Weak Q3p amid early UCL exit

Sales declined 16.1% yoy to € 125m (eNuW: € 137m), with the shortfall almost entirely attributable to the early UCL exit in February. TV Marketing bore the brunt, falling 27.3% yoy to € 46.8m (eNuW: € 49.3m), a result of the absence of the associated UEFA premium payments (€ 11m). Match operations also declined 3% to € 19.7m (eNuW: € 20.3m) despite the same amount of home games (9), however we saw a comparably low attendance (76k) in the Atalanta match. Conference, Catering & Others (-20.4% to € 10.9m; eNuW: € 12.0m ) and Merchandising (-15.3% to € 8.3m; eNuW: € 11.0m) also declined, while Advertising held up comparably well (-3.4% to € 39.2m; eNuW: € 44.0m).

On the bottom-line, Q3 EBITDA fell to € 12.4m (prior year: € 29.6m; eNuW: € 13.2m), implying a margin of 9.9% (-9.9pp yoy). The decline was further compounded by a near-absent transfer result of only € 0.2m in the quarter (prior year: € 12.6m). On the cost side, personnel expenses improved meaningfully to € 68.3m (-15.7% yoy), reflecting lower variable bonus payments tied to the UCL exit, which provided at least a partial offset to the revenue headwinds. Other operating expenses also declined to € 37.4m (prior year: € 43.2m), consistent with the lower activity level in the quarter. Looking at the 9M picture, things are considerably more constructive as cumulative EBITDA rose 6.6% yoy to € 94.1m, underpinned by a strong transfer result of € 55.1m for the nine-month period (+€ 20.3m yoy), confirming that the full-year trajectory remains on track despite the Q3 noise. The company's FY25/26 net income guidance of € -22 to -12m remains intact, and we continue to position ourselves at the more constructive end of that range (eNuW: € -9.3m)

Looking at the on-pitch performance, BVB meanwhile secured 2nd place in the Bundesliga, guaranteeing UCL participation for the next season. In our view, this is the key financial read-through from the current season, as UCL revenues alone account for an estimated € 78m in TV Marketing sales in a typical round of 16 campaign (c. 16% of group sales), roughly 5x what the club would generate in the Europa League. With qualification now secured, the financial foundation for FY26/27 is firmly in place, and we expect the club to enter the summer transfer window from a position of strength, both in terms of squad quality and financial flexibility. With the communicated departures of veteran players like Brandt, Süle or Özcan, the club is also set for a, in our view, well needed squad rejuvenation this summer. The resulting wage bill reduction should provide meaningful headroom to reinvest in younger, high-potential talent in line with BVB's proven Scout & Develop philosophy - a strategy that has historically generated substantial transfer returns and should continue to do so in the seasons ahead.

Action. We reduce estimates to reflect the weaker than expected Q3p and also apply a slightly more conservative forecast.

Reiterate BUY with a new PT of € 5.00 based on DCF.