JCPenney - Handelsriese auf 30 Jahrestief

J.C. Penney's Guidance: Where's The Skepticism?

seekingalpha.com/article/...-the-skepticism?source=google_news

Let me begin by saying that I have no position in any J.C. Penney securities (JCP), I have never had any, and I don't intend to initiate any. That said, I have watched with great interest the recent developments of the company and I am somewhat surprised by the euphoria of some investors over the most recent guidance. Some bulls are now even implying that the bear case is effectively dead and J.C. Penney is out of the woods completely.

More specifically, what's really surprised me is the lack of skepticism by many investors surrounding this recent guidance. This is particularly true when considering that J.C. Penney's management has a strong incentive to put a positive light on the their operations, given on-going solvency concerns and the resultant need to project financial strength -- in order to support vendor contract negotiations, other potential financing activities, and the security prices (both debt and equity) of the company.

So why wouldn't management be aggressive on guidance and why should investors assume the best with regard to some of the vague terms and the select metrics that were used with the guidance? A strategy to under (or conservatively) promise and over deliver certainly wouldn't seem to be desirable for company in J.C. Penney's position. Furthermore, companies in potential distress, like J.C. Penney, can tend to be specific about what's positive and omit or be vague about what's negative -- and there were plenty of omissions and lots of vagueness in J.C. Penney's guidance. So, let's take a closer look at what was said and what wasn't said.

Comparable store sales: expected to increase mid-single digits;

As previously discussed, investors should consider that J.C. Penney's management has a general incentive to be optimistic with this guidance. In addition, it should be noted that they appear to be cherry-picking the metric that is likely to look most favorable (i.e. providing guidance for same store growth and not actual revenue growth).

Store closures, as have been announced, will drive some existing J.C. Penney customers from the closed stores to those that remain -- benefiting same store growth at the expense of overall revenue growth. What's most important over the long term is overall revenue growth, for which no guidance was provided. Importantly, the trajectory for overall revenue growth should not be confused with the guidance made for same store revenue growth over the next year

Spaetschicht: Wichtig war die Kenntnis über den möglichen Rohgewinn im ersten Quartal 2014, der mit 3 -5% seitens JCP angesteuert wird und damit die schlechten Januar - und Dezemberwerte vergessen lässt, denn nur der November - und der mit 10% - hatte überzeugt. Man sieht also, JCP bäumt sich auf, wurde aber zuvor vollständig verrissen. Dieselben Leute, ich habe das genau überwacht, die das Papier in die Tiefe schickten, wollen nun mehr sehen. Da kann ein kleiner Investor, wie FD2012, wohl mitschwimmen, denn unter 7,75/825 US-$ gebe ich einen Teil der Papiere nicht ab. Es sollte dann nach meiner Berechnung vorerst reichen, hier in dt. vernachlässigte Werte aus dem DAX/MDAX zu investieren, bei einem Rückbehalt von weiteren Stücken in JCP, da längerfristig Kurse von 10,00 $, wie erwähnt, gar nicht utopisch sind und sehr langfristig noch wesentlich mehr. Morgen, Veilchendienstag, werden auch die Mitarbeiter aus den Banken/Sparkassen wieder da sein, die mir dringende Fragen beantworten müssen. Man hat ja die Qual der Wahl, nur nicht im Verkauf. Und die Analysten fischen -wie immer- im Trüben, so auch MS.    .... Bis bald.  

FD : der steinerne Boden - Die 8%Bombe - Der "Gegenläufer"

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP) May Have Finally Hit Rock Bottom

www.valuewalk.com/2014/03/j-c-penney-company-inc-rock-bottom/



Seeing confidence in J.C. Penney

Analyst Bernard Sosnick said he has new confidence in J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) after management guided for a 3% to 5% gain in same-store sales for the current quarter. He notes that the guidance came after one month of the quarter was mostly over, which means that management seems confident they will be able to see that gain.

The analyst notes that J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) also now has a better assortment of jewelry and that reception of the re-launch of intimate apparel brand Ambrielle has been positive. He said this likely contributed to positive outcomes for Valentine"s Day shopping.

Private brands play a role in J.C. Penney"s success

Ambrielle is a private brand, which is important for J.C. Penney because before Ron Johnson became CEO, private brands contributed more than half of the company"s sales. They dropped to 30% after he took over the reins, but Sosnick believes that J.C. Penney"s merchandise assortment is "getting back to normal" and that "extreme clearance markdowns should be a thing of the past."



The analyst believes that J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) will be able to run more effective promotions now that it is bringing private brands back. However, he does expect business to be choppy, showing weakness when there aren"t any promotions and being stronger on major shopping dates.

J.C. Penney"s home department starts to recover

He also suggests that the 45% increase in online sales in January could signal stronger direct business sales and stores. He noted that home products made up more than half of the company"s online sales and that as assortments of home products improved online, sales surged as well.

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) will finish its home department makeover in about a week, getting back to the types of products its customers typically respond to. He notes that last year, the retail chain"s home departments were mostly shut down to be reconfigured. As a result, comparing against last year should bring "a sales pop," making the 3% to 5% target seem attainable.

Challenges remain for J.C. Penney

Sosnick notes that although gross margins are approaching the level they were at in 2011, there are some other issues to be concerned about. He said expenses "should lever" while the company"s sales increase. However, he also notes that sales per square foot are "still at a distress level" at around $100. He also notes that although traffic in stores is improving, it isn"t positive yet.

In spite of these challenges though, he thinks the worst is over and has reiterated his Buy rating on J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP).

After Hours: 8.07 +0.11 (1.38%)
Mar 3, 4:29PM EST

seekingalpha.com/news/...-j-c-penney-outlook-lifted-at-s-and-p

Affirming its CCC+ rating on J.C. Penney (JCP), S&P lifts its outlook on the company from negative to stable. "The outlook revision reflects our view that performance has begun to stabilize ... However, in our view, the capital structure is unsustainable, but the company does not have any meaningful maturities over the next 12 months."The stable outlook reflects S&P's view that liquidity will be "adequate" over the next year and sources of cash will exceed use by at least 1.2x.Shares +1.5% AH following a 9.3% rise in the regular session.

Spaetschicht: Erneut danke für Deine Infos, die wirklich zielführend sind. Habe gestern die TV-Sendung "Karneval in Köln" kurz vor 22.00 Uhr verlassen und auf CNBC umgeschaltet. Alleine in den letzten Minuten wurden 7,95 $ mit .. k, sodann 7,95 mit 23 k und zuletzt 7,97 mit 43 k, festgestellt; einfach fantastisch. Nachbörslich waren's dann (... lese das hier im Forum/ hatte schon abgeschaltet!) mehr als 8,00 $. Das Votum stabil, das Du jetzt mit Deinen Infos lostritts, bestärkt mich in der Annahme, dass der Kursrückstand auf 2014 zumindest "ausgebügelt" wird. Du siehs't also, auch kleine Investoren werden so "hochgespült", gilt jedenfalls für FD2012. Neue Investments, so in BRA *), locken, aber zunächst bleibe ich noch in JCP mit einem größeren Anteil investiert. Frage: Wer kauft jetzt noch? Da müsste m.E. jetzt eine grundsätzlich andere Beurteilung stattfinden, oder?  Dann gilt: "Kurse laufen lassen".   ..... Bis bald.

*) paioneer weiß schon Bescheid  

finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jcp

seekingalpha.com/article/...-to-soar?source=kizur_seekingalpha

OXOX und Spaetschicht und pioneer:  Das Interview mit Steve Sadove, früher CEO von SAKS, jetzt Vorstandsmitglied bei J.C. Penney & Co. Inc., war sehenswert, wie die ganze Darstellung des Einzelhandels-und Versandgeschäfts von JCP. ... Wichtig auch, der Ausblick von Standard & Poor's, hinsichtlich der Kreditlinien, weil man jetzt eine positive Bewertung hierzu abgab. Zum Auftakt gleich ein Anstieg des Kurses von 0,56 $ auf 8,52 $, dann teils bis 8,65 $ und zuletzt, so gg. 16.49, = 8,54$, mehrmals und dann 8,46$. Wenn's heute in diesem Bereich bleibt, können wir sehr zufrieden sein, da in den letzten Tagen ein Anstieg von mehr als 3,00 $ eintrat, gut 55-60%, wovon auch FD2012 profitieren konnte. ... Bleibe dabei, "Gewinne sollte man laufen lassen", insbesondere nach dieser positiven Vorstellung auf dem TV-Sender CNBC. Wir scheren jetzt wieder in den Jahresanfang 2014 ein, und, wie man sieht, ist der dramatische Kurseinbruch in 2014 wohl Vergangenheit, oder?  Bis 17.00 Uhr MEZ hatte ich 14 größere Käufe ausmachen können; das sagt wohl alles. Sehe mir das heute nochmals gg. 21.30-22.00 Uhr an,
also, ... Bis bald.

www.valuewalk.com/2014/03/j-c-penney-company-inc-jcp-debt/

Üs... google

translate.google.de/...ney-company-inc-jcp-debt%2F&act=url

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) has released optimistic guidance for 2014, but not everyone thinks that the retailer’s gross margin targets are realistic, and it may have to make painful cutbacks if it’s going to keep liquidity flat for 2014.

At a minimum, J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) needs to cover $380 million in interest expenses and $250 million in capex, a total of $630 million, if it’s going to break even on free cash flow this year, but Citi analysts Jenna Giannelli and Lauren Smith say that would require gross margins of 38% or better, compared to less than 30% last year, in addition to hitting same-store sales growth targets to cover those costs solely with EBITDA.

SG&A, capex costs are already at recent lows

That’s not impossible, but it means planning for a banner year instead of gradual improvement (let alone more setbacks). The other option would be to make additional cuts to selling, general, and admin expenses (SG&A) or to capex, but both figures are already quite low.

“We are concerned that any further SG&A cuts could become detrimental to the business,” write Giannelli and Smith. “We acknowledge and commend the efforts to cut nearly $1bn in costs in a short time frame, but worry for the ability to keep marketing plentiful and fresh and in store customer experience/satisfaction high.”



SG&A is up as a percentage of sales, 34% in 2013 compared to its own 27% average, but has been falling steadily on a per-store basis for the last decade, meaning that it is deploying its SG&A expenses more widely and getting worse results back. J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) will close 33 underperforming stores by this May to help alleviate the problem, but it could still be difficult to take SG&A much lower.

Similarly, J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) is already forecasting its lowest level of capex per store since 2001. The current low water mark of $290,000 per store corresponds to $310 million in capex, but J.C. Penney has forecast just $250 million. It’s already well below its long-term average, $580,000 per store, and cutting any more threatens to undermine J.C. Penney’s efforts.

J.C. Penney should be safe for the next few years

Giannelli and Smith don’t think that J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) is in any immediate danger, and they increase their rating on the company’s 2015 and 2016 maturities from Sell to Neutral because of improved liquidity, but they remain pessimistic in the long-term rating any maturities from 2017 as Sell and rating J.C. Penney stock as Underweight.

pebo1: Auf die Übertreibungen in der letzten Zeit, folgte nun mal ein kleiner Dämpfer. Dennoch die JCP - Papiere sind immer noch günstig zu haben und dürften - spätestens mit den Maiberichten -  auf 9,50 bis 10,50 $ ansteigen. Diese Zeit (Mai/Juni) lässt sich trefflich überbrücken, denn wir befinden uns an den Börsen - insbesondere hier in DE  - in einem Konsolidierungsprozess, was in den USA übrigens auch für Bankaktien gilt. Offenbar macht der Einzelhandel jetzt Furore, wenngleich Fehlentwicklungen hart abgestraft werden, wie bei Radio Shack, die gleich 1/5 Ihrer Filialen schließen, von immerhin 5.000. JCP hat hier lediglich eine Auswahl unter Kostengesichtspunkten gewählt - und deren Quote, bei 33 Schließungen, wie erneut zu lesen (Spaetschicht), sie beträgt rund 3%. Wichtig, die geringen Zinsen helfen dem Handel. Wäre dies anders, müsste man große Sorgen haben.  ... Bis bald  

oder holt sie nur selbige, unsere liebe jcp? das ist hier die gretchenfrage. auf diesem niveau könnte man durchaus über eine gewinnmitnahme nachdenken, hofft jedoch, dass sie nach reiflicher überlegung, doch noch weitermarschiert und diesen weg würde ich sie selbstverständlich gern weiter begleiten. tja, schwierige entscheidung, zumal man nicht weiss, was die käuferseite vorhat. halten die oder reicht ihnen der schnelle und renditebringende anstieg der letzten tage?  

www.schaeffersresearch.com/marketcenters/...?ID=120052#refresh

ich muss jetzt langsam mal entscheiden, wie long ich long bleiben will. :-D

da hat paioneer recht. so ne gewinnmitnahme wär was feines. aber nich, dass es mich dann wieder verarscht... dat wäre ja ma wieder typisch.

-.-

ich muss noch bischen warten bis bei mir gewinne entstehen .... bin noch 4% im minus ;)
aber schon beim einstig damals in november dezember war ich auch turnaround eingestellt somit loooong , dass müsst ihr euch jetzt einfach überlegen turnaround oder guter zock und ab zur nächsten aktie....

Entscheidungshilfe....
seekingalpha.com/article/...h-on-j-c-penney?source=google_news

hola die waldfee, kurzes päuschen und weiter geht's. gut so...

2 millionen shares in 10 minuten

erst gestern die null nummer . Heute auch erst mau, dann die Bullische Attacke und alles was neu short ist könnte Panik bekommen  

Von Ihnen kommen bereits 7 der letzten 20 (oder weniger) positiven Bewertungen für OXOX.

und gekauft . Bleibe mit meinen ertradeten Shares long und Euch weiter erhalten

Viele Grüße Spaet

ich denke ende Februar waren es mehr als 130 mio short ...alleine durch das covern schiessen wir über 10$

      Date§        Short Interest
 2/14/2014128,515,677§


Read more: www.nasdaq.com/symbol/jcp/short-interest#ixzz2vCp1SplK

Der allgemeine Tagesablauf heute

seekingalpha.com/article/...-betting-on-j-c-penneys-stagnation

Betting On J.C. Penney's Stagnation
Mar. 5, 2014 4:25 PM ET  |  About: JCP
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary

JCP is still a risky stock; a long position doesn't make sense at $8 or $9.
Stagnation is a real possibility as the company shores up its cash reserves and plays it safe.
Buying the bonds and shorting the stock in the right proportion will allow you to take advantage of the high coupon yield without significant exposure.
Over the last few months, the future of J.C. Penney (JCP) has been the subject of hot debate and endless commentary, with almost every possible scenario being played out to its logical conclusion. Since the Q4 earning report last week announced earnings $.12 above analysts' expectations, the bears have been quite subdued and the previously incessant cries of bankruptcy are all but gone. And while the Market apparently thinks that JCP is worth 50% more than it was a month ago, caution should not be abandoned. There are still a few ways in which JCP could fail the bulls.

First, I don't believe that the threat of bankruptcy or dilution is totally off the table. Optimistic guidance supplied by management notwithstanding, JCP is still close to the edge and will dry up a substantial amount of its liquidity buying up inventory going into the 3rd Quarter holiday season. The company's failure to perform at any time during the next year (especially during Q3) could lead it to the edge of the same cliff from which it just now backing away. Furthermore, if management sees trouble on the horizon, they may try to leverage the higher stock price into a more favorable dilution scenario. While dilution at $5/ share is devastating, dilution at $9/share is not much better.

The second way that JCP could disappoint is by conservatively building up its cash reserves, slowly strengthening its financial position and then failing to innovate or grow. In short stagnating. As has been pointed out many times by SA contributors of all stripes, and other commentators, retail is not an easy market to be in these days, and by all accounts, the competitive atmosphere is only getting more intense. JCP, and anyone in the retail landscape, is at a critical point in their existence, where they will either take bold innovate steps toward redefining their role in the marketplace, or be destined to become cash cows with dwindling margins and diminishing revenues. The main traits that will separate the growth companies in the retail space from the laggards are vision and resources.