Rumors of Chinese Revaluation are circulating (!)

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Rumors of Chinese Revaluation are circulating (!)

 
08.10.04 12:54
Rumors of eminent Chinese Revaluation are circulating

Also key are Fed's McTeer's comments yesterday about weak USD.


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October 8, 2004 - SPECIAL UPDATE

The USD weakening this morning may be partially due to a rumor on the loose about a possibly behind the scenes deal between the US and China concerning the revaluation of the renminbi.  Also, one news item that slipped under my radar this morning were comments last night by Fed's McTeer. He spoke in very stark terms about the US current account deficit and that only a serious devaluation in the USD would help ameliorate this situation and bring the current account back into balance. This serious devaluation could occur of course, with a chinese renminbi (CNY) revaluation or full float. The noise level is increasing dramatically on this issue.

All in all, this together with the US payrolls data may make for an explosive market today, with EUR/USD higher and USD/JPY potentially markedly lower. The payrolls data may even play second fiddle.

Be careful out there.

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www.saxobank.com
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Devisen-Update

 
08.10.04 12:56
Market Commentary:

Another day and another round of rangebound action for EUR/USD. Scanning back over multi-year charts, this is clearly one of the most low-volatility, trendless areas in EUR/USD and USD/JPY since the beginning of currency trading 30+ years ago - a very frustrating environment indeed for traders. The professional currency hedge funds out there are falling like flies.


But the event risks are lining up in a way now that suggest we will finally break out of this torpor soon. The upcoming presidential election and the final employment report before that event are two important potential catalysts, as is the continuing spike in oil prices. With a global slowdown likely due to the last-named phenomenon (as well as a drying up in liquidity from the go-go tax break, free-money years of 2002-present), and the continued balance of payment problems in the US, it's hard to understand how the US Dollar can do anything but fall. The question only begs whether the path to that fall will be a rocky one, or whether we're on the verge of a big and clean break higher in EUR/USD. I vote for the latter - but seeing is believing.

More news on the possibility of a bad employment report this Friday. Even the White House economist admitted that large hurricanes can have a surprisingly large affect on the payrolls data for the month. This seems plausible as the weekly jobless numbers did tick up heavily in September. At the same time, the old numbers discussed in a previous column will likely be adjusted heavily upwards in the BLS's yearly statistical adjustment - so some may try to find some spin on this.

Technical Comments:

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Parocorp:

Ihr solltet das lesen, Freunde...

 
08.10.04 12:58
The USD weakening this morning may be partially due to a rumor on the loose about a possibly behind the scenes deal between the US and China concerning the revaluation of the renminbi.

auf deutsch: hinter den kulissen verhandeln die amis und chinesen über die aufwertung der chinesischen währung!!!
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Parocorp:

= USD short & EUR/USD strong buy ! o. T.

 
08.10.04 13:00
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Kicky:

Mc Teer warnt vor Dollarfall wg. Rekorddefizit

 
08.10.04 13:05
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar weakened against the euro and the yen after Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert McTeer said the current-account deficit, at a record $166 billion, will cause the U.S. currency to fall.

While overseas investors now ``finance'' the current-account gap, ``theoretically some day that process will come to an end, the flows will turn against us and there will be a crisis that will result in rapidly rising interest rates and a rapidly depreciating dollar,'' McTeer said in a speech in New York, the third Fed official in a month to link the dollar and the deficit.

hab noch was gefunden zum Schulden Bubble:
Rumors of Chinese Revaluation are circulating (!) 1667594
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Tazzel:

Bin mit TB2KB0 kk ,94 dabei.Thx Paro o. T.

 
08.10.04 13:28
TB2KB0 kk ,94 dabei.Thx Paro o. T.">
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Parocorp:

1,10 im geld, congrats tazzel !! o. T.

 
08.10.04 14:55
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Parocorp:

EUR/USD long rennt 1,15 ! o. T.

 
08.10.04 16:10
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Anzeige: Der Uran-Megatrend 2025

Aktie mit Knalleffekt: Uran-Geheimtipp zündet das nächste Bohr-Update
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USD bricht weiter ein... Schein bei 1,17 o. T.

 
08.10.04 17:33
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