Ambac slumps on plan to raise capital; CEO leaves
Bond insurer slashes dividend; to suffer losses on mortgage securities
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ambac Financial Group said on Wednesday that it will try to raise at least $1 billion in new capital, slashed its dividend by two-thirds and announced that Chief Executive Robert Genader is leaving the struggling bond insurer immediately.
Ambac also said it will report a huge fourth-quarter loss as the market value of some mortgage-related exposures drops and it sets aside money to cover actual losses on some types of mortgage securities.
Ambac shares slumped 39% to close at $12.97. The company has lost 40% of its market value so far in 2008, adding to big declines from last year. Rival bond insurer MBIA Inc.
also fell on Wednesday, losing 17% to close at $13.40.
"Nearly every day brings more negative news," Egan-Jones Ratings Co., a rating agency paid by investors rather than issuers, said in a note to clients on Wednesday. "We estimate Ambac will need over $5 billion in additional capital."
Some analysts warned that Ambac may struggle to raise even $1 billion. See full story.
Bond insurers agree to pay principal and interest when due in a timely manner in the event of a default. It's a $2.3 trillion business that offers a credit-rating boost to municipalities and other issuers that don't have AAA ratings. Without those top ratings, their business models may be imperiled.
Most bond insurers are trying to raise new capital after expanding too far into mortgage-backed securities and complex structured-credit products like collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) in the midst of the real estate bubble, stretching business models unsuited to the task.
Rating agencies have warned that unless Ambac and rivals boost capital, they may lose their AAA ratings. Fitch Ratings told Ambac last month that it needs to increase capital by $1 billion by February to avoid a downgrade. See full story.
Egan-Jones already has a BB, non-investment grade, rating on Ambac. That's well below the AAA ratings of more established rating agencies including Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch.
Ambac said on Wednesday that it will try to raise at least $1 billion by selling new equity and equity-linked securities. The company may also raise more capital by selling new debt securities and buying more reinsurance. Ambac has already bought reinsurance covering a $29 billion portfolio of risks from rival Assured Guaranty.
The quarterly dividend will drop to 7 cents a share, two-thirds below the previous payout of 21 cents a shares, Ambac also said.
CEO Genader, who has worked at Ambac for more than 20 years, will retire effective immediately. The company named current director Michael Callen as interim chairman and CEO.
Actual losses
Ambac said it may post a fourth-quarter net loss of up to $32.83 a share after cutting the fair market value of its credit derivative portfolio by $5.4 billion, before taxes.
Most of these mark-to-market losses won't end up as actual losses, as long as further credit impairment doesn't happen, Ambac added.
But Ambac also said on Wednesday that it will likely suffer actual losses. The mark-to-market adjustments include a $1.1 billion credit impairment from the deterioration of some CDOs backed by other types of asset-backed securities, the company explained. Ambac also said it's setting aside $143 million, before tax, to cover losses on securities backed by home equity lines of credit and second-lien home loans.
The company said it will likely report an operating loss of $5.80 a share in the fourth quarter. Operating results exclude mark-to-market gains and losses and other items, Ambac noted.
The operating loss estimate may come as a surprise to some analysts, even those who have turned bearish on Ambac since the mortgage meltdown accelerated in the summer.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial were expecting the company to earn $1.68 a share in the fourth quarter on average. Ken Zerbe, an analyst at Morgan Stanley who's been predicting trouble at Ambac for several months, forecast quarterly earnings of $1.89 a share earlier this month. See full story.
Ambac said it's committed to maintaining its triple-A financial strength and, that by raising at least $1 billion in capital, it expects to meet Fitch Ratings' current triple-A capital requirements.
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