Zurück
Die News über den Todesfall ist völlig überbewertet. Das Unternehmen hat immer noch enormes Wachstumspotenzial:
seekingalpha.com/article/...e=email_rt_article_title&ifp=0
seekingalpha.com/article/...e=email_rt_article_title&ifp=0
Anzeige
Meldung des Tages: Breaking News: Übernahme von Weltraum-Technologie ins Portfolio?!
Die Bodenbildung scheint abgeschlossen zu sein.
Beiträge:
154
Zugriffe: 65.960 / Heute: 17
Zugriffe: 65.960 / Heute: 17
|
Werbung
Entdecke die beliebtesten ETFs von SPDR
seekingalpha.com/article/...mail_rt_article_readmore&ifp=0
was ist denn da heut los? wo kommt der steile Anstieg her?
Lawsuits and Liabilities
First to address the gorilla in the room, the claim by many activists that Monster's beverages played integral roles in the deaths of six people who had consumed beverages the company produces. While there is no disputing that there is a common factor among them all, it is important to note that in at least one of the six cases, the deceased had previous medical conditions that were at play, not just the consumption of Monster energy drinks. No details are available with regards to the other five incidences citing the involvement of Monster beverages. The company does protect itself to the extent of placing disclaimers on the side of the can to specifically say that no one should consume more than three in a day, and that the drink is not intended for use by children or those sensitive to caffeine.
To set the investor's mind at ease for the near term, solace can be found in the rate at which wrongful death lawsuits have progressed against tobacco companies. Even with the plethora of data gathered against the tobacco industry, plaintiffs still struggle to mount successful offensives. With only the recent explosion in the popularity of energy drinks, the relative infancy of the industry doesn't lend itself well to determining any cause and effect correlation.
It would be impossible to attack caffeine levels in Monster beverages without also attacking other major beverage manufacturers. What may be more likely is regulation from the FDA setting limits on the caffeine density of beverages. Similar limits are already in place for soft drink manufacturers, with limits of 71mg of caffeine per 12 ounces. With 5 Hour Energy being named as a potential link to 13 deaths (New York Times), and having a 66mg/ounce caffeine ratio, the FDA may look to "appease" those looking for more to be done on their part. The FDA continues to explore and evaluate a variety of ingredients, including caffeine, in energy drinks; however, to this point many are deemed as "Generally Recognized as Safe."
Industry Leader and Growing
According to BevNET, Monster Beverage controls about 37% of the energy drink market share, trailing only behind Red Bull (42% market share) and well ahead of Rockstar whose market share comes in at a paltry 11%. What do these top three companies have in common? Neither of the three is in any way associated with either of the "beverage industry titans," Coca-Cola or Pepsi. Instead these two have decided to duke it out with each other using their own in-house brands, Pepsi with its AMP energy drink (4% market share) and Coca-Cola with Full Throttle (0.5%).
Despite trailing by 5% in market share, Monster has recently picked up the pace, with Nielsen ratings saying that during the most recent 13 week window, ending October 20th, Monster energy drink sales increased 19.5% versus Red Bull's 16.6%. AMP sales swung to a 9.8% decline while Full Throttle Sales bounded higher by 9.1%. Interesting to note is the growth in "Coffee plus Energy" drink sales. Monster's "Java Monster" experienced sales growth of 23.3% year over year in the third quarter of 2012. This was more than 3% faster than the 2011 year over year growth rate. With growth accelerating, this may cushion the companies' margins as coffee prices have decreased significantly from 2011.
While seeing sturdy double digit growth in sales on the home front, Monster has seen sales explode internationally as it pursues an effort to expand its distribution reach. Year-over-year results showed Monster's Mexican distributor reporting sales 46% higher. Excluding the effects of a strengthening U.S. dollar, sales in Europe, Asia and Africa combined were 65.4% higher versus the same quarter in 2011.
To continue its organic growth, the company launched its products in the Philippines and Turkey and expanded its product base in Ukraine. The company plans to initiate product launches in Chile, Peru and Singapore during the fourth quarter and Argentina and Taiwan in 2013. Along with these planned launches, the company stated in its third quarter conference call that while it had taken a few months longer than initially scheduled, a launch into South Korea is also imminent. These expansions will be coming on the heels of second quarter expansions into Japan, Macau, Hong Kong and Slovenia.
Outside of South Korea, Monster has experienced only a few hiccups during its global expansion. One example being in Japan where distributors hold stricter requirements for the shipments they are willing to receive. The occasional hiccup is something the company is certainly willing to deal with, especially with sales in Japan continuing to exceed the company's expectations.
Further details about Monster's global expansion can be found in its most recent conference call transcript here, as well as the company's investor relations webpage.
Acquisition Rumors
During MNST's 63% run up in value about a year ago (referenced at the very beginning), rumors flew in every direction about Monster being a potential takeover target with Coca-Cola's name being brought up (Wall Street Journal) on several occasions along with Anheuser-Busch (BUD). These rumors very well could have been the reason the stock ran to its $80+ all time high. Albeit this was short lived as once everyone began to accept the fact that the rumors were just that, the stock promptly retreated. While I am not usually one to poke the bear, at the current market price, ~$45/share, a takeover of Monster is not a completely absurd proposal.
Will it occur within the next 3 to 6 months? Highly unlikely. Any suitor that is going to consider paying north of $9 billion for this company is going to wait until after the FDA, and congress, make their decisions about the fate of the energy drink market.
Final Say
For the trailing twelve months, Monster has recorded over $2 billion in sales. It continues to expand its global distributions and has done so while continually growing sales, and at times at a rate faster than the market share leader (Red Bull). Fully anticipating a clean bill of health from this whole lawsuit/FDA inquisition fiasco, I expect Monster shares to rally from the current price level to $55 where the company would be valued at slightly less than $9.5 billion (4.25x sales).
Analysts covering the stock believe the company will see revenues increase 23.8% over the next year and earnings growing at 19% over the next five years (FinViz). Presuming, conservatively, that the company can only grow revenues at 19% this year, and if that rate of growth were to decrease 3% each year for the next 5 years, the present value of future cash flows comes to approximately $55.60, further supporting my price target of $55/share.
First to address the gorilla in the room, the claim by many activists that Monster's beverages played integral roles in the deaths of six people who had consumed beverages the company produces. While there is no disputing that there is a common factor among them all, it is important to note that in at least one of the six cases, the deceased had previous medical conditions that were at play, not just the consumption of Monster energy drinks. No details are available with regards to the other five incidences citing the involvement of Monster beverages. The company does protect itself to the extent of placing disclaimers on the side of the can to specifically say that no one should consume more than three in a day, and that the drink is not intended for use by children or those sensitive to caffeine.
To set the investor's mind at ease for the near term, solace can be found in the rate at which wrongful death lawsuits have progressed against tobacco companies. Even with the plethora of data gathered against the tobacco industry, plaintiffs still struggle to mount successful offensives. With only the recent explosion in the popularity of energy drinks, the relative infancy of the industry doesn't lend itself well to determining any cause and effect correlation.
It would be impossible to attack caffeine levels in Monster beverages without also attacking other major beverage manufacturers. What may be more likely is regulation from the FDA setting limits on the caffeine density of beverages. Similar limits are already in place for soft drink manufacturers, with limits of 71mg of caffeine per 12 ounces. With 5 Hour Energy being named as a potential link to 13 deaths (New York Times), and having a 66mg/ounce caffeine ratio, the FDA may look to "appease" those looking for more to be done on their part. The FDA continues to explore and evaluate a variety of ingredients, including caffeine, in energy drinks; however, to this point many are deemed as "Generally Recognized as Safe."
Industry Leader and Growing
According to BevNET, Monster Beverage controls about 37% of the energy drink market share, trailing only behind Red Bull (42% market share) and well ahead of Rockstar whose market share comes in at a paltry 11%. What do these top three companies have in common? Neither of the three is in any way associated with either of the "beverage industry titans," Coca-Cola or Pepsi. Instead these two have decided to duke it out with each other using their own in-house brands, Pepsi with its AMP energy drink (4% market share) and Coca-Cola with Full Throttle (0.5%).
Despite trailing by 5% in market share, Monster has recently picked up the pace, with Nielsen ratings saying that during the most recent 13 week window, ending October 20th, Monster energy drink sales increased 19.5% versus Red Bull's 16.6%. AMP sales swung to a 9.8% decline while Full Throttle Sales bounded higher by 9.1%. Interesting to note is the growth in "Coffee plus Energy" drink sales. Monster's "Java Monster" experienced sales growth of 23.3% year over year in the third quarter of 2012. This was more than 3% faster than the 2011 year over year growth rate. With growth accelerating, this may cushion the companies' margins as coffee prices have decreased significantly from 2011.
While seeing sturdy double digit growth in sales on the home front, Monster has seen sales explode internationally as it pursues an effort to expand its distribution reach. Year-over-year results showed Monster's Mexican distributor reporting sales 46% higher. Excluding the effects of a strengthening U.S. dollar, sales in Europe, Asia and Africa combined were 65.4% higher versus the same quarter in 2011.
To continue its organic growth, the company launched its products in the Philippines and Turkey and expanded its product base in Ukraine. The company plans to initiate product launches in Chile, Peru and Singapore during the fourth quarter and Argentina and Taiwan in 2013. Along with these planned launches, the company stated in its third quarter conference call that while it had taken a few months longer than initially scheduled, a launch into South Korea is also imminent. These expansions will be coming on the heels of second quarter expansions into Japan, Macau, Hong Kong and Slovenia.
Outside of South Korea, Monster has experienced only a few hiccups during its global expansion. One example being in Japan where distributors hold stricter requirements for the shipments they are willing to receive. The occasional hiccup is something the company is certainly willing to deal with, especially with sales in Japan continuing to exceed the company's expectations.
Further details about Monster's global expansion can be found in its most recent conference call transcript here, as well as the company's investor relations webpage.
Acquisition Rumors
During MNST's 63% run up in value about a year ago (referenced at the very beginning), rumors flew in every direction about Monster being a potential takeover target with Coca-Cola's name being brought up (Wall Street Journal) on several occasions along with Anheuser-Busch (BUD). These rumors very well could have been the reason the stock ran to its $80+ all time high. Albeit this was short lived as once everyone began to accept the fact that the rumors were just that, the stock promptly retreated. While I am not usually one to poke the bear, at the current market price, ~$45/share, a takeover of Monster is not a completely absurd proposal.
Will it occur within the next 3 to 6 months? Highly unlikely. Any suitor that is going to consider paying north of $9 billion for this company is going to wait until after the FDA, and congress, make their decisions about the fate of the energy drink market.
Final Say
For the trailing twelve months, Monster has recorded over $2 billion in sales. It continues to expand its global distributions and has done so while continually growing sales, and at times at a rate faster than the market share leader (Red Bull). Fully anticipating a clean bill of health from this whole lawsuit/FDA inquisition fiasco, I expect Monster shares to rally from the current price level to $55 where the company would be valued at slightly less than $9.5 billion (4.25x sales).
Analysts covering the stock believe the company will see revenues increase 23.8% over the next year and earnings growing at 19% over the next five years (FinViz). Presuming, conservatively, that the company can only grow revenues at 19% this year, and if that rate of growth were to decrease 3% each year for the next 5 years, the present value of future cash flows comes to approximately $55.60, further supporting my price target of $55/share.
danke für die ausführlichen Infos. Bin mal gespannt was mit der Aktie in den nächsten Monaten passiert. Ich bleib weiterhin investiert. Cheers.
Langsam nervt diese MonsterAktie. Weiß jemand wann Zahlen kommen.
macht es MNST derzeit nicht leicht. Die Q3 /2012 Zahlen lagen zwar unter dem vermuteten Ergebnis, allerdings waren sie dennoch sehr sehr solide. Durch die oben genannte Kritik an Energy Getränken generell, hat MNST stark einstecken müssen.
Der Vorteil ist jetzt allerdings, dass die Erwartungen gegenüber dem Q4 2012 Bericht gesunken sind. Falls MNST die Erwartungen also übertreffen kann, wird es einen Schub nach oben gehen. Langfristig sehe ich nach wie vor großes Potenzial in MNST. Die Lage muss sich nur ein wenig beruhigen...was allerdings noch paar Monate dauern kann. Die Q4 2012 werden am 21.02. bekanntgegeben.
capitalladders.com/report/...r-beverage-corp-losing-sentiment
Der Vorteil ist jetzt allerdings, dass die Erwartungen gegenüber dem Q4 2012 Bericht gesunken sind. Falls MNST die Erwartungen also übertreffen kann, wird es einen Schub nach oben gehen. Langfristig sehe ich nach wie vor großes Potenzial in MNST. Die Lage muss sich nur ein wenig beruhigen...was allerdings noch paar Monate dauern kann. Die Q4 2012 werden am 21.02. bekanntgegeben.
capitalladders.com/report/...r-beverage-corp-losing-sentiment
Danke für deine Info und Einschätzung. Sitzen und Warten macht mehr Spass mit schwarzen Zahlen im Depot. Bin im Moment hin und vergreisen, aussitzen oder verbilligen. Zum verbilligen fehlt mir aber irgendwie das Vertrauen.
hier ist auch echt schwer einzuschätzen... muss jeder selbst entscheiden, Ich hab nachgekauft auf long :)
wollte euch die Information nicht vorenthalten. Nicht dass Ihr euch wundert, wenn am 21.02. der Drops schon gelutscht ist ^^
weiß jemand wo der starke Anstieg diese Woche herkommt?
überlege mir hier komplett zu verkaufen...KGV ist ziemlich hoch, vom Wachstum merke ich nicht mehr so viel und der Kurs wäre ok...alao über meinem EK..
Wachstum ist sehr gut im Vergleich zu jedem anderen US Getränkehersteller. Das derzeitige Problem ist, dass die Engergy Branche in den USA eventuell stärker kontrolliert wird. Z.B. Energy Drinks erst ab 18 Jahren etc. Aus diesem Grund verhält sich der Markt verhalten gegenüber der MNST Aktie. Wichtig ist, dass MNST noch ein relativ junges Unternehmen ist und sich global extrem schnell ausbreitet. Hier hat das Unternehmen noch großes Potenzial, was langfristig für einen Anstieg bis mindestens 70USD führen sollte. Ich hoffe zudem auf eine Entspannung auf dem Energy US Markt.
Es wurde wieder Aktienrückkauf im Wert vom $200 Mio. genehmigt.
ich lasse hier jetzt entspannt meine Gewinne laufen und ziehe immer mal wieder meinen Stop nach. Funktioniert hoffentlich noch eine Weile.
doch immer besser aus. Solide Zahlen und gutes Wachstum. I stay long!
Hier ein guter Artikel:
seekingalpha.com/article/...-all?source=email_rt_article_title
Hier ein guter Artikel:
seekingalpha.com/article/...-all?source=email_rt_article_title
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-08/...distributor-payments.html
Schlechte Zahlen und schlechte Publicity führen leider zwangsläufig zu schlechter Kursentwicklung.
Aber ich bin nach wie vor überzeugt, dass Monster in the long run, Red Bull den Rang ablaufen könnte! Der Kurs sollte sich also wieder erholen, was vor allem dann passieren wird, wenn man die Gesundheitsdebatte vom Tisch bringt!
aber das kann passieren bei schlechten Zahlen Zahlen. Ich denke aber es ist eine Übertreibung nach unten und deshalb versuche ich jetzt zu kaufen. Hoffe das das klappt, der Handel ist ja heute recht dünn. Meine Order steht jedefalls.
Den letzten Einbruch in der Größenordnung gab es hier als das Gerücht umging es wäre jemand an den Monster Drinks gestorben...habe dann in Panik mit Verlust verkauft und kurze Zeit später hatte sich der Kurs dann wieder erholt.
Klar, diesmal ist der Grund ein anderer, aber ich denke die Aktie wird sich wieder erholen, da die schlechten Zahlen auch durch die ganze Panikmache und Gesundheitsapostel entstanden sind.
Monster wird sich sicher nicht mehr vervielfachen, aber ein schönes Wachstum und einen auf lange Sicht steigenden Kurs, das traue ich ihr auf jeden Fall zu.
So und jetzt erstmal ein Monster Khaos zu meinem Schoko-Croissant -> Gruß an die Gesundheitsapostel ;))
Zahlen sind gar nicht so schlecht. Eine Übertreibung des Marktes. Die Margins für jede verkaufte Monster E. Dose sind international gesehen geringer (um ca. 10%), als in den USA. Nichtsdestotrotz, ist Monster in Europa, Asien und Südamerika noch am Anfang der Expansion (man Vergleiche die Auswahl in den USA mit z.B. Deutschland). Dadurch sind die Kosten für die Distributor ebenfalls höher, da das MNST Netzwerk ausserhalb der USA noch nicht optimal ausgebaut ist. Hatte sowas schon mal vor den Zahlen gelesen (bei seeking alpha/link nicht parat), dass es allerdings zu so einem Absturz kommt hätte ich nicht gedacht. Insgesamt gute Bilanz, solides Wachstum ich bin positiv gestimmt für die nächsten 24 Monate!
REHAB THE BEAST :-)
REHAB THE BEAST :-)
Ich wusste dass es so kommt aber habe keine Aktien bekommen!! so ein Schei..
Hatte eine Order zu 38€ drin, der letzte Handel davor war sogar nur bei 37,2€ aber dann ging nichts mehr und jetzt sind wir wieder bei über 40, genau das was ich eigentlich mitnehmen wollte.
Könnte mich so aufregen...moment mal, ich tu es ja schon... forum-media.finanzen.net/forum/smiley/smiley-undecided.gif" style="max-width:560px" />
So ganz scheint mir die Erholung noch nicht abgeschlossen zu sein, wenngleich sich der Kurs schon wieder ganz gut erfangen hat.
Ich gehe jetzt mal von einem zarten Anstieg bis 42 oder 43 EUR aus, sofern nicht irgendeine Hiobsbotschaft kommt.
Sollte aber die Gesundheitsrisikodebatte beigelegt werden, was dringend notwendig wäre, weil in Starbucks-Kaffee mehr Koffein als in Monster ist, dann könnte ich mir nochmal ein ziemliches Kursfeuerwerk vorstellen, weil dieses Unternehmen einfach noch enormes Wachstumspotential hat.
Schön langsam aber sicher gehts wieder deutlich aufwärts und schon springen die ersten Analysten auf den Zug auf:
www.finanznachrichten.de/...er-beverage-mit-overweight-009.htm
Es gibt keine neuen Beiträge.
|
Neueste Beiträge aus dem Monster Beverage Forum
| Wertung | Antworten | Thema | Verfasser | letzter Verfasser | letzter Beitrag | |
9 | 161 | Der Kurs rennt und rennt, Hansen | Mme.Eugenie | ARIVA.DE | 11.09.25 18:00 | |
| 10 | Fataler Fehler von Ariva Nachrichten- MNST | Mme.Eugenie | Mme.Eugenie | 29.03.23 15:17 | ||
| 1 | Monster Beverage | Mr. Millionäre | Mr. Millionäre | 28.12.22 21:14 | ||
| 22 | 146 | Börsen-Fragen Thread ! | Fundamental | Fundamental | 25.04.21 03:16 | |
| 153 | Die Bodenbildung scheint abgeschlossen zu sein. | Luky | Mme.Eugenie | 25.04.21 00:04 |