Aixtron purpose of this thread

nimmt in Dresden ein neues Wafer-Werk in Betrieb.
Könnte Aixtron davon auch etwas haben? Wer hat eine Meinung oder gar Informationen dazu?

I wrote in #1011:
"6000 monthly 8" wafers need 40 Aixtron's G5 assuming one batch per day. If 780,000 annual wafers by the end of 2022 is realized, we are talking about 400 G5's! "

In #1012 the news says:
""Innosecco plans to reach a production capacity of 12,000 pieces per month in Suzhou (the world 's largest 8 -inch production capacity) and Zhuhai plant (the world's first 8 -inch) by the end of this year"

So the total Innoscience GaN-on-Si capacity will actually be 12,000 8" wafers by years end.  That would mean 80 G5's.  My assumption of run rate was one batch per day. The plant could make two runs a day or whatever depending how thick the GaN layer needs to be.

Even if only 200 G5's would be needed by 2022 by Innoscience alone, we are talking about the total 2022 projected revenue by the analysts already (397m euro).

The SEMI INDUSTRY NETWORK news mentioned contract signing ceremony at the scene.  Aixtron among the other equipment companies could be there to sign contracts.  Mr. Song the Aixtron China GM was there.

Excellent research as always, CWL! Do i read correctly € 397m in potential orders from this single customer?

Although I remember from my discussions with the company very well that Asian customers tend to order in large badges (as in 2009/10) to achieve good pricing. So in a worst case scenario we might have to apply a 25% (?) haircut which would still leave it at an astonishing 300m€ order potential.

Thanks alot for your fantastic work here.  

Hi Alex,

certainly! Bosch is a customer for Aixtron, running Beta tests on the new SIC machines.. I think they disclosed that in the last 3-4 conf calls.. so absolutely, this is positive for Aixtron.

More positive though is a recent interview with the CEO/CFO from Bosch in the Financial Times who said that Auto OEMs have to put "money on the table" to ensure better supply and a more stable Chip order situation in the future.

Clearly more capacity coming in the Chipsector in Europe!

Regards,
Fel

Ship it in: www.dgap.de/dgap/News/adhoc/...f-hohem-niveau/?newsID=1453692

The Semi.org news referenced in post#1012 has been modified.  The latest version has taken out the section that has the names of the companies attended.  The latest version has gone through two revisions already and certain MOCVD information has now been deleted.  I guess someone is monitoring here and there and realized certain information should not be out there.  Aixtron should make a press release soon since Innoscience is already making news with Aixtron in there.  Look at the price today!

The company did the right thing.

Just to add that this adhoc represents a 36% increase in the EBIT guidance for this year. Doesn‘t happen that often in mid June…

adhoc! Darauf haben wir doch alle gewartet. Kam ziemlich überraschend jetzt.
Nun werden wir neue Kurse erleben - endlich !!!
:-))

@Alex, agree, that is the news we have been waiting for…even though it has not been a complete surprise (ref. fel’s excellent postings following the latest quarterly results).

Thus, the real good news in my view is the timing (I would have expected such a news only in a month time or with the 2Q report) and in particular the magnitude of the guidance increase! It’s not just a 360 to 380ish increase, but rather an astonishing 360 to 420m! Following the 3Q20 result, the 2021 revenue consensus number stood at 290m, following the 4Q20 numbers it was 340m, following 1Q numbers it was 360m – now we will probably end up at a consensus number of 420-430m. If you need a definition of an “inflection point” going forward – take Aixtron as an example.

As a quick side calculation:
360m revs = 18% EBIT margin
420m revs = 21% EBIT margin
=> incr. revs of 60m yield incremental 23m of EBIT, thus incremental business comes with an EBIT margin of approx. 40% (selective view, I know).

EBIT consensus as of yesterday (source: marketscreener) stood at 73.5m, the new Aixtron guidance is at 88.2m, i.e. some 20% above. Impressive.

heute geht es erst richtig los. Das macht echt Freude.

was für ein Aufstieg. Gut das ich durchgehalten habe, auch bei rücksetzen nicht in Panik gefallen bin. Ich kann sagen, das ich Glücklich bin.  

Danke baggo-mh

Obviously something big happened in a short period.  Innoscience announced its production plan of 6000 monthly 8" GaN-on-Si wafers a few days ago, which requires about 40 G5 or ~80m euro roughly in that ballpark.  I believe because the Innoscience news is disclosed by the Chinese media and Aixtron was in that news, Aixtron had to come out to update its shareholders,  as I alluded in #1018.

CWL1, thank you for your excellent research.

Vielen Dank auch an dlg, fel216, joss, Alex, den Gründer baggo-mh und alle,
die mit Ihren Beiträgen dieses Forum bereichern.

bestfuture

To answer fel206's question:   Do i read correctly € 397m in potential orders from this single customer?

In the news it says:  
"Production capacity will gradually climb after the start of production. The production capacity will reach 6,000 pieces/month by the end of 2021. After the project is fully operational at the end of 2022, the Suzhou plant will achieve an annual production capacity of 780,000 pieces of 8-inch silicon-based gallium nitride wafers, with an estimated annual output value of 15 billion yuan. Profits and taxes exceed 1.5 billion yuan."

So by the end of 2021 the capacity would reach annual 72,000 wafers. The news, IF ACCURATE, says to reach 780,000 capacity at the end of 2022.  That is a 10x increase from 2021.  That would require ~400 G5 by the end of 2022.  Of course this is just an estimate, but you get the picture.

for mistyping the name

Wer bei baggo-mh und cel zwischen den Zeilen gelesen hat, hat genau verstanden was gemeint war:-)
Ich hab Rücksetzer zum Aufbau meiner Positionen genutzt und werde weiter investiert bleiben.

Weiterhin viel Erfolg wünsche ich allen investierten.
Gruss tabsi123

natürlich ist @baggo noch dabei. Er wird so schnell nicht von einer Erfolgsleiter springen.
Leider macht er sich nur in den Foren seit längerem etwas rarer.
Schade eigentlich!
Aber nun wird er wohl ein paar Tage damit beschäftigt sein, "unseren" Erfolg und "seine" Prognose zu feiern.
Ein herzliches Prösterchen dazu !!!

:-)

nicht vergessen, dass der Erfolg umgemünzt werden soll ;)
Aber die Freude an sich wäre schon Erfolg :)

Hi guys,

a few of you have started to wonder what happend to me. Thanks for your concern.
I am healthy, have gained the customary 5 Corona Kg weight and I am doing fine otherwise..

However the above has done something to my mind.  Lockdown with very little interaction to other people. No business meetings in interesting places throughout Europe. 2 Skype birthdays without real celebration. It can all get you down and thinking about the important things in life.

Money is not the answer, although it makes life easier. Health, family, friendships.......laughter gatherings with friends are the important factors in life!!

My father died 5 years ago of cancer to the brain, my brother has had prostate cancer and my brother in law will soon die from pancreatic cancer.  In December 2019 I therefore invested in a German Start-up that is now know the world over for having developped a vaccine to fight Corona. BioNTech.

When I was young I wanted to study biochemistry, but could not capture a place at a German University and there was no money to study abroad. Now, part of interest in the subject is reflected in what I carry in my portfolio.

During the past 12 months a have learnt sooo much about mRNA and the initially smaller investment in BNTX has outpaced even Aixtron. Today both carry the same weight in my portfolio but most of my attention is focussed on Corona and therfore BNTX.

What is happening at BNTX is sooooo fascinating even from a shear investment point of view it is like watchin a "Krimi" in real. Part 2 in a few minutes.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

a statement by Felix Grawert at the coffee table to CWL1 and me at the very end of the AGM in 2019.

virtual AGM in 2020 only
virtual AGM in 2021 only

which means no real interaction possible with management or IR. I had a Dr.  appointment and therefore could not attend the virtual 2021 AGM. However I listened to it afterwards and paged through the rpesentation.

It would be nice to meet a few - if not all - of you at the 2022 AGM in Aachen to share some stories, drinks and laughter. How does that sound?

Gruß
 baggo-mh

100% since last October what a ride!!

In the last 5 weeks 2 times hot stock at finanzen.net
"Der Aktionär" mit Kaufempfehlung gerade vor dem Start der Rally.

Guidance raise    I agree with fel216. Most likely not the last one or at least Aixtron will be able to beat it.

Best MDax Stock last week with 29,7% increase AIXTRON

Just when the bord showed € 22,80 "der Aktionär" published a message that they recommend a few interims profit taking moves.

Alex's bet for 5 bottles of Champagne if the shareprice reaches € 25 in 2021 is very welcome. Alex you will have to serve them at the AGM are we will have to come to visit you.

I was asked by people that work for BNTX what is happening at Aixtron.....   
Unfortunately I was vaccinated on Friday with Moderna (1st shot)

All the best for next week and stay healthy
 baggo-mh

 

2022 AGM sounds interesting and I hope Aixtron will create something spectacular by then to entice us there.

wie schön, dich endlich einmal wieder hier zu sehen und deine Worte zu lesen. Das kannst du gern hier und da auch wieder einmal etwas öfter machen. Du siehst, das Forum vermisst dich.

In etwa weiß ich Bescheid um deine Investments und dein Geschick, diese richtig einzusetzen und zu verwalten. Da wünsche ich dir weiterhin alles Glück dieser Welt!
Am 26. Juni fahre ich endlich wieder einmal (nach Corona?) in meine Heimatstadt Aachen. Freue mich darauf und werde ein paar Tage dort verbringen, um dann mit einer lieben Person zurück nach Tirol zu fahren.
Ob das im nächsten Jahr mit dem Besuch der HV in Aachen dann klappt, kann ich heute beim besten Willen noch nicht überschauen. Aber es wäre schön, dich und vielleicht ein paar andere dort zu treffen. Von mir aus auch bei ein, zwei Flaschen Champus, obwohl ich lieber Bier mag.

Noch etwas:
Das mit der bösen Serienerkrankung in deiner Familie hat mich echt bewegt. Traurig alles!
Und daraus lernen wir, dass Geld längst nicht das höchste Glück auf dieser Erde ist.
Du wirst sehen, dass du nach dieser schrecklichen Familientragödie der ERSTE bist, der diesen bösen Bann bricht!
Das wünsche ich dir aus ehrlichem Herzen und drücke dazu fest meine Daumen!!

Tschüss, mein Lieber
WAlex :)