Der USA Bären-Thread

Aus dem Vorwort der Studie von Masters:

Itʼs important that you know that I am not currently involved in trading the commodities
futures markets. I am not representing any corporate, financial, or lobby organizations. I
am speaking with you today as a concerned citizen whose professional background has
given me insight into a situation that I believe is negatively affecting the U.S. economy.
While some in my profession might be disappointed that I am presenting this testimony
to Congress, I feel that it is the right thing to do.

Eine Blase ist im Prinzip eine Hülle aus in der Regel dehnbarem Material, die durch wachsenden Innendruck an Volumen zunimmt. Dabei wird die Hüllenwand, deren Materialmenge endlich und von Vornherein vorgegeben ist, notwendigerweise dünner - es sei denn, die Substanz, die im Innern für den Druckanstieg sorgt, schlägt sich zugleich verstärkend von innen auf der Hüllenwand nieder. Lassen wir letzteren Spezialfall mal außer Betracht - ein Ölfilm etwa kann die Hülle von innen her nicht nennenswert stabilisieren - , so bedingt die zunehmende Dünnhäutigkeit bei gleichzeitiger Volumenexpansion, dass sich die Hülle immer stärker dem Punkt ihre maximalen Überdehnung nähert. Ist dieser überschritten, so platzt die Blase.

Werden Blasen hingegen symbolisch in Charts dargestellt, dann ist es einerlei, ob wir Säulen-, Balken-, Walzen-, Kugel- oder Zylinderformen nehmen, da dies stets nur stellvertretend zu verstehen ist. So gesehen finde ich die Grafik in # 23670 zwar zugegeben stümperhaft, von ihrem Symbolgehalt her aber eingängig und leicht verständlich.

Danke für die Anregung.

meiner Kritik wieder fallen ;-)

Der Rest bleibt aber bestehen. Sieht nach Effekthascherei aus.

Ansonsten kann ich dein Posting 23670 mit 2 Händen unterschreiben (damit wir uns nicht missverstehen)

Von Ihnen kommen bereits 7 der letzten 20 (oder weniger) positiven Bewertungen für Anti Lemming. (Nur mehr mit Schwarzen )

...wenn man etwa aus Grafiken zur globalen Bevölkerungsexpansion falsche Schlüsse zieht - etwa die, dass

a) die Weltbevölkerung wächst (zunächst mal korrekt) und

b) alle darin enthaltenen radfahrenden Inder, Chinesen, Asiaten und Arikaner in Kürze auf das Auto umsteigen, um Anschluss an die Errungenschaften der westlichen "Zivilisation" zu erhalten (falsch, da die meisten davon sich gar kein Auto leisten können), um daraus

c) zu überhöhten forward-Abschätzungen des Ölverbrauchs zu kommen, was wiederum

d) zum vorwegnehmend bereits heute ansteigenden Ölpreis - vulgo: zur Öl-Blase - führt.

Ein schöner "Luftballon", zwar etwas unkonventionell, aber Blasen sind selten ästhetisch vollkommen - hängt mit den "Chaos-Kräften" zusammen, die in ihnen wirken.

ich hatte ja aus der Studie schon eine andere Grphik gepostet,  die mehr oder weniger das gleiche aussagt; die hat aber bei weitem nicht so ein Feedback ausgelöst ;-)

a) Wo ist im Baltic-Dry die Sollbruchstelle?

b) Hältst Du es für plausibel, dass beim Platzen einer Dry-Blase kein Auge trocken bleibt?

könnten feststellen, daß sich der Aufbau von Graphiken nach ihren Adressaten richtet;
Ihr dürft nicht vergessen, die Präsentation wurde vor dem US-Kongress gehalten;
da muß man schon mal mit dem Holzhammer kommen;-)

Habe das hier mal rausgegoogelt zum Thema Seifenblasen: (stammt aus Bamberg)

Passt doch irgendwie zum Thema, obwohl ich den Stuck eher durch ein Ölgemälde ersetzen würde ;-))

Intermediate-Term Outlook for the Indices Is Bleak
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
6/23/2008 4:15 PM EDT


It was a very slow day with light volume, but once again oils stocks were strong, financials weak and the broad market lackluster. Although the indices were close to flat, we had more than two stocks declining for everyone one that advanced. However, the strength in oil stocks covered up weakness elsewhere and made things look better than they really were.

The technical condition of the major indices looks precarious at best, and even a bounce here would look to be nothing more than a setup for another leg down. The action isn't terrible, but there is no energy out there, and outside of oil stocks, there is little buying interest. We are a bit oversold, which is bringing in a few bounce players and may help to hold us up a while longer, but the intermediate picture of the indices is downright bleak, especially the DJIA, which is barely hanging about the lows of the year.

As I wrote this morning, my big concern about this market is that the Nasdaq and small-caps are going to catch-up with the DJIA and S&P 500 to the downside. The action today did nothing to change my view, and I believe it is just a matter of time before the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 break down further.

While we may see some sort of bounce soon, there is no reason to anticipate that a market bottom is at hand. Stay patient and protect that capital.

witzig, hab ich mir letzes Jahr real angeschaut;
wobei ich mich noch mehr für die Schaumblasen der ausgezeichneten Bamberger Biere interessiert habe ;-)

dabei schmiert der Dax aber ganz ordentlich ab.

Ihr werdet doch wohl alle noch eure shorts haben?


Ich habe SL auf mein Oil sehr sehr eng nachgezogen.

Anleger trennten sich erneut von deutschen Autowerten. „Der Ölpreis steht kurz vor 140 Dollar und die Aktien von General Motors und Ford waren zuletzt sehr schwach“, sagte ein Händler. Ein weiterer Belastungsfaktor seien Meldungen, wonach asiatische Stahlhersteller wegen deutlich gestiegener Rohstoffkosten ihre Preise kräftig anheben. „Die Kunden reißen sich im Moment nicht um Autos, da dürfte es schwer werden, die höhen Kosten weiterzureichen“, sagte Händler Matthias Melms von der NordLB. MAN und Continental verloren rund 3,5 Prozent, Daimler und BMW gaben rund 2,5 Prozent nach.

Allerdings gibt es auch Zweifel, ob die europäischen Hersteller in ähnlichem Ausmaß wie ihre asiatischen Wettbewerber von teurerem Stahl betroffen sein werden. „Die europäischen Stahlherstellern kaufen das billigere Eisenerz aus Brasilien, während die Asiaten das teurere australische Erz kaufen müssen. Wegen der hohen Transportkosten lohnt sich für sie der Kauf brasilianischen Erzes nicht mehr“, erläuterte ein Händler.

der Kenner schweigt und genießt, hehehe

Hab ich auf scoach gefunden:

24.06.2008 | 11:45
La BCE alloue 208 mrd EUR, tension sur les taux

Francfort (AWP/AFX) - La Banque centrale européenne (BCE) a alloué mardi 208 milliards d'euros lors de son opération principale de refinancement, marquée par une tension sur les taux.

C'est 35 milliards de plus que son estimation des besoins des banques commerciales pour remplir leurs obligations de réserve minimum, selon un bref communiqué destiné aux marchés.

Le taux marginal est ressorti à 4,07%, contre 4,03% la semaine précédente, et le taux moyen pondéré à 4,25% (contre 4,13%).

Le taux minimum accepté lors de ces appels d'offres est de 4%, mais le président de la BCE Jean-Claude Trichet a prévenu que l'institution pourrait remonter ses taux directeurs dès juillet, face à la flambée de l'inflation en zone euro. Les experts tablent sur une hausse à 4,25% du principal taux directeur.

L'inflation a atteint un nouveau sommet en mai, avec une progression de 3,7% sur un an essentiellement due à la poussée des prix de l'énergie.

afx/ys

> "Wir sind wieder voll investiert", sagt Gerhardt.

http://www.ariva.de/...ead_t283343?search=DWS&pnr=4297282#jump4297282

Das stand der Dax bei knapp 7.200.

Verlustbegrenzung der Longs nach verfrühten Käufen ist die Mutter aller Baissen. (-> Gerhard bei DAX 7200: "Wir sind wieder voll investiert.")

Verlustbegrenzung der Shorts nach verfrühten (Leer-)Verkäufen ist die Mutter aller Blasen.
(-> Öl-Shorts, die glaubten, Öl sei schon bei 100 Dollar "viel zu teuer").

Die Marschrichtung geben diejenigen vor, die gerade die meisten Schmerzen erleiden und sich dieser durch Glattstellung entledigen (Öl-Shorts KAUFEN Öl, Aktien-Longs VERKAUFEN Aktien - beide mit Verlust). Dabei forcieren die Verlustbegrenzungen kurioserweise die jeweiligen Trends - ganz entgegen den ursprünglichen Erwartungen.

http://www.ariva.de/...homes_for_sale_t288184?pnr=4435257#jump4435257

auf die erst am Anfang stehenden C-Wellen:

Once upon a time there was a greedy bank president with a fancy gold watch and important degrees. He went to his magic mirror and said, "I find myself on the executive floor -- I'm really entitled to be earning more. If the stock went up I'd have no cares, since I own about a million shares. Ten other banks have opened on my block -- tell me how to boost my stock."

The mirror replied, "Hand out mortgages across the land, and sell them to Wall Street as fast as you can. Heed my word in this endeavor, and your stock will go up and up forever."

And the greedy bank president went on television, where the media declared that his bank's stock would likely go up forever.

The Mortgage Broker

Once upon a time there was a greedy young man with a not-so-fancy degree and a leased Porsche. He went to his magic mirror and said, "Mirror, mirror, I want to be rich, tell me where I can find my niche. I've read 'The Secret' and I'm ready for action, I'm familiar with the laws of attraction. My ambition is so thoroughly unbridled, I think you'll agree that I'm entitled."

The mirror replied, "Now my friend don't fret or frown, but make some loans with no money down. Become a mortgage broker and get on the phone; get some expertise in the 'liar loan.' Find suckers with no income to sign on the line, tell them when the rate adjusts things will be fine. Or sign yourself, who needs permission? Just make sure the loan has the biggest commission. Since you're lending the bank's money there's no hitch, just close those loans and you'll be rich."

And the mortgage broker went on television, where he starred in a commercial as Crazy Morty the Mortgage Broker, urging would-be homeowners to call him at 1-800-555-4567.

The Greedy Townsperson

Once upon a time there was a greedy townsperson who lived in his parents' basement and spent most of his time watching television. He saw the mortgage broker's commercial, went to his magic mirror, and said, "I don't have a job or a fancy degree, but I'm smarter than those geniuses on TV and I'm entitled to a home for free. Should I call the number that I see?" And the mirror replied, "Yes, and then cash out your equity."

He bought a McMansion and, six months later, cashed out the equity and bought a Lexus.

The Hard-Working Townsperson

Once upon a time there was a hardworking townsperson, the neighbor of the man who bought the McMansion. The hardworking man toiled in IT for the bank, where he received raises of 4 percent a year. Unfortunately, his expenses -- food, gas, utilities, taxes, health insurance, college tuition, even the cleats for his kids' soccer shoes -- were rising much faster. He drove an 8-year-old minivan, and had scrimped and saved to buy a house he could afford -- even putting 20 percent down.

He went to his magic mirror and said, "Mirror, mirror, I'm exhausted. Today at work I almost lost it. I come home from my toil and fall into bed. What can I do to get ahead?" And the mirror replied, "I have no schemes for such an honest dude -- I sincerely hope you don't get screwed."

The Moral

And as it turned out, the mortgage-backed securities were not treasure, and the pension fund went broke. The king made up for the loss by doubling taxes. The greedy young man and the greedy investment banker both got lucrative new jobs at a hedge fund run by an Ivy League pal.

The bank stock didn't go up forever -- it crashed to $5 a share -- but the bank president received a bailout worth $160 million and retired to the Caribbean. The mortgage broker moved to the Caribbean as well, where he was recognized by the banker who had enjoyed his Crazy Morty TV commercials. The banker got him a job running the country club's caddy shack.

The townsperson who bought the McMansion couldn't afford his mortgage when the rate reset, so the government bailed him out. The hardworking townsperson was laid off with no severance (that money had been given to the bank president). The hardworking townsperson's home plunged in value and his taxes went up (to bail out his neighbor and the kingdom's pension fund). His IT job was sent overseas, where the bank hired a programmer for $8,000 a year.

And the mirror just sighed at all the trouble. "Another mania, another bubble. The winners get out before it bursts, the man who follows the rules is cursed. With a sense of entitlement and plenty of greed, you can win this game with lightning speed. I've told the tale, and now I'm finished."

And the American Dream was greatly diminished.

quelle: yahoo finance

"Energy speculation has become a growth industry and it is time for the government to intervene," said Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., chairman of the full committee. "We need to consider a full range of options to counter this rapacious speculation." It was Dingell's strongest statement yet on the role of speculators.

There has been much discussion recently about how big a role speculators have been playing in the sharp rise in energy prices, though no consensus has emerged on this point. Dingell introduced a bill on June 11 that would ask the Energy Department to gather the facts on energy prices, including the role played by speculators.

There are two kinds of speculators in the futures markets, Masters said. Traditional speculators are those who need to hedge because they actually take physical possession of the commodities. Index speculators, on the other hand, are merely allocating a portion of their portfolio to commodity futures.

Index speculation damages price-discovery mechanisms provided by futures markets, Masters added

The committee will likely consider legislation that would rein in index speculation by imposing higher-margin requirements; setting position limits for speculators; requiring more disclosure of positions; and preventing pension funds and investment banks from owning commodities.

Both major presidential candidates have supported closing loopholes that encourage speculation in the energy markets. However, other witnesses said that pure speculators have had little impact on energy prices, which have doubled in the past year to about $135 per barrel. Both Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman have dismissed the impact of speculators on prices paid by consumers.

Speculators now account for about 70% of all benchmark crude trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from 37% in 2000, said Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., chairman of the investigations subcommittee. Stupak introduced a bill on Friday that would limit index speculation.

There has been much discussion recently about how big a role speculators have been playing in the sharp rise in energy prices, though no consensus has emerged on this point.
Congress, however, has grown increasingly concerned over speculative investors' role in the energy market in comparison with those buying futures contracts to hedge against risk from price changes. Lawmakers are expected to consider legislation to set strict limits -- or in some cases, an outright ban -- on speculative trading in energy futures in some markets.

Dingell is looking into any legal loopholes that may have contributed to speculation in energy markets. In 1991, according to documents provided by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to the committee's investigators, the agency authorized the first exemption from position limits for swap dealers with no physical commodity exposure. This began what Dingell said was "a process that has enabled investment banks to accumulate enormous positions in commodity markets."

Is Congress barking up the wrong tree?

Neal Ryan, manager at Ryan Oil & Gas Partners, said that if Congress develops regulations to cut back speculative trading, speculation will just find a new home.

"Speculation is the root of capitalism," he said. "If the speculation is forced out of the U.S. exchanges, it'll simply show up on other exchanges that are OTC like the ICE, or new exchanges will pop up to allow for the spec trades to continue functioning."

Ryan said he does see a reason for Congress to look at eliminating aspects such as allowing West Texas intermediate crude oil futures to trade on foreign markets and the "Enron loophole," but "these exchanges are currently functioning as they are supposed to in a free marketplace."

The creation of a comprehensive U.S. energy policy that tackles issues of increasing domestic supply and reining in consumer demand via conservation should be Congress' focus, Ryan said. "Instead we're on bended knee begging the Saudis to put more oil on the market and talking about shutting down spec trades."

Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch. Michael Kitchen is a copy editor for MarketWatch and is based in New York. Nate Becker contributed to this report from San Francisco.

CNBC.

Preise für Produkte werden um bis zu 25% angehoben.

300$ pauschalaufschlag als Truckcharge for Gas.

Die Wirtschaft zeigt sich lange nicht so Resistent gegenüber dem hohen Ölpreis wie uns die Wissenschaft und Politik immer berichtet.

Gruß

Permanent

denn: dazu musste die Bush-Administration ja erst einmal das nötige Gesetz absegnen.

Ob die Entourage unseres Freundes Dabbelju sich wohl darüber freuen täte ???