Anlässlich des Analysten Calls vom 9.2.2016 zum 2015er Ergebnis, ein Auszug des ICL CEO, Stefan Borgas, zum derzeitigen Kalimarkt und dem 2016er Ausblick:
Let me just spend two or three minutes on the potash markets, because you are going to ask the question anyway. This is a weak pricing environment. We expect this weak pricing environment to be at least in the discussions dominating the negotiation phases throughout the first quater. The spot deals are weak in the first weeks of the year. We do not participate in this. We are not supplying to these low-price markets at all, for example Brazil. But, the industry also seems to have reacted. If you look at the announcements in the last few weeks, about 6 million tonnes of capacity have been taken out of the market, with Mosaic, PCS, Belaruskali, Intrepid Potash and ourselves announcing curtailment or shutdowns. So, there's a shortage of supply that has started to come.
The China negotiations, which usually always open the pricing rounds all over the world, will be late this year. Chinese New Year has just only started. Personally, I expect the negotiations not to be finished before end of March, maybe beginning of April. This is the usual game we have every year and I can only hope that the industry is going to stay calm. We, ICL, for sure are going to wait until the big suppliers have settled their contracts and then we will do what we always do.
What this means is that the supply in the first quater to China are going to be very, very low. There are enough inventories to carry the Chinese through the first quarter, so there will be no shipments. There will be no shipments to India either, because the Indians have followed this behavior. So the potash market in terms of actual sales will be low. We are very relaxed about this because the world is going to need to fertilize. This will deplete inventories and this will then help the supply in the second, third and fourth quater of this year. So it doesn't make us very nervous. It's just a matter of cash flow management from the first quarter into the other three quarters.
(Quelle:)
repo.icl-group.com/Lists/...s/Transcript%20Q4%2015%20final.pdf
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