19:00 12/05/2011 Perspective: Reasons to be cheerful
I will try and be as balanced as possible with my analysis, but would like to instill a little well deserved optimism back into the Range cause. After taking what seems to be a long, drawn out, torturous beating over the last few weeks, it's worth baring in mind the following:
Current SP of 17.25p is more or less, probably going to be the floor unless we hit a series of dusters, which statistically is improbable given the success rate of certain surveys in certain exploratory regions. Back in November when SP was 6p-7p, PL himself said that we were underpinned by Texas production flow alone and we were 'free carried' for the rest of our exploration upside. This was before the 500% flow increase at NCR which brings our underpinning pretty much to where we are priced today. So that still rings true, that we could carry on producing at this rate forever and still justify the current SP.
Now, bearing that in mind Trinidad is producing 700bpd (now 100% ours) with a 36 month target of 4000bpd on current production areas alone, without mentioning the Herrera formations with upside potential 600m barrels at a conservative estimate of 10,000bpd, where would you value our SP including this? Remembering also that this is a completely agreeable and stable area with infrastructure in place and complete ownership of extraction assets. This alone would highly impact our SP to an extent that I would not like to guess.
Then you bring in Georgia. The infrastructure is all in place, roads, piping, markets are already there. The political climate there is very favourable these days, having not heard a peep from the Odessians in several years. Considering this is a potential play in excess of a billion barrels, if successful then it would dwarf our current underpinning production flows.
Then there's the Puntland operation. This has been delayed for several years now but is looking likely to be spudded in July and then September, so by November latest, we will know where we stand on this one. Independently assessed reserve estimation is 20 BILLION barrels of which I believe Range own a 20% stake. This would dwarf Georgia, which already would dwarf our underpin.
This is the potential of Range. I know of no other oil explorer/producer with such value propostion. This has an absolute upside potential of being worth in excess of £5 per share in the next 3 years without taking into consideration future exploration licenses.
I must stress that this is if everything falls into place, which it invariably doesn't, but statistically, and with our underpinning, and the fact the company that performed the helium surveys in Georgia has an 80% success rate, I think that it is not unrealistic to expect half of that potential upside to be realised within 3 years.
I'd be keen to hear if anyone takes issue to any of my points or has anything to add. I feel this will remind everyone just why they invested in this great, one-of-a-kind company in the first place.
GLA
P.S- My room is absolutely fantastic! By Great_Room