hier nicht das von Pimco's Bill Gross angesprochene "New Normal", sondern gemäß Doug Noland wohl eher das "Newest Abnormal"? Wird nicht schlichtweg die nächste Asset-Blase aufgepumt, mit in ihren Aktionen synchron agierenden Politikern und Notenbänkern weltweit? Im Sinne dieses "Same old Bubble-inciting paradigm" ist möglicherweise auch weiterhin mit jedweder politischer Intervention zu rechnen, was sich dieser Blasenbildung in irgendeiner Weise in den Weg stellen könnte. Bill Gross spricht von notwendigem "Deleveraging and Reregulation" um zu seinem Szenario einer Neuen Normalität zu gelangen. Aber wie soll das funktionieren, so fragt Doug Noland, wenn z.B. die Fed und das US-Government höchstpersönlich aktuell Leverage bis zum Abwinken betreiben ($1.9 TN of additional debt over the past year), wenn Regierungen rund um den Globus das Spiel von Massive Credit Expansion and Extreme Monetary Looseness doch nur allzu willig mitspielen. Und wenn der Risikoappetit vieler Akteuere mittlerweile wieder den aus der Vergangenheit allseits bekannten "Animal Spirits" gleichkommt.
Erfahren wir also das „New Normal“ wirklich erst nach einer "Major Government Debt Crisis"?
Sehr interessanter und diskussionswürdiger Ansatz von Prudent Bear’s Doug Noland, nicht wahr, Herr Kübler ;-)))
The Newest Abnormal (Fazit aus Nolands Credit Bubble Bulletin)
[….] Which brings me to the latest and greatest: “The New Normal.” It’s not that I have huge issues with the analysis – it’s certainly not “miracle,” “New Era,” or “Bretton Woods II” silliness. I just sense it’s incomplete and misses some important aspects of the unfolding backdrop. From Bill Gross: “We’re transitioning due to popped bubbles and de-risking of portfolios and balance sheets... A simple way to look at it is that private market capitalism simply went too far over the last 10-20 years, and now we’re in the process of pulling back and accommodating deleverging, regulating and de-globalization.”
From my perspective, the “New Normal” appears more like the old than something new: I'm thinking more “The Newest Abnormal”. To be sure, there have been some popped Bubbles. But we remain trapped in the same old Bubble-inciting paradigm of activist central banking and government intervention. I have expounded the view that a “government finance Bubble” emerged with the bursting of the Wall Street/mortgage finance Bubble. I would argue that Bubble dynamics have taken firm hold in China, throughout Asia, and in the “developing” economies more generally. New Normal reminds me too much of “muddle through.”
“Deleveraging” is at this point overrated. Our federal government issued about $1.9 TN of additional debt over the past year. In my book, that’s “leveraging.” The Fed’s balance sheet has become much more leveraged. The mortgage businesses of Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie and the FHA have become much more “leveraged.” The Newest Abnormal is about massive synchronized global government Credit expansion and extreme monetary looseness. The Newest Abnormal sees massive “private” Credit expansions in China, India, Brazil, and the “developing” markets. The Newest Abnormal is fueling historic Credit and economic Bubbles in China.
The Newest Abnormal has seen a major resurgence in the global leveraged speculating community. The Newest Abnormal is acting with great speed to impair the dollar as the world’s reserve currency - taking unfettered financial “globalization” to a whole new level. The Newest Abnormal has animal spirits that could give the old ones a run for their “money”.
Mr. Gross’s New Normal – constrained by “deleveraging and reregulation” - seems to imply a more subdued and therefore stable Credit landscape. Such a backdrop would be consistent with lower average economic growth and lower investment returns. The Newest Abnormal – with varieties of newfangled Bubbles, excesses and uncertainties – would point to ongoing financial and economic volatility. The “averages” may indeed be lower going forward - but it may be the divergences that prove most noteworthy (hard asset returns vs. securities; non-dollar vs. dollar; China GDP vs. U.S., for example).
The New Normal implies more monetary order, while the Newest Abnormal suggests unrelenting Monetary Disorder. The proponents of the New Normal would tend to view extreme government intervention as a stabilizing force appropriate for a (deflationary) post-Bubble landscape. From the Newest Abnormal perspective, massive government deficits and market interventions inaugurate a dangerous new stage of global inflationism. Newest Abnormal analysis posits that a more stable New Normal backdrop would, at this point, likely arise only after a major government debt crisis.
It was a Newest Abnormal kind of week. For months now, unprecedented global government intervention has spurred a stampede back into risk assets. Buoyant risk markets then sparked a run of bullish optimism. Not surprisingly, everyone ended up on the same crowded side of the reflation trade. This week, global equities, emerging market bonds, commodities, and most currencies were rocked by heavy selling pressure. Those borrowing in yen to leverage higher-yielding currencies in, for example, New Zealand or Sweden, had their heads handed to them. The reflation bet definitely had some air kicked out of it. And many believing, with two months to go, that they had great years in the bag are now recalling that sick 2008 feeling. It’s a reasonable bet that heightened uncertainty and market volatility have returned and will be sticking around a while.
www.prudentbear.com/index.php/...bblebulletinview?art_id=10303
Bubbles are normal and non-bubble times are depressions!
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