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Der USA Bären-Thread
Beiträge:
156.449
Zugriffe: 26.395.129 / Heute: 148
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oder: ein Blase kommt selten allein
Mortgage Applications Drop for Second Week
MORTGAGES, HOUSING, REAL ESTATE, CREDIT, LOANS, LENDING, ECONOMY, RECESSION, GOVERNMENT, FORECLOSURES, CONSUMERS
Reuters
| 16 Feb 2011 | 07:10 AM ET
Applications for U.S. home mortgages dropped last week as high interest rates continued to dampen demand and loan refinancing tumbled, an industry group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, dropped 9.5 percent in the week ended Feb.11.
#3366ff">Der Anstieg der Hypothekenzinsen drückt auf die Nachfrage. Der FED bleiben die Hände gebunden.
The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 11.4 percent last week to its lowest level since the week ended July 3, 2009.
The gauge of loan requests for home purchases was down 5.9 percent.
Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.12 percent in the week, inching down from 5.13 percent the week before, but still high enough to keep buyers out of the market.
"Mortgage rates remained above 5 percent last week, up almost a full percentage point from their October lows, and refinance volume continued to drop," Michael Fratantoni, MBA's vice president of research and economics, said in a statement.
Simon Johnson,the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is the co-author of “13 Bankers.”
On Capitol Hill this week, a serious debate is under way about whether to carry out an important part of the new Dodd-Frank rules for derivatives – with hearings in the House on Tuesday and in the Senate on Thursday.
Much of the discussion has focused on the report produced by Keybridge Research for a group called the Coalition for Derivatives End Users that purports to show the dangers of extending the rules to nonfinancial companies (the so-called end users in this context).
In testimony on Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee, Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, pleased the Republican majority by saying the rules should not apply to nonfinancial companies that buy derivatives but “only on transactions between financial entities.
Representative Spencer Bachus, Republican of Alabama and the committee’s chairman, responded: “I want to applaud Chairman Gensler. Members on the majority think it’s critically important that we don’t impose margin or clearing requirements on end users.”
Yet the Keybridge Research report – as exposed by Andrew Ross Sorkin in The New York Times on Tuesday – engaged in an extraordinary, shocking misrepresentation, asserting its credibility by claiming affiliations with respected academics who have now asked that their names be removed from the consulting firm’s Web site. Some of those listed as advisers said they had had no relationship with the firm.
The report is, in fact, pure lobbying disguised as research.
For their own self-interest, the big banks want customers who can undertake derivatives transactions without reasonable constraints – and these banks want to disguise this self-interest in a veneer of social interest.
Republican committee members cited the report in arguing against the rules.
This coalition for end users does not represent the best interests of such actual end users; rather, it is a front for the big banks that dominate the market in over-the-counter derivatives.
The coalition has no good arguments to back up its assertions that properly implementing Dodd-Frank will result in significant job losses. In fact, as Mr. Sorkin reports, Keybridge has serious credibility problems.
As Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economic science, points out to Mr. Sorkin, at the heart of the report is a preposterous argument – that if we subsidize insurance, jobs will be created.
If someone made this point in regard to fire insurance or property and casualty insurance (particularly for American companies, which these days have around $2 trillion in cash), they would be dismissed out of hand. But the mystique – and confusion – surrounding derivatives is such that the material in this report will be taken seriously by many on Capitol Hill.
The only people who can really gain from this subsidy are the bankers who buy and sell derivatives. The actual end users are being duped by the banks. Perhaps you don’t feel bad about that – but such duping is very dangerous for financial-system stability.
The acknowledgment by so many firms that they have weak risk models is revealing and extremely worrisome (see Section 4.3 on page 4 of the report).
These firms are apparently relying on the banks to advise them on risk, but the banks have a strong vested interest in a more highly leveraged financial system. That leaves the nonfinancial firms gambling recklessly with their investors’ money. I hope tough questions will be asked about this at annual general meetings and in boardrooms.
The high level of profits in over-the-counter derivatives gives it all away. The real end users should bring in truly independent economic consultants, who can tell them that this level of profits is a clear indication that the market for O.T.C. derivatives is nowhere near competitive.
The end users are being ripped off – and then providing political support to the banks responsible for it. A serious management failure – and the issue of fiduciary responsibility – is clear at the nonfinancial firms surveyed in the Keybridge report.
We are looking at market power masquerading as lobbying on behalf of customers. This would be a laughable combination – were it not for the fact that this coalition did immeasurable damage to financial regulation last year,.......
economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/...ivatives/?ref=economy
On Capitol Hill this week, a serious debate is under way about whether to carry out an important part of the new Dodd-Frank rules for derivatives – with hearings in the House on Tuesday and in the Senate on Thursday.
Much of the discussion has focused on the report produced by Keybridge Research for a group called the Coalition for Derivatives End Users that purports to show the dangers of extending the rules to nonfinancial companies (the so-called end users in this context).
In testimony on Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee, Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, pleased the Republican majority by saying the rules should not apply to nonfinancial companies that buy derivatives but “only on transactions between financial entities.
Representative Spencer Bachus, Republican of Alabama and the committee’s chairman, responded: “I want to applaud Chairman Gensler. Members on the majority think it’s critically important that we don’t impose margin or clearing requirements on end users.”
Yet the Keybridge Research report – as exposed by Andrew Ross Sorkin in The New York Times on Tuesday – engaged in an extraordinary, shocking misrepresentation, asserting its credibility by claiming affiliations with respected academics who have now asked that their names be removed from the consulting firm’s Web site. Some of those listed as advisers said they had had no relationship with the firm.
The report is, in fact, pure lobbying disguised as research.
For their own self-interest, the big banks want customers who can undertake derivatives transactions without reasonable constraints – and these banks want to disguise this self-interest in a veneer of social interest.
Republican committee members cited the report in arguing against the rules.
This coalition for end users does not represent the best interests of such actual end users; rather, it is a front for the big banks that dominate the market in over-the-counter derivatives.
The coalition has no good arguments to back up its assertions that properly implementing Dodd-Frank will result in significant job losses. In fact, as Mr. Sorkin reports, Keybridge has serious credibility problems.
As Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economic science, points out to Mr. Sorkin, at the heart of the report is a preposterous argument – that if we subsidize insurance, jobs will be created.
If someone made this point in regard to fire insurance or property and casualty insurance (particularly for American companies, which these days have around $2 trillion in cash), they would be dismissed out of hand. But the mystique – and confusion – surrounding derivatives is such that the material in this report will be taken seriously by many on Capitol Hill.
The only people who can really gain from this subsidy are the bankers who buy and sell derivatives. The actual end users are being duped by the banks. Perhaps you don’t feel bad about that – but such duping is very dangerous for financial-system stability.
The acknowledgment by so many firms that they have weak risk models is revealing and extremely worrisome (see Section 4.3 on page 4 of the report).
These firms are apparently relying on the banks to advise them on risk, but the banks have a strong vested interest in a more highly leveraged financial system. That leaves the nonfinancial firms gambling recklessly with their investors’ money. I hope tough questions will be asked about this at annual general meetings and in boardrooms.
The high level of profits in over-the-counter derivatives gives it all away. The real end users should bring in truly independent economic consultants, who can tell them that this level of profits is a clear indication that the market for O.T.C. derivatives is nowhere near competitive.
The end users are being ripped off – and then providing political support to the banks responsible for it. A serious management failure – and the issue of fiduciary responsibility – is clear at the nonfinancial firms surveyed in the Keybridge report.
We are looking at market power masquerading as lobbying on behalf of customers. This would be a laughable combination – were it not for the fact that this coalition did immeasurable damage to financial regulation last year,.......
economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/...ivatives/?ref=economy
This country is a disaster. If I saw people in the streets with pitchforks headed for the banks, I'd join them in a heartbeat.
und die Lebensmittelpreise sind seit Januar 2010 um 29% gestiegen!
sagt der neue Report der Weltbank:
www.worldbank.org/foodcrisis/...rice_watch_report_feb2011.html
The bank’s price index soared 29 percent from January 2010 to January 2011 (15 percent just from October to January). Wheat, maize, sugar and edible oils have seen the sharpest price increases in the last six months, with a relatively smaller increase in rice. The rising prices have increased the vulnerability of economies, particularly those that import a high share of their food and have limited capacity for government borrowing and spending.
“In the immediate term, it is important to ensure that further increases in poverty are curtailed by taking measures that calm jittery markets and by scaling up safety net and nutritional programs,” the World Bank said in the report, released Tuesday....
economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/15/...udy-says/?ref=economy
sagt der neue Report der Weltbank:
www.worldbank.org/foodcrisis/...rice_watch_report_feb2011.html
The bank’s price index soared 29 percent from January 2010 to January 2011 (15 percent just from October to January). Wheat, maize, sugar and edible oils have seen the sharpest price increases in the last six months, with a relatively smaller increase in rice. The rising prices have increased the vulnerability of economies, particularly those that import a high share of their food and have limited capacity for government borrowing and spending.
“In the immediate term, it is important to ensure that further increases in poverty are curtailed by taking measures that calm jittery markets and by scaling up safety net and nutritional programs,” the World Bank said in the report, released Tuesday....
economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/15/...udy-says/?ref=economy
Telekom legt Angebot vor - 2,17 Prozent mehr Geld.
Man hätte auch schreiben können
Telekom legt Angebot vor + 2,17 Prozent weniger Geld.
Man hätte auch schreiben können
Telekom legt Angebot vor + 2,17 Prozent weniger Geld.
Guten Mooooooooooooooooooooooooooorgen!
ist Walmart der nächste?
www.businessinsider.com/china-carrefour-close-inflation-2011-2
The biggest foreign retailer in China, Carrefour, not Walmart, is closing stores left and right because of shrinking margins.
Employees in Changchun and Shaoxing say they have stopped replenishing stock and will be closing soon, according to Global Times. Along with other store closings, this would represent Carrefour's biggest shutdown in 16 years in China.
The reasons are obvious from a macro perspective. Price inflation is increasing input costs and hurting consumers........
www.businessinsider.com/china-carrefour-close-inflation-2011-2
The biggest foreign retailer in China, Carrefour, not Walmart, is closing stores left and right because of shrinking margins.
Employees in Changchun and Shaoxing say they have stopped replenishing stock and will be closing soon, according to Global Times. Along with other store closings, this would represent Carrefour's biggest shutdown in 16 years in China.
The reasons are obvious from a macro perspective. Price inflation is increasing input costs and hurting consumers........
mein Depot gewandert. http://www.ariva.de/..._seit_dem_Tief_t283343?pnr=9768545#jump9768545
Grund war die Verdoppelung des S&P seit dem Tief. Der DAX zeigt nach wie vor keine Schwäche. Auch die schlechten Daten aus den USA vom Vortag sind bereits Geschichte. Somit werde ich die Position zunächst nicht erhöhen und warte auf eine Richtungsentscheidung.
Permanent
das Internet ist abgeschaltet in Bahrein,nur Satellitentelefon geht noch
in Lybien ist das Hauptquartier der Regierungspartei angeblich in Flammen
In Iran wurde den auswärtigen Medien verboten zu berichten
im Irak stürmen die Leute die öffentlichen Gebäude
laut Al Dschasira gibt es die neuesten Berichte zu Bahrein hier:
globalvoicesonline.org/specialcoverage/...rotests-2011/#latest
in Lybien ist das Hauptquartier der Regierungspartei angeblich in Flammen
In Iran wurde den auswärtigen Medien verboten zu berichten
im Irak stürmen die Leute die öffentlichen Gebäude
laut Al Dschasira gibt es die neuesten Berichte zu Bahrein hier:
globalvoicesonline.org/specialcoverage/...rotests-2011/#latest
kann man sehr schön am Chart der M2 Velocity ("calculated as the ratio of quarterly nominal GDP") erkennen.
(Verkleinert auf 88%) 
"Der Anstieg der Hypothekenzinsen drückt auf die Nachfrage. Der FED bleiben die Hände gebunden."
Da QE die Langlaufzinsen hochbringt (statt runter), wäre es für die Fed doch ein Leichtes, QE einzustellen. Dann würden auch die Langlaufzinsen wieder sinken (na ja, aus Deflationsgefahr, aber Schwund ist bei jeder Sache). Für den Housingmarkt wären niedrigere Hypothekenzinsen, die von der Zinsrendite der 30-jährigen UST abhängen, jedenfalls ein Segen.
Doch dann bleibt die große Frage, wem sonst Geithner seine 1,6 Billionen an neuen Staatsanleihen in 2011 "andrehen" kann - und zu welchen Zinskonditionen.
Die Begründungs-Lügen der Fed zur Notwendigkeit von QE2 ("Arbeitsmarkt ist immer noch schwach", "wir wollen die Langlaufzinsen senken, um die Kreditvergabe zu fördern" usw.) werden immer fadenscheiniger und durchsichtiger.
QE dient in Wahrheit fast ausschließlich der Refinanzierung von Geithners gigantischer Neuverschuldung (= Monetarisierung von Staatsschulden), weil niemand sonst die Unmengen an neuen US-Staatsanleihen zu Mickerzinsen abnehmen würde.
Interessant wird es, wenn die US-Staatsanleihen-Renditen wegen Risikoaversion infolge von "zu viel QE" weiter hochschießen. Wie lange wird die Fed dann noch behaupten können, mit QE "die Deflation bekämpfen" zu wollen?
mich schon lange, warum in den USA zur Zeit so wenig gelyncht wird.
Unterbezahlte Polizisten, korrupte geldgeile Banker und Politiker ist im Film immer ein Stoff, der mit dem Banker und Politiker am Galgen oder in einer Blutlache endet. ;-)
Unterbezahlte Polizisten, korrupte geldgeile Banker und Politiker ist im Film immer ein Stoff, der mit dem Banker und Politiker am Galgen oder in einer Blutlache endet. ;-)
dabei gehört es doch zwingend in den USA-Bärenthread!
Die französische Finanzministerin Lagarde äußert sich in den vergangen Tagen über die globalen Währungsfragen. Im Rahmen der anstehenden G-20-Präsidentschaft strebe Frankreich eine Neuordnung des Weltwährungssystems an. Zitat Lagarde: "Jede Idee ist willkommen, auch Bandbreiten für Wechselkurse", sagte die Ministerin. Sie sei stets vorsichtig mit allzu ambitionierten Zielen, "wenn wir aber so ein System hinkriegen und es von der Nachwelt Bretton Woods II genannt wird, soll mir das recht sein".
de.reuters.com/article/economicsNews/idDEBEE71B05J20110212
Was heisst das für die Amis? Der Führungsanspruch der Amis wird zunehmend hinterfragt. Da die Rolle der US-Wirtschaft am globalen Wirtschafts zunehmend schrumpft, verliert der USD somit den Anspruch, das Weltfinanzsystem zu unterstützen bzw. zu dominieren. (siehe hierzu auch Folker Hellmayer: www.godmode-trader.de/nachricht/...flation,a2467418,b605.html)
Ein neues Währungssystem wird zwar nicht kurzfristig umgesetzt werden können, aber die aktuelle amerikanische Geldpolitik, die die immer weiter ausufernde Verschuldungspolitik flankiert, wird diese Tendenz definitiv beschleunigen.
Die französische Finanzministerin Lagarde äußert sich in den vergangen Tagen über die globalen Währungsfragen. Im Rahmen der anstehenden G-20-Präsidentschaft strebe Frankreich eine Neuordnung des Weltwährungssystems an. Zitat Lagarde: "Jede Idee ist willkommen, auch Bandbreiten für Wechselkurse", sagte die Ministerin. Sie sei stets vorsichtig mit allzu ambitionierten Zielen, "wenn wir aber so ein System hinkriegen und es von der Nachwelt Bretton Woods II genannt wird, soll mir das recht sein".
de.reuters.com/article/economicsNews/idDEBEE71B05J20110212
Was heisst das für die Amis? Der Führungsanspruch der Amis wird zunehmend hinterfragt. Da die Rolle der US-Wirtschaft am globalen Wirtschafts zunehmend schrumpft, verliert der USD somit den Anspruch, das Weltfinanzsystem zu unterstützen bzw. zu dominieren. (siehe hierzu auch Folker Hellmayer: www.godmode-trader.de/nachricht/...flation,a2467418,b605.html)
Ein neues Währungssystem wird zwar nicht kurzfristig umgesetzt werden können, aber die aktuelle amerikanische Geldpolitik, die die immer weiter ausufernde Verschuldungspolitik flankiert, wird diese Tendenz definitiv beschleunigen.
Bewertungen:
- Wenn die Fed die Deflation bekämpfen will und erreicht damit eine starke Inflation, kann man nicht sagen, sie war nicht erfolgreich. Inflation ist eindeutig keine Deflation.
- Wenn QE die wirksame Geldmenge erhöhen soll und die Zinsen zähmen soll, kann man nicht am Zwischenergebnis (Stand der Zinsen, Geldmenge) festmachen ob und wie stark es gewirkt hat. Die Wirkung sieht man nur, wenn man das Zwischenergebnis mit dem potentiellen Zwischenergebnis ohne QE vergleicht.
- Wenn die Fed die Deflation bekämpfen will und erreicht damit eine starke Inflation, kann man nicht sagen, sie war nicht erfolgreich. Inflation ist eindeutig keine Deflation.
- Wenn QE die wirksame Geldmenge erhöhen soll und die Zinsen zähmen soll, kann man nicht am Zwischenergebnis (Stand der Zinsen, Geldmenge) festmachen ob und wie stark es gewirkt hat. Die Wirkung sieht man nur, wenn man das Zwischenergebnis mit dem potentiellen Zwischenergebnis ohne QE vergleicht.
Das ist der stärkste Anstieg seit Okt. 2008.
EUR/USD fällt auf die Meldung deutlich auf 1,3470. Die Dollarstärke dürfte den Dollar-Carrytradern (u. a. in Rohstoffen) nicht schmecken. Für Aktien sind steigende Erzeugerpreise (bzw. "Inflation") im aktuellen Kontext auch nicht gut, weil die Firmenmargen sinken, wenn die Kosten steigen, aber nicht voll weitergegeben werden können, siehe hier:
http://www.ariva.de/...A_Baeren_Thread_t283343?page=3032#jumppos75819
Feb. 16, 2011, 8:30 a.m. EST
January producer prices rise 0.8%; core up 0.5%
By Jeffry Bartash
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. wholesale prices jumped 0.8% in January as gasoline costs rose again, the government reported Wednesday. And core producer prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.5%, marking the largest increase since October 2008. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had predicted a 0.9% gain in overall producer prices and a 0.3% increase in the core rate. Producer prices have risen 3.6% over the past 12 months on an unadjusted basis. The core rate has climbed a slower 1.6% over that span.
EUR/USD fällt auf die Meldung deutlich auf 1,3470. Die Dollarstärke dürfte den Dollar-Carrytradern (u. a. in Rohstoffen) nicht schmecken. Für Aktien sind steigende Erzeugerpreise (bzw. "Inflation") im aktuellen Kontext auch nicht gut, weil die Firmenmargen sinken, wenn die Kosten steigen, aber nicht voll weitergegeben werden können, siehe hier:
http://www.ariva.de/...A_Baeren_Thread_t283343?page=3032#jumppos75819
Feb. 16, 2011, 8:30 a.m. EST
January producer prices rise 0.8%; core up 0.5%
By Jeffry Bartash
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. wholesale prices jumped 0.8% in January as gasoline costs rose again, the government reported Wednesday. And core producer prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.5%, marking the largest increase since October 2008. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had predicted a 0.9% gain in overall producer prices and a 0.3% increase in the core rate. Producer prices have risen 3.6% over the past 12 months on an unadjusted basis. The core rate has climbed a slower 1.6% over that span.
Inflation ohne Wachstum ist wie
Aktien ohne Börse
oder
Geld ohne Weiber
Aktien ohne Börse
oder
Geld ohne Weiber
#75840 Jawoll Meister, zu Befehl Meister !">
verehrter Untertan...
(Verkleinert auf 89%)
Producer Prices Rising, Even Outside of Food and Energy
ECONOMY, INFLATION, PRODUCER PRICES INDEX, PPI, FOOD, ENERGY
Reuters
| 16 Feb 2011 | 08:36 AM ET
Producer prices rose 0.8 percent in January in line with expectations on a rise in energy prices, a Labor Department report showed Wednesday.
Producer prices rose 3.6 percent over the last 12 months, slightly more than the 3.5 percent gain expected by analysts polled by Reuters.
Core producer prices rose a larger-than-expected 0.5 percent on a jump in pharmaceutical preparations and plastic products. Analysts had forecast a 0.2 percent gain.
Housing Starts Surge in January, Permits Tumble
ECONOMY, HOUSING STARTS, REAL ESTATE, CONSTRUCTION,
Reuters
| 16 Feb 2011 | 08:37 AM ET
U.S. housing starts rose more than expected in January to their highest rate in four months but permits for future home construction dropped sharply after hefty gains the prior month, according to a government report on Wednesday that showed the housing market still bouncing along the bottom.
The Commerce Department said housing starts jumped 14.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 596,000 units, the highest since September. Decembers starts were revised down to a 520,000-unit pace from the previously reported rate of 530,000 units.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts edging up to a 554,000-unit rate. Compared to January last year, residential construction was down 2.6 percent.
Groundbreaking last month was lifted by a 77.7 percent jump in volatile multi-family homes. Single-family home construction fell 1.0 percent.
The housing market recovery is being hobbled by an over-supply of homes that is depressing prices. A high unemployment rate also means the sector, which was at the heart of the worst recession since the 1930s, will struggle to recover even as the broader economy gains momentum.
An independent survey on Tuesday showed sentiment among home builders hovering near all-time lows in February.
New building permits dropped 10.4 percent to a 562,000-unit pace last month, partially reversing Decembers 15.3 percent surge that came ahead of changes in building codes in three states. Permits were pulled down last month by a 23.8 percent plunge in the multi-family segment.
Single-family unit permits fell 4.8 percent.
Analysts had expected overall building permits to fall to a 560,000-unit pace in January.
New home completions fell 9.5 percent to a record low 512,000 units in January.
Basic Rules for Shorting Stocks
1. Shorting Momentum names is dangerous: Unless you are Superman, never step in front of a speeding locomotive
2. Valuation alone is insufficient reason to get short a stock — History teaches us that cheap stocks can get cheaper, dear stocks can get more expensive
3. ALWAYS work with a pre-determined loss – either a physical or mental stop loss — Never leave yourself open to infinite losses
4. Fundamentals tell you WHY to short something, not WHEN to short it. ALWAYS have some technical confirmation before shorting. Make a short selling wish list, then WAIT for technical confirmation. (We use Money Flow, Short Term Trend lines, Institutional Ownership, Analyst Ratings).
5. It is tough to be a contrarian: During Bull and Bear cycles, the Crowd IS the market.
You have to figure out two things:
…a) When the crowd is wrong — Doug Kass calls it “Variant Perception”
…b) When the crowd starts to get an inkling they are wrong
At the turns — not the major trends — is where contrarians clean up.
6. Look for Over-owned, Over-loved stocks: 95% Institutional ownership, All buys or Strong Buys (no sells), and 700% gains over the past few years are reasons to put names on your short selling wish list. (That is how my partner Kevin Lane found and shorted Enron and Tyco back in the 1990s).
7. Beware the “Crowded Short“– they tend to become targets of the squeeze!
8. You can use Options to either juice your short returns, or pre-define your risk capital (options)
www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/rules-for-shorting/
1. Shorting Momentum names is dangerous: Unless you are Superman, never step in front of a speeding locomotive
2. Valuation alone is insufficient reason to get short a stock — History teaches us that cheap stocks can get cheaper, dear stocks can get more expensive
3. ALWAYS work with a pre-determined loss – either a physical or mental stop loss — Never leave yourself open to infinite losses
4. Fundamentals tell you WHY to short something, not WHEN to short it. ALWAYS have some technical confirmation before shorting. Make a short selling wish list, then WAIT for technical confirmation. (We use Money Flow, Short Term Trend lines, Institutional Ownership, Analyst Ratings).
5. It is tough to be a contrarian: During Bull and Bear cycles, the Crowd IS the market.
You have to figure out two things:
…a) When the crowd is wrong — Doug Kass calls it “Variant Perception”
…b) When the crowd starts to get an inkling they are wrong
At the turns — not the major trends — is where contrarians clean up.
6. Look for Over-owned, Over-loved stocks: 95% Institutional ownership, All buys or Strong Buys (no sells), and 700% gains over the past few years are reasons to put names on your short selling wish list. (That is how my partner Kevin Lane found and shorted Enron and Tyco back in the 1990s).
7. Beware the “Crowded Short“– they tend to become targets of the squeeze!
8. You can use Options to either juice your short returns, or pre-define your risk capital (options)
www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/rules-for-shorting/
guttenberg hat den geschmissen,der ihm die doktorarbeit geschrieben hat.der arme kerl muss immer durchgreifen.da dies aber alles konsequenzen für die börse hat geh ich mit al short.
Es wird böse enden (Werner Enke)
Es gibt keine neuen Beiträge.
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