The Rare Earth Market Evolves
Posted on October 15, 2014 by Jon Hykawy
A good example of one such supporter of the space is the German Rohstoffallianz. The RA was formed by a consortium of German business to help secure supplies of certain critical materials, rare earths among them. But the criteria that are likely to be applied by strategic investors like the German RA are likely very different from those applied by financial investors to select the ideal rare earth project.
We believe that a likely list of such criteria would include the following:
Near-term production. At minimum the project must be capable of completing its DFS or engineering study in 2015. That puts it on track to be producing at nameplate capacity before 2020, which includes the effect of what will probably be a two year-long production ramp.
Long mine life, at least 20 years and preferably more than 30. There is no point in spending money to supply a necessary amount of REO for only 5 years.
A necessary level of output of the (truly) critical rare earths. To me, the critical rare earths are the magnet materials, not yttrium. If anyone cared about yttrium, it wouldn’t sell at the low price that it does. There must be a sufficient output, not in percentages but in tonnes, of neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium. Yes, I do believe that dysprosium use as a percentage of magnet mass will decrease, but dysprosium use won’t decline to zero, it is always going to be cheap insurance against demagnetization.
The project must be located in a region of geopolitical stability. If you are building a project to supply industry for 20 or 30 years, stability means STABILITY. If I had to look for good projects outside of areas like North America, Western Europe and Australia, I would, but there are enough rare earth projects around that I don’t. So that’s where a supplier to a group like the RA is likely to be located.
Robust economics. If a project is going to be a long-term supplier, it has to be able to weather a sustained period of low prices. My previously published REO price deck was intended to show how low prices could go if sufficient supply entered the market to saturate demand for almost all the elements. If a project can generate positive cash flow with that deck, it can take the worst that the future rare earth market can dish out.
Almost non-existent remaining technical and social acceptance risks. If the project clears all the above hurdles, then it has to possess a simple, preferably proven flow sheet, and there should be almost zero potential for there to be social resistance to the new mine.
- See more at: investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/...es/#sthash.TfbkIPrN.dpuf