration backwater, the area has caught the imagination of the market. FOGL shares have more than doubled since they listed in October, giving the firm a market value of around £73 million ($133 million). It plans to return to the market soon to raise more funds while interest is high (IOD Jun.1,p9).


The value of Borders and Southern stock has rise by around 40% since its listing just two weeks ago.


Desire and FOGL were among the most traded securities on AIM in recent months.


Another firm that is currently private but hopes to list on AIM in July is Rockhopper Exploration -- which typifies the entrepreneurial spirit that is the hallmark of the new breed of small explorers.


The firm was founded last year by a UK-based lawyer and property developer who had invested in some Falklands offshore acreage, and who contacted industry veteran Pierre Jungels with the view to forming an oil exploration company. In January Jungels -- who previously held a series of senior positions at Royal Dutch/Shell, Fina (since merged into Total) and British Gas before becoming chief executive of UK independent Enterprise Oil -- accepted the position of executive chairman of Rockhopper.


" I was interested in what he was trying to do because I truly believe the North Falkland Basin has huge potential," Jungels told International Oil Daily in an interview. " Fina, Lasmo, Amerada Hess and Shell had together drilled six wells back in the 1990s, five of which had various forms of oil and gas shows. So there is no doubt there is a working hydrocarbon environment, the question now is to find out how the oil has migrated through what looks like extremely large source rock, and whether it is producible."


Shell's former acreage -- licenses PLO32 and PLO33 -- were picked up 100% by Rockhopper this month, taking its North Falklands interests to six blocks (IOD Jun.8,p10). A 3-D seismic survey and a two-well drilling program were conducted on the Shell acreage during the 1990s, with gas shows at one well and oil shows at the other, but neither was tested.


" There is an old saying that a sure way to find oil is to go into old Shell acreage," Jungels quipped. " It is very likely that the Shell drillers would have wanted to stay and continue exploring, but the price of oil dropped below $10/bbl, and at that price, economic recovery from the Falklands would have been extremely difficult."


Rockover's economic analysis indicates that at $30 or $40/bbl, the story is very different, and even small finds of 40 million bbl could be profitably developed. " The Falklands administrative, legal and fiscal regimes are all very good," Jungels said, " And although the global rig market is very tight at the moment, we are in negotiations to bring a rig down from Brazil at a reasonable price." The Falkland Islands levies a 9% royalty on production and 25% corporation tax on profits.


The Northern Falkland Basin is around the same size as the central UK North Sea, with similar weather conditions and relatively shallow depths. In terms of exploration activity, Jungels views it as being the equivalent of the North Sea in the 1960s.


The much deeper southern basin is completely unexplored, and that is where FOGL and Australian partner Hardman Resources own interests in seven blocks.


With plans to carry out a new 3-D seismic survey and an exploration well on its ex-Shell blocks, plus a farm-in to three wells to be drilled soon by fellow UK explorer Desire Petroleum nearby, the financial commitments are piling up for Rockhopper. Plans to raise over £20 million ($36 million) through an AIM flotation as early as next month are now in motion. " It will be an exciting 20 months," Jungels said.


However, he remains wary of going to the market at a time when sentiment could be turning, following unsavory events at Regal Petroleum -- the most actively traded AIM stock in May -- and Sudan specialist White Nile Petroleum (IOD May23,p5).


Jungels admitted that " a bit of a bubble" had developed, with more nonspecialist investment funds moving in and investing in AIM exploration firms. " They've been a bit spooked by Regal and one or two other events, but the specialist funds and those that really know the sector are all still interested in investing in quality companies with good acreage and solid backgrounds," Jungels stated. " But they will be more discriminating now in their selection processes."


Regal's shares plummeted after the company announced in mid-May that its Kallirachi well offshore Greece -- earlier touted as a 1 billion barrel prospect -- had proved uncommercial. Negative sentiment from Regal hit other AIM-listed exploration stocks (IOD May19,p9).


Still, the widening of investor interest has created a rare window of opportunity for industry veterans to start up their own operations, raise a sizable amount of cash and take advantage of acreage opportunities that big integrated firms have either dismissed or overlooked.


" The small independents are always a bit quicker on their feet than the majors at identifying and acquiring under-explored acreage, and we have seen this in Mauritania, India, Kenya and many other places," Jungels said. " The big boys arrive late, farm in and take operatorship, but that's fine, that's the way the industry works."


greets,

wenn das auf schlußkursbasis hält, wäre der weg zunächst mal frei bis zum ATH.
Gut wäre, wenn bis dahin Details zu den Angeboten der fetten Ölgesellschaften bekannt würden. Herr Armstrong hält sich da ja noch ziemlich bedeckt.

vom November 2004 liegen?
ich finde sie nicht mehr und wollte was nachschlagen.
Ansonsten gibt´s ein vielversprechendes update vom GPH.
just 4 U 2 know...
schönes Wochenende
Nussriegel

Nick Lambert                                               
+44 (0) 20 7861 3232

FOGL Granted Extension to Exploration Licences

FOGL announces that it has been granted a two year extension to its
approximately 33,000 sq km licence held in joint venture with Hardman Resources,
which owns 22.5% of the licence. As a result of the extension, Phase 1 of the
licence now runs until July 2007 and Phase 2 will run from July 2007 until July
2010. During Phase 1, FOGL and Hardman will be required to acquire and interpret
an additional 4,000 km of 2D seismic and 2,000 sq km of 3D seismic, and to enter
Phase II in July 2007, FOGL and Hardman will be required to commit to the
drilling of two (2) wells.

The extension will allow more time to investigate the increased number of leads
identified during the recently completed 9,450 km 2D seismic survey acquired
across all of FOGL's Licence areas. This survey found more than 130 leads,
compared to an initial eight previously identified.

The new 4,000 km 2D seismic survey has already commenced and the joint venture
expects to conduct the 3D seismic survey later this year and into 2006. In
addition to the new 4,000km of 2D seismic in the FOGL-Hardman area, FOGL will
also record a further 4,000km in its 100% 2004 Northern Licence.

To date FOGL has recorded approximately 1,600 km of these new surveys. The
overall aim of this work is to define and prioritise 20 prospects for drilling
across all of FOGL's Licence areas and to develop a multi-well drilling
programme, targeted to begin in 2007.

There have been no changes to the licence terms for the 50,000 sq km licence
area that was awarded to FOGL in December 2004."

John Armstrong
Executive Chairman
Telephone: (07) 3211 1122
Fax: (07) 3211 0133

Hallo Nusstriegel,

Dank Energulf habe ich jetzt endlich die Kohle zusamman,die ich brauchte um fett in Fogl einzusteigen!! Das ist nämlich meine Lieblingsaktie ! Wünsche dir und uns noch eine super Zeit mit Fogl ...

MFG

Chalifmann

schön, dass hier außer mit noch wer postet.
ich hab  schon überlegt, ob ich es lassen soll. Aber so habe ich meine Infos auch für mich gut beieinander.
klar, energulf war ein knaller, aber leider ohne mich.
Genau wie PVA, die hatte ich wenigstens im Spiel-Depot.
Naja, man kann nicht überall dabei sein.
Aber wenn man FOGL gekauft hat, als ich den Thread eröffnet habe, hat man jedenfalls auch nix falsch gemacht.
das schöne ist:
Wenn´s richtig läuft mit FOGL, dann muß ich NIE wieder arbeiten,
beim Totalauffall verliere ich ungefähr das, was ich seit Januar 05 an Aktiengewinnen gemacht habe. Ist doch ein sehr akzeptables Chancen-Risiko-Verhältnis.
Schönes Wochenende,
Nussriegel

Hi,

An einen Totalausfall glaube ich nicht,wie soll der zustande kommen ? Ich denke mal wir fangen 2007 zu bohren an,und dann wird es "Elefantenfelder" regnen,also Felder mit mehr als 5 Mrd. Barrel pro Feld. Aber auch schon vor 2007 ist die Aktie enorm aussichtsreich,wenn nämlich ,wie bei energulf,ein Big Boy der Branche (z.b.)Shell interesse zeigt hier einzusteigen ....


P.S. Bin mit momentan 20.000 Stück zu 1,80 bei Fogl dabei,Rest Energulf.Wieviele Fogl hälst du,wenn die Frage nicht zu indiskret ist ..... ?

Gruss

Chalifmann

Hi Thomas,

Vielen Dank für das Passwort ,aber Sven Lorenz kenne ich ehrlich gesagt garnicht ,covert der etwa FOGL ? Habe meine energulf,der "Tipp" kam von "Bullvestor", komplett verkauft und FOGL nochmals von 20.000 auf 30.000 Stück erhöt !! Schau dir mal den Chart an ,wir sind drauf und dran das ATH zu knacken,da will ich doch voll dabei sein ! Bei Bullvestor kann man sich übrigens kostenlos per E-mail anmelden,falls du Interesse hast ,aber meine Erfahrung mit denen zeigt,einen besseren Wert als Fogl haben die sowieso nicht.Die Bar Monaco ist doch der Wert mit dem schwimmenden Spielcasino,oder? Hab ich keine Bock drauf,war mal ne Zeit lang erfolgreich in ISLE (Isle of Capris Casinos) investiert,kannst du dir bei Finance.Yahoo ja mal anschauen,aber alles nicht mehr mein Ding,ich steh im Moment voll auf Fogl,meine EINZIGSTE (!) Aktie. Übrigens,wenn du Interesse an Biotech-Aktien hast (z.b.Geron(!)) hast du in mir den idealen Ansprechpartner gefunden ,ich kenn mich da ziemlich gut aus,bis demnächst also ....

MFG

Chalifmann

das ist jetzt kein Witz, oder
ich hätte mir eigentlich etwas mehr Diskretion gewünscht, Chalif.
Daher die Boardmail anstatt eines Postings hier.
Im nachhinein ja schon irgendwie lustig.
OK, hab was draus gelernt.
Schönen Abend,
NR

identified. We also have an option to extend this survey to 15,000 km. Some 1,600 km of
this survey have already been recorded. As already announced, last month, we reached
agreement with the Falkland Islands Government on a two year extension to the southern
area licence. We are also planning a 2,000 sq km 3D seismic survey which we would expect
to take place in the next twelve to eighteen months.
At the same time as we progress the analysis and interpretation of seismic data, we are
preparing for discussions with potential farminees. We have already received a number of
approaches and intend to commence a formal programme to attract new companies to join
us in our Falkland Islands project in the second half of 2005.
Over the next 12 months we will continue to assess the data that we have obtained to date
whilst carrying out further mapping and analysis. Our objective is to define about 20 drillable
prospects with a view to developing a multi-well drilling programme targeted to begin in
2007.

--------------------------------------------------


Alles klar Thomas,20.Mio. Pfund in Cash hat unser Baby,das ist allemal besser als Energulf und wir sind immer noch drauf und dran das ATH zu knacken .....

MFG

Chalifmann

Also, aktuell eher knapp 92 Mio. Außerdem bitte bestehende und künftige Optionen nicht vergessen. Nach Verwässung infolge der Finanzierungs-KE(s) würde ich mit 150-200 Mio. Aktien rechnen. 120 Mio halte ich doch für unrealistisch niedrig. Hier sollten wir sicherheitshalber 200 Mio. Shares ansetzen.

Zu Posting 580/1:

Halte ich schon von der grundsätzlichen Herangehensweise für verfehlt.

In der Konsequenz bewertest Du ein Unternehmen mit - nach eigener Schätzung - 15 Mrd. Barrel Öl und einem Nachsteuergewinn von jährlich 2,5 Mrd. € mit 120 Mio. x 44 € = 5,28 Mrd. €. Mithin ein KGV von 2,1. Weiterer Kommentar überflüssig, oder?

Wir sollten es uns nicht unnötig schwer machen bzw. mit möglichst wenigen Variablen rechnen. Schlage deshalb keine Gewinnberechnung sondern eine " Substanzbewertung" vor.

Also, wir haben folgendes, was ich grob in 3 Kategorien einordnen möchte (der Mittelwert als präferierter fett):

Schätzung Ölreserven in Mrd. Barrel:
1. 8
2. 16
3. 24

Dann sollten wir die allg. Börsen-/Übernahmebewertung je Barrel anschauen. Ich konnte hier eine Bandbreite zwischen 3 und 10 USD (bei Unocal wollen die Chinesen wohl sogar über 10 USD/Barrel zahlen - SL hat den " Chinafaktor" als erster erkannt... ) ausmachen, daher:

1. 3 USD
2. 6 USD
3. 10 USD


200 Mio. FOGL Shares und EUR/USD 1,20 unterstellt, ergäbe folgendes Bild:


8 x 3 = 24 : 1,2 = 20 : 200 = 100 €

8 x 6 = 48 : 1,2 = 40 : 200 = 200 €

8 x 9 = 72 : 1,2 = 60 : 200 = 300 €


16 x 3 = 48 : 1,2 = 40 : 200 = 200 €

16 x 6 = 96 : 1,2 = 80 : 200 = 400 €

16 x 9 = 144 : 1,2 = 120 : 200 = 600 €


24 x 3 = 72 : 1,2 = 60 : 200 = 300 €

24 x 6 = 144 : 1,2 = 120 : 200 = 600 €

24 x 9 = 216 : 1,2 = 180 : 200 = 900 €


Die Mittelwerte lauten also auf 200 über 400 bis 600 € " Substanzwert je FOGL Aktie" .

Dass der nicht über Nacht erreicht werden wird, sollte jedem klar sein! Schon allein deshalb, weil die 8-24 Mrd. Barrel auch nicht über Nacht durch Bohrungen nachgewiesen werden können. Aber werden sie das, wird der Markt sie sicherlich (je nach Stand) in der erwähnten Bandbreite kapitalisieren. Ob gefundene Ölresenen von beispielsweise 3 Mrd. Barrel nun mit 3 oder faireren 6 USD bewertet werden, hängt mit Sicherheit auch vom Reifestadium der Gesellschaft ab, d.h. ob schon gefördert wird oder nicht. Letztlich bleibts aber bei zwei paar Schuhen - Kurs ist nicht gleich Wert. Sondern bestimmt sich durch Angebot und Nachfrage. Anders ausgedrückt: solange es Verkäufer zu günstigen Preisen gibt, kann es keine höheren Preise geben.

Daher ist FOGL aus meiner Sicht auch niemals ein Verkauf. Besonders nicht im Falle der (ersten) Erfolgsmeldung. Tritt der Erfolgsfall ein wird der Kurs über Jahre (fast) nur eine Richtung kennen (sollte das Börsenleben nicht durch ne Übernahme abrupt beendet werden, wovon ich nicht ausgehe; Desire wird von den Chinesen oder Indern aufgekauft werden), denn der " wahre Wert" kann sich nur allmählich, über viele Jahre entfalten. Auf den Punkt gebracht: mit FOGL ist's wie mit nem guten Wein...

Zwar dürften die meisten von Euch schon die oben aufgemachten Rechnungen für fast unglaublich halten, so ist's für mich eigentlich ziemlich unspektakulär. So überraschen weder kolportierte 8-24 Mrd. Barrel (FOGL hat allein schon rein rechnerisch 12 Mrd. Barrel Öl, setzt man das Hoheitsgebiet der Falklandinseln - auf dem 60 Mrd. B. vermutet werden - ins Verhältnis zur Größe des Lizenzgebiets), noch sind die Börsenbewertung der Ölunternehmen bzw. deren Reserven ein Geheimnis. Eigentlich also nix neues!

Und deshalb liegt der " besondere Reiz" für mich auch nicht in der Hebung des (oben dargelegten) Substanzwertes, sondern in der Frage: sind die Bewertungen (3-9 USD/Barrel) angemessen und wo wird deren Reise hingehen. Bewertung ist die eine Sache, die andere: was wird effektiv bei rum kommen. Und letztlich bei uns in Form von Dividenden (" der jährliche Scheck" ) ankommen ..."

Na, alles klar !!??

MFG

Chalifmann

Hallo Nussriegel,

Warum meldest du dich nicht mehr,hast du FOGL in Deutschland oder in London gekauft ?

MFG

Chalifmann

und für reine selbstzweck-postings hatte ich zu wenig zeit
hab meine FOGL in Deutschland gekauft
Grüße,
Nussriegel

Hallo Nussriegel (lass mal wieder was von dir hören),es gibt NEWS:

Friday 9th September 2005


Falkland Oil and Gas Limited
(" FOGL" or " the company" )


Extension of 2D Seismic Programme


FOGL announces that it has taken up the option, as reported at its AGM on 20
July, to extend the 8,000 km 2D survey, which commenced in June this year, by a
further 7,000 km. The GSI Admiral has been commissioned by the company to
undertake this programme.


As stated in July, it is FOGL's objective to define 20 drillable prospects from
the numerous leads that had been identified from the 9,450 km 2D seismic survey.
The aim of the current 15,000 km programme is to work up the 50 key leads
that have been previously identified and identify drillable prospects. To
achieve this outcome most of the new lines will be closely spaced (approximately
2km apart) to enable detailed mapping of prospects. The 15,000 km survey is
split approximately 6,000km over the 2002 Licence area and 9,000 over the 2004
Licence area.


To date 4,560 km of this survey has been recorded and the whole survey is
expected to be completed late this year or early 2006. The company anticipates
that the results of the survey will be processed in the first half of 2006.
Once the 15,000 km extension survey has been completed FOGL intends to carry out
a 3D seismic programme in the areas of highest prospectivity.


John Armstrong, Executive Chairman of FOGL, said:


" We have undertaken a vast amount of seismic surveying since our IPO and results
continue to be encouraging. This 2D seismic contract extension will further
enable us to define the full potential of our assets and together with the
planned 3D survey will enable us to identify our 20 drillable prospects."


Enquiries:


FOGL
John Armstrong, Executive Chairman 020 7490 4111
David Hudd, Deputy Chairman 020 7490 4111

College Hill 020 7457 2020
Ben Brewerton / Nick Elwes


www.fogl.co.uk  

schade, dass hier scheinbar keine Diskussion in Gang kommen will.
Hat immerhin 100% hingelegt seit meiner Threaderöffnung Anfang 2005.

Schade, hab heut morgen noch über ne kleine Aufstockung meiner Posi nachgedacht. Nu is leider zu spät.
Ma schaun, ob da noch mal günstig dran zu kommen ist.
und hier ist immer noch keiner interessiert?
*verständnislosdenkopfschüttel*

Tim Bushell, chief executive of Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL), one of the explorers in the South basin, commented that it was looking increasingly likely that the north and south would have separate drilling campaigns.

FOGL and its partner BHP Billiton will shortly be submitting drill permit applications and remain on target to drill probably late next year, subject to securing their own rig. As Mr Bushell observes: "It could be an exciting year for the Falklands."

www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Companies/...o-become-reality.jsp

Ich habe diese aktie jetzt in mein depot genommen und erwarte 500% gewinn oder einen total verlust. Das ist das risiko/gewinn verhältnis wert. Dafür habe ich das Lotto spielen aber eingestellt für die nächste 12 monate und das geld für den einkauf verwendet. Mal sehen was mehr bringt, die gewinnchancen sind hier aber wesentlich besser.

hallo, beobachte die Aktie schon seit .90 cent, ist wirklich ne Chance zu deinem Lottospiel. Aber mal ganz im Ernst. Für wieviel Euro spielst du denn Lotto in der Woche. Ich denke bei 250€ abzüglich Gebühren wirst du nicht mehr viel bekommen...

Grüße
EOGO

es geht hier um die warscheinlichkeit der möglichen gewinn und nicht um lotto spielen.

schon ok und die könnte durchaus da sein. Da muss ich Dir beides mal recht geben.