Dow Jones: Bitte einen Schritt zuruecktreten

Pop and Drop

Dow pops at Open, but drops to the Close.

The Dow got a huge pop at the Open on news of Saddam Hussein's capture, which sent the index into a sharp advance early in the session. However, the Dow was not able to sustain such gains, which ultimately led to a slow and steady decline the remainder of the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart.

Today's reversal could spill over into tomorrow's market, especially if the lower boundary of the tight channel is broken at 9,970. The channel, seen in the 60 Minute Chart, has formed over the course of the prior month of trading. A downside break from this channel will likely spark a sharp move lower.

Otherwise, look for the Dow to continue trending higher within the channel boundaries. An upside break through 10,100 will make for another wave higher within the channel's boundaries.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line across the highs of the late-day decline, seen 1 Minute Chart. An upside break of the line at 10,045 will make for strength at the Open. Otherwise, look for a continued push lower beneath the line.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market, as none of our entry levels were triggered. We will watch 10,100 up, and 10,000 down tomorrow, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each popped and dropped alongside the Dow today, making for slow and steady declines across the board. Further weakness could spill over to tomorrow's market, given the exhaustion gap now formed. *

Summary

The Dow pushed higher at Open, but was not able to hold on to the day's big gains. The result was a day-long decline, which could continue if the lower boundary of the channel is broken at 9,970 tomorrow. Watch the channel boundaries closely tomorrow.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading..

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst fochoa@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team