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Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance


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Megamillion:

Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance

12
17.08.07 11:08
BB-Falle? Bullen oder Bärenfalle oder ist es gar keine Falle?

Zumindest ist der Dax weder zu tief noch zu hoch im Moment. Und solange an der Börse virtuelles Geld gehandelt wird sollte man sich klaren sein daß es kein zu hoch und zu tief gibt. Es geht immer tiefer bzw. höher als man denkt.

Die Hedgefonds und damit Banken in der Krise? Da lachen ja die Hühner! Wie kommt man an billiges Geld der EZB nachdem Japan und Asien die billig Kredite wegfallen? Jammern was das Zeug hält und eine Krise vorgaukeln welche vielleicht gar keine ist. Ich bin gespannt ob der Cash heute in den Indizes die Vorboten der Futures bestätigen und die Banken dann gesättigt den Shortsellern den Po versohlen.

Die Futuretrader in ASIEN haben heute ja mächtig Angst verbreitet die am Montag schon wieder Geschichte sein kann.

Also Ball flach halten und Korrektur hinnehmen und für langsamen Longpositionsaufbau nutzen.

Übrigens soll es im Moment noch paar Schnäppchen geben hab ich gehört.



Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115050
Antworten
Megamillion:

Alt aber aktueller denn je

2
17.08.07 11:58
1. Juni 2007 02:04, NZZ Online
Aktienrückkäufe bannen Übernahmegefahr
Aus Angst vor Finanzinvestoren reduzieren Unternehmen Barmittel

Aktienrückkäufe bannen Übernahmegefahr
Aus Angst vor Finanzinvestoren reduzieren Unternehmen Barmittel

feb. «Wohin nur mit dem vielen Geld?», ist zurzeit eine der Hauptfragen in den Management-Etagen vieler Unternehmen. Das hohe Weltwirtschaftswachstum von durchschnittlich 5% in den vergangenen fünf Jahren, kombiniert mit Kostensenkungsprogrammen der Konzerne, starken Kapitalmärkten und geringen Lohnsteigerungen, hat dafür gesorgt, dass viele Firmen geradezu im Geld schwimmen. Als Folge davon sind immer mehr Unternehmen zu einer Strategie gezwungen, die am Markt als «Re-Leveraging» der Bilanzen bezeichnet wird - die Erhöhung der Verschuldungsquote innerhalb eines «gesunden» Rahmens. Dies kann geschehen durch Fusionen und Übernahmen (M&A), hohe Ausschüttungen - oder durch Aktienrückkaufprogramme.

Vom «Luxusproblem» zum Problem
Letztgenannte waren in dieser Woche ein Hauptthema an den Börsen: So kündigte der deutsche Versorger E.On am Mittwoch an, eigene Aktien im Wert von 7 Mrd. Euro zurückkaufen zu wollen, woraufhin die Aktien des Energiekonzerns um 1,58% und am Donnerstag um weitere 4,12% zulegten. Auch in den USA bescherten Meldungen über Aktienrückkäufe den Börsen Kursgewinne. Innerhalb eines Tages kündigten das Pharma-Unternehmen Biogen, die Mediengesellschaft Viacom und der Computer-Konzern IBM milliardenschwere Aktienrückkaufprogramme an. Ebenfalls unter «Re-Leveraging» fällt die Mitteilung des niederländischen Technologiekonzerns ASML vom Donnerstag, 960 Mio. Euro an die Aktionäre auszuschütten - die Aktie legte um rund 7% zu.

Die Deutsche Bank hält das «Re-Leveraging» für einen der wichtigsten Treiber der Börsenkurse in diesem Jahr. Am Anfang habe er die Tatsache, dass die Unternehmen auf sehr grossen Mengen an Barmitteln sitzen, als «Luxusproblem» bewertet, sagt einer ihrer Analytiker. Mittlerweile sei die Entwicklung aber für viele Konzerne zu einem wirklichen Problem geworden. Sitzt ein Unternehmen nämlich auf einem zu hohen Cash-Bestand, gilt dessen Bilanz als ineffizient und das Kapital als nicht sinnvoll investiert. Ausserdem drückt der hohe Bargeldbestand auf die Finanzkennzahlen. Mit Aktienrückkäufen lässt sich die Profitabilität steigern, da sich der erzielte Gewinn eines Unternehmens dann auf weniger Aktien verteilt und dadurch der Gewinn pro Aktie steigt.

Steuerliche Vorteile
Im derzeitigen M&A-Boom locken als «ineffizient» geführt geltende Unternehmen schnell Private-Equity-Gesellschaften an. Laut dem Deutsche-Bank-Analytiker setzt dies die Manager in den Unternehmen unter enormen Druck. Sie stünden vor folgender Wahl: Entweder sie bringen die Bilanzen durch «Re-Leveraging» in Ordnung, oder Private-Equity-Fonds steigen in ihre Unternehmen ein und tun dies. So galt E.On nach der gescheiterten Übernahme des Wettbewerbers Endesa, für die das Management rund 40 Mrd. Euro bezahlen wollte, als mögliches Ziel für Finanzinvestoren. Auch die Münchener Rück habe aufgrund derselben Gefahr Anfang Mai ein Aktienrückkaufprogramm angekündigt, heisst es am Markt. Ein Finanzinvestor habe bereits mit dem Aufbau einer Position begonnen - dies habe das Management dazu bewogen, schnell einen Teil des vielen Geldes «loszuwerden».

Auch in der Schweiz boomt das «Re-Leveraging». Im vergangenen Jahr lag beispielsweise das Volumen von Aktienrückkäufen gemäss der Bank Vontobel bei 12,8 Mrd. Fr. Dies entspricht rund 1% der gesamten Börsenkapitalisierung. Damit stieg das Rückkauf-Volumen im Vergleich mit dem Jahr 2005 um 36%. An der Schweizer Börse haben in den vergangenen Jahren grosse Unternehmen wie beispielsweise Credit Suisse, Givaudan, Nestlé, Nobel Biocare, Novartis, Syngenta, Swatch, UBS und Zurich Financial Services Aktienrückkaufprogramme durchgeführt. Im März dieses Jahres erst kündigte der Rückversicherer Swiss Re ein solches Programm an. Laut einem Analytiker von Julius Bär sollten Anleger Aktienrückkäufe positiv sehen. Für sie seien die Programme steuerlich attraktiver als beispielsweise die Ausschüttung einer Sonderdividende. Ausserdem habe die Entwicklung meist positive Auswirkungen auf die Aktienkurse. In jedem Fall seien die Programme ein besserer Weg als überhastete, teure Akquisitionen.

Cash cash und nochmal cash und wenn die Kanonen donnern wird gekauft.

Sollten die erst einmal anfangen die Buyfast-Futures mit dem Cash zu untermauern dann sind 3% und mehr nach oben die Realität. Könnte mir bei Cashunterstützung 7400 und 13250 durchaus auch heute vorstellen.

Mal sehen wann die Kanonen aufhören und somit die Einstiege einläuten.



Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115064
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Megamillion:

Für Daytrader sehr interessanter Link

 
17.08.07 12:04
www.trader24.info/aktienmarkt/optionsindikatoren.html

Antworten
Megamillion:

Zu beachten und auch sehr interessant

 
17.08.07 12:13
Der VIX
Der VIX (Volatilitätsindex des CBOE,das sind Optionen auf den S&P)ist ein hervorragender Index für den Gesamtmarkt.Sein Wert zeigt die implizite Volatilität des Marktes für die nächsten 30 Kalendertage.
Steigt das Put/Call - Verhältnis,also der Pessimismus,dann fällt in der Regel der Markt,aber der VIX zeigt scharfe Ausschläge nach oben,da nervöse Anleger die Index - Puts hochtreiben,also nicht nur das Put - Volumen steigt an,sondern die Anleger bezahlen auch mehr für die Puts.
Die Extremwerte des VIX geben daher gute Kontrasignale,es spielt keine Rolle,welcher absolute Wert erreicht wird,es kommt auf den relativen an,daher benutzt man hier die Bollinger - Bänder für die täglichen VIX - Werte.Im Gegensatz zu den Standardabweichungsbändern werden hier zwei Standardabweichungen genommen,die man um den 21 - Tage - GD legt.Die Kaufsignale und die Verkaufssignale treten erst auf,wenn der VIX nach Überschreiten der Bänder wieder in diese zurückkehrt,die Kaufsignale am oberen Rand,die Short - Signale am unteren.
Man muß also die Spitze im VIX abwarten.Darüberhinaus kann man auch mit absoluten Werten für den VIX arbeiten und zwar dann,wenn er 20 überschreitet und dann von da aus wieder zurückfällt unter 20.Solche Bewegungen stimmen mit den größeren Markttiefs überein.

Dazu der passende Link:

www.cboe.com/framed/...title=CBOE%20-%20IVolatility%20Services

Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115070
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Megamillion:

Zum aktuellen Börsengeschehen passend

 
17.08.07 12:17
2.)Kauf-und Verkaufsprogramme:
- Wie oben gezeigt,gehen grösseren Bewegungen normalerweise grössere Optionskäufe mit etwa drei Stunden voran.Ein weiterer Hinweis ergibt sich aus der Prämie,besonders bei Tops und Böden.Steht z.B. in einem steigenden Markt ein grösseres Verkaufsprogramm bevor,dann erkennt man dies daran, dass die out - of - the - money - Calls flach sind oder sinken,obwohl der Markt steigt.
- Auch das Ende von Korrekturen lässt sich so erkennen.Nehmen wir an,in einem Bullenmarkt korrigierte der S&P um 40 Punkte,so kann man sicher sein,dass die Korrektur bald zu Ende sein wird,falls die out - of - the - money - Puts stabil werden oder sinken.Dies hängt damit zusammen,dass jetzt die Insider aufhören,Puts zu kaufen.Noch wichtiger ist aber,dass die Market Maker,wenn sie wissen,dass die Bewegung bald zu Ende geht,den Markt mit Puts oder Calls überfluten,da sie jetzt nackt schreiben.
- Die Divergenz zwischen Prämie und Kurs ist also ein wichtiger Indikator für die Marktrichtung.Ausnahmen sind Situationen,wo das Hedgen dominiert,wie z.B. vor dem Hexen-Sabbath.Dieser Indikator ist vor allem dann sehr sicher,wenn gleichzeitig die Optionen in Gegenrichtung auch steigen.Nehmen wir also an,der Markt sinkt,aber gleichzeitig steigen die Calls,während die Puts sinken.Es liegt hier dann sozusagen eine Doppeldivergenz vor.  
                                       

Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115072
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Megamillion:

Market Maker Squeeze

 
17.08.07 12:17
Market-Maker-Squeeze
- Die sogenannten Short Squeezes sind in der Regel Market Maker Squeezes.Diese sind hervorragend auszunutzen,man erkennt sie an der starken Beschleunigung des Trends zwischen 15.15 Uhr und 16.00 Uhr.
- Eine solche Squeeze wird mindestens drei Tage dauern und etliche hundert Punkte im Dow machen.Die Ursache liegt in den überteuerten Preisen für Optionen,sie führen dazu,dass die Institutionellen ihr Insider - Wissen normalerweise lieber als Schreiber von Optionen ausnutzen,wenn sie also glauben,dass der Markt fällt,werden sie statt überteuerte Puts zu kaufen,die dann vielleicht von 2$ auf 2,50$ steigen,lieber Calls schreiben.Schreiben sie z.B. einen in - the - money - Call von 10$,dann würde die gleiche Bewegung dazu führen,dass die Prämie auf 6$ oder etwas mehr abfällt,sie würden also das 6-8fache verdienen als durch den Kauf von Optionen.
- Dieses Verfahren des nackten Schreibens ist meist relativ risikoarm,einerseits haben sie,da sie ja den Geldfluss kennen,ziemlich genaue Vorstellungen,in welche Richtung sich der Markt in den nächsten Tagen entwickeln wird.Andererseits sind ihre Möglichkeiten der Vermarktung so gut,dass es,wenn der Markt gegen sie läuft,nahezu immer möglich ist,die Optionen ohne Verlust zurückzukaufen.
- Eine Market Maker Squeeze entwickelt sich jedoch dann,wenn der Dow einen grossen Sprung macht,z.B. ein Gap von 100 Punkten,besonders,wenn er dabei über einen Strike - Preis springt.Da die Market Maker ihre Verluste nicht bezahlen,sondern neue Optionen schreiben in der Erwartung,dass die Lücke geschlossen wird,entwickelt sich nun häufig daraus ein Selbstläufer: der Dow steigt weiter,sie müssen die Calls zurückkaufen und neue schreiben,und dies jeden Tag bis sie sich entschliessen,die Verluste mitzunehmen.
- Dasselbe funktioniert auch in die andere Richtung,falls man mit nackten Puts arbeitet.Es ist aber in beiden Fällen zu beachten,dass seit 1987 eine gewissen Gegentendenz aufgetreten ist: immer mehr Market Maker scheuen sich,Optionen über Nacht zu halten und daytraden nur noch die Optionen.

Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115073
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Megamillion:

Aktuelle Tradingsvarianten und Konstellationen

 
17.08.07 13:15
W-Formationen(Doppelboden) und M-Formationen(Doppeltop)
Obwohl sie im Prinzip analog sind,gibt es einen wichtigen Unterschied,der Boden wird vom Schmerz gebildet,der Top durch Freude.Da Schmerz ein eindringlicheres Gefühl ist,zeichnet sich der Doppelboden in der Regel klarer ab als ein Doppeltop.letzterer dauert auch länger,ist diffuser und zeigt mehr Zwischenhochs und Zwischentiefs.

Ein gutes Zeichen ist es,wenn der rechte Teil weniger Volumen besitzt als der erste.Auch das Momentum sollte abgenommen haben,meist zeigen hier schon die Momentum-Indikatoren eine Divergenz an.

Normalerweise ist das Tal zwischen der Doppelformation oder der Gipfel ein Fibonacci-Retracement.Das Gleiche trifft auch auf die Dreifachformationen zu.Man kann jedoch bei beiden nicht sagen,welche Verhältnisse erscheinen werden,Ausnahme ist die Kopf-Schulter-Formation,die die dort aufgeführten Verhältnisse fast immer aufweist.

Doppelboden(W-Formation)
Die Hauptschwierigkeit liegt darin,daß die Böden häufig nicht auf einer Linie liegen,meist ist der linke Boden ein wenig tiefer,was ein eher günstiges Signal ist,manchmal aber auch der rechte,dann wird diese Formation meist nicht erkannt.

Allgemein ist der Doppelboden wesentlich häufiger anzutreffen als der Doppeltop,da die Topformationen mehr zu Dreifachformationen neigen.

Der Übergang zwischen einem Doppelboden und einem Fibonacci-Retracement ist fließend,ebenso der Übergang zu einer Gartley-Formation.Obwohl die sichereren Kaufsignale sich ergeben,wenn beide Böden auf einer Linie liegen oder der rechte Boden höher liegt,besonders, wenn es sich um eine Gartley-oder Fibonacci-Formation handelt,ist der Fall,daß der rechte Boden tiefer liegt,interessant,er wird auch als Sprungfeder bezeichnet.Durch das tiefere Tief sind viele marktschwache Hände aus dem Markt gedrückt worden.Wenn jetzt die Kurse anfangen zu steigen,arbeitet das große Geld gegen das kleine und die schwachen Hände,die jetzt alle short sind,werden jetzt blitzartig aus dem Markt getrieben.

Ein gutes Hilfsmittel zum Umgang mit diesen unregelmäßigen Doppelböden sind die Bollinger-Bänder,denn im Normalfall bildet sich der erste Boden außerhalb der Bänder,also unter dem unteren und der zweite innerhalb und zwar auch dann,wenn er tiefer liegt als der erste.Relativ gesehen liegt er dann höher.

Normalerweise macht der Mittelpunkt einer W-Formation ein Fibonacci-Retracement.Man kann erst sicher sein,daß es sich um eine W-Formation handelt,wenn das Niveau dieses Fibonacci-Retracements später herausgenommen wird.

Da also die W-Formation häufig nicht zustandekommt,ist es sicherer,erst zu traden ab diesem Fibonacci-Niveau.Will man,und dies wollen die meisten Trader,schon die Bodenbildung als W-Formation erwischen,dann empfiehlt es sich,dies nur zu tun mit sehr engen Stops und wenn gleichzeitig eindeutige Indizien dafür vorliegen,daß hier eine Bodenbildung stattfindet,z.B. einen modernen Indikator.



Halten die 12800 und werden die 12900 überwunden würde sich dies wohl bestätigen aber noch donnern die Kanonen!



Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115100
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Megamillion:

Zwar kein Hexensabbat aber ähnlich

 
17.08.07 13:37
HEXENSABBATH
                                             
                                       Ein Sentiment-Indikator für den Hexensabbath
Der Netto Bullish - oder Bearish - Bias des Marktes ist ein hervorragender Indikator für die Bewegungen am Hexensabbath und an den Tagen danach.Dagegen kann man das Volumen vergessen, der Grund liegt im Hexensabbath - Zyklus,der dadurch entsteht,dass die meisten Schreiber gedeckte Optionen bevorzugen.Im übrigen auch bei Puts,wo als Deckung die Aktie leerverkauft wird.

Es kommt darauf an,ob in den letzten drei bis vier Wochen zuvor der Markt bullish oder bearish war.Nehmen wir an,er war bearish und es wurden Puts gekauft,dann wird bei der Glattstellung zwangsläufig ein Überhang an Aktienkäufen zustande kommen,wäre er bullish gewesen,so gäbe es dann einen Überhang an Aktienverkäufen.Diese Glattstellungen ziehen neue Glattstellungen nach sich,weil z.B. beim Glattstellen der Puts die Kurse steigen und andere Put - Inhaber ebenfalls zum Glattstellen gezwungen sind,usw.

Gleichzeitig führen die steigenden Kurse dann dazu,dass mehr Calls gekauft werden,und dies führt dann wiederum zu Käufen,da die Schreiber der Calls sich decken müssen.Dies wiederholt sich dann in Gegenrichtung,wenn die Leute mit den Call - Optionen beginnen,zu verkaufen,usw.

Das Ganze ist deshalb so sicher,weil dies ein zwangsläufiger Prozeß ist,der in den Markt eingebaut ist.Er führt zu hin und her oszillierenden Schwüngen,die sich vergrössern.Dies kann man nun sehr gut ausnutzen,liegt etwa ein deutlicher Überhang an Puts vor,dann exisistiert ein derart starker Boden unter dem Markt,dass es,wenn sich irgendwelche Kriege oder ähnliches ereignen,es unmöglich ist,ihn zu durchstoßen.Das bedeutet,dass der Markt vor dem Hexensabbath steigen muss.Am folgenden Montag dann wird der Markt deutlich tiefer eröffnen,die Kurse werden sinken,was wiederum zu Put - Käufen führt und entweder am Dienstag oder spätestens am Mittwoch wird der Markt aufhören zu sinken und wieder steigen.Das Ganze natürlich umgekehrt,wenn zuvor ein bullisher Bias entstand.

 Aktienindex-Links
Aktienmarktindikatoren
Aktienmarkt-Modelle
Tradition-Indikatoren
Sentiment-Indikatoren
Branchenanalyse
Bonds und Aktien
Optionsindikatoren
Reports
Saison
Monats-Saisonalität
Zyklen
Marktbreite
Intermarket-Analyse
Fibonacci beim S&P
Handelssysteme
Konjunktur
Crash
S&P-Daytrading
                       
                         Der Montag nach dem Hexensabbath
- Der oben geschilderte Prozess wird am Montag seit einigen Jahren mehr und mehr gestört aufgrund einer Sondererscheinung.Diese entsteht dadurch,dass viele kleine Trader versuchen,ohne Geld zu hinterlegen,am Montag ein Geschäft zu machen.Sie sammeln am Freitag vor dem Close wertlos verfallende Calls ein und üben sie sofort aus.Sie nutzen damit aus,dass die praktische Verbuchung sich zwar zum Freitags - Kurs ereignet,aber erst am Montag - Morgen geschieht.Der Broker verlangt das Geld aber erst nach Marktschluss,also am Montag - Abend und bis dahin kann praktisch jeder Brokerkunde beliebige Summen von Aktien kaufen ohne Geldeinsatz,denn bevor der Broker Geld verlangt,werden sie wiederverkauft.
- Die Market Maker können jedoch den Leuten keinen Gewinn,sie manipulieren natürlich schon am Freitag mit dem Ziel,so viel Prämien wie möglich zu behalten,was am besten geht,wenn die Kurse exakt auf einem Strike - Preis enden,was sie auch fast immer tun.Am Montag dann rühren sich die Aktien nicht,auch wenn man weiß,dass die Market Maker sich glattstellen müssen,haben sie Mittel genug,dies eben am Close zu tun.Dagegen verlassen die kleinen Spekulanten zwischen 14.00 und 15.00 Uhr bereits den Markt,spätestens aber vor 16.00 Uhr.Daher sinken die Kurse ab 14.00 Uhr und die Market Maker haben Gelegenheit durch Einsammeln der billigen Aktien sich glattzustellen.

                                 
                           Kommissions - Arbitrage
Die gemachten Ausführungen zu der Bedeutung von hohen Optionsumsätzen sind insofern einzuschränken,als vor dem Hexensabbath es sich dabei in der Regel um die sogenannten Kommissionsarbitrage handelt.Diese erkennt man an für die Aktie ungewöhnlichen hohen Orders bei gleichzeitigen Bewegungen bei den in - the - money - Optionen.Das Ganze verläuft kursneutral. - Kommissionsarbitrage kommt zustande,weil man kurz vor dem Verfallstermin die in -the - money - Option nicht mehr verkaufen kann,es aber für den Inhaber finanziell günstiger ist,statt sie selber auszuführen,sie über den Broker an den Spezialisten weiterzugeben,der die Ausführung aus Kommissionsgründen übernimmt.

                               
                               Traden des Hexensabbaths
- In den letzten fünf Jahren kam es regelmässig am Dienstag nach einem Hexensabbath zur Kursexplosion,besonders bei den grossen Gewinneraktien,weil auf die eben viele Optionen geschrieben wurden.
- Es empfiehlt sich daher,dem Markt vor dem Hexensabbath fernzubleiben,wenn man kein ausgesprochener Scalper ist,und dem Trend zu folgen,der am Dienstag,spätestens am Mittwoch nach dem Hexensabbath beginnt,da dieser zu heftigen Bewegungen führt.
- Professionelle traden am Freitag häufig so,dass sie mit Optionen gegen den Trend gehen um 11.00 Uhr vormittags,der bis dahin bestand.Sie kaufen dann die Optionen fünf Minuten vor dem Close zurück,wenn alle Zeitwerte verschwunden sind.Sie schreiben also noch am letzten Tag Optionen.
- Die Idee dahinter ist folgende: nach der Eröffnung kauft das Publikum,wenn es weiß,dass die Institutionellen gezwungen sind,Aktien zu kaufen.Diese tun dies jedoch mit MOC,so dass die Kurse eher absinken oder stagnieren,wenn das Publikum eingedeckt ist.Den Institutionellen macht es nämlich nichts aus,dass ihnen eine Masse Geld von Brokern gestohlen wird bei der MOC - Order,da sie sich mit Index - Optionen absichern.



Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115103
Antworten
Megamillion:

Na da sind wir ja gleich bei 13250.

 
17.08.07 14:16
Antworten
Megamillion:

Threatende hoffe es hat ein wenig geholfen

 
17.08.07 14:21
den Einstieg zu wagen auch wenn die Kanonen donnern.

Und wenn man jetzt noch das 13050 Breaklevel beachtet kann eigentlich nicht mehr viel schiefgehen und man könnte noch mal das donnern nutzen.

Weiterhin viel Erfolg und nicht vergessen

Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115108
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Megamillion:

Ob das die richtige Entscheidung war FED

 
17.08.07 14:27
AP
Fed Cuts Rate
Friday August 17, 8:22 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer  
Fed Cuts Discount Rate by 1 Half-Percentage Point


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve, declaring that increased economic uncertainty poses risks for U.S. business growth, announced Friday that it has approved a half-percentage point cut in its discount rate on loans to banks.
The action was the most dramatic effort yet by the central bank to restore calm to global financial markets which have been roiled in the past week by a widening credit crisis.

Somit wird das negative Bild bestätigt und könnte als eine Art Trugschlußreaktion enden.


Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115111
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Megamillion:

Na da wollen wir unsere Call Optionen mal

 
17.08.07 14:33
langsam absichern und hedgen die ersten Positionen bei 7475 mit 2 Shortpositionen!

Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115115
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Megamillion:

Call Optionen out 7460 Stop Putoptionen!

 
17.08.07 14:42
Putoptionen werden ebenfalls zu 7460 mit Limit versehen!
Antworten
Megamillion:

Weiter gehts mit Aufbau neuer Putoptionen

 
20.08.07 08:48
LS170B wanderte soeben für den unschlagbaren Einkaufspreis (scherz) von 3,08 Euronen mit all seinen 5000 Familienmitgliedern ins Depot zur Vermehrung.

Viel Spaß und Erfolg an der Schaukelbörse.
Antworten
Megamillion:

Passt zur aktuellen Lage

 
20.08.07 09:04
"An der Börse muss man nicht alles wissen, aber alles verstehen. Und auch wenn man alles versteht, muss man nicht alles mitmachen"

André Kostolany

Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115511
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Megamillion:

Put Put Put weiter aufgestockt

 
20.08.07 10:52
und man könnte sogar meinen daß eine unsichtbare Barriere die 7450 vernagelt.

achja...wie schön wäre es die 7370 zu spüren.
Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115560
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Megamillion:

VIX beachten schadet nie

 
20.08.07 10:56
(Verkleinert auf 90%) vergrößern
Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115565
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Megamillion:

Ahead of the Bell

 
20.08.07 14:09
Reuters
Lowe's cuts year outlook
Monday August 20, 8:01 am ET


ATLANTA (Reuters) - Retailer Lowe's Cos. (NYSE:LOW - News) reported a better-than-expected 9 percent rise in second-quarter profit on Monday, aided by new store openings and market share gains, boosting its shares by 4 percent in pre-market trading.
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The second-largest home improvement retailer behind Home Depot (NYSE:HD - News) said difficult sales comparisons were starting to lessen but still cut its full-year profit and sales forecast.

Earnings came to $1.02 billion, or 67 cents a share, in the quarter ended August 3, compared with $935 million, or 60 cents a share, a year earlier.

Total sales rose 5.8 percent to $14.2 billion, aided by the opening of 26 new stores. Sales at stores open at least a year, an important retail measure, fell 2.6 percent.

Lowe's called the current sales environment "challenging" as the soft U.S. housing market depressed results in some regions, but said it did gain market share. It also said gross margin improved.

It said areas of the country where housing hadn't accelerated too much in recent years delivered positive same-store sales.

The company forecast per-share profit for the full year in the range of $1.97 to $2.01, down from a May expectation of $1.99 to $2.03. Full-year sales are now expected to rise about 6 percent compared with a gain of about 7 percent forecast in May.

Lowe's forecast a third-quarter profit of 43 to 45 cents a share.

Analysts current expect profit of 47 cents a share for the third quarter and $1.97 for the year, according to Reuters Estimates.

(See blogs.reuters.com/category/themes/shop-talk/ for "Shop Talk" -- Reuters' retail and consumer blog)


Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115610
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Megamillion:

Amerigroup

 
20.08.07 14:10
AP
Ahead of the Bell: Amerigroup
Monday August 20, 8:03 am ET  
Amerigroup's Rating Boosted to 'Buy' by Jefferies Analyst, Citing Improved Medical Cost Ratios


NEW YORK (AP) -- Health insurer Amerigroup Corp. will likely see an improvement in medical costs during the second half of the year in the Georgia market allowing it to successfully manage its Tennessee expansion, an analyst said as he raised his rating on the shares.
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Jefferies & Co. analyst Brian Wright, in a note to investors, cited a review of filings with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners showing the medical care ratio in Georgia improved during the second quarter. He raised his rating to "Buy" from "Hold" and price target to $34 from $31.

Given the improvement in Georgia market and the comparative smoothness to the Tennessee expansion, we are more comfortable with the company's ability to achieve further improvement in new markets, which should offset potential deterioration in mature markets that are running at quite favorable results," he wrote in a note to investors.

The company could also see further cost improvements in the Georgia market as it recontracts is pharmacy benefits manager and dental network. Amerigroup also not only showed improvement in the Georgia market, but outperformed its peers, he said.

In July, Amerigroup tightened is full-year outlook after reporting that its second-quarter profit more than doubled. The company expects full-year profit between $2 and $2.10 per share.

Shares of Virginia Beach, Va.-based Amerigroup closed Friday at $28.86.


Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 115613
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Megamillion:

Putputs saving

 
20.08.07 15:49
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Megamillion:

#Falle ausgelöst nun kann es runter#

 
22.08.07 10:35
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Megamillion:

Hedge Fund Hit Man Hired by Cohen, Loeb, Sender

 
24.08.07 16:35
Hedge Fund Hit Man Hired by Cohen, Loeb, Sender, Says Insurer

By Anthony Effinger

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- One morning in 2005, an unusual letter arrived for Rev. Barry Parker at St. Paul's Anglican church in Toronto. The news: A member of his flock was out to swindle the parish.

``Dear Father,'' the note begins. ``The attached documents are being sent to you out of my concern for the Church's finances.''

The letter goes on to say that the allegedly wayward parishioner, an insurance executive named Prem Watsa, was bilking shareholders of Toronto-based Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.

``I am perplexed by the mystifying, spectacular rise of this insurance medusa,'' the typed letter reads. ``Be aware, Father, be skeptical and ask Mr. Watsa to make a full confession.'' The note was signed P. Fate. The return address was that of St. Patrick's Cathedral in New York.

Stranger still is what Fairfax says is the source of the letter: A cabal of hedge fund managers -- among them James Chanos, Steven Cohen, Daniel Loeb, David Rocker and Adam Sender -- hoping to profit from a slump in Fairfax stock. Fairfax, which has a history of accounting lapses, sued eight hedge fund firms for racketeering in July 2006, demanding $6 billion in damages.

The insurer says the letter to Parker, excerpts of which were included in its complaint, was just one of many dirty tricks the fund managers used to smear the company, which has 8,000 employees and $26.8 billion of assets. The hedge funds deny wrongdoing.

MI4

At the heart of this story is a freelance research analyst named Spyro Contogouris, whose previous -- and often contentious -- dealings have ranged from Houston real estate to Nigerian natural gas. Until recently, Contogouris, 46, ran a firm that sounded more cloak-and-dagger than stocks-and-bonds: MI4 Reconnaissance LLC, based in New Orleans.

Fairfax says the hedge fund firms paid Contogouris and MI4 employee Max Bernstein to send out slanderous reports about the insurer and to harass its executives.

Contogouris, like the hedge funds, has said the insurer's allegations are false. The skirmish took a strange turn last November, when Contogouris was arrested on unrelated embezzlement charges. He has pleaded not guilty in that case. Contogouris and the hedge funds say they will argue on Sept. 5 to have the Fairfax complaint dismissed. Contogouris didn't respond to telephone messages left at his New Orleans home.

The Fairfax fight is one of several bitter battles taking place between companies and independent research firms. Internet retailer Overstock.com Inc. has sued Rocker and researcher Gradient Analytics Inc., claiming Rocker paid Gradient and helped analysts there write negative reports on Overstock.com. Drugmaker Biovail Corp. has sued Cohen's SAC Capital Advisors LLC and Gradient, alleging a plot to drive down its shares.

The firms say the allegations are false.

Integrity

The cases raise questions about the integrity of securities research four years after several Wall Street firms settled claims that their analysts issued biased reports to win investment banking business. The 2003 settlement helped boost business for analysts who aren't affiliated with big investment banks.

Now, some unaffiliated analysts are allegedly being corrupted by deep-pocketed hedge funds, which often bet against stocks. In its complaint, filed in the New Jersey Superior Court in Morris County, Fairfax alleges hedge funds hired Contogouris to beat up its shares.

``The complaint tells a story of people playing by a whole different set of rules,'' says Michael Bowe, a lawyer at New York-based Kasowitz, Benson, Torres & Friedman LLP, which represents Fairfax.

The hedge fund firms say Fairfax sued to quiet critics.

Tempting Target

``This case involves a spurious attempt by Fairfax, a publicly traded Canadian company, to use New Jersey's anti- racketeering statute to silence all stock market analysts critical of Fairfax and to deter investors from 'shorting' its stock,'' wrote lawyers for Sender in a memorandum supporting the motion to dismiss.

Fairfax has been a tempting target for short sellers. The company headed by Watsa, a former door-to-door air conditioner salesman who built his property-casualty insurer through acquisitions, has been plagued by erratic earnings and accounting errors. In June 2005, Fairfax disclosed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had requested information on Fairfax's use of reinsurance products. The company said the investigation was ongoing as of early August.

Contogouris says in court documents that he did work for six different hedge fund firms. In a sworn affidavit in an unrelated civil complaint against him, he names several firms that Fairfax later sued, including Exis Capital Management Inc., which is run by Sender.

Denial

Exis did indeed buy research from MI4 and shorted Fairfax stock in 2005, based in part on Contogouris's analysis, according to Sender's lawyer, David Zensky, of Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP in New York. ``Exis vigorously denies the charges of wrongdoing in the complaint,'' Zensky says.

In a flurry of reports issued in 2005 and 2006, MI4 said Fairfax used a web of European subsidiaries to conceal a cash crunch. Contogouris likened the insurer to Enron and postulated that a ``Friends of Fairfax'' club made up of analysts and investors conspired to drive up its stock.

``What draws them to each other, and indeed binds them together, is a feeling of belonging to a 'Group Think,''' Contogouris wrote in a report dated June 23, 2006. ``It's herd behavior, it's Orwellian in its management and, in the case of Fairfax and the members of the FoF Club, it's true.''

Arrested

Among the club members, according to Contogouris: Mason Hawkins, chief executive officer of Memphis, Tennessee-based Southeastern Asset Management Inc. Southeastern is Fairfax's largest shareholder, with 21.5 percent of the stock as of June. Lee Harper, a spokeswoman for Southeastern, didn't return telephone calls seeking comment.

Contogouris's war with Fairfax took an odd turn on Nov. 13, 2006, when he was arrested on federal charges of embezzling money from an unnamed former employer. News of the arrest sent Fairfax soaring 10 percent in a day. Contogouris pleaded not guilty to a four-count indictment filed in Manhattan federal court in New York. His lawyer, James Felix, declined to comment.

Most critics of Fairfax have gone quiet since the company filed its racketeering complaint. In all, Fairfax sued eight hedge fund companies: Red Bank, New Jersey-based Copper River Management LLC, the successor to Rocker Partners LP that was formerly run by Rocker; Sender's Exis; Chanos's Kynikos Associates Ltd.; and Loeb's Third Point LLC, all based in New York. Two others are in Greenwich, Connecticut: Lone Pine Capital LLC and SAC Capital. Another, Trinity Capital of Jacksonville Inc., is based in Jacksonville, Florida. The last, Sigma Capital Management LLC, is a New York-based division of SAC.

Big Names

Several of the managers are named personally, including Chanos, Cohen, Loeb, Rocker and Sender. In addition, Fairfax sued Morgan Keegan & Co. analyst John Gwynn; Christopher Brett Lawless, a former analyst at Fitch Group Inc. in New York; Bernstein; and Contogouris. Fairfax says Gwynn and Lawless conspired with the hedge fund firms.

Most of the defendants remain mum. Copper River, Kynikos, Lone Pine and SAC declined to comment. Third Point and Trinity didn't return calls. Messages left at a New Jersey listing for Lawless weren't returned.

To beat the hedge funds, Fairfax has enlisted public relations maestro Michael Sitrick and uberlitigator Marc Kasowitz, whose New York-based law firm Kasowitz, Benson, Torres & Friedman has battled class action asbestos claims and helped cigarette maker Liggett Group Inc. avoid penalties imposed on Big Tobacco.

Lone Voice

Only one Fairfax detractor is still talking: William Gahan, a trader at Institutional Credit Partners LLC, a New York-based fixed-income manager. Gahan, 41, correctly predicted the 2003 collapse of scandal-plagued Italian dairy company Parmalat Finanziaria SpA. Now, he says he has accountants and tax lawyers delving into Fairfax.

Gahan says Fairfax used transactions with a Cayman Islands- based subsidiary of Bank of America Corp. to dodge U.S. taxes. Fairfax says the deals were proper.

After Gahan began asking questions about Fairfax, the insurer included him and his firm in its racketeering suit. ``Anyone who questions the company gets sued,'' he says.

Gahan fueled Fairfax's allegations of a conspiracy in November when he and Bernstein posted a $200,000 bond to guarantee that Contogouris would appear in court on the separate embezzlement charges. Gahan says he did it because he thinks Contogouris is innocent. He says he's skeptical about all the dirty deeds that Fairfax alleges, too.

``You can put anything in a lawsuit,'' Gahan says.

Free Speech

Lawyers for Contogouris and Bernstein say their clients are protected by the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which guarantees the right to free speech. On those grounds, they say, the complaint should be dismissed.

``Without the application of those protections at this phase of the litigation, the MI4 defendants will be permanently harmed, and their First Amendment rights, and indeed their livelihoods, will be permanently impaired,'' attorney Stephen Rosenberg says in court papers.

It's been a wild ride for Contogouris, a controversial character who took up stock research after working in real estate and on energy investments. No one involved in the Fairfax case seems to know much about what Contogouris did before 1993. After that point, some of his business dealings are detailed in court documents.

For a time, he lived large in Hollywood. In 2000, he bought a house just above Sunset Boulevard, according to property records. He and his brother Chris, an executive producer on Eminem's ``8 Mile'' soundtrack, bought a Los Angeles music club called the Mint.

Paris Hilton

Chris lunched with Paris Hilton and sang at the club with Guns N' Roses frontman Axl Rose. Spyro rubbed elbows with Renée Zellweger and Lionel Richie as a board member of the Bony Pony Ranch, a camp for low-income kids near Los Angeles.

Contogouris made his first big mark in real estate in 1993, when a Greek shipping magnate named Dimitri Manios hired him to renovate a 1906 brownstone in Manhattan.

Manios died suddenly, and his brother, Vassilios, later asked Contogouris to refurbish and sell two buildings in Houston, according to a civil fraud complaint that Vassilios Manios filed in April 2005 against Contogouris in Harris County, Texas. As of mid-August, that case hadn't been resolved.

Then the trouble started. According to Manios's complaint, Contogouris withheld more than half of the $39.5 million he got for the Houston properties. Manios fired him in April 2002. In his complaint, Manios says he belatedly discovered that Contogouris had been siphoning money for years through a network of more than 130 bank accounts.

Match for Manios

The criminal embezzlement complaint against Contogouris doesn't name a victim, but the details match Manios's civil action against Contogouris, down to the numbers on checks that Contogouris allegedly used to steal money.

Even before Manios fired him, Contogouris was prowling for a new moneymaker, this time in energy. In 2000, he agreed to invest $3.75 million in a partnership established by Houston-based Hanover Compressor Co. to build a natural gas compression plant on barges in Nigeria.

The Hanover project turned out to be a fiasco. Hanover investors later filed a class action suit against the Houston company, alleging that the deal was a ploy to artificially inflate Hanover's sales.

The deal appears to have been a good one for Contogouris. The complaint, filed by Pirelli Armstrong Tire Corp. Retiree Medical Benefits Trust, says Hanover guaranteed a refund of Contogouris's investment and paid him a $1 million commission for entering into the contract.

`Honest Person'

The Pirelli complaint doesn't allege any wrongdoing by Contogouris. Mark Roberts, president of Cambridge, Massachusetts- based independent research firm Off Wall Street Consulting Group Inc., says Contogouris was an unwitting accomplice in the scheme.

Roberts says he had been digging into Hanover's accounting and had recommended shorting the stock. Then Contogouris came to him with information, Roberts says.

Hanover settled the class action suit in 2003, without admitting or denying wrongdoing.

``Spyro is a very honest person,'' Roberts says. ``I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.''

Working on the Hanover project, Contogouris met fund managers who'd wagered against it, Roberts says. Contogouris liked the work and had a list of potential clients. He decided to become a stock analyst, Roberts says. MI4 was born.

Art Collector

Contogouris met Sender through a friend of a friend or a relative, Sender's lawyer Zensky says. Sender, 38, left SAC in 1998 to establish Exis. Like his mentor Cohen, Sender is a collector of contemporary art. In a March interview with Bloomberg News, Sender valued his private collection at $100 million.

Morgan Keegan's Gwynn says he met Contogouris at Sender's office. ``As far as I know, he was an employee of Exis,'' Gwynn said in a telephone interview. Morgan Keegan is a unit of Birmingham, Alabama-based Regions Financial Corp.

``He was never an employee of Exis,'' Zensky says of Contogouris. ``Like others, we bought research from him. He had a very impressive work ethic and lots of good ideas and insight concerning a variety of companies.''

Sender lost his 2005 bet against Fairfax. The shares rose, forcing him to cover his losses by buying more expensive stock.

`Fair, Friendly'

Before its battle with short sellers, Fairfax was a press- shy insurance company. Watsa, the founder, was born in Hyderabad, India. He graduated in 1972 from the Indian Institutes of Technology with a degree in chemical engineering and moved to Canada. He sold air conditioners to put himself through the University of Western Ontario, earning an MBA in 1974.

He did a stint as an investment analyst at an insurer, then established his own money management firm, Hamblin Watsa Investment Counsel, in 1984. A year later, he bought his first insurance company, Markel Financial Holdings, a struggling trucking insurer. He renamed it Fairfax, short for ``fair, friendly acquisitions.''

Fairfax thrived until the late 1990s, when it bought two U.S. insurers: Crum & Forster Holdings Inc., for $565 million, and TIG Holdings Inc., for $847 million. Both got swamped by unexpected liabilities, including claims tied to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The 9/11 attacks cost Fairfax $85 million after taxes and contributed to a loss of $298 million for the three months ended on Sept. 30, 2001 -- 20 times the loss from a year earlier, according to company financial statements. Watsa shut most of TIG in December 2002. With more of its operations now in the U.S., Fairfax listed shares on the New York Stock Exchange in the same month.

`Fairfax Project'

The bears pounced, selling 2 million shares short by January 2003. The ``Fairfax Project'' -- a name the band of hedge funds used, according to the company -- had begun.

Fairfax says the hedge fund firms worked with analysts to hammer the stock. One of the first analysts to take aim was Gwynn at Morgan Keegan, who issued a report on Jan. 16, 2003, saying Fairfax was short $5 billion of reserves needed to cover future claims. Fairfax shares listed in Toronto tumbled 28 percent during the next four days, to 85 Canadian dollars, a seven-year low. The U.S. shares followed suit.

Two weeks later, on Jan. 30, Gwynn backpedaled and issued a new report that put the shortfall at $3 billion. Fairfax shares in Toronto rebounded 9.7 percent.

Contogouris started following Fairfax in early to mid-2005. He lays out his side of the story in a complaint he filed against various Fairfax executives and subsidiaries in U.S. District Court in Louisiana in November 2006.

Luxembourg

Contogouris zeroed in on Fairfax's European subsidiaries. He said Watsa was using them to inflate assets. In a report dated Nov. 13, 2005, he said Watsa had shuffled money from a unit in Hungary to another in Gibraltar and then to a third in Luxembourg so Fairfax could count the money twice and use it to get loans. He later pegged the amount at $1 billion.

Bowe says that's nonsense. ``As detailed in Fairfax's lawsuit, the alleged undisclosed off-balance-sheet entities and alleged undisclosed pledge agreements upon which Contogouris's claims are based never existed,'' he says.

Fairfax, in its complaint, says the hedge funds' dirty tricks started in late 2005, with the November letter to St. Paul's, where Watsa served as chairman of the investment committee.

In that letter, the writer identified only as P. Fate tells Parker that Watsa bears a striking physical resemblance to Martin Frankel, who in 2004 was sentenced to 17 years in prison for stealing more than $200 million from U.S. insurers. Fate goes on to tell Parker that Frankel also stole a fortune from the Catholic Church.

`Paper Shuffle'

``While these coincidences are surprising, they do not compare to the similarities between the massive money-laundering schemes perpetrated by Marty Frankel and the massively convoluted paper shuffle created by Mr. Watsa,'' Fate says.

Attached was a 26-page article detailing Frankel's fraud, his flight from U.S. authorities and his supposed interest in sadomasochistic orgies. Parker didn't return calls seeking comment.

Watsa got the same package via e-mail, Fairfax says in its complaint. Computer code at the bottom of the document shows P. Fate is in fact Bernstein, Fairfax says in its complaint.

The same day Watsa got the e-mail, someone phoned Fairfax and left a message. ``Tell Watsa that when he goes to jail next year we will visit him and bring him some treats,'' the caller said, according to Fairfax. The originating phone number was listed to Exis, the insurer says.

The harassment was relentless, says Paul Rivett, Fairfax's chief legal officer. For months, he says he had to turn off his home phone periodically because of crank calls in which people read excerpts from J.K. Rowling's Harry Potter books or claimed to be drug dealers looking for money.

Attack Intensifies

``It felt as if they were trying to wage a psychological warfare campaign,'' Rivett says.

Fed up, Rivett says he convinced Watsa to hire a law firm to investigate. Kasowitz Benson's Bowe had useful experience. In February, his firm had sued SAC Capital and several other hedge fund firms and analysts, alleging a plot to drive down shares of Biovail. Like Fairfax, Biovail was under investigation by the SEC.

The attack on Fairfax intensified. In May 2006, Contogouris arrived at the London offices of a Fairfax unit, according to the insurer. He got past the building's security personnel by saying he was a reporter, the complaint says.

Inside, he tried to get executives to talk by saying that Watsa had sold the subsidiary. ``Special Situations Research Consultant, MI4 Reconnaissance,'' read the card he later left behind. The phone number on the card rang through to Exis, Fairfax says.

Complaint Filed

Short interest in Fairfax's U.S. shares surged to 4.2 million shares in July 2006 from 3.3 million that June. On July 26, seven months after the letter arrived for Parker, Fairfax sued the hedge fund firms, Bernstein, Contogouris and the others, alleging a vast conspiracy.

Then came a twist: Two days later, Fairfax said it would restate earnings to correct five years of errors. That August, Fairfax quantified the restatement, lopping off $235.3 million of shareholders' equity. The hedge funds say in court documents that Fairfax sued to blunt criticism of its accounting. Bowe calls that claim ``silly.''

After Fairfax filed its suit, many Fairfax critics shut up. At Morgan Keegan, Gwynn stopped covering the company in January. Only Gahan is pounding the table now. He says a friend -- not one of the people named in Fairfax's complaint -- suggested in 2006 that he look into Fairfax.

Mining Filings

Gahan talked to Contogouris, dug through Fairfax's earnings restatements and at one point blanketed the 25-foot (7.6-meter) length of a conference table at his firm with SEC filings.

After more than a year of forensic accounting, Gahan says Contogouris was right: Something was rotten at Fairfax. Gahan says Fairfax improperly lowered its U.S. tax bill in 2003 when it consolidated a reinsurance unit called Odyssey Re Holdings Corp. into its U.S. tax group. Sitrick, Fairfax's spokesman, says that claim is false.

In early 2003, Fairfax owned 74 percent of Odyssey. Owning more than 80 percent would give Fairfax the right to consolidate Odyssey for tax purposes. Fairfax had net operating losses that would cancel out Odyssey's profit, letting Fairfax keep $140 million that Odyssey would have otherwise sent to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service for 2003, Gahan says.

Cayman Islands

Instead of using precious cash, Fairfax got 4.3 million Odyssey shares -- enough to get more than 80 percent -- by handing over $78 million of notes to a unit of Bank of America called NMS Services (Cayman) Inc., based in the Cayman Islands. NMS, in turn, went out and borrowed Odyssey shares from investors and transferred them to Fairfax. NMS kept the right to get the shares back 21 months later.

Fairfax said it made the purchase for tax reasons and as an investment. Deals done solely for tax reasons rankle the IRS, and it has disallowed transactions when companies can't prove another purpose. Gahan says Fairfax couldn't make any money because of the way its deal was structured, which meant there was no investment purpose.

For example, in 2006 Fairfax gave Bank of America $23.5 million in cash to cancel notes it had used to pay for 1 million shares of Odyssey, Gahan says. That meant Bank of America gave up rights to them and needed to buy 1 million shares to return to investors, he says. Fairfax agreed to pay Bank of America for the cost, Gahan says, based on his reading of Odyssey SEC filings.

The reimbursement slashed any profit Fairfax would have made from owning the shares for three years, Gahan says.

``Fairfax never had a real investment in the stock,'' says Bryan Skarlatos, a tax attorney at Kostelanetz & Fink LLP in New York who Gahan hired to examine the transaction.

Precise Compliance

Fairfax says Gahan and Skarlatos are wrong.

``The statement that Odyssey was not properly consolidated with Fairfax in 2003 is simply untrue,'' Sitrick, the outside spokesman, said in a statement. ``The 2003 transaction being discussed, and the resulting tax consolidation, complied precisely with the IRS regulation and all relevant laws governing consolidation. The individuals raising these issues are defendants in Fairfax's racketeering litigation who still hold an economic interest in a decline of Fairfax stock and have admitted their association with co-defendant Contogouris. Their theories about consolidation ignore the actual terms of the governing tax provisions, contradict the relevant tax authorities and are otherwise based on false factual premises that simply do not exist.''

Bank of America spokesman Brandon Ashcraft declined to comment on the matter, citing client confidentiality.

`On the Books'

Robert Willens, a managing director and tax-accounting analyst at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., says Gahan's best shot is that the IRS examines the transaction to see if it had any purpose other than tax avoidance. The IRS hasn't scrutinized a case like this in a long time, but there's a chance it could, he says. ``These cases are on the books,'' Willens says.

Gahan has put money on being right. ICP has bought credit derivatives that will rise in value if, as Gahan predicts, publicly traded Odyssey Re gets hit with a big tax bill, weakening its financial condition. His boss, ICP founder Thomas Priore, says the fight is about more than money.

``When they sued us, it became personal,'' Priore says.

As for Contogouris, his days as an analyst are over, for now. MI4 has stopped doing research, for fear of getting sued again, his lawyers said in court documents.

As of mid-August, his separate trial on embezzlement charges had yet to be scheduled. None of his former clients would step forward to help when he was arrested, either.

``No one would take his call,'' Gahan says. It seems Contogouris, one-time head of MI4, has been disavowed by the hedge fund firms that now stand accused of paying him to do their dirty work.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anthony Effinger in Portland, Oregon at aeffinger@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 24, 2007 00:06 EDT

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Megamillion:

Sachsen LB gerettet

 
27.08.07 10:27
Landesbank Baden-Württemberg rettet Sachsen LB
Dresden/Stuttgart (dpa) - Die Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) hat in einer schnellen Hilfsaktion die Landesbank Sachsen aus einer milliardenschweren Schieflage wegen Fehlspekulationen auf dem US- Hypothekenmarkt gerettet. Am Sonntagabend unterzeichneten die Eigentümer der beiden Banken eine Grundlagenvereinbarung über die Übernahme.
DPA
Vom heutigen Montag an haben damit die Stuttgarter das Sagen bei der sächsischen Bank. Sachsen und die Sachsen-Finanzgruppe übertragen ihre Anteile an der Sachsen LB der Stuttgarter Bank und werden dafür an der LBBW beteiligt, teilte Baden-Württembergs Ministerpräsident Günther Oettinger (CDU) mit. Der endgültige Kaufpreis werde mit der abschließenden Bewertung zum 31. Dezember 2007 festgestellt, weil die Turbulenzen auf den Finanzmärkten eine faire Bewertung derzeit nicht zuliessen, hieß es.

Als Soforthilfe überweise die LBBW Eigenkapital in Höhe von 250 Millionen Euro nach Sachsen. Die LBBW wachse im nationalen Maßstab und «Sachsen bekommt einen fairen Partner», erklärte Oettinger. Die Sachsen LB wird derzeit mit 300 Millionen Euro bewertet.

Der sächsische Ministerpräsident Georg Milbradt (CDU) hatte sich für die über das Wochenende durchgezogene Rettungsaktion auf eine Notlage berufen. Milbradt befand, dass mit der LBBW ein starker Partner gefunden worden sei. «Die Sachsen LB kommt aus stürmischer See in einen sicheren Hafen. Für den sächsischen Haushalt, die Sparkassen und ihre Kunden ist diese Entscheidung die richtige Weichenstellung», sagte der CDU-Politiker. Die Sachsen LB werde künftig kein eigenständiges Institut mehr sein, sondern als Zweigstelle der LBBW geführt. Die LBBW habe sich eine sehr restriktive Rückgabeklausel einräumen lassen, weil noch keine abschließende Risikobewertung möglich gewesen sei. «Baden-Württemberg springt nicht in ein schwarzes Loch», versicherte Milbradt. Finanzminister Horst Metz (CDU) sagte in Dresden, es sei vereinbart worden, den Standort Leipzig und den Umfang der Beschäftigung zu erhalten.

Erst vor einer Woche hatte die Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe der Sachsen LB eine Kreditlinie von 17,3 Milliarden Euro gewährt, um die Bank am Leben zu halten. Auslöser der Krise war der von der Bank-Tochter Sachsen LB Europe (Dublin/Irland) gemanagte Fonds Ormond Quay. Wie die «Welt» aus Verhandlungskreisen erfuhr, habe die LBBW darauf bestanden, dass der Krisenfonds Ormond Quay nicht Gegenstand des Kaufvertrags.


Artikel vom 27.08.07 - 07.15 Uhr  
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Waldmann:

ohne Krisenfonds

 
27.08.07 10:33
" Wie die «Welt» aus Verhandlungskreisen erfuhr, habe die LBBW darauf bestanden, dass der Krisenfonds Ormond Quay nicht Gegenstand des Kaufvertrags."

Quelle wie in #23

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Megamillion:

Interessante Trading Alternative

 
29.08.07 09:00
für Trader ohne wirkliches System und generierte Signale. (Bauchtrader?)

I would like to take this opportunity to describe the short term trading
methodology I have called pivot trading and the Near Impulse Theory and
application which makes it possible.

Pivot Trading:

Pivot Trading is based on the notion that total return can be maximized and
risk minimized by trading the short term swings between pivot highs and
lows. To accomplish this strategy successfully however, one must be able to
anticipate when to expect the pivots to occur.To do this I have developed a
market model based on my Near Impulse Theory and a forecasting application
called the Near Impulse Forecaster.
Near Impulse Theory:

The Near Impulse Theory is built on the work of others that view financial
markets as non-linear dynamic systems exhibiting chaotic characteristics. In
my theory swings between pivot points are viewed as unifractals with
combinations of unifractals composing the wave structure of a market. The
pivot points themselves are caused by one of two things:
(1)     A change in sentiment of the dominant population of investors in
response to new information (Impulses) entering the market. These impulses
have limited strength and duration, degrading in time.
(2)     Wave fronts of changing sentiment related to the psychological
profiles of the investment groups participating in the market. These wave
fronts  expand from the initial impulse in a non-linear manner.

Although new impulses are random and not subject to forecasting, the
resultant future wave fronts are forecastable using a non-linear
mathematical algorithm applied to the strength of the near impulse. The Near

Impulse Forecaster, developed for TradeStation, applies this algorithm to
forecast potential future dates for a change in trend (sentiment). It is
these forecast dates that I post in advance on my web site and often to this
group. I have been posting the free forecasts to the web site since
September, 1998 to establish the reliability of the theory. Since then there
have been 211 forecasted pivots in various markets with 166 (78.6%)
resulting in tradable reversals of trend.

Since new impulses can enter a market at any time, we cannot be sure of the
duration of a forecasted swing or the price change of the swing. To assist
in trading these forecasted pivots, I have developed several additional
tools.
The first is the TEN's System The Ten's System was developed to filter the
Near Impulse signals to select only those with the most profit potential.
The system makes use of the Near Impulse signal in combination with the
channel position of the security and an independent buy/see signal. By
filtering and rating the trades in this manner, one can determine the extent
of a potential reversal as well as the potential market sectors that are
likely to lead the reversal. For example this analysis resulted in a recent
posting  to this group  for semiconductors to lead an end of year rally.

A second tool is the Daily Bias Indicator. When a trader anticipates a trade
signaled by the TEN's System, he wants the overall market to support the
direction of the trade. The Daily Bias indicator provides an indication of
the likely direction of market trading for the day as well as intraday
changes in market direction. For example If I were expecting to short a
number of stocks exhibiting TEN SELL signals, I would want the market to be
bearish on the day of the trade. The Daily Bias Indicator would give me this
indication in the first 30 to 60 minutes of market action.

A third tool is the PivotTrendDayTrader. This indicator displays dynamic
trend lines for three time frames on one intraday chart. The time frames are
(1) the local time frame of the chart (five minute for example), (2) a one
day trend and (3) a three day trend. When price penetrates these lines it
gives the trader an idea of the expected duration of he trade. Additionally
the penetration of the trend lines can provide earlier entry signals thus
minimizing the risk of being wrong on the trade.

These tools and my free quarter ahead forecast are offered on my web site,
PivotTrader.com. I also offer a mentoring service to learn the complete
Pivot Trading methodology and additional applications.
I would be glad to entertain questions regarding this trading approach
either privately or addressed to this forum.

Jim White

www.PivotTrader.com
Home of the Near Impulse Forecaster
www.purebytes.com/archives/realtraders/2003/msg03942.html
Antworten
Megamillion:

Das 1mal1 des Daytradens

2
29.08.07 10:59

Persönliche Einstellung

Jeder, der das Day-Trading als eine Möglichkeit sieht, um schnell und mühelos reich zu werden wird früher oder später anfangen zu zocken anstatt zu traden - dies ist ein sicherer Weg in den Ruin.

Sie sollten sich darüber im klaren sein, daß Day-Trading eine Arbeit wie jede andere sein kann. Selbst wenn Sie sich intensiv mit der Materie beschäftigen werden Sie eine ganze Weile benötigen, um wirklich zu verstehen wie das Geschäft funktioniert. Sobald Sie es als "zocken" und als grosses Roulettespiel sehen sollten Sie Ihr Konto auflösen und das Geld lieber sparen...

http://www.day-trading.de/Daytrading.php

Antworten
Megamillion:

Zu 25 Pivot-Trading als Alternative

 
29.08.07 11:34
Auch ein relativ unerfahrener Daytrader hätte zumindest Anhaltspunkte für Buyin Stopbuy und StopLoss erhalten.

Hirn ausgeschaltet, Kauf eines Long-Zertifikates oder Optionsschein auf den Dax nahe des 3 Supports und eine sichere Stoploss order unterhalb des 3. Supports.

Dieser kann gemäß den Supports bis zum erreichen des Pivot nachgezogen werden.

Trefferquote des Pivottrading (in Einbezug der mit angegeben Indikatoren) bei nahe 80%.

Nur eine mögliche Alternative von vielen aber bevor man sich dem Markt nackt entgegenstellt.


Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 117210
Antworten
Megamillion:

Vormittags-Trading Der frühe Vogel fängt den Wurm

3
29.08.07 11:59

Der frühe Vogel fängt den Wurm

Die meisten Hochs und Tiefs werden in der ersten oder letzten Stunde gemacht. Daher ist das Traden am Vormittag relativ risikolos,trotz der schnellen Bewegung: Denn man verläßt nach wenigen Minuten den Markt,wenn man nicht sofort in den Profit läuft.

Noch günstiger ist es,in einem solchen Fall zu drehen und die Zahl der Futures zu verdoppeln. Bei dieser Technik wird man im Monat zwei bis drei Tage finden,die mit Verlust enden,weil man zweimal oder dreimal so ausgestoppt wird.Auf die Dauer zahlt es sich jedoch aus,da man an der großen Mehrzahl von Tagen im Gewinn sein wird.

Einen zusätzlichen Hinweis,ob der Trade Erfolg haben wird oder nicht,gibt die Ausführung:Eine schlechte Ausführung,also eine hohe Slipage,deutet meist auf eine Gewinntrade,eine günstige auf einen Verlusttrade.

Die erste Range,die in der Eröffnungsphase gebildet wird,ist wiederum Ziel von Stop-Jägern.

Es wird also mehrfach falsche Ausbrüche geben,vor allem,wenn es am Vortag eine starken Trend gab und der Markt sich jetzt wieder etwas beruhigt hat. Die Kunst des Vormittags-Tradens liegt also vor allem darin,die Indikatoren sehr genau zu beherrschen,um falsche Breaks herausfiltern zu können.

Das Schwierigste ist das Traden kurz nach dem Open in den ersten zehn Minuten,jedoch ergibt sich 20-30 Minuten nach der Eröffnung eine zweite Chance: Hier entwickelt sich der erste wirkliche Trend in den meisten Fällen.

Diese Trendbewegung dauert meist etwas mehr als eine Stunde,worauf dann langsam schon die Mittagsphase beginnt,die von einem trendlosen Verhalten gekennzeichnet ist und vielem Jagen von Stops.

Der Eröffnungspreis bildet an vielen Tagen eine zentrale Linie,um die besonders am Vormittag die Kurse fluktuieren.Man muß dann also auch lernen mit den Indikatoren in Seitwärtsbewegungen umzugehen und die richtige Ausbruchsrichtung zu erwischen.

Vielleicht das wichtigste Motiv beim Vormittagstrade besteht darin,das Gesamtmuster zu erkennen,das der Tag bilden wird.Ausgangspunkt ist die Opening Range,die Entwicklung daraus,den jeweiligen Zustand der Indikatoren,usw.Je größer die Opening Range ist,desto wahrscheinlicher ist es,daß der Tag volatil hin und her gehen wird.Die größeren Trend-Tage haben entweder eine sehr kleine Opening Range oder machen schon einen Großteil der Bewegung direkt an die Eröffnung anschließend,ohne direkt zurückzukommen.Hilfreich bei der Beurteilung des sich entwickelnden Tages ist immer der Umstand,daß an den meisten Tagen ein Extrem des Bars am Vormittag gemacht wird. Ein weiteres Motiv ist die zeitliche Lage der News.Das sind nicht nur die News,die den Aktienmarkt insgesamt betreffen,wie Fed-Veröffentlichungen oder Konjunkturmeldungen, sondern auch Neuigkeiten von größeren Firmen,die eine Ausstrahlung auf Branchen haben,die dann wieder den Dow oder den Nasdaq bewegen können,usw.

Ein weiterer Schlüsel,besonders am frühen Vormittag,ist die Zeit,die Rallyes und Korrekturen benötigen.Eine Korrektur gegen den Trend sollte hier in der Regel nicht länger als 25 Minuten dauern,meist weniger.Dauert sie länger,so besteht eine große Wahrscheinlichkeit,daß der Trend gewendet hat.Auch gibt es so gut wie niemals längere Seitwärtsbewegungen am frühen Vormittag und auch selten am späten.Man sollte also eine Bewegung,auch wenn die eigenen Stops noch nicht ausgelöst sind,nie länger als 15-20 Minuten gegen sich laufen lassen oder seitwärts. Dagegen dauern die Trendbewegungen meist länger,25-40 Minuten,bevor Gewinnmitnahmen auftreten.

Aufgrund der Kürze der Bewegung empfiehlt es sich auch,am Vormittag mit kleineren Charteinheiten zu arbeiten als am Nachmittag. Ein weiteres Merkmal am Vormittag ist die Schnelligkeit der Bewegung.Diese setzt die Bereitschaft zum Drehen der eigenen Position voraus,sowie eine entsprechende Mentalität,um Erfolg zu haben.

Hilfreich ist es auch,wenn man von vorhinein von bestimmten Einstiegs-und auch Ausstiegspunkten ausgeht und diese gleich an den Markt gibt.Viele Trader zögern mit Ausstiegspunkten zu arbeiten,wenn sie im Gewinn sind,weil sie sich ärgern,Geld liegen zu lassen.Auf Dauer zahlt es sich jedoch aus,denn der häufigere Fall ist einfach der,daß es zu einem Reversal kommt und der Großteil der Gewinne wieder verschwindet.Für die Gewinnziele bietet sich die Beachtung der Marktsymmetrie an.

http://www.trader24.info/daytraden/vormittag.html

Trifft es ziemlich genau

Antworten
SAKU:

Mal was anderes...

3
29.08.07 13:01
wenn ich dir mal n büschn Gedankenmüll im Thread abladen darf, mm.... wenn nicht, sag bescheid, is nicht so schlimm... Nach drei Tagen hör ich meist auf, zu heulen ;o)

Vor etwa einem Jahr waren wir bei pimmalungefähr 5800 Punkten bei Dachsine und etwa 11300 beim Dau. Da war dann mal eben immer die Frage, ob denn 7dausend bzw. 12dausend in irgendeiner Weise auch nur annährend erreicht werden können und wie das gerechtfertigt sei und was passieren muss damit und warum überhaupt.

Dann stehen wir HEUTE bei 13dausend und 7400 und haben fürchterbare Panik, da 12000 und 6600 das Ende der Welt bedeuten würden...


p.s.: Die im Posting eventuell genannten user-nicks und die Zusammenhänge, in welchen sie genannt werden, basieren auf einer empirisch durchgeführten Vermutung. Sie stellen daher nicht den Tatbestand der Verunglimpfung her, obwohl es mit Sicherheit möglich wäre, bestimmte Rückschlüsse zwischen den usern und den vermuteten Verunglimpfungen, so es denn Verungimpfungen sein sollten, was noch nicht bewiesen ist, zu ziehen, die hier jedoch nicht gezogen werden und auch nicht angedeutet werden, da sonst....

...ach, leckt mich doch urheberrechtlich am Ars*h! Wenn ihr es löschen wollt, macht doch!

__________________________________________________
VIVA ARIVA
Antworten
Megamillion:

Saku natürlich darfst du Gedankenmüll abladen

 
29.08.07 13:05
ist eine interessante Anschaungsart.

Was ich aber nicht verstehe bei deinem Text

p.s.: Die im Posting eventuell genannten user-nicks und die Zusammenhänge, in welchen sie genannt werden, basieren auf einer empirisch durchgeführten Vermutung. Sie stellen daher nicht den Tatbestand der Verunglimpfung her, obwohl es mit Sicherheit möglich wäre, bestimmte Rückschlüsse zwischen den usern und den vermuteten Verunglimpfungen, so es denn Verungimpfungen sein sollten, was noch nicht bewiesen ist, zu ziehen, die hier jedoch nicht gezogen werden und auch nicht angedeutet werden, da sonst....

...ach, leckt mich doch urheberrechtlich am Ars*h! Wenn ihr es löschen wollt, macht doch!

Gehört wohl nicht hier rein oder?
Antworten
Pichel:

zu #28

2
29.08.07 13:08
zu Beachten ist auch, das ab 10/10:30 eine Gegentendenz einsetzt, das heißt, das vom Vornachmittag/-abend/-nacht die Tendenz abgearbeitet ist!!



_____________________________

Gruß Pichel

Die Aktienbörse ist heute eine gigantische Spekulation. Alle spielen, wenige verstehen das Spiel und noch weniger ziehen daraus Nutzen. (E.Burke, 1729-97)

Antworten
SAKU:

Hat was mit dem Forum zu tun...

3
29.08.07 13:11
Hier haben einige Probleme mit ihren kleinen ... nein, nicht S*hwänzen, sondern Egos. Es gibt Meldelisten, Widersprüche, Meckereeien, Sperren... Und dies is nun die überspitzte Antwort darauf. Bleib ja hier oben im Börsenforum - "da unten" ist's nix für newbies, wird man nur abhängig ;o)

So... und jetzt geh ich mir mal wieder mein Dope holen...




p.s.: Die im Posting eventuell genannten user-nicks und die Zusammenhänge, in welchen sie genannt werden, basieren auf einer empirisch durchgeführten Vermutung. Sie stellen daher nicht den Tatbestand der Verunglimpfung her, obwohl es mit Sicherheit möglich wäre, bestimmte Rückschlüsse zwischen den usern und den vermuteten Verunglimpfungen, so es denn Verungimpfungen sein sollten, was noch nicht bewiesen ist, zu ziehen, die hier jedoch nicht gezogen werden und auch nicht angedeutet werden, da sonst....

...ach, leckt mich doch urheberrechtlich am Ars*h! Wenn ihr es löschen wollt, macht doch!

__________________________________________________
VIVA ARIVA
Antworten
Megamillion:

Pichel soll also heißen wenn ich das richtig

 
29.08.07 13:13
interpretiere daß alle offenen Order des nachbörslichen Vortageshandels und die Opening-Orders (Tendenzbestätigend) dort in etwa abgearbeitet sein sollten und somit eine prozentual hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Gegenlaufs gegeben ist.

Würde sich mit meiner Tendenz überschneiden auch wenn die Stärke der Gegentendenz natürlich im ersten Moment nicht klar zu definieren ist.

Antworten
Pichel:

Ja, aber die kleinen orders sind es nicht

2
29.08.07 13:22
es sind die "Großen" (Fonds, FuturesTrader), die noch "abarbeiten"
Danach ist eine Gegentendenz "möglich!", oder aber auch nicht ;-)


_____________________________

Gruß Pichel

Die Aktienbörse ist heute eine gigantische Spekulation. Alle spielen, wenige verstehen das Spiel und noch weniger ziehen daraus Nutzen. (E.Burke, 1729-97)

(Verkleinert auf 94%) vergrößern
Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 117251
Antworten
Megamillion:

Und passend Nachmittags-Trading

2
29.08.07 13:24
Die Geheimnisse des Nachmittags-Handels

Fast an allen Nachmittagen ergibt sich ein größerer Trend.Dieser hat den Vorteil,daß er wesentlich glatter ist als die Trends am Vormittag und daher leichter auszunutzen.

Gab es am Morgen eine größere Bewegung,dann wird es am Nachmittag auch eine größere in dieselbe Richtung geben,es sei denn,es sind wichtige News herausgekommen,die den Markt in die andere Richtung drücken.Der Grund ist das Herdenverhalten der Fond-Manager,die nach Gewinnen der Konkurrenten am Vormittag jetzt auch noch in dieselbe Richtung handeln wollen.

Es braucht einige Erfahrung,den Beginn des Nachmittags-Trends festzustellen.Denn der Beginn variiert zeitlich stark.Er kann schon kurz nach der Mittagspause auftreten gegen 14.00 Uhr oder sogar 13.30 Uhr.

Meist wird er aber auch erst auftreten,wenn die Bonds schließen,am häufigsten tritt er kurz nach 15.10 Uhr auf,also schon relativ spät,wenn die Märkte sich auf den Close zubewegen.
So gut wie nie vor 13.00 Uhr,alles in New Yorker Zeit.In jedem Fall aber wird es vorher noch eine Gegenbewegung in die falsche Richtung geben,was ein wichtiges Indiz ist.

Normalerweise ist der Nachmittagstrend zeitlich kürzer als der am Vormittag,häufig die Hälfte.Bei einem Trendtag wird er normalerweise in dieselbe Richtung gehen,es sei denn,es sind neue News hereingekommen.Auf jeden Fall ist der Trend am Nachmittag reiner und daher einfacher zu traden,was dem Trader Gelegenheit gibt,eventuelle Verluste am Vormittag auszugleichen.

Abwärtsbewegungen am Nachmittag haben eine starke Tendenz,sich fortzusetzen. Aufwärtsbewegungen nach einer scharfen Abwärtsbewegung sind daher günstige Short-Gelegenheiten.Ist der Markt dagegen am Vormittag oder zu Mittag auf den Nachmittag hin gesunken,dann tritt meist eine Erholung am späteren Nachmittag auf.

90% aller Trends am Nachmittag dauern zwischen 15 Minuten und einer Stunde.Gelegentlich gibt es sehr schnelle Trends von zehn Minuten,die dann fast immer sehr steil sind.Trends von mehr als einer Stunde kommen nur an ausgesprochenen Trend-Tagen vor.

Der Nachmittags-Trend kommt im Schnitt an drei von fünf Trading-Tagen vor.Man muß also entscheiden,wann man nicht tradet,dies ist aber meist relativ einfach,da man eben dem Trend, wenn er erscheint,hier trauen darf.Man kann auch mit Trendindikatoren arbeiten.

                                                       
Ursachen des Nachmittags-Trends

Die Hauptursache liegt darind,daß der Index in erster Linie von den Institutionellen bewegt wird.Diese sind angestellt und dürfen sich nicht dabei erwischen lassen,daß sie Kasse halten,während der Markt steigt,oder daß sie sich nicht absichern,wenn er fällt.Nehmen wir also an,der Dow sei am Vormittag um 50 Punkte gestiegen,dann sind sie praktisch gezwungen,falls nicht irgendeine wichtige Neuigkeit kommt,am Nachmittag zu kaufen,falls sie dies am Vormittag noch nicht taten,um sich nicht sagen zu lassen,daß sie den Tagestrend verschlafen haben,und bei 6000 Funds,vielen Banken und Brokern,usw.,ganz zu schweigen von den Versicherungen,gibt es immer viele,die den Vormittagstrend verschlafen.
Ein weiterer Punkt ist der,daß der Index,also das Aktientraden,um 16.00 Uhr Ostküstenzeit schließt,wohingegen der Future erst um 16.15 Uhr schließt.Diejenigen Fundsmanager,die nicht gekauft haben,weil ihre Limit - Orders nicht ausgeführt wurden,sind jetzt gezwungen,in diesen 15 Minuten im Futuremarkt abzusichern,d.h. long zu gehen für den Fall,daß die Kurse weitersteigen,und es gibt am nächsten Tag im Normalfall einen Follow Through,da über Nacht viele Leerverkäufer sich entschließen,die Position glattzustellen.
In der letzten Stunde kommt es verstärkt zur Arbitrage zwischen Futures und Index. Dies ist der Hauptgrund dafür,daß sich Trends,die sich in den ersten 20 Minuten der letzten Stunde entwickeln,meist gegen 15.30 Uhr drehen.Dies ist sehr wichtig,da die meisten Börsenbeobachter den Fehler begehen,sich auf die Zeit zwischen 15.00 Uhr und 15.50 Uhr zu konzentrieren und annehmen,daß Bewegungen hier bis zum Schluß weitergehen werden.
Antworten
Megamillion:

Dow Jones Vormittags-Trading

 
29.08.07 17:22

Das Schwierigste ist das Traden kurz nach dem Open in den ersten zehn Minuten,jedoch ergibt sich 20-30 Minuten nach der Eröffnung eine zweite Chance: Hier entwickelt sich der erste wirkliche Trend in den meisten Fällen.

Diese Trendbewegung dauert meist etwas mehr als eine Stunde,worauf dann langsam schon die Mittagsphase beginnt,die von einem trendlosen Verhalten gekennzeichnet ist und vielem Jagen von Stops.

Ein weiterer Schlüsel,besonders am frühen Vormittag,ist die Zeit,die Rallyes und Korrekturen benötigen.Eine Korrektur gegen den Trend sollte hier in der Regel nicht länger als 25 Minuten dauern,meist weniger.Dauert sie länger,so besteht eine große Wahrscheinlichkeit,daß der Trend gewendet hat.Auch gibt es so gut wie niemals längere Seitwärtsbewegungen am frühen Vormittag und auch selten am späten.Man sollte also eine Bewegung,auch wenn die eigenen Stops noch nicht ausgelöst sind,nie länger als 15-20 Minuten gegen sich laufen lassen oder seitwärts. Dagegen dauern die Trendbewegungen meist länger,25-40 Minuten,bevor Gewinnmitnahmen auftreten.

Die größeren Trend-Tage haben entweder eine sehr kleine Opening Range oder machen schon einen Großteil der Bewegung direkt an die Eröffnung anschließend,ohne direkt zurückzukommen.Hilfreich bei der Beurteilung des sich entwickelnden Tages ist immer der Umstand,daß an den meisten Tagen ein Extrem des Bars am Vormittag gemacht wird. Ein weiteres Motiv ist die zeitliche Lage der News.Das sind nicht nur die News,die den Aktienmarkt insgesamt betreffen,wie Fed-Veröffentlichungen oder Konjunkturmeldungen, sondern auch Neuigkeiten von größeren Firmen,die eine Ausstrahlung auf Branchen haben,die dann wieder den Dow oder den Nasdaq bewegen können,usw.

Kann man mal unter Umständen in den heutigen Verlauf rein interpretieren und vergleichen.

 

Antworten
Megamillion:

Wenn der ausgebildete Trend sich fortführen

 
29.08.07 17:40
kann heute dann sollte man sich nicht entgegenstellen und auch mal die Seite wechseln.

Sollte nur eine Anregung sein.
Antworten
Megamillion:

Der Trend hat sich fortgeführt im Dow Industrial

 
30.08.07 08:36
und ich hoffe es wurde auch wie angemerkt mal die Seite gewechselt in einem intakten Uptrend auch Intraday.

Man darf sehr gespannt sein auf die Eröffnung und ich erinnere auch an die Postings 28,31 und 33.

(Verkleinert auf 93%) vergrößern
Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 117412
Antworten
Megamillion:

Bernanke May Hear Call for Fed Activism on Assets

 
30.08.07 08:47
Bernanke May Hear Call for Fed Activism on Assets, Regulation

By Scott Lanman and John Fraher

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may be urged to consider tighter regulation as he and his counterparts clean up the financial mess from U.S. subprime- mortgage defaults.

The central bank's hands-off approach to using interest rates to pop asset bubbles and reluctance to impose new rules will come under scrutiny as policy makers and economists from around the world gather for the Fed's annual symposium starting today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Forcing more disclosure about the quality of assets behind the securities that became the flashpoint of the credit crisis will be one option floated at the conference, participants and Fed watchers said. A more complete picture might better guide monetary policy and help Bernanke deliver more accurate cues to the public.

``It's extremely important that he provide some signal that the Fed has been chastened by these events,'' said Tom Schlesinger, head of the Financial Markets Center, a Howardsville, Virginia-based group that researches the Fed. Bernanke needs to consider ``a substantial rethinking of the assumptions and practices that led us to this point,'' he said.

While the Fed chief may be reluctant to alter his views in the middle of the subprime fallout, he is likely to be probed by central bankers and economists flying in to the mountain retreat. The conference's theme is housing and monetary policy, and Bernanke delivers the opening speech tomorrow.

Chatter at the Bar

``The questions at least need to be asked and seriously examined,'' said Michael Mussa, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist who will attend the event and is now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. ``The issue will come up in the discussions at the conference and the bar afterwards.''

The first hints of whether Bernanke will entertain any changes may come when he addresses the conference. Tonight he delivers welcoming remarks at dinner, and tomorrow he speaks on housing and monetary policy at 10 a.m. New York time. The next day, Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin presents a paper on ``Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism.''

The Jackson Hole gathering is traditionally attended by most Fed governors and district-bank presidents. Nine years ago, former Chairman Alan Greenspan held private talks with officials there that paved the way for an interest-rate cut weeks later. The action followed a credit crunch triggered by Russia's debt default.

This time, policy makers arrive as continuing stress in credit markets spurs calls for a rate reduction.

Loose Standards

The Fed underestimated the impact of the slide in securities backed by subprime mortgages, minutes of their Aug. 7 meeting showed two days ago. Investors shunned the debt in the wake of rising delinquencies that officials now concede were stoked by loose lending standards.

While the Fed reduced the cost of direct loans to banks on Aug. 17 to help contain the credit crunch, officials have kept the benchmark rate at 5.25 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee next meets Sept. 18.

Bernanke is already getting plenty of advice from key U.S. lawmakers who oversee the Fed. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd summoned Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to an hour-long meeting Aug. 21, saying afterward Bernanke agreed to use ``all of the tools at his disposal'' to restore stability.

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, who is convening a hearing on the market turmoil Sept. 5 with Fed and Treasury officials, told reporters Aug. 21 the session will focus on lessons learned and whether regulations are ``in need of updating.''

Policy Advice

In Jackson Hole, speakers include Otmar Issing, the former European Central Bank chief economist who argues that, when asset prices balloon, policy makers should raise interest rates.

William White, head of the monetary and economics department at the Bank for International Settlements, also says central banks pay too much attention to consumer-price inflation and not enough to asset prices. He speaks on housing finance tomorrow.

Bernanke, a former Princeton University economics professor, first appeared at Jackson Hole in 1999, with a paper arguing that central banks shouldn't target asset prices except when they affect the economy as a whole. He's repeated that since becoming chairman. Many American peers still agree.

``I'm not so convinced that this episode is a strike against that,'' said former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, now a Princeton economist. ``Whatever has happened, it hasn't been caused by an implosion of housing prices.''

More Disclosures

Aside from considering a greater focus on asset prices, the Fed needs to explore whether it should coax or require additional disclosures from banks and hedge funds, according to some observers.

``The Fed has to obviously work to get much better information about how securitization is working and have a better feeling for what's going on in these asset markets,'' said David Hale, an economist and regular at the Jackson Hole conference.

The ``big debate'' will be about how subprime mortgages were turned into gold-plated securities, especially the collateralized debt obligations that have caused the headaches, said Hale, president of Hale Advisors LLC in Chicago.

To contact the reporters on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net ; John Fraher in London at jfraher@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: August 30, 2007 00:04 EDT  
Antworten
Megamillion:

German Equity Preview

 
30.08.07 08:49
Altana, Fielmann, Fortune Management: German Equity Preview

By Nadja Brandt and Henrietta Rumberger

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The following stocks may rise or fall in German markets. Stock symbols are in parentheses after the company names and prices are from the Xetra close unless otherwise stated.

DAX futures expiring in September gained 46.50, or 0.6 percent, to 7,498 at 8:17 a.m. in Frankfurt. The DAX added 0.1 percent to 7,439.18 on the Xetra electronic-trading system.

Air Berlin Plc (AB1 GY): ABN Amro Holding NV raised its recommendation on shares of Europe's third-biggest discount airline to ``buy'' from ``hold.'' The shares climbed 1.08 euros, or 9.3 percent, to 12.75 euros.

Altana AG (ALT GY): UBS AG raised its recommendation on shares of the chemicals maker that sold its pharmaceuticals unit in December to ``buy'' from ``neutral.'' The stock lost 9 cents, or 0.6 percent, to 15.90 euros.

DaimlerChrysler AG (DAI GY): UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking raised its price estimate on shares of the world's second-largest maker of luxury cars 3.8 percent to 82 euros. The stock added 59 cents, or 0.9 percent, to 63.26 euros.

Fielmann AG (FIE GY): Europe's largest chain of eyeglass stores said second-quarter profit rose 10 percent to 16.4 million euros ($22.5 million) after the company opened additional stores. The shares fell 29 cents, or 0.6 percent, to 45.76 euros.

Fortune Management Inc. (FMI1 GY): The private-equity company posted a half-year loss before minority interests of 11 million euros compared with a profit of 11.3 million euros for the year-earlier period. The shares were unchanged at 1.10 euros.

Premiere AG (PRE GY): Dresdner Kleinwort raised its price projection on shares of Germany's biggest pay-television broadcaster 2.7 percent to 15 euros. The stock increased 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to 15.23 euros.

TAG Tegernsee Immobilien und Beteiligungs AG (TEG GY): The property company said second-quarter profit surged to 5.17 million euros from 509,000 euros a year earlier. The shares were unchanged at 8.20 euros.

Versatel AG (VTW GY): Credit Suisse cut its recommendation on shares of the phone and Internet access provider that went public in April to ``neutral'' from ``outperform.'' JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its share-price estimate to 12.5 euros from 27 euros. Versatel shares retreated 10 cents, or 1 percent, to 10.40 euros.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nadja Brandt in Los Angeles at nbrandt@bloomberg.net ; Henrietta Rumberger in Frankfurt at hrumberger@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 30, 2007 02:30 EDT  
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Megamillion:

Pivot-Trading aktuelle Pivots

 
30.08.07 09:00
(Verkleinert auf 78%) vergrößern
Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 117417
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Megamillion:

Pivot-Trading 3. Tag

 
31.08.07 08:55
Vorgestern Eröffnung am letzten Support und Ausbildung eines Aufwärtstrend.

Gestern Eröffnung im Aufwärtstrend am 1. Resist und nach dem Pivottest weitere Bestätigung des Aufwärtstrend mit übersteigen des Resist 1 und 2.

Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 3537314

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Megamillion:

Weil es aktuell passt als Gedankenunterstützung

 
31.08.07 13:10

Wir hatten heute einen kleinen Abwärtstrend bis 12 Uhr. Die letzten 60 Minuten ging es steil bergauf.

 

Ein weiterer Schlüsel,besonders am frühen Vormittag,ist die Zeit,die Rallys und Korrekturen benötigen.

Eine Korrektur gegen den Trend sollte hier in der Regel nicht länger als 25 Minuten dauern,meist weniger.

Dauert sie länger,so besteht eine große Wahrscheinlichkeit,daß der Trend gewendet hat!!!!

 

 

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Megamillion:

Before the Bell #U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise#

 
31.08.07 13:22
U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise; Starbucks, Amazon.com, Dell Gain

By Andreas Hippin

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures climbed before President George W. Bush announces measures today to help people with subprime mortgages, easing concern the housing slump will deepen and hurt consumer sentiment.

Starbucks Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. advanced in Europe, pacing gains by companies sensitive to changes in private consumption. Dell Inc., the second-largest maker of personal computers, rose after its earnings beat analysts' estimates.

Bush will let the Federal Housing Administration, which insures mortgages for low- and middle-income borrowers, guarantee loans for delinquent borrowers, giving them the chance to avoid foreclosure and refinance at more favorable rates, according to an administration official.

``This is a clear signal that the government wants to help households in distress,'' said Carsten Klude, who helps manage $20 billion as head of investment strategies at M.M. Warburg & Co. in Hamburg. ``That's good news because it eases concern that private consumption may falter.''

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in September increased 14.4 to 1,476 as of 11:42 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 105 to 13,384. Nasdaq-100 Index futures jumped 20.75 to 1,995.5.

The S&P 500 has dropped 6.2 percent from a record high reached July 19 on concern mortgage defaults caused by the steepest U.S. housing slump in 16 years will increase borrowing costs, slowing economic growth. U.S. stocks fell yesterday after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said rising credit costs may reduce bank profits and Freddie Mac predicted the housing market will keep languishing.

Federal Reserve Policy

The first hints of whether Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will consider any changes in monetary policy may come today when he addresses the annual symposium organized by the Kansas City Fed bank in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Bernanke will be delivering the opening speech on housing and monetary policy at 10 a.m. New York time.

Starbucks, the largest chain of coffee shops, added 16 cents to $27.51. Amazon.com, the biggest online retailer, advanced 35 cents to $79.03.

Dell increased 50 cents to $28.96. Second-quarter net income was 32 cents a share, the Round Rock, Texas-based company said after the market close yesterday. Sales totaled $14.8 billion, topping the $14.6 billion average projection in a Bloomberg survey. Profit estimates averaged 31 cents.

Dell's earnings were ``impressive,'' said Herbert Perus, who helps oversee the equivalent of $57 billion as head of global equities at Raiffeisen Capital Management in Vienna. ``Technology stocks are back after being out of fashion for years.''

Technology Shares Gain

Separately, Taiwan's Quanta Computer Inc., the world's largest maker of notebook computers, reported second-quarter profit that doubled on increased sales of laptops to customers such as Hewlett-Packard Co. and Dell.

Apple Inc., whose iTunes store is the most popular source of online music, advanced $2.08 to $138.33. Cisco Systems Inc., the biggest maker of computer-networking equipment, gained 26 cents to $31.69. EMC Corp., the largest maker of storage computers, rose 15 cents to $19.73.

OmniVision Technologies Inc. climbed $2.21 to $22.12. The maker of image sensors for camera phones said yesterday that, excluding some items, it expects to earn at least 34 cents a share in the second quarter. That tops the 23 cent average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

Open Text Corp. advanced $2.33 to $22.45. The maker of software to help companies manage documents said profit excluding some items was 52 cents a share in the fiscal fourth quarter. The average estimate from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 39 cents.

Consumer Spending

Personal spending in the U.S. probably picked up in July, increasing 0.3 percent, three times the gain in June, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Commerce Department report may also show incomes rose 0.3 percent following a 0.4 percent advance in June, according to the median estimate of economists.

The report's price gauge tied to spending patterns and excluding food and energy costs -- the Fed's preferred measure of inflation -- probably rose 2 percent from July 2006, up from 1.9 percent in June, which was the smallest 12-month increase since 2004. The Commerce Department report will be released at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andreas Hippin in Frankfurt at ahippin@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: August 31, 2007 07:04 EDT  
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Megamillion:

#Shortoption Dax 7643#

 
31.08.07 15:58
Unter der Prämisse eines gerade absolvierten Intraday-Shortsqueezes.

Absicherung nahe des heutigen Resist 3 (Pivots) 7674

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Trichet und die Zinsen

 
04.09.07 08:34
Trichet May Postpone Rate Increase to Assess Impact of Markets

By Matthew Brockett

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet has made a habit out of telling investors what to expect on interest rates. Now markets are dictating the terms.

Trichet, unsure of how the soaring cost of corporate borrowing will affect Europe's economy, may shelve an interest- rate increase planned for this week, analysts said. Confidence among consumers and companies has already taken a hit, reports on Aug. 31 showed.

``Markets haven't settled enough for the ECB to hike rates,'' said Michiel de Bruin, head of government bonds at the Netherlands unit of London-based F&C Asset Management. ``You have to be very sure there'll be no impact on the real economy from this crisis, and it's too soon to say that.''

Economists say Trichet will wait. Just 11 out of 55 surveyed by Bloomberg News predict a quarter-point increase when the 19- member governing council meets in Frankfurt on Sept. 6.

``Everyone was expecting a rate rise in September because Trichet signaled one,'' said Stewart Robertson, an economist at Morley Fund Management Ltd. in London. ``Things have changed. In the current circumstances, it would be an absolutely bloody- minded thing to do.''

Trichet, 65, has flagged the past eight rate increases by pledging ``strong vigilance'' on inflation. He used those words at a press conference on Aug. 2, signaling rates would rise in September for the ninth time since late 2005.

He retracted the remark on Aug. 27, saying the ECB isn't ``pre-committed'' to higher rates. ``What I said Aug. 2 was before market turbulences.''

Stocks Drop

The Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index declined 11 percent between July 19 and Aug. 16 as credit became more expensive. Overnight borrowing costs between banks in Europe rose as high as 4.62 percent on Aug. 9, compared with the ECB's benchmark rate of 4 percent, prompting the central bank to inject cash into money markets.

``Economic fundamentals still suggest the ECB ought to raise rates, but it can't ignore what's happened on financial markets,'' said Sandra Petcov, an economist at Lehman Brothers International in London. ``There's been a substantial re-pricing of risk and if banks tighten lending standards for households and firms, that could result in the equivalent of a rate increase.''

Trichet's challenge may be easier than that confronting U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who is under pressure to cut rates to shore up the economy, said Annamaria Grimaldi, an economist at Intesa Sanpaolo SpA in Milan.

`Act as Needed'

``The Fed is faced with the possibility of having to invert its monetary policy, but in Europe, even if rates are left unchanged in September, it's probably just a matter of postponing'' an increase, Grimaldi said.

Bernanke told the Kansas City Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 31 that he'll do what's needed to prevent the credit rout from undoing the six-year American economic expansion.

The Bank of Japan has already stepped back from raising rates and economists expect the Bank of England to leave its benchmark rate at 5.75 percent on Sept. 6, the same day the ECB meets.

``The ECB will reluctantly keep rates at 4 percent, while hinting at the possibility to resume tightening as soon as markets return to normal,'' said Aurelio Maccario, an economist at UniCredit SpA in Milan. ``The ECB's main intention remains to keep inflationary risks in check.''

Inflation Concerns

The Frankfurt-based ECB is concerned inflation will accelerate beyond its 2 percent limit after the economy expanded at the fastest pace since the turn of the decade last year, giving companies more room to raise prices and wages. Money supply growth, which the bank sees as a gauge of future inflation, accelerated to the fastest pace in 28 years in July.

The ECB will publish new growth and inflation forecasts on Sept. 6. It currently expects the euro-region economy to grow about 2.6 percent in 2007 and 2.3 percent in 2008, while inflation is forecast to average about 2 percent this year and next. The bank aims to keep inflation below 2 percent.

There is evidence that the fallout from the U.S. housing- market slump is hurting Europe. Consumer and business confidence dropped more than economists forecast in August, while manufacturing and service-industry growth slowed.

BNP Role

Credit-market turmoil worsened after BNP Paribas SA acknowledged its vulnerability to increasing defaults on U.S. subprime mortgages, which are aimed at borrowers with a poor credit history. Two German banks have since required emergency funding because of their exposure to sub-prime losses.

The ECB and other central banks injected more than $350 billion of extra funds into money markets between Aug. 9 and Aug. 14 to smooth lending between banks. While that succeeded in reducing the overnight rate at which banks lend cash to each other in Europe, three-month rates remain at a six-year high.

``Raising rates in this environment of unrest would send the wrong signal,'' said de Bruin. ``Maybe the ECB will end its tightening cycle sooner than it originally intended.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Frankfurt at smeier@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 2, 2007 19:04 EDT  
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Dt. Bank, Dt. Boerse, Kunert German Equity Preview

 
04.09.07 08:39
Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Kunert: German Equity Preview

By Christian Vits and Henrietta Rumberger

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The following stocks may rise or fall in German markets today. Stock symbols are in parentheses after the company names and prices are from the Xetra close unless otherwise stated.

DAX futures expiring in September retreated 15.50, or 0.2 percent, to 7647 at 8:15 a.m. in Frankfurt. The DAX climbed 10.41, or 0.1 percent, to 7,648.58 on the Xetra electronic- trading system.

Adidas AG (ADS GY): Credit Suisse Group raised its price estimate for shares of the world's second-largest sporting goods maker to 57.48 euros from 55 euros. The stock gained 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to 43.17 euros.

AWD Holding AG (AWD GY): Nils Frowein, formerly MLP AG's chief financial officer, will become CFO at the rival financial- services broker, Boersen-Zeitung reported, citing unidentified people in the financial industry. AWD shares retreated 6 cents, or 0.2 percent, to 24.69 euros.

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK GY): Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann is scheduled to deliver a speech at a banking conference in Frankfurt. The shares gained 89 cents, or 1 percent, to 91.52 euros.

Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1 GY): Chief Executive Officer Reto Francioni will hold a speech at a banking event in Frankfurt. The shares fell 31 cents, or 0.4 percent to 80.69 euros.

Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE GY): Europe's largest phone company said it is interested in helping build a fiber-optic network in Australia. The Bonn-based company would consider building the high-speed network as part of a group, according to a letter posted yesterday on the Web site of Australia's Department of Communications, Information Technology and the Arts. Telekom shares increased 2 cents, or 0.2 percent, to 13.66 euros.

Kunert AG (KUN GY): German textile manufacturer Kunert AG said its marketing head, Michael Stoermer, will leave the company today. The decision was an amicable arrangement, the Immenstadt, Germany-based company wrote in a statement on DGAP wire today. The shares declined 3 cents, or 1.5 percent to 1.95 euros.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Vits in Frankfurt cvits@bloomberg.net ; Henrietta Rumberger in Frankfurt at hrumberger@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: September 4, 2007 02:33 EDT  
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Megamillion:

Dow Industrial in Euro tiefer als Dax in Dollar

 
04.09.07 08:53
Unter diesen Aspekten erscheinen die deutschen Aktien Fair bewertet.



Gebt den Fallenstellern keine Chance 118230
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Megamillion:

Island Gap im Future DowIndustry

 
13.09.07 14:44
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Bernanke Weighs Recession Risk Against Investor

 
18.09.07 08:18
Bernanke Weighs Recession Risk Against Investor Cave-In Charge

By Steve Matthews

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will probably cut its benchmark interest rate today for the first time in four years, seeking insurance against a recession. The main question is how big a policy Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is ready to buy.

While a quarter-point reduction in the federal funds rate may not be enough to bolster growth and investor confidence, a half-point cut might fan inflation and be perceived as giving in to pressure from Wall Street firms that made bad bets, especially in the market for securities backed by subprime mortgages.

Bernanke and fellow policy makers ``are really caught,'' said Robert Eisenbeis, a former research director at the Fed's bank in Atlanta who attended meetings of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee before retiring early this year. ``The Fed needs to avoid the perception of bailing out the markets, lenders or borrowers.''

The FOMC will opt today for a quarter-point cut to 5 percent in the rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans, according to the median prediction of 134 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Twenty-three of the forecasters projected a half-point move, which traders think is coming sooner or later: Interest-rate futures indicate a rate of 4.5 percent by year-end. The decision is scheduled for about 2:15 p.m. in Washington.

Most-Analyzed Statement

Whatever today's decision, the statement accompanying it may be the most-analyzed in years. Reports portray a weakening economy: The Labor Department said Sept. 7 that that the U.S. last month suffered its first job losses since 2003. Investors will look for hints of further cuts -- such as a pledge to act as needed to safeguard the six-year expansion -- or language that plays down the risk of higher inflation.

``The markets will be disappointed by 25 basis points,'' said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. ``If they do more now, they may be more cautiously optimistic in the statement. If they do 25 basis points, they will commit to doing more. You can argue it either way for which is the more powerful.''

The Fed's decision today will come hours after the government report on August wholesale prices; the Consumer Price Index is released tomorrow. As recently as the last FOMC meeting Aug. 7, officials said inflation was the ``predominant'' risk to the U.S. economy.

Just 10 days later, the Fed acknowledged that ``downside risks to growth have increased appreciably'' and pledged to ``act as needed.'' Policy makers will probably use similar language today, economists said.

`A Considerable Amount'

``The statement will point to the growth rate as the predominant policy influence and give the market the flexibility to price in a considerable amount of easing,'' said Brian Sack, vice president at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington and a former Fed economist.

Bernanke, 53, and his team may take additional steps to increase liquidity, including lowering the discount rate --which the fed charges on loans it makes to banks -- or altering terms for collateral used for loans from the central bank, economists said.

In their public comments, Fed officials have diverged in their assessments of risks to growth, making today's meeting particularly tough for analysts to handicap.

Since the August jobs report, Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen have highlighted threats to consumer spending. By contrast, Fed bank Presidents Richard Fisher in Dallas and Charles Plosser in Philadelphia noted signs of resilience in the economy.

No Cave-In

At the same time, all agree the Fed doesn't want to be seen as caving in to funds that piled into the market for securities linked to subprime mortgages, those made to borrowers with poor or limited credit histories.

As defaults on such loans climbed, investors fled, making it tough for some companies to obtain credit; the market for asset-backed commercial paper shrank the most in at least seven years.

``It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve --nor would it be appropriate -- to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions,'' Bernanke said in an Aug. 31 speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Anything seen as a bailout might increase ``moral hazard'' -- spurring investors to take on even more risk, comfortable in the belief the Fed will make good their losses.

Rivlin Regrets

Former officials including Alice Rivlin, who was a Fed vice chairman under Bernanke's predecessor Alan Greenspan, have expressed regret over cutting rates three times in 1998. The economy continued to expand with little harm from turmoil in financial markets at the time, data later showed.

``The moral hazard argument is a powerful one,'' said Philip Orlando, who helps manage $260 billion as chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors Inc. in New York. As a result, he predicted, ``the market is wont to be disappointed'' by today's decision.

Others say policy makers will focus more on the recent economic data showing signs of a sputtering economy. Besides the decline in August payrolls, retail sales and industrial production rose less than forecast last month, and the Commerce Department may say tomorrow that builders broke ground on the fewest new homes since 1995.

Bernanke and fellow policy makers ``are trying to step away from the Greenspan model,'' said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc. in Chicago. ``But at the end of the day, they will act the same.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Steve Matthews at slanman@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: September 18, 2007 00:03 EDT  
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Worst Wall Street Quarter Since 2001

 
18.09.07 08:20
Worst Wall Street Quarter Since 2001 Tempered by Goldman's Gain

By Christine Harper

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street's third quarter would be the worst since 2001 if it weren't for the timely sale of a power company by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Bear Stearns Cos. probably will report a 41 percent drop in earnings per share, Morgan Stanley may post an 11 percent decline and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may say profit fell 5.1 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Goldman's earnings probably jumped 33 percent after a gain of as much as $1 billion from the sale of Horizon Wind Energy LLC.

Fixed-income trading, the industry's biggest source of revenue, faltered as sales of mortgage and asset-backed securities dropped 36 percent in the quarter, Lehman estimates. Banks also stopped financing new leveraged buyouts, which provided $8.4 billion of fees in the first half, as they struggle to clear a backlog of $350 billion in loan commitments. While revenue from takeover advice, stock trading and underwriting probably rose, it may not make up for writedowns to reflect the declining value of corporate loans and mortgage bonds.

``This is a more important period than the turbulence of 2001,'' said Peter Solomon, chairman and founder of New York- based investment bank Peter J. Solomon Co. and a former executive at New York-based Lehman. ``This is credit and this is risk. This turmoil is aimed right at the heart of their business, so everybody is interested in how they have managed.''

If the analysts are right, and they've underestimated the firms' profits for the past six quarters, it would be the worst year-on-year decline in earnings per share since the second quarter of 2005. When Goldman is excluded, it becomes the biggest drop since the fourth quarter of 2001.

Trading Whole Companies

UBS AG analyst Glenn Schorr is including Goldman's gain in profit estimates because buying and selling companies now is as much a part of how Wall Street makes money as trading stocks. Goldman's fixed-income revenue in the second quarter of 2006 reflected its profit from selling a power plant in Linden, New Jersey. In the fourth quarter, the New York-based firm included the $500 million made on the sale of Japan's Accordia Golf Co., which now trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Goldman, the world's largest securities firm by market value, recorded the $2.15 billion sale of Horizon Wind to EDP- Energias de Portugal SA in the third quarter. Analysts have to estimate the size of the gain because Goldman never disclosed how much it paid for Houston-based Horizon Wind in March 2005. Schorr figures it's between $750 million and $1 billion.

While Bear Stearns also runs a merchant-banking business, investors don't expect it to provide enough of a boost to offset the impact of subprime-mortgage defaults. Shares of the New York-based firm, the second-largest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds, have lost almost a third of their value this year and are on track for their biggest annual decline since 1987.

Profit Headwind

Lehman has fallen 24 percent, which would be the firm's steepest drop since its initial public offering in 1994. Goldman has fallen 4.4 percent, the biggest decline since 2002, and New York-based Morgan Stanley is down 2.2 percent.

``It's definitely going to be rough,'' said Ralph Cole, who helps manage $2.7 billion, including shares of Goldman and Merrill Lynch & Co., at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management in Portland, Oregon. ``The easiest money has been made. They had an incredible tailwind, but now it all seems like headwind.''

While Cole said the securities industry probably reached its earnings peak for this economic cycle in the first half, when Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Lehman, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch reported net income totaling $18.4 billion, he and other investors don't expect results for the fiscal quarter that ended in August will be as bad as analysts are forecasting.

Market Conditions

Wall Street is collecting more investment-banking fees than a year ago, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Completed takeovers rose 35 percent to $861 billion in the fiscal third quarter. Equity offerings climbed 76 percent to $170 billion, and sales of high-yield debt jumped 26 percent to $42 billion.

Trading also has been busier, indicating a probable increase in commissions. The average daily trading volume in mortgage-backed securities rose 55 percent in the past three months from a year earlier, while in corporate debt it swelled by 11 percent, Federal Reserve data show. On the New York Stock Exchange, average trading volume rose 7.6 percent.

The CBOE SPX Volatility Index, which measures the rate of price swings in stocks, averaged 19.3 during the quarter, up 27 percent from last year. Greater volatility typically means bigger trading profits on proprietary positions.

``With the volatility on the equity market and the fact that trading on all of the exchanges has been at record or near- record levels, these companies should all benefit from that,'' said Erin Archer, an analyst at Thrivent Financial for Lutherans in Minneapolis, which manages $75 billion, including shares of all four firms. ``They could all report very strong equity numbers.''

Kitchen Sink Option

There's also the chance that some chief executive officers will use the third quarter as a so-called kitchen sink, aggressively marking down securities holdings and taking as many one-time charges as possible to reduce the drag on future profits. Lehman CEO Richard Fuld, the first to report, on Sept. 18, is spending $72 million to scale back mortgage lending, including costs to fire 2,050 employees.

Merrill, the third-largest firm behind Goldman and Morgan Stanley, said Sept. 14 that ``challenging'' conditions in fixed- income markets required ``fair value adjustments'' in the carrying value of certain investments and financing commitments. Merrill's quarter ends this month and it reports in October.

Trouble is prices for some instruments are either unavailable or unreliable, turning such mark-to-market accounting into guesswork. Many securities have all but stopped trading since the sudden increase in defaults on subprime home loans early this year left investors leery of products with limited transparency, such as mortgage-backed bonds and collateralized debt obligations.

Marking to Market

Two hedge funds run by Bear Stearns collapsed in June partly because the firm couldn't find buyers for CDOs. Others including Wharton Asset Management's Y2K Finance have suspended withdrawals until they can accurately calculate the value of their investments. Securities firms hold many of the same assets.

One index that tracks the value of mortgage securities, the ABX BBB 07-01 Index, fell 51 percent from the end of May to the end of August. Another that reflects speculation on leveraged loans, the LCDX Index, fell about 5 percent during the period, according to David Hendler, a New York-based analyst who covers the securities industry at CreditSights Inc.

``There's going to be some mark-to-market in the securities portfolios, primarily among the mortgage products and fixed- income products that the brokerage firms are holding on their balance sheet,'' said Peter Kovalski, who helps manage about $12 billion, including shares of Morgan Stanley and Goldman, at Alpine Woods Investments in Purchase, New York. ``I think there's going to be a surprise there on the magnitude.''

Setting the Tone

Analysts such as Lehman's Roger Freeman say the approach Wall Street takes to fair value accounting will influence investors' confidence in the stocks.

Lehman will set the tone for this week's earnings reports because it reports first and is expected to post its biggest quarterly profit decline since 2004.

Of the 16 analysts who follow Lehman in Bloomberg's survey, 13 have reduced their third-quarter earnings estimates in the past four weeks. They expect Lehman, the biggest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds, to post profit of $1.49 a share, down from $1.57 a year earlier and $2.21 in the second quarter.

Fuld's Signal

Fuld, 61, signaled that Lehman's prospects may not be as dire as its stock price suggests when he told UBS analyst Schorr that the strains on the firm are less than half as severe as in 1998. That year, market turmoil triggered by Russia's debt default and fanned by the failure of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP pushed Lehman close to insolvency.

Lehman, the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, surprised analysts in the second quarter with stronger-than-expected revenue from equity trading and faster growth outside the U.S.

``Lehman is pretty well positioned to report a decent third quarter,'' said Thrivent's Archer. ``Fixed-income expectations may have come in too much.''

Morgan Stanley may report on Sept. 18 an 11 percent drop in earnings per share, the first decline since John Mack, 62, returned as CEO in mid-2005, according to the analyst survey.

Some bright spots remain. Morgan Stanley, the industry's second largest by market value after Goldman, managed 81 percent more in stock sales during the fiscal third quarter, Bloomberg data show. Its retail brokerage probably lured more customers and assets, said Douglas Ciocca, who owns Morgan Stanley shares among the $1.4 billion that he manages at Renaissance Financial Corp. in Leawood, Kansas.

Hedge Fund Losses

Goldman and Bear Stearns are scheduled to report on Sept. 20. While analysts expect Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein, 52, to say earnings per share rose to $4.35 from $3.26 a year ago, they also anticipate writedowns on the inventory of mortgage-related securities and its commitments to fund leveraged buyouts. Goldman's asset-management unit probably lost revenue after its Global Alpha hedge fund fell 22.5 percent in August and investors notified the firm they planned to withdraw $1.6 billion.

Bear Stearns, the smallest of Wall Street's five largest firms, may report its worst results since the first quarter of 2001, when profit fell 42 percent. Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.79, down from $3.02 a year earlier, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Mortgage-backed securities and related products provide about 30 percent of fixed-income sales and trading revenue at Bear Stearns, compared with about 20 percent at Lehman, according to Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. After Bear Stearns's two hedge funds filed for bankruptcy in July, tarnishing the firm's reputation for managing risk, CEO James Cayne, 73, fired his 49-year-old Co-President Warren Spector.

``We know that Bear Stearns will probably have the biggest hit to earnings,'' said Stanley Nabi, who helps manage about $8.5 billion at Silvercrest Asset Management Group LLC in New York. ``I'm expecting a negative quarter, and in some instances, a significantly negative quarter, but nothing that would shake the foundation of any of them.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: September 16, 2007 19:04 EDT  
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Megamillion:

Vorsichtiger Aufbau einer Shortoption 7478

 
18.09.07 10:20
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Weitere Shortoption 7468 und Absicherung 7480

 
18.09.07 10:59
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U.K. August Inflation Rate Falls to Lowest

 
18.09.07 11:07
U.K. August Inflation Rate Falls to Lowest Since March 2006

By Brian Swint

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K.'s inflation rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest since March 2006 last month, adding to evidence the Bank of England doesn't need to raise interest rates from a six-year high.

Consumer prices rose 1.8 percent from a year earlier compared with 1.9 percent in July, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists expected inflation to be unchanged, according to the median of 35 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. From July, prices rose 0.4 percent.

The Bank of England, which a month ago signaled its benchmark interest rate may have to rise to curb inflation, is now facing an economy vulnerable to rising credit costs as financial-market turmoil pushes borrowing costs higher. Consumers are shouldering a record 1.3 trillion pounds ($2.6 trillion) in debt, a decade-long housing boom is cooling and the bank was last week forced to bail out mortgage lender Northern Rock Plc.

``A rate rise is now off the agenda,'' said Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. ``Inflation numbers should be helpful for the next few months. This gives the Bank of England a bit of breathing space.''

The collapse of subprime mortgages in the U.S. has boosted market interest rates and prompted lenders to hold back on loans to all but the safest borrowers. Customers of Northern Rock, the U.K.'s third-largest home-loan provider, today queued for a fourth day to withdraw their savings.

Slower Growth?

Slower inflation means the Bank of England may have scope to cut its benchmark rate from 5.75 percent if the credit rout continues. The central bank said Sept. 6 it expects inflation to stay around its 2 percent target in coming months and Governor Mervyn King said six days later the turmoil may curb consumer prices and hurt economic growth.

The housing market is also showing signs of slowing. London house prices dropped the most in three years this month, a report from Rightmove Plc on Sept. 14 showed.

Reductions in mortgage exit fees and clothing prices led the slowdown in inflation, the statistics office said. Financial services costs declined 3 percent from a year earlier and prices in the clothing and footwear category dropped 3.5 percent. Food and beverage costs climbed 3 percent and an increase in ticket prices for live music and theater also spurred inflation.

The Bank of England has so far proved itself more reluctant than the European Central Bank or the U.S. Federal Reserve to take action against the market slump.

The Fed may cut its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 5 percent later today, a Bloomberg News survey showed, and the ECB has held seven special cash auctions for banks since Aug. 9. The U.K. central bank announced its second such move today.

Rate Forecasts

Investors have responded to the market slump by slashing forecasts for the bank's benchmark rate. The implied rate on the June futures contract was 5.55 percent today, down from 5.84 percent a month ago. The contract settles to the three-month London interbank offered rate for the pound.

Bank of England policy makers are nevertheless still concerned economic growth will allow companies to raise prices. The pace of growth accelerated to 0.8 percent in the second quarter from 0.7 percent in the previous three months.

The economy will expand 2.9 percent in 2007, the most in three years, the International Monetary Fund predicted July 25.

Raw material costs are also rising. Oil prices climbed to a record $81.24 a barrel today and global wheat prices surpassed $9 a bushel for the first time last month.

Premier Foods Plc, the U.K.'s biggest producer of cakes and instant soup, said Sept. 4 it sees a ``substantial inflationary environment on food.'' DS Smith Plc, the owner of the Spicers office products brand, said Sept. 5 higher polymer costs hurt first-quarter earnings from plastic packaging.

``There are a lot of upstream price pressures,'' said Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``But we see the bank lowering rates once the inflation risks are squeezed out.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: September 18, 2007 04:31 EDT  
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Megamillion:

European Manufacturing, Services Growth Slows

 
21.09.07 11:36
European Manufacturing, Services Growth Slows (Update1)

By Fergal O'Brien

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Europe's manufacturing and service industries grew at the slowest pace in two years this month as an economic expansion loses steam.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said a preliminary estimate of its composite index fell today to 54.5 in September from 57.4 in August. That's the lowest since September 2005 and below the 56.9 median of 15 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading above 50 indicates growth.

The index drop prompted Royal Bank economists to predict European Central Bank interest-rate cuts next year and to lower their 2008 growth forecast. Europe's economy expanded at the slowest in more than two years in the second quarter. The ECB and European Commission this month cut 2007 estimates for expansion as oil and the euro rose to records and the fallout from a housing recession in the U.S. spreads.

``The downside risks are stacking up,'' said Kenneth Wattret, an economist at BNP Paribas in London. Global growth is slowing and the euro-area economy is ``quite vulnerable to external news.''

The manufacturing index declined to 53.2 in September from 54.3 in August, while a gauge of services dropped to 54 from 58, according to today's report. Both numbers were lower than economists forecast. A gauge of manufacturing orders dropped to 52.4 from 54.8 and the services new business measure also declined.

Confidence among consumers and business dropped to a six- month low last month, according to an Aug. 31 report. Germany's K+S AG, the world's third-largest producer of potash used in fertilizers, last month said increased energy expenses, as well as a further decline in the dollar, may hurt earnings in the ``medium term.''

`Subpar Growth'

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point this week, saying tightening credit has the potential to ``intensify the housing correction, and to restrain economic growth more generally.''

If the U.S. keeps slowing, ``in a relatively short time we might be looking at subpar euro-area growth,'' said Austin Hughes, chief economist at IIB Bank Plc in Dublin. ``There is little to suggest momentum in domestic spending will be sufficient to offset any weakening in external demand.''

The ripple effects of the housing slump add to risks facing Europe's economy.

Crude oil futures rose to $82.51 on Sept. 19, the highest since trading began in 1983. Prices are up 35 percent from a year ago. The euro rose to a record high of $1.4120 today on speculation the Fed will keep cutting interest rates.

The European Commission cut its growth estimate for the euro area to 2.5 percent from a May forecast of 2.6 percent, joining the ECB and International Monetary Fund in becoming more pessimistic. The economy grew 2.8 percent last year, the fastest since 2000.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fergal O'Brien in Dublin at fobrien@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: September 21, 2007 04:45 EDT  
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Megamillion:

Es ist angerichtet

 
24.09.07 17:00
Goldman Sees `Bottom' as Besieged Wall Street Can't Yet Concur

By Christine Harper and Bradley Keoun

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest and most profitable securities firm, has good news for its competitors: The worst credit-market shakeout since 1998 is abating.

After winning its third-quarter bet against all forms of money devalued by the subprime mortgage collapse, while almost everyone else on Wall Street did the opposite, Goldman is signaling a turnabout.

``We are a lot closer to the bottom than where we were at the end of last quarter,'' Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said in an interview assessing the third-highest earnings in Goldman's history and the industry's only increase last quarter. ``There are going to be opportunities in the mortgage business,'' he said, and ``there are certainly going to be opportunities to buy distressed assets.''

The emergence of a bullish sensibility is resonating if only because so many of the New York-based firm's strategies have been on target. It was Goldman that foresaw this decade's bull market in fixed income and built a team of traders that generated a record $14.3 billion of revenue last year.

Goldman shares are up 5.3 percent so far in 2007, the only equity among the five biggest U.S. securities firms to advance. Morgan Stanley fell 4.7 percent, while Merrill Lynch & Co. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. dropped almost 20 percent, and Bear Stearns Cos. slumped 28 percent. Goldman trades at almost nine times earnings, more than Morgan Stanley, Merrill and Lehman. Only Bear Stearns trades at a higher multiple after profit plunged 61 percent in the third quarter.

Goldman's Patience

Goldman stuck with private-equity investing while Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. exited the business, and it now reaps about $400 million a year managing the second-largest fund for leveraged buyouts, based on the typical 2 percent annual fee. Goldman also was quicker to respond to demand for alternatives to stocks, bonds and money markets by building the world's No. 2 hedge fund manager by assets after New York-based JPMorgan.

``They've been more right than wrong in how they've positioned their own book of business,'' said Mark Batty, a financial-services analyst at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia, which oversees $77 billion and holds shares of Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Merrill. ``So you give them the benefit of the doubt, in terms of their outlook, versus the other firms.''

At least six sell-side analysts raised estimates for Goldman's full-year earnings after last week's third-quarter report. The average profit estimate of 13 analysts in a Bloomberg survey now is $10.7 billion, compared with net income of $9.54 billion in 2006.

Misreading the Signs

Goldman's rivals misread the credit markets heading into the quarter that ended Aug. 31. They didn't anticipate that investors, spooked by rising defaults on subprime mortgages, would shun everything from leveraged-buyout debt to investment- grade bonds. The risk premium on bonds rated BB more than doubled to 3.53 percentage points in the three-month period, according to a Merrill index.

Not since Russia's debt default of 1998 and the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP would Wall Street face such a bear market in credit. In the flight to quality, Treasury bonds rallied by the most in five years.

Morgan Stanley, the second-largest U.S. securities firm by market value after Goldman, was optimistic in June when CFO David Sidwell told analysts that ``the current market plays to our strengths'' and that ``concerns early in the quarter about whether issues in the subprime market were going to spread dissipated.''

Unhedged Loans

By the end of August, Morgan Stanley's credit-trading revenue had dropped by more than $1 billion from the second quarter, and the New York-based firm's losses in fixed income were exacerbated by a decision not to hedge its financing commitments to LBOs.

``They're going to think a lot harder about the bets that they take on from here until the end of the year,'' said Helena Ocampo, an analyst at Sentinal Asset Management in Montpelier, Vermont, which manages $4.4 billion and holds shares of Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Merrill.

Morgan Stanley isn't sure yet that now is the time to put capital at risk again, a reticence that may become an opportunity cost.

``We believe it will take at least a quarter or two for the credit markets to return to a more normal extension of credit and provision of liquidity,'' incoming CFO Colm Kelleher said on Morgan Stanley's earnings conference call Sept. 19.

Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said the same day that Germany's biggest bank will scale back hiring after making ``mistakes'' before the credit boom ground to a halt during the past two months.

`Challenging Markets'

New York-based Merrill, which reports earnings in October, said on Sept. 14 that ``credit market conditions have continued to remain challenging in the third quarter.''

Goldman hinted at its position on June 14, when Viniar said the firm expected ``more pain'' from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. Less than two weeks later, Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein offered more clues.

``We certainly are organizing ourselves like the market is undervaluing risk, and so we are in a high state of nervousness,'' Blankfein said at a June 27 conference in New York organized by the Wall Street Journal. ``The biggest risk we face, and there are a lot of things that contribute to this risk, would be a very big crisis in the credit markets.''

New York-based Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, the two securities firms most reliant on mortgages, didn't share Blankfein's concerns.

Doomed Quarter

``Mortgages are obviously at a low point in this recent period here,'' Lehman's then-CFO, Chris O'Meara, said on June 12. ``And I think as we look forward, without giving specific guidance, I would think that we would be in for better performance.''

Bear Stearns CFO Samuel Molinaro told analysts and investors on a June 14 conference call that he anticipated trading ``to be a little bit challenging'' in the third quarter. It would turn out that the firm's earnings were already doomed.

Two Bear Stearns hedge funds that invested in mortgage securities melted down days later, resulting in $200 million of losses and related expenses. Bear Stearns last week reported its lowest quarterly net income in five years after a further $700 million loss for writing down mortgage holdings and loans for LBOs.

Lehman's third-quarter profit fell 3 percent, its first decline since 2002.

Trading Prowess

``Goldman had themselves set up correctly for what the market did, and their trading prowess really showed through,'' said Ryan Lentell, an analyst at Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. who gives Goldman three stars out of a possible high of five. ``They were short mortgages this quarter, which was the right way to be.''

June wasn't the first time Blankfein, 53, has called a credit crunch. As a senior Goldman partner in early 1998, he raised concerns about excessive leverage in the U.S. financial system, according to Roger Lowenstein's 2000 book about Long- Term Capital, ``When Genius Failed.'' He told Peter Fisher, then head of open market operations at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, that investors weren't distinguishing between the risks of different securities.

``Blankfein thought the next big problem would be a credit problem, not a problem specific to any one market,'' Lowenstein wrote.

Later that year, Russia would default and the New York Fed would have to orchestrate a $4 billion bailout for Long-Term Capital to stabilize the financial system. Goldman, then run by current New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, was one of 14 banks that participated in the rescue by putting up $300 million of its own capital.

Calling the Bottom

Today, at least two of Goldman's rivals also are ready to call the bottom, even after timing it wrong in June. Lehman's O'Meara said on Sept. 18 that ``we feel that the worst of this credit correction is behind us.'' Bear Stearns's Molinaro, who on Aug. 3 said the fixed-income market was ``about as bad as I have seen it'' in 22 years on Wall Street, declared last week that ``the worst is definitely behind us.''

To be sure, Goldman doesn't always get it right. The firm lost at least $350 million in 1994 after betting on an increase in Treasury bond prices and a decline in the British pound, according to Lisa Endlich's 1999 book ``Goldman Sachs: The Culture of Success.'' When the Fed and the U.K. central bank raised interest rates, both trades went haywire.

``Nobody is a super-trader,'' said Bruce Foerster, a former Lehman executive who now runs South Beach Capital Markets, an investment-advisory firm in Miami. ``Goldman was rocked by the 1994 trading losses. Everybody makes mistakes. Sometimes you're on the right side of the bet, sometimes not.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net ; Bradley Keoun in New York at bkeoun@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: September 23, 2007 19:29 EDT  
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Megamillion:

Sieht Goldman Licht am Ende des Tunnels

 
24.09.07 17:02
sollte man auch adanch handeln, daher Shortoption Daxbiene und Dowhummel.
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Megamillion:

Zinssenkungerwartung steigt

 
27.09.07 10:10
Chicago  - Aufgrund der vortägigen sehr enttäuschenden US-Konjunkturdaten zum Konsumentenvertrauen und den Verkäufen gebrauchter Häuser sind nach Ansicht von Experten die Chancen für weitere Leitzinssenkungen durch die Federal Reserve deutlich gestiegen.
Der von Conference Board ermittelte Index zur Messung der Stimmung unter den Verbrauchern brach im September von 105,6 Punkten im August auf 99,8 Punkte ein. Gleichzeitig sind die Verkäufe bestehender Häuser im August um 4,3 Prozent gesunken. Weiters hat ein Index zur Messung der Hauspreise für Juli im Bereich der meisten Metropolen auf den größten Wertverfall seit sechs Jahren hingewiesen. Daraus ergebe sich, dass die Rezession des Hausmarktes noch immer in Fortsetzung begriffen ist. Dieser Umstand könnte die Konsumenten bis in das nächste Jahr zur Drosselung ihrer Ausgaben veranlassen. Die meisten Händler gehen anhand der Zinsfutures an der Terminbörse in Chicago davon aus, dass die Fed den Leitzinssatz im laufenden Jahr noch zweimal senkt. Für eine Herabnahme von 4,75 Prozent auf 4,25 Prozent ergibt sich eine aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit von 70 Prozent. Am Vortag lag die Rate bei 52 Prozent. - (© BörseGo AG 2007) Quelle: BoerseGo
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Megamillion:

Dollar Falls to Record Low Versus Euro Before New

 
27.09.07 10:16
Dollar Falls to Record Low Versus Euro Before New Home Sales

By Kosuke Goto

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to an all-time low against the euro on speculation a government report will show a drop in U.S. home sales, bolstering the Federal Reserve's case for cutting interest rates.

The currency is headed for its biggest quarterly slump versus the yen since December 2004 as the yield advantage for two-year Treasuries over similar-maturity Japanese debt reached the lowest in almost three weeks. It has weakened against 14 of the 16 most-active currencies since June 30, falling 4.4 percent versus the euro.

``A slowing housing market is an albatross around the U.S. economy's neck,'' said Yuji Saito, head of foreign-exchange sales at Societe Generale SA in Tokyo. ``The dollar remains weak amid concern over the slowdown in the U.S.''

Against the euro, the dollar fell to $1.4162 at 7:52 a.m. in London from $1.4128 in New York yesterday, and reached $1.4166, the lowest since the European currency's debut in January 1999. It was the sixth straight trading day the dollar touched a record. The U.S. currency was at 115.61 yen from 115.55, bringing losses this quarter to 6.2 percent.

The dollar may fall to $1.42 per euro today, Saito said.

The Commerce Department will report today that new home sales decreased 5.2 percent last month to an annual rate of 825,000, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Options Barriers

Losses in the dollar were limited as some investors bought the currency to prevent it triggering so-called option barriers at $1.4200, $1.4225 and $1.4250, said Lee Wai Tuck, strategist at Forecast Singapore Ltd. Options grant the holder the right to buy or sell a currency at a set price on a fixed date. A barrier is a level that renders an option worthless when breached.

Europe's single currency may strengthen to $1.4500 by year- end, Lee forecast, citing the prospects of a further shift in interest-rate differentials between the U.S. and the 13-nation region in favor of the euro.

Benchmark German two-year bunds yield 9 basis points more than similar-maturity Treasuries, the widest since September 2004. The extra yield two-year U.S. notes offer over Japanese equivalent debt has narrowed to 3.09 percentage points, the smallest since Sept. 10. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Futures Bets

Futures contracts today showed 86 percent odds the Fed will lower its target overnight lending rate between banks by a quarter-percentage point to 4.50 percent at its next meeting Oct. 31, compared with 72 percent a week ago. The European Central Bank's key rate is 4 percent and the Bank of Japan's is 0.5 percent, the lowest among industrialized countries.

Bank of Japan policy board member Miyako Suda told a conference in Tsu, western Japan, that the economy may overheat if interest rates are raised slowly. Suda unsuccessfully proposed doubling the key rate to 0.5 percent in January, a month before the board proceeded with a rate increase.

``Suda spoke in hawkish manner,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. ``She will propose a rate hike in October. We think this is positive for the yen,'' which may rise to 109 per dollar by year-end, he said.

Investors see a 9 percent chance of a rate increase at a BOJ meeting on Oct. 11, unchanged from yesterday, according to Credit Suisse Group calculations using overnight interest rate swaps.

Gains in the yen may be limited by speculation Japanese investors will send money overseas in search of higher yields. Investment trusts are selling more than 1 trillion yen ($8.7 billion) of mutual funds today and tomorrow focused on foreign assets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``Sales of investment trust funds are not so bad,'' said Kei Katayama, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $1 billion at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. ``This is contributing to the yen's depreciation.''

Japan's currency traded at 163.66 per euro from 163.26 yesterday, when it touched 163.44, the weakest since Aug. 9. It may move between 115 and 120 per dollar this year, Katayama said.

One-month dollar-yen implied volatility fell to 9.25 percent, the lowest since Aug. 8. That tends to encourage carry trades because it implies smaller swings in exchange rates.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kosuke Goto in Tokyo at kgoto2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 27, 2007 02:57 EDT  
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Megamillion:

Steigender Dax auf Pump

 
27.09.07 10:17
ECB Loans 3.9 Billion Euros at Emergency Rate, Most Since 2004

By John Fraher

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank loaned the most money at its penalty interest rate in almost three years.

The ECB loaned 3.9 billion euros ($5.5 billion) at its marginal lending rate of 5 percent yesterday, the most since October 2004, the Frankfurt-based central bank said today. It didn't provide details on who asked for the money.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Fraher in London jfraher@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 27, 2007 03:39 EDT  
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