Nimbus, StephanG, schaut mal hier:
www.clusterstock.com/2008/7/...eholders-screwed-no-matter-what
www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/...uble-us-public-debt/3700
Die Aussage, dass sich die US-Staatsschulden durch Übernahme der Fannie/Freddie-Garantien verdoppeln, stammt - WÖRTLICH - aus der NEW YORK TIMES (zitiert im 2. Artikel unten). Vielleicht sollte Ihr Euch mal mit einem empörten Leserbrief an die dortige Wirtschafts-Redaktion wenden ; -))
Fannie (FNM), Freddie (FRE) Bailout Options: Shareholders Screwed No Matter What (FNM, FRE)
Henry Blodget | Jul 11, 08 7:03 AM
fanfred.jpgFannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) won't be allowed to fail, and Bush Administration officials are discussing ways to make sure they won't. But none of the options look good for shareholders. The stockholders' only hope at this point is that the Fannie / Freddie collapse is just a market panic and that the two companies are adequately capitalized. This seems unlikely.
Two specific bailout options under consideration (per the NYT) are:
* Government takeover. The companies would be put in a "conservatorship" and run by their regulator (OFHEO). In this scenario, the stocks of FNM and FRE would be "worth little or nothing," says the NYT. Also, any losses on mortgages they own or guarantee would be paid by taxpayers.
* Explicit guarantee of the $5 trillion of mortgages owned or guaranteed by FNM and FRE. This would set a new standard for the word "bailout." It would also basically double the size of the US's public debt. FNM and FRE could conceivably do relatively well in this scenario, but it's unlikely that the government would allow them to do so. Given the backlash the Fed and Treasury were hit with after "bailing out" Bear Stearns at $2/share, it's unlikely FNM and FRE shareholders would get much.
Other possibilities that are likely to be considered (from this WSJ overview):
* Fed buys portion of FRE/FNM debt or mortgage-backed securities. This would reduce their leverage and bolster their capital ratios. Again, in theory, stock investors could be okay, but we suspect the Fed would only agree to do this on the condition that shareholders got hammered (as with Bear Stearns.)
* Fed could make huge, long-term loans to the companies. Again, in theory, stock investors could do okay. But optics are important, so they most likely won't.
* Treasury buys FNM and FRE stock. This is a partial version of the takeover scenario above: The government just makes a massive equity infusion to shore up capital. This would lead to major dilution of current shareholders, but likely not a total wipeout.
* Equity investment by private investors. It's still possible that Fannie and Freddie could survive without a government lifeline. This would be the best option for current shareholders, but they would still get socked by dilution. Given the amount of capital needed and the panic around these companies, it's also unlikely that they would be able to raise the money quickly and without the dilution being severe.
The only scenario in which FNM and FRE investors don't get further bludgeoned, in other words, is the "just a temporary market panic" scenario. In this scenario, FNM and FRE's insistence that they have plenty of capital is not a hallucination, the market realizes its error, and the stocks skyrocket. Investors who take this view include Bill Miller, the once-legendary Legg Mason fund manager who has been buying FRE all the way down.
Fannie and Freddie Bailout Would Double US Public Debt
Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:20pm CDT •
This one will take a while to digest.
According to The New York Times, aside from the genius plan of placing stricken mortgage lenders Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac under conservatorship and guaranteeing with taxpayers money the companies’ massive losses, Bush administration officials “considered calling for legislation that would offer an explicit government guarantee on the $5 trillion of debt owned or guaranteed by the companies.”
This, however, says the Times is “a far less attractive option” because “it would effectively double the size of the public debt.”
Double the size of the public debt! By bailing out two companies that engaged in irresponsible lending! Could the Times not have any stronger language to describe this other then “less attractive”? How about “completley freakin’ insane”?
Yesterday, Dan Denning discussed the ‘doomsday scenario’ of the US government having to bailout Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).
Dan says Fannie and Freddie are already technically insolvent. But if Congress decides to fully guarantee Fannie and Freddie debt, it could pop the market for U.S. Treasury bonds.
Fannie and Freddie —are surely doomed now. First, U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress both are well capitalized. Haven’t we heard this one before?
Isn’t this what Bear Stearns said before it collapsed? Didn’t Citigroup (C) say it was well capitalised, and then ask for more money? Why would anyone believe these investment bankers anymore when they tell the public they are well capitalised? It’s almost like the moment a CEO of a company says it’s “well capitalised” you should be prepared for a nasty shock.
We don’t mean to alarmist about the GSEs. But as we explained to a colleague over the weekend, our job here at the Old Hat Factory is not to tell you what you may already know, or can read in the papers. Our job is to tell you about the low-probability but high magnitude investment events that could affect your money. And just to be clear, the collapse of Bear Stearns and the whole credit crisis would look like mere child’s play should a genuine crisis unfold in the quality of the debt owned and guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
It would be the equivalent of that absurd scenario in that global warming movie a few years ago, where the Gulf Stream stops flowing and the entire Northern hemisphere enters a new ice age…in a matter of days. The insolvency of the GSEs is as close as you’re ever going to want to get to Financial Doomsday and live to tell about it.
Yet just yesterday Former Fed Governor William Poole told the world what many have been saying for awhile now: if you use conventional accounting methods, Fannie and Freddie are already technically insolvent. Poole said, “Congress ought to recognize that these firms are insolvent, that it is allowing these firms to continue to exist as bastions of privilege, financed by the taxpayer”.
In simple terms, Poole points out that Freddie Mac owes US$5.2 billion more than its assets are currently worth. Shareholders took note. Fannie shares fell 14% in New York trading while sister Freddie fell 22%.
What’s really bad news for these companies is that two U.S. Senators stood up to tell the world that these two companies are “too big to fail.” Republican Presidential nominee John McCain told reporters, “They must not fail,” and that they “are vital to Americans’ ability to own their own homes.”
Later, the distinguished windbag Senator from the state of New York, Charles Schumer said, “Markets should be assured that the federal government will stand by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.” He said the firms are “are too important to go under,” and Congress “will act quickly”.
Who do these men think they are, Moses parting the Red Sea. We’ve never seen public servant or elected politician perform a miracle. Acts of God that defy the laws of nature are generally reserved to…you know…God. Saying something “must not fail” doesn’t mean you can prevent it.
But it’s Friday. So how about a hand for the unbridled idiocy of American policy makers! How about a standing ovation for the dizzying heights of audacity reached by people so far out of touch with reality that they believe they can defy the laws of economics? Hip hip! Hooray!
What exactly do you think the U.S. Congress can do to save the GSEs? By our reckoning, it can provide the GSEs with cash to continue to meet operating expenses. There are only two other options. And let’s be clear about this: if the U.S. Government chooses either of the remaining options, it will be a virtual death blow for the U.S. dollar the rest of this year and pop the largest remaining sub-bubble in the credit market.
What can Congress do? First, it can ask the Fed to extend its securities lending program to the GSEs. Fannie and Freddie would be able to exchange impaired mortgage-backed bonds for liquid U.S. Treasuries. Granted, the Fed is running low on Treasuries already, having lent billions to its buddies on Wall Street. But that is a great thing about being a central bank with a monopoly on money. The Fed can simply print more money to buy more Treasuries (although the U.S. Treasury Department would have to create new debt to sell to the Fed).
The other option for U.S. policy makers is to clearly state that Fannie and Freddie bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. You can take that for what it’s worth. We wonder how the bond market would take it. How much faith and credit does the world currently have in the financial position of the United States?
Fannie and Freddie have guaranteed more than US$5.2 trillion in mortgage-backed bonds and securitised mortgages. Who owns them? As we said the other day…everyone! Central banks…pension funds…insurance companies. The big and terrifying fact for the world’s financial system is that GSE debt makes up some portion of the assets of many financial institutions and investment funds.
The U.S. government can move to stabilise that market by guaranteeing the debt. But we believe that if it does so, it will lead directly to the popping of the other big remaining bubble in the credit markets: the U.S. Treasury market (bonds and notes).
In the sixty three years since the end of World War Two, there hasn’t been a much safer investment on the planet than U.S. Treasury bonds, at least according to conventional wisdom. But the credit rating agencies, for what they’re worth, would have to take a serious look at downgrading the credit quality of sovereign American debt if the U.S. government changed its implied backing of GSE debt to an explicit backing.
The consequences of a (much deserved) lower credit rating for the U.S. government are too long to go into here. Suffice it to say the bond market won’t wait. The trouble is, what do you do with your money if government bonds aren’t safe? Cash is one answer. Owning some form of your wealth in precious metals is another. Gold should regain ground against oil in the second half if the GSE story continues to unfold in nightmare fashion.
In any event, it hasn’t quite come to that. Congress, Obama, and McCain must all be hoping that the GSE problem just goes away, at least until after the election. But the market will not wait. It could be a brutal summer.
Source: Fannie and Freddie Are Surely Doomed 
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