Unemployment Picture Isn't Rosy - Bulls stay away

Employment rose by 57,000 jobs in September, according to the Labor
Department's monthly report released today. That's a decent gain, there's no doubt about it. But that certainly doesn't solve the labor problems pounding away at the US economy, not by a long shot ...

Jobs at manufacturers were chopped by 29,000 in September - marking the 38th CONSECUTIVE decrease. This vital sector continues to get pummeled - and there's very little light at the end of the tunnel.

Temporary help hiring was up in September, but that's not necessarily an indicator of improving labor conditions: After all, it's much easier for companies to pullback on temporary help, rather than permanent workers, when things turn sour. Plus, if companies REALLY believed in good times ahead, they'd be adding PERMANENT workers, not temporary ones.

Average hourly earnings fell for the first time in FOURTEEN years. That's a stand-out stat. If it continues, negative implications for income - a big driver of economic growth - are right around the corner.

The economy needs to add about 100,000 jobs per month to keep the unemployment rate steady on average. That kind of positive trend is a long, long way off.

The US economy has lost a whopping 2.7 million jobs since March 2001, the start of a recession that "ended" in November of that year. That's a lot of ground to make up - and it's not going to happen overnight.

Bottom line: One month does not make a trend - only time will tell if September's improvement will last.





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