Original-Research: MLP SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

02.02.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name: MLP SE

ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 12

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

2026 to make the growth run-rate visible, chg.

- analyst change -

2025 should come in solid, but momentum has likely been capped by an

unfavourable mix (below-normal performance fees, real-estate restructuring

and softer interest income). With these drags fading and comps getting

easier, 2026 should be the year where MLP's underlying growth run-rate

becomes more visible again. The improving setup is backed by a diversified

advice platform and a large recurring revenue base (c.68% of sales), all

supporting our BUY recommendation.

Looking at Q4 25, sales are expected to increase 2.4% yoy to EUR 298m (eCons:

EUR 316m) supported by ongoing strength in wealth management (eNuW: +8% yoy

before performance fees) and with P&C insurance premium volumes expected to

grow steadily at c. 8% yoy. Notably, the increasing use of AI positions MLP

as a pioneer in automated claims handling in P&C, delivering tangible

benefits across stakeholders: customers benefit from significantly faster

claims processing (end-to-end settlement possible within minutes), MLP

consultants from improved service quality backed by centralised

capabilities, and MLP itself from a leaner cost base following the

termination of an external call centre and lower personnel requirements

(previously directed at these tasks).

Despite weakening mix-effects, Q4 25 adj. EBIT looks set to rise 18% yoy to

EUR 33.9m, with the underlying margin seen to expand 1.6pp yoy. The

improvement is driven by efficiency gains across personnel (eNuW: -1.3% yoy)

and other operating expenses that largely reflect IT and consulting (eNuW:

-7.3% yoy), in line with Q3 trends. The adjustment to EBIT reflects an

expected EUR 8m in goodwill impairments, following MLP's decision to abandon

new real estate development projects (another EUR 4m of goodwill are at risk,

well highlighted by MLP, in our view).

Into 2026, momentum should improve, led by P&C insurance, where strong

current trends and a seasonally important Q1 provide early visibility. In

addition, growing deposits at stable ECB rates should support interest

income and, separately, performance fees should slowly trend towards their

historical avg. of c. EUR 25m (vs. EUR 7m in 2025, eNuW). All, while EBIT

margins are set to expand as incremental margins remain high (eNuW: c. 28%

2025e to 2026e), underpinning our confidence in the group's mid-term targets

(eNuW: adj. EBIT CAGR of 15% 2025-28e).

Lastly, MLP offers an attractive dividend yield of c. 5%, well covered by

its cash generation (FCF in 2025e: EUR 65m, eNuW). This provides downside

support as earnings visibility improves into 2026e.

BUY, PT EUR 12.00 (old: EUR 12.50), based on Residual Income.

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Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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