weekly: DAX weekly is showing a good looking bar until now.
Pattern looks like it is about to change so no more alternation between bull and bear bar
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vnxB87H4/daily:
As you can see Dax reached its upper channel trendline and broke the neckline at 1185x. So the index might pause for a day or two. This doesn’t mean I will short. The dip will likely be a buy.
There are two possibilities in the coming days. In the 4h hours chart we reached a supply area. The highlighted area could cause some trouble for further rising prices. A failure test to the upside (which also includes an overshoot of that area) could be used to enter some shorts. A pinbar spike or an engulfing bar that covers this zone would be an entry trigger.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bcc3OFxv/KEINE BLINDEN SHORTS. EINFACH REINSHORTEN IST __________(kann sich jeder was aussuchen)
Dax is now up 5 days in a row. In the past year this caused some short term problems for the bulls.
Over the last 1 year, there have been 2 observations where the DAX Consecutive Up/Down Days (Close - Prev. Close) was at the level of 5.
After 5 days, the DAX returned an average of -0.35%, with the return being positive in 50% of the observations.
During the 5 days:
Positive returns occured in 50% of the observations. The highest average return of 0.12% occurred after an average of 4.00 days.
Negative returns occured in 100% of the observations. The lowest average return of -0.93% occurred after an average of 2.50 days.
Over 1 year, the total return was -0.70%, while the passive return for the DAX was -0.85%.
A longer backtest (5 years) increased the odds for bulls slightly. Don’t forget that those moves are often a sign of strong momentum.
Over the last 5 years, there have been 22 observations where the DAX Consecutive Up/Down Days (Close - Prev. Close) was at the level of 5.
After 5 days, the DAX returned an average of 0.09%, with the return being positive in 50% of the observations.
During the 5 days:
Positive returns occured in 68% of the observations. The highest average return of 0.68% occurred after an average of 3.18 days.
Negative returns occured in 68% of the observations. The lowest average return of -0.95% occurred after an average of 2.73 days.
Over 5 years, the total return was 1.98%, while the passive return for the DAX was 23.59%.
Price seems to recapture its ma200. In the past this has led to some whipsaw around those price levels (see circles).
PS: The dip will be a buy anyway
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