Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

16.12.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name: ZEAL Network SE

ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 16.12.2025

Target price: EUR 67.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

No Q4 peak jackpot, expect EBITDA guidance beat

* Jackpot situation does not allow for a Q4 peak jackpot.

* Q4 sales estimate slightly lowered, but marketing expense even more

* EBITDA guidance beat now likely

Jackpot situation does not allow for a Q4 peak jackpot. With the EJ

currently at EUR 22m (peak: EUR 120m, c. 10 more draws needed) and the Lotto

6/49 at EUR 31m (peak: EUR 50m, c. 5-8 more draws needed), neither the EJ nor

Lotto 6/49 are able to reach a peak jackpot this year. Therefore, we adjust

our Q4 estimates accordingly:

Q4 sales estimate slightly lowered. Peak jackpots are the key driver of

incremental user activity at ZEAL, which can be observed in higher number of

monthly active users (MAUs). During Q3'25 (2x peak jackpot), the MAUs jumped

26% yoy to 1.69m (vs. 1.3m in Q3'24 with 0x peak jackpots). Now, with 0x

peak jackpots in Q4'25e, we expect a sequential decline in user activity to

1.505m MAUs (implied average of 1.56m for FY'25e). Previously, we had

expected a slightly higher activity rate of ZEAL's customer base (eNuW old:

1.565m), which is why we lower our Q4 sales estimate to EUR 53m (eNuW old: EUR

55m) which nonetheless still implies a guidance reach at the top-end at EUR

215m (eNuW).

Much less Q4 marketing spending now expected. With no peak jackpots in Q4,

we also expect ZEAL to adjust Q4 marketing spending accordingly by 5m to EUR

15m (eNuW old: EUR 20m) which should yield a 33.5% Q4 EBITDA margin, in line

with 9M of 33.3%.

Against this backdrop, an EBITDA guidance beat seems likely now. With a Q4

EBITDA estimate of EUR 18m, we imply a FY'25e EBITDA of EUR 72m (eNuW old: EUR

68m), which is 6% above the upper guidance end.

No more margin downside, only upside from jackpots. In the past, there was

always a trade-off between profitability and growth, especially during peak

jackpot phases. Now, with MAUs well above the 1.5m mark, ZEAL has reached

critical mass and enough operating leverage, that the higher sales from the

strong user activity overcompensate any additional marketing spending.

Effectively, strong jackpot phases do not weigh on margins anymore, but

actually increase profitability. This was already observed in the thus far

unmachted Q4'24, where user activity skyrocketed and the EBITDA margin

jumped to 40% (vs. c. 30% on average per quarter), despite a 275% yoy

increase in marketing spending.

Against this backdrop, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a slightly

higher PT of EUR 67.00 (old EUR 66.00), based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=9d795a2c767e299f11f2359098e75127

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