Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. (von GBC AG): Buy

Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. - from GBC AG

20.08.2026 / 10:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of GBC AG to Almonty Industries Inc.

Company Name: Almonty Industries Inc.

ISIN: CA0203987072

Reason for the research: Research Note

Recommendation: Buy

Target price: 30.00 USD

Target price on sight of: 31.12.2027

Last rating change:

Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

Sangdong enters production: exceptional tungsten pricing and expanded

offtake

Almonty has reached the most important milestone in its history. Sangdong is

no longer only a financed construction project: the plant began processing

stockpiled run-of-mine ore in July 2026 after first ore was delivered in

December 2025. The investment case has therefore moved from construction and

financing risk toward the more measurable questions of throughput, grade,

recovery, concentrate quality, customer acceptance and cash conversion. This

is an important de-risking step and creates the basis for Almonty to develop

into one of the largest non-Chinese tungsten suppliers.

The market backdrop remains exceptionally supportive. As of 14 August 2026,

the Fastmarkets Rotterdam APT price averaged US$3,087.50/MTU, within a range

of US$2,900-3,275/MTU and around 9.4 times the level recorded at the

beginning of 2025. China continues to account for approximately 79% of

global mine supply, while Western inventories remain limited and defense

sourcing requirements are becoming increasingly stringent. Against this

backdrop, Sangdong's scale, high grade, long mine life and location in South

Korea position it as a strategically important source of tungsten within an

allied supply chain. Once the operating ramp-up has been demonstrated, these

attributes should justify a valuation premium relative to conventional

single-asset mining companies.

Commercial visibility has also improved materially. The amended agreement

with Global Tungsten & Powders increases contracted Phase 1 volume by 40%,

extends the term to 21 years and improves pricing and payability by 6.3%.

Approximately 90% of expected Phase 1 output is covered. At current APT

reference levels, the contracted volume corresponds to indicative annual

revenue of around US$490m. This remains a price-linked run rate rather than

guaranteed fixed revenue, but the agreement substantially reduces placement

and qualification risk while preserving commodity price exposure.

The US$800m convertible notes are treated as debt in the equity bridge. The

initial conversion price is approximately US$27.40 per share, while the

associated capped-call transactions are expected to offset the conversion

spread above principal up to the US$41.36 cap price, subject to their terms.

As our US$30.00 target lies within this range, we model no incremental net

dilution from the notes and fully reflect their principal amount as debt.

The valuation uses 288.48m basic shares. Outstanding warrants and options

are valued separately using Black-Scholes, and their US$30.11m economic

value is deducted once from equity value. RSUs and if-converted shares are

excluded from the denominator.

We forecast revenue of US$365.9m in 2026, US$1.32bn in 2027 and US$1.49bn in

2028. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach US$329.7m, US$1.22bn and

US$1.30bn, while free cash flow increases to US$95.8m, US$694.9m and

US$958.7m. The step-up reflects a partial-year Sangdong contribution in

2026, a much broader operating contribution and Phase 2 volume in 2027, and

a peak ramp profile in 2028. The very high initial margins are supported by

extraordinary tungsten pricing and the quality of the orebody, but they also

make the forecast highly sensitive to recovery, payability and APT

normalization.

Further upside should be earned through operating evidence. Stable monthly

throughput, improving recovery, customer-approved concentrate, recurring

shipments and visible cash receipts would validate the forecast and reduce

the execution discount. The main risks are a slower commissioning curve,

lower-than-expected grade or recovery, APT normalization, customer

concentration, capital deployment outside the forecast and dilution if the

convertible or equity incentives develop less favorably than assumed. In our

view, the balance of these factors remains clearly positive, while the

shares retain a high-risk classification.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=416def157f0b055af4d00b6f92a8a613

Contact for questions:

GBC AG

Halderstraße 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR

Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher

Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher

Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

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Completion: 19.08.2026 (16:00)

First distribution: 20.08.2026 (10:00)

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