statt "Tech".
Die Börse nimmt bekanntlich die Zukunft vorweg, meist um 6 Monate. In 6 Monaten dürften die ersten Covid-19-Impfungen anwendungsreif und teils auch schon appliziert worden sein. Spätestens im zweiten Halbjahr 2021 dürfte auch wieder so etwas wie Normalität aufkommen (Reisen, Restaurantbesuche, keine Masken mehr usw.).
Wegen dieses "Vorwegnehmens" könnten von Covid gebeutelte zyklische Aktien, die jetzt (noch) stark am Boden liegen - also Reiseunternehmen, Luftlinien, Flugzeughersteller, Ölaktien (ich hab vor einigen Tagen Shell B als Long empfohlen) usw. - in den nächsten Monaten überproportional steigen.
Goldman sieht das in diesem Fall ganz ähnlich, der "Robin-Hood-Markt" aber offensichtlich (noch) nicht.
Wenn Goldman die Sektor-Rotation in "Value" lostritt, werden die Robin-Hood-Schäfchen allerdings auf den neuen Trend aufsatteln. Sie traden, was sie sehen...
Ich hingegen trade, was ich vorhersehe ;-)
markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/...-2020-9-1029607622
A surprising segment of the stock market will rally the most on a COVID-19 vaccine, Goldman Sachs says
As the world awaits a successful COVID-19 vaccine, investors are anticipating which stocks to buy to benefit off of the potential development.
And while many portfolio managers have mostly pointed to cyclical stocks as the main beneficiaries of a COVID-19 vaccine, Goldman Sachs argues instead for value stocks, according to a note published on Friday.
The consensus thinking goes that the hardest hit stocks like airlines, restaurants, and casinos are set to benefit the most from a vaccine as the economy fully reopens and consumers get out and spend money.
But recent performance dynamics suggest otherwise.
Between August 22 and September 8, the probability of a widely distributed COVID-19 vaccine surged by 30 percentage points, Goldman said, citing data from the Good Judgment Project. During that same time, cyclical stocks underperformed defensive stocks, while value stocks outperformed growth stocks by more than 3%.
"Cyclicals lagging while vaccine prospects are improving is certainly not what most investors would have predicted," Goldman said.
The reason for the moves, according to Goldman, is that today's value stocks "will experience the sharpest rebounds in earnings expectations once investors have confidence in the path to normalization," the note said.
Goldman added that the traditional economic sensitivity of an industry "is less relevant" when thinking about where earnings are likely to rebound after an effective vaccine is developed.
Adding fuel to the potential fire of value stocks' expected post-vaccine rally is the fact that value stocks trade at their largest discount to growth stocks since the tech bubble, according to Goldman.
This gap "represents the potential energy for value stocks to outperform with the right catalyst that generates a rotation," Goldman said....