Gute Analyse zur politischen Situation in Ecuador ... am 24.05 soll die xte Verfassung auf den Tisch ... was drin stehen könnte und warum sagt dir gleich das Licht ... ;-)
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Ecuador: Mining contracts will be re-negotiated
OXFORD ANALYTICA
Monday, May 05, 2008
SUBJECT: A moratorium on mining and cancellation of concessions.
SIGNIFICANCE: All mining activity has been put on hold whilestakeholders determine how they are affected. Markets reacted swiftlyto the news with share prices of foreign companies operating in Ecuadordropping dramatically.
ANALYSIS: Ecuador's constituent assembly has released a mandatein which over 3,000 mining concessions are either cancelled orsuspended without compensation or legal recourse for those affected.The mandate calls for the revocation of all mining concessions where:the concession is located within national parks or environmentallysensitive areas; the owner of the concession has not made anyinvestment since December, 2007; the concession does not yet hold anapproved environmental impact study; the concession holder hasoutstanding obligations to the state, including those related to taxesor patents; and the concession holder is a former employee of theMinistry of Energy and Mines or relative of a former employee.
It also states that no one individual or entity can hold more thanthree concessions, and all medium and large-scale mining operationsmust discontinue operations and re-negotiate contracts. New contractswill require royalties to be paid to the state and must conform to thenew constitution and mining law, both of which are expected to comeinto effect within 180 days. The mandate also calls for the creation ofa state mining company that would take part in all future miningactivities.
Motivation. The mandate cited the need for a mining moratoriumdue to environmental damage and poor compensation for the state andlocal communities. While the constituent assembly wants to ensure thatmining operations are carried out in line with the new legal framework,political factors primarily motivated the decision:
The government believes many concessions were obtained illegally, andpeople close to certain former presidents and government officialsbenefited disproportionately.
Although the ruling Alianza Pais movement represents a wide range ofinterests, the mining decree conforms to the common goal ofre-distributing wealth by preventing concentration of the country'sresources in the hands of a few individuals or companies.
Destabilizing the mining industry could be interpreted as an attempt toweaken mining companies' positions when they begin to re-negotiatecontracts.
Foreign companies. Numerous foreign companies that currentlyare involved in, or have completed, exploration – including Canadianjunior mining companies Aurelian Resources, Corriente Resources andIamgold – must delay operations for at least 180 days. As a result,their shares dropped dramatically following the announcement. They arenow seeking to determine how the law will affect their operations: Allcomplain that they were left out of the process of drafting the decreeand claim it has surprised them.
Some have stated publicly that they will continue to operate in Ecuador even if their number of concessions is limited.
Others are hoping that medium and large-scale foreign companies will be exempt from the provision under the new mining law.
The government has attempted to reassure companies by immediatelyinviting them to contribute to drafting the new mining law. The largestmining companies have met President Rafael Correa to discuss concernsabout the mandate and make suggestions about the new mining law.
Political divisions. Mining is a deeply divisive issue withinAlianza Pais: Correa has claimed to be in favour of responsible miningthat provides fair royalties to the state, significant benefits tolocal communities and respect for environmental standards.
The constituent assembly president, and former minister of energy andmines, Alberto Acosta, believes that protecting the environment shouldbe prioritised over economic gain.
The two may find a compromise through a national referendum on whetheropen-pit mining should be allowed, at the same time as a vote on thenew constitution. If voters rejected a ban, Correa would have a mandateto invite future mining operations. However, the likely outcome remainsunclear: Correa's high approval ratings and repeated electoralsuccesses mean his position could be favoured, especially given thetechnical nature of the issue and its lack of relevance for mostEcuadorians.
Nevertheless, Alianza Pais would avoid giving the referendum a high profile to avoid drawing attention to divisions.
Protest potential. Although Correa came to power with thesupport of a large part of Ecuador's indigenous peoples, manyorganizations representing this constituency have threatened widespreadprotests to demand an end to mining: Correa has verbally attackedpopular indigenous rights and environmental activists who support suchmeasures, and challenged them to contest his authority in the nextpresidential elections.
He promised to use force against anyone who impedes mining operations,as he has done in the past with groups whose protests temporarilystalled oil production.
By suspending mining operations, the decree allows Correa to postponeconflicts with indigenous and environmental groups and avoid clasheswithin his own party until after elections. Although the law willreassure anti-mining voices in the short term, protests probably willresume after mining resumes. However, Correa hopes that by winning asecond mandate he would be able to use his electoral success todiscredit and dismiss protesters.
Oil similarities. If the current government position resemblesits recent approach when dealing with foreign oil companies, the decreeprobably is an attempt to alarm mining companies and strengthen thegovernment's hand in future negotiations:
The government in November announced a new oil-revenue windfall tax, then offered to re-negotiate contracts.
It maintains that oil contracts are temporary until the new constitution is drafted and approved.
The government may be planning a similar strategy with miningcompanies. Correa calculates that: high prices and strong demand forminerals will discourage mining companies from leaving and encouragemore investment; foreign investors will respond favourably to a higherroyalty regime if the government proves reliable, and promotes law,order and a stable investor environment; and if successful, he would beable to take credit for making mining more profitable for the state.
CONCLUSION: The mining moratorium reflects Correa's desire toimpose his government's terms, conditions and legal framework. The newconstitution will enshrine indigenous peoples' right to be consulted onoperations in their territories. In addition, the government will writea mining law with stronger royalty provisions and environmentalstandards, and hold a referendum on banning open-pit mining.Large-scale mining companies will have the opportunity to re-negotiatecontracts with the state and eventually are likely to accept governmentconditions.
From the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief
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