Beitrag kommt von Country Writer und wurde bei HC gepostet
Hello Cab74, pinto, clings and many others...
I have taken the trouble to write this after going through the quarterly and some discussion with those that 'know' too.
This was an excellent result for the commissioning phase where you cannot use ROM ore in the mill. This is a highly complex subject and a complex mill too. Peter W would never use anything more than low grade stockpile initially and then has ramped up the grade as the bugs were ironed out of the processing line. This = higher costs. Recovery rates also gradually increase as they tweak the mill = higher initial costs.
There were three major lightening strikes which clogged up the mill during the quarter further halting production = higher costs. Higher cost created by start / stop ramp up it is called commissioning and difficult to do - all in all a fantastic job has been done.
Dev and Capex included the Percy drive and opening up Emperass and The Mount so that figure will not be as high in the June qtr. Stope faces have been opened up for the next 6 months production with this spend as well so I don't see the beef as educational or fair on this point.
Forward looking statement 1 - expect 'manure' to happen this is a mine - period. 300kt of rock and dirt through a complex equipment line is not a simple task but at least lightening will be much less this quarter.
Forward looking statement 2 - 100kt La Mancha and 200kt FML ore this quarter at a probable recovery of 92% (still improving). FML to get 20% of the Toll Treatment. Their own grade should be around 4.2gpt and I have calculated with stoppages and recovery we might just see 25 - 26k oz gold again next quarter if no major manure happens.
Cash Op cost should be well under $750 per oz and they will be aiming to get under $700. Sell price this quarter will not be much different. Margins up then and so will cash in bank next time around. Reserves will increase gradually as I have said before - straight from the horses mouth this takes time guys. Lots of holes and lab results waiting etc takes time.
Share price being affected by unwind of carry trade due to high dollar and lack of differential on interest rates after the high dollar is factored. So capital goes out and AUD comes down and then it all comes back in again. Some will be in equities but not much by % however a bit of selling on a small stock creates pressure if holdings offshore want out.
Gold going up second half 2010 maybe even during the NHem summer for a change which would make Sept qtr. even better than June. Margin and cash will boom under these conditions if this eventuates.
All in all a very sound ex-speccy with a bright future but please understand their position and the business they are thriving in. Risk is greatly reduced for the enterprise by prudent management and experienced operational staff. SP risk another issue.
That's my 2c and 20 min worth for what it is worth to the readers eyes. Sorry if the tone is a little jaded I have my reasons but I did want to assist Management and the nice readers on this fine post a little if I could. Knowledge is power keep learning.
Cheers,
CW